China's Economic Development
China's Economic Development
China's Economic Development
Lee Pei May is Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at the
International Islamic University of Malaysia. Her research focuses on China’s
political economy, US‑China geopolitical competition, and Malaysia‑China
relations. Her published work includes US‑China relations: trade war and the
quest for global hegemony.
Routledge Research on Asian Development
2 Theoretical Frameworks 13
2.1 Introduction 13
2.2 On the Idea of Catch‑Up 13
2.2.1 Modernisation Theory 14
2.2.2 Dependency Theory 18
2.2.3 Theory of Uneven and Combined Development 24
2.3 Expectations of China’s Developmental Outcomes 28
2.4 China’s Developmental Model 31
2.4.1 Modernisation Theory 32
2.4.2 Developmental State Theory 34
2.5 Expectations of Chinese Development Model 40
2.6 Conclusion 41
8 Conclusion 171
8.1 Introduction 171
8.2 Developmental Catch‑Up in China 172
8.3 China Development Model 178
8.4 Potential Challenges to China’s Catch‑Up 186
8.5 Conclusion 189
References 191
Index 223
Figures and Tables
Figures
3.1 China’s Balance of Trade (USD Million) 49
4.1 China’s Share of World GDP (%) 70
4.2 Number of Poor Living under USD1.90 a day (millions) 72
4.3 Average Real GDP Growth among Major Global Economies:
2008–2011 (percent) 76
5.1 Illiteracy Rate for Population Aged 15 and Over
(% of Population) 117
Tables
3.1 Length of China’s Transportation Network (1,000 km) 56
4.1 Level of GDP Per Capita of China, OECD, and G7 Countries 73
Acknowledgements
DOI: 10.4324/9781003344186-1
2 Key Debates on China’s Development
had happened due to the Great Leap Forward, it should be emphasised that
there was some form of development before the reform in 1978 as discussed
in Chapter 3, though the growth was not as phenomenal as experienced by
China in the last two to three decades. China was able to generate a surplus
from its trade with other countries before its reform, which gave rise to high
savings and a modest amount of foreign reserves. I argue in Chapter 3 that
the growth before the reform and opening up had helped to lay the founda
tion for China’s industrialisation in the later years—a point which was often
underappreciated by many.
After decades of virtually closed economy, under the leadership of reformist
leader Deng Xiaoping, China in 1978 boldly took a step towards reform and
opening to the outside world. The result of the reforms was nothing short of
amazing with China scoring double‑digit growth rates for many years. Fol
lowing the reform and opening up, China has depended on both foreign trade
and foreign investment for the development of its economy (Lin, 2012a). In
2016, China received close to USD 175 billion of Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI), down from USD 242.49 billion in 2015 (World Bank, 2016a). Despite
the decline in inflows of FDI in 2016, the United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that China was still the world’s
third‑largest recipient of FDI (UNCTAD, 2017).
What was peculiar was that while Hong Kong is basically a part of China,
investments coming from Hong Kong are still considered foreign investments.
Tracing the source of capital in Hong Kong is complicated because part of this
capital is thought to be channelled via Hong Kong from Taiwan and Main
land China for different reasons (Wei, 1996). This situation suggests that it
was intranational capital rather than international capital that has contributed
most to the economy of China because inflows of FDI from Hong Kong into
China remain the largest (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2016). Addi
tionally, overseas Chinese use their cultural and linguistic links to gain favour
able preferential treatment in the region where they trace their ancestry (Wei,
1996). This is not only a form of domestic investment but is also an important
distinct characteristic of FDI in China that should be highlighted.
The study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) explained that FDI
yields many benefits, but most importantly, it provides additional benefit that
was not found in other form of capital flows, e.g., it was not able to leave the
host country easily, particularly during a crisis (Loungani & Razin, 2001).
The resilience of such capital proves to be important for developing coun
tries. Southeast Asian countries that depend on non‑FDI capital suffered more
severely as compared to East Asian countries during the Asian Financial Crisis.
The long‑term investment nature of FDI helps to develop human capital and
technology in the host countries. Since the reforms, data point that the form
of capital flows into China was predominantly FDI except before the early
1990s when foreign loans and portfolio investments were the largest contribu
tors to China’s foreign investment (National Bureau Statistics of China, 2014;
Wei, 1996).
