UBS Equity Pack 2022
UBS Equity Pack 2022
UBS Equity Pack 2022
Equity Picks
WM CM Equities
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
content & price hikes may spur recovery) & Applied As of 08 Apr 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information, including 1
but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Key Changes
Netflix (NFLX US) Applied Mat. (AMAT US)
Stock has fallen -47% from peak after Stock fell -16% lately over concerns that
guidance fell short amidst the broader component shortages & China lockdown
tech selldown. Expectations are low. could hurt near-term growth.
Content pipeline is improving as filming The longer-term outlook is good as each
has resumed. This could help to spur a region plans to beef up their chip supply
pick-up in new subscribers. chain for security reasons.
Recent price hikes (10-11%) should start This wil benefit wafer equipment makers
to show through while content costs such as ASML and AMAT.
may begin to moderate by 3Q22.
Stock offers >30% upside to target
There is 60% upside to target price. price.
Share price has rallied +17% in the past CIO downgraded Financials to Neutral as
month and is looking overbought. business sentiment & growth could be
affected by inflation concerns.
There is only +15% upside to our target
($700), hence not as compelling. Happy In the near term, rising rates will benefit
to revisit if it falls to $580. banks, but this may be negated by the
concerns of an economic slowdown.
Overall, still a great stock. Covid sales
may slow but can be offset by a pick-up Within the sector, BAC is our key pick as
in the core lab supply business. it is the most sensitive to rising rates.
M&A and buybacks can provide support It is also less dependent on IB, WM &
given strong cashflows. trading where activites are slowing.
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information, including 2
but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
AIA 1299 HK HKD 82.3 127.0 (21.5) 199 59 BUY 110.0 33.7 17.8 5.7 17.3 24.1
ALPHABET INC-A GOOGL US USD 2,665.8 1,766.4 (12.0) 738 43 BUY 3,900.0 46.3 26.2 26.0 21.4 31.4
AMAZON.COM INC AMZN US USD 3,089.2 1,571.2 (18.1) 1,543 45 BUY 4,625.0 49.7 5.1 (3.1) 46.9 136.6
APPLIED MATERIAL AMAT US USD 120.0 106.0 (28.2) 907 39 NEUTRAL 160.0 33.4 26.7 20.7 14.7 17.4
BOOKING HOLDINGS BKNG US USD 2,167.4 88.6 (20.2) 197 44 BUY 2,775.0 28.0 15.7 23.0 24.5 191.4
CHINA LONGYUAN-H 916 HK HKD 17.2 26.4 (15.2) 171 60 BUY 30.0 74.6 16.1 (14.0) 15.7 11.5
LVMH MOET HENNE MC FP EUR 631.7 347.0 (16.7) 451 48 BUY 807.0 27.8 18.7 25.1 23.9 32.7
MASTERCARD INC-A MA US USD 352.3 344.3 (12.3) 719 50 BUY 463.0 31.4 44.1 48.0 34.4 41.0
MICROSOFT CORP MSFT US USD 297.0 2,226.3 (15.1) 879 46 BUY 360.0 21.2 35.5 33.4 31.4 31.8
MSCI INC MSCI US USD 506.5 41.2 (25.5) 1,319 50 BUY 692.0 36.6 38.8 45.1 44.2 47.7
NETFLIX INC NFLX US USD 355.9 158.1 (49.2) 2,396 41 BUY 575.0 61.6 16.5 (0.4) 31.4 120.4
TENCENT 700 HK HKD 358.8 439.9 (42.6) 743 44 BUY 460.0 28.2 0.7 32.2 21.7 51.2
TSMC 2330 TT TWD 560.0 500.6 (18.6) 580 39 BUY 810.0 44.6 38.0 17.4 18.3 21.7
As of 11 Apr 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information, including 3
but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
• Shows are returning from the gap last year with Share Cap (m shr) 444 UBS TP 575.0 52-Hi 701.0
Free Float 98% % diff 61.6 52-Lo 329.8
hits such as Bridgerton & Stranger Things. Market Cap ($m) 158,108 Price Chg. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr
Market Cap (US$m) 158,108 Absolute (35.9) (3.2) 146.5
• Price hikes of 10-11% in 1Q22 could help to Daily Vol 3m (m shr) 8.3 Industry Movies & Entertainment
support earnings and mitigate any impact from the Daily Val 3m (US$m) 3,305 Major S/Holder CAPITAL GROUP COMPAN (13.23%)
that actual users may be doing better. EPS Growth (%) 46.9 84.5 (1.9) 27.4 21.1
P/E (x) 56.8 30.8 31.4 24.7 20.4
• Margin recovery. Margins fell sharply in 4Q21 as P/B (x) 14.2 10.0 7.9 6.3 5.0
Yield (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
content costs spiked when filming resumed. Profits ROE (%) 29.6 38.0 27.6 27.9 28.1
may recover in 2H22 as production normalises. Net Gearing (%) 93.1 76.3 - - -
Source : Bloomberg
• Decent upside to our target price of $575.