Key Debates on China’s Development 3
has undergone impressive economic growth since its reform and opening up
in the late 1970s, they disagree on whether these achievements could be trans
lated to China’s catching up with developed countries. In general, there are
two perspectives formulated differently on the issue of China’s catch‑up. The
first perspective comes largely from economists, particularly those from Gold
man Sachs, who theorise a rise of emerging powers, notably China. These
economists are optimistic that China will lead future global growth (Goldman
Sachs, 2010). The growing influence of China is said to have perpetuated
South‑South trade which has allowed the South to “decouple” from depend
ence on the West (Kiely, 2015, p. 2). Reports by international organisations,
notably the United Nations, henceforth UN (2015), and Organisation for
Economic Co‑operation and Development, henceforth OECD (2010), fur
ther support the trend of income convergence between high‑income nations
and emerging countries.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) estimates that in 2050, China and
India would be the world’s two largest economies in terms of GDP at Pur
chasing Power Parity (PPP) (PwC, 2017). It is noteworthy that during the
2000s, China and India have grown “three to four times the OECD average”
(OECD, 2010, p. 4). Therefore, there is evidence for the optimistic view of
China converging with the developed nations in the sense of catching up,
specifically during and after the 2008 crisis. This is especially so when the
estimated year that China could possibly overtake the US as the largest econ
omy has fast‑forwarded 14 years to 2027. Such projections once again rein
forced the optimism of China catching up and overtaking the US (O’Neill &
Stupnytska, 2009).
Another perspective found in Chinese development literature is that
China’s exceptional growth in the past does not automatically translate to
catching up with the developed nations, specifically with the US (Lieberthal,
2010; Panitch & Gindin, 2013). Despite viewing China’s growth optimisti
cally, Panitch and Gindin (2013) maintain that the global capitalist order is
still led by America. As industrial exports were mainly produced by foreign
firms and joint ventures, some scholars argue that China’s economic domi
nance has been overstated. They argue that China is still lagging in technology
and remains in need of what the US can offer. Therefore, investments by US
Multinational Companies (MNCs) such as Microsoft and International Busi
ness Machines Corporation (IBM) are more significant than the first wave of
investments in China, which were labour‑intensive in nature (Panitch & Gin
din, 2013). Most importantly, the model of rapid catch‑up pursued by China
has had profound environmental implications, which will need to be dealt with
quite urgently. In a similar vein, Liebertal (2010) maintains that although the
reforms led to impressive growth rates, the GDP per capita of China is still rel
atively low compared to the US. Furthermore, both Hardy and Budd (2012)
and Liebertal (2010) argue that the US has long been leading the race in
technological development, whereas China has just begun to make progress.
Key Debates on China’s Development 5
the belief that high economic growth not translated into enlarging people’s
capabilities is meaningless. Furthermore, according to the Human Develop
ment Report by the UNDP (1996, p. 1), “human development is the end—
economic growth a means”. In layman’s terms, this means that the purpose of
growth is to improve people’s lives. This process of translating growth into
development may not happen spontaneously.
There are many cases whereby countries that achieve considerable success
in their economic growth have lower life expectancy than countries that have
less economic growth. Referring to the work of Amartya Sen (1988), the
study shows that China had USD 310 per capita GNP with 69‑year life expec
tancy in 1984, but South Africa with a higher GNP per capita (USD 2340)
unexpectedly had a shorter life expectancy of only 54 years. Many other vari
ables that could also possibly influence the living conditions should be taken
into account. Despite this, Sen (1988) agrees that a good economic founda
tion is essential to the general well‑being of humans. Sen’s idea was affirmed
by the Human Development Report in 1996. It reported that more economic
growth is required as we step into the 21st century, but that growth ought
to be channelled into improving people’s living conditions. Only then can
countries achieve real development. The Human Development Report pub
lished in 2010 further found that “there is a strong relation between national
levels of income and national levels of health and education” (UNDP, 2010,
pp. 47–48). It was found that this is also applicable at the individual and
household levels. Overall, the HDI is essential to capture the multi‑faceted
nature of development. The results in terms of HDI can also help countries to
design policies more effectively, especially policies towards the eradication of
poverty, one of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set by the UN
and now replaced by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The concept of development has evolved over the years, and when dis
cussing development in general terms, the concept of human development is
much more well‑received. However, as indicated, this book assesses Chinese
development using theoretical frameworks built upon existing development
theories, and as such, it is more appropriate to use the concept of development
as defined by these theories as found in political economy literature. In general,
the political economy literature defines “development” as “something that oc
curs in the developing world, describing the processes by which poorer coun
tries catch up with richer, developed, countries” (Kiely, 2007a, p. 9). This idea
of development was popularised post‑1945. The root of the idea, however,
dates back to the 18th century and was characterised by debates about mo
dernity and progress (Kiely, 2007a). Post‑development theorists would argue
that this concept of development is Eurocentric (Willis, 2005). Nevertheless,
according to Barnett (1988, p. 179), Weber believes a development concept
which is ascribed with values is not a major problem if the “form of the argu
ment, the definitions of the concepts, the method of measurement, is made
clear to others”. Concurring with Weber’s position that a concept ascribed
with values is less of a problem if clearly presented, this book aligns with the
8 Key Debates on China’s Development
concept of development used in the main political economy literature after the
Second World War. In that sense, development generally refers to the process
of catching up of poorer countries with richer and more advanced countries
(Kiely, 2007a). Likewise, such a conceptualisation of development is also one
that is widely adopted in the Chinese development literature. However, there
is minimal literature that discusses the operationalisation of catch‑up, which
makes it an abstract concept. In essence, the operationalisation of catch‑up
would require a comparison of the level of development of China with devel
oped countries.