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information, including 4
but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Netflix Inc.
1 Mgmt. guided for just 2.5m net adds in 1Q21, which is not 2 Margins plunged in 4Q21 as content costs spiked when filming
aggressive. Recent data suggests that users are holding up. resumed. Profits could recover in 2H22 as production normalises.
27.4
30
25.2
20
23.5
22.1
15.8
25
20.4
18
18.7
16
16.6
20
14.4
14.3
14
10.1
12.1
12.0
11.8
12 15
9.6
10.2
8.8
8.5
8.3
9.7
10
8.4
8.2
7.5
6.8
7.0
8 10
5.2
4.6
4.4
6 4.0 5
2.7
2.5
2.2
4
2 1.6 0
0
Netflix
Source: UBS
3 Netflix raised its standard pricing from $13.99 to $15.49 in 1Q22. 4 Despite the downgrades, there is ample upside to consensus
This could help to drive ARPU higher. target price
800
11.53
12.00
Netflix
700
11.13
11.06
11.02
11.50
10.95
10.80
600
10.75
10.50 400
300
10.00
200
9.50 100 Current Upside : 38.4% Avg Upside : 10.5%
9.00 0
1-15 1-16 1-17 1-18 1-19 1-20 1-21 1-22
Q418
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q221
Q321
Q421
Q119
Q121
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Applied fell 15-16% recently over concerns that the 11 April 2022
component shortages & lockdowns in China could Applied Materials Inc USD NEUTRAL
hurt demand. Stock now offers 33% upside. Bloomberg AMAT US Price 120.0 Beta 1.5
• Near-term hit. Along with other semi stocks, Share Cap (m shr) 883 UBS TP 160.0 52-Hi 167.1
Free Float 100% % diff 33.4 52-Lo 114.4
AMAT fell over concerns that lockdowns in China Market Cap ($m) 105,972 Price Chg. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr
could affect demand for smartphones & PCs. Market Cap (US$m) 105,972 Absolute (13.6) 182.5 214.0
Daily Vol 3m (m shr) 8.9 Industry Semiconductor Equipment
• Long term fine. Order book should stay strong Daily Val 3m (US$m) 1,196 Major S/Holder VANGUARD GROUP (8.28%)
as each region is planning to build their own chip YE 10/2021 - USD 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E
making facilities to ensure national security. Sales ($m) 17,202 23,063 26,501 29,390 28,663
Net Profit ($m) 3,619 5,888 7,238 8,212 7,887
• Key leaders. Along with ASML, this will benefit EPS ($) 3.95 6.47 8.17 9.41 9.33
Applied as it is one of the leading providers of EPS Growth (%) 36.7 63.8 26.3 15.2 (0.8)
P/E (x) 30.4 18.5 14.7 12.7 12.9
wafer fabrication equipment. P/B (x) 10.4 8.7 7.9 6.7 5.5
Yield (x) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0
• Decent upside. P/E has fallen to 13-15x with ROE (%) 38.5 51.6 55.5 52.3 41.4
33% upside to UBS target price. Net Gearing (%) (0.3) 2.4 - - -
Source : Bloomberg
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information, including 6
but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Applied Materials
1 Demand to stay strong as each region is planning to build their 2 This has led to a strong jump in Applied’s order book, which will
own chip-making facilities to ensure national security help to support revenue growth in 2022
15.0 6
4
10.0
2
5.0
0
0.0 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
'00
'01
'02
'03
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As of 11 Apr 2022
Semicon System Service Display
Source: UBS
3 Structural growth from EV, AI, IOT, metaverse and data centers 4 The recent sell-off has opened up attractive opportunities in
will help to drive future demand Applied’s share price
AMAT - Systems Sales by Industry (US$b) AMAT 200 APPLIED MATERIAL - Target Price (USD)
5.0
180
4.0 160 Share Price : $120.0
140 Target Price : $173.0
3.0 120
2.0 100
80
1.0 60
40
0.0 20 Current Upside : 44.2% Avg Upside : 20.9%
Q118
Q218
Q318
Q418
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q121
Q221
Q321
Q421
Q122
0
1-15 1-16 1-17 1-18 1-19 1-20 1-21 1-22
Foundry / Logic DRAM Flash Memory Share Price Target Price Bloomberg
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Equity Picks
AIA (1299 HK) Amazon (AMZN US) Booking (BKNG US)
FY21 new business (up 20%+) is doing AWS Cloud, a major profit contributor, Booking will benefit from the recovery in
better than peers (down 20%+). continues to grow strongly. global travel as it is one of the leading
online travel platforms.