Therefore, this book will assess China’s level of development in terms of its
economic progress and the advancement of technology in relation to devel
oped countries, especially the US. The economic progress of China is assessed
by economic indicators such as GDP and GDP per capita, trade balance, total
amount of foreign reserves, household income, poverty rate, and other related
indicators. When discussing the developmental catch‑up of China, I will also
assess the level of technological advancement by examining Chinese Research
and Development (R&D) expenditure, the number of patents Chinese firms
produce, domestic value‑added content in trade, and other related indicators.
A large improvement in productivity is closely related to a country’s techno
logical prowess. Therefore, Total Factor Productivity (TFP) is an important
indicator for evaluating Chinese technological advancement.
remarkable. However, there are still doubts about whether the impressive
economic figures reflect China’s catch‑up with developed countries. The sec
ond debate arises from the mixed opinions of scholars regarding China’s eco
nomic development model. Certain scholars have associated the China model
with the East Asian Model or Developmental State Model (Arrighi, 2007;
Boltho & Weber, 2009), but others tend to disagree with this association.
Based on the two key debates, there are five research sub‑questions that
need to be addressed. The first research sub‑question, “Is there economic
development in China?” is addressed through the lenses of Modernisation
Theory and Dependency Theory. The second research sub‑question, “Is
there developmental catch‑up in China?” is addressed through the lenses of
Modernisation Theory and the Theory of Uneven and Combined Develop
ment. As for the third research sub‑question, “Is Chinese political economy
capitalist?” no relevant development theories could be used to assess the
question. Therefore, the third research sub‑question is addressed through
the assessment of work reports of the Chinese government, speeches of
Chinese leaders and other scholarly literature. The fourth research sub‑
question, “If Chinese political economy is capitalist, what variety of capital
ism it is?” is addressed through the lens of Modernisation Theory and De
velopmental State Theory. The fifth research sub‑question, “What are the
potential challenges that might hinder China’s full catch‑up?” is addressed
using scholarly articles, news reports, and policy documents. As this book
is qualitative in nature, the main method employed to achieve the objective
is document analysis.
This book derived other essential data from the website of the National
Bureau of Statistics of China. Specifically, this book draws data from various
years of the China Statistical Yearbook found on the website. This includes data
ranging from basic statistics on science and technology activities to foreign
trade and economic cooperation with other countries. To compare China’s
level of development with other countries, this book also uses the World Bank
database for aggregate time‑series data that allows cross‑country comparison.
The China Household Finance Survey conducted by Southwestern University
of Finance and Economics in Chengdu with Mr. Gan Li of Texas A&M Uni
versity further complemented data from the Statistical Yearbook. This survey
collects household‑level data which was used to measure and estimate the Gini
coefficient of rural and urban areas.
This book also draws information from reports produced by intergovern
mental organisations such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO), IMF,
OECD, and UNCTAD as well as from international financial institutions such
as PwC, Deloitte, and Goldman Sachs. This book refers to World Investment
Reports for various years published by UNCTAD for data concerning China’s
trade and investment. Since the Chinese economy has always been bench
marked against the US, this book has also identified the opinions and evalua
tions of various US government agencies towards China and its development
by examining authoritative reports or press releases by the CIA, United States
Trade Representative, US Department of State, and US‑China Economic and
Security Review Commission.
I also studied and drew extensively on speeches of Deng Xiaoping, com
piled in Selected Works of Deng Xiaoping across three volumes to understand
the underlying meaning of “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”. Subse
quently, how other top national leaders such as former President Jiang Zem
ing, President Hu Jintao, and current President Xi Jinping justify the concept
of “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” was also examined.
and how it has entered a new era. Additionally, we delve into scholarly debates
about the nature of the Chinese political economy, ultimately concluding that
it is capitalist. Chapter 6 then seeks to answer the question of what variety
of capitalism defines China’s political economy. Moving on, Chapter 7 dis
cusses various potential challenges that might impede China from achieving
full catch‑up. Finally, the last chapter summarises the findings of this book.
Note
1 CPC will be used interchangeably with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
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