Ongoing China expansion is a key driver Rising energy prices & wages will lead to
for growth , with promising outlook in higher delivery costs but can be offset by Apart from hotels, it is expanding into
Tianjin, Shijiazhuang & Sichuan. a drop in covid-related expenses. alternative accommodation, as well as
air travel & car rental.
China’s covid lockdown is a near-term Amazon has invested heavily into capex
risk, but any HK-China border reopening over last two years & will start to reap It has also rolled out royalty programs to
will help to revive the HK business. the benefits of greater efficiencies. encourage repeat visitors.
$10b buyback will help to support the Upcoming 20-for-1 stock split (ex-date Earnings growth should stay strong due
share price. 27-May) should provide support. to the low base from the pandemic
Alphabet (GOOG US) Applied Mat. (AMAT US) Longyuan (916 HK)
Ad demand (70% sales) is doing well as Stock fell -16% lately over concerns that China’s largest wind farm operator with
Google is less affected by the IOS privacy component shortages & China lockdown new projects hitting grid parity.
changes, unlike the smaller platforms. could hurt near-term growth. Govt policies are supportive as carbon
Youtube (11% sales) continues to grow But longer-term outlook is good as each neutrality is a key goal highlighted at the
rapidly, while Cloud (8% sales) is poised region plans to beef up their chip supply 2022 NPC meetings.
to turn profitable soon. chain for security reasons. A potential repayment of long-overdue
The upcoming 20-for-1 stock split in mid This wil benefit wafer equipment makers renewable subsidies to operators could
2022 will provide support. such as ASML and AMAT. accelerate the renewable build-out.
Valuation reasonable at 22x P/E with Stock offers >30% upside to target Green electricity pricing & carbon credit
>40% upside to target price. price. trading are key catalysts for growth.
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information, including 8
but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Equity Picks
LVMH (MC FP) Microsoft (MSFT US) Netflix (NFLX US)
Buyers of luxury good are less sensitive Earnings are highly resilient as >70% of Stock has fallen -47% from peak after
to price inflation. revenue are from software subscriptions, guidance fell short amidst the broader
where it recently raised pricing. tech selldown. Expectations are low.
Covid lockdown in China (25% sales) is
a near-term risk, but past experience has Azure, the cloud division, is now 34% of Content pipeline is improving as filming
shown the demand eventually returns. sales & continues to do well. has resumed. This could help to spur a
The recovery in global travel will help to Microsoft is sitting on $70b of near cash, pick-up in new subscribers.
rejuvenate duty-free sales. can support dividends & buybacks. Recent price hikes (10-11%) should start
P/E has fallen to 24x, which is below the P/E is at the 5-year average of 32x. Stock to show through while content costs
5-year average of 33x. There is >25% still offer >20% upside. may begin to moderate by 3Q22.
upside to target price. There is >60% upside to target price.
Mastercard benefits from the rebound in Earnings are resilient as 74% of sales are Tencent’s diverse revenue streams from
global travel & increased spending from from index subscriptions & 24% from gaming & social will help to cushion the
the economic re-opening. asset-based fees – both are recurring. weakness in advertising revenue.
Near term, a rise in marketing spent may The growing popularity of ETFs & rising Overseas expansion for gaming should
temporarily depress profits, but this can demand for new ESG & Climate indices help counter slower growth in China.
be offset by a pick-up in transactions. will help to expand the business.
Regulatory uncertainty over social media
Long term, the shift to digital payments Despite the 25% pull back, P/E is still not & payments are near-term risks.
will continue to drive growth. cheap at 44x.
Valuation is inexpensive at 23x FY22 P/E,
Stock now trades at 34x P/E (below 5yr There is >35% upside to target price. close to 10-year trough.
avg. 41x) and offer >30% upside.
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information, including 9
but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Equity Picks
TSMC (2330 TT)
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but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Company Pack
WM CM Equities
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
• Low penetration. Life insurance penetration in Asia remains pretty low at just 2-4%, esp. PRICE HISTORY
in China. The industry is expected to enjoy strong growth, driven by rising income, increased
awareness for protection and favourable demographic changes. AIA GROUP LTD - Price (HKD)
120
• China is a key market and accounts for 32% of new businesses. Apart from organic growth
via expansion into more cities, AIA has struck at 15-year distribution partnership with BEA 100
and acquired a 24.99% stake in China Post Life to expand its bancassurance channels. 80
• Health ecosystem. AIA has built up an extensive health and wellness network across the 60
region, covering health monitoring and assessment, prevention, diagnostic and treatment 40
across both online and offline channels. This will help to reduce the cost of protection. 20
As of 11 Mar 2022
• Catalysts. The lockdown has impacted new businesses in 2020 but demand has rebounded 0
quickly once the lockdown eased. The re-opening of the HK-China border will also help. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
AIA has diversified exposure across Asia with a focus on recurring protection products REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
AIA (USD)
35.0
30.0
Net Premium
25.0 Op. Income
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
AIA As of 10 Feb 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
3 The lockdown has hurt new businesses in 2020 but demand 4 AIA has established a strong health & wellness ecosystem
has recovered quickly once lockdowns are eased across Asia, covering both online and offline channels
2,000
1,000
0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
HK China Thai S'pore M'sia Other AIA
AIA
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Amazon.com
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Amazon.com
Amazon is the world's largest online retailer while Amazon Web Services (AWS) is the biggest Symbol AMZN US ISIN US0231351067
cloud service provider. The company operates as both a direct seller and a platform for third- Currency USD Exchange NASDAQ
party sellers to distribute their products. To support its operations, Amazon has built a vast
global network of fulfillment centers. Jeff Bezos is the founder and executive Chairman with a Website Amazon.com
10.57% stake. Based in Washington, Amazon has about 1.3m employees. Industry Internet & Direct Marketing Retail
• Rise of e-commerce. Amazon is poised to benefit from the rapid growth of e-commerce, PRICE HISTORY
where the penetration rate is still below 25-30%. US remains its core market (60% sales).
AMAZON.COM INC - Price (USD)
• Leading cloud platform. AWS is among the leaders in cloud services globally. Cloud makes 4,000
up 12% of FY20 revenue but contributes to 60% of operating profits.
• In the Prime. Amazon has built up an extensive logistics network in the US and can do one- 3,000
day delivery in most major cities, which not many other retailers can match. It has also a big
base of 180m Prime members – where the average spending is much higher. 2,000
• Solid cash flow. Amazon generates more than US$60B of operating cash flow each year 1,000
and have been aggressively investing for future growth. There is potential to return cash once
As of 11 Mar 2022
the expansion stabilises. 0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Amazon has built a large global ecosystem which cannot be replicated easily REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
600.0
500.0 Sales
400.0 Op. Income
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
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As of 11 Mar 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Amazon.com
1 E-commerce penetration in the US is still relatively low at 20-25% 2 E-commerce is big in revenue, but the profits are generated from
and has plenty of room to grow Cloud, Subscription (Prime) & Advertising (Others)
3 Cloud drives the bulk of profits and it will continue to grow 4 Operating cashflow has improved in recent years and is mainly
rapidly as more businesses go online spent on expanding the business
Amazon - Op. Income by Segment ($b) 150.0 AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN US) - Cashflow
25
Amazon
20 100.0
15 50.0
10
0.0
5
0 (50.0)
(5) (100.0)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
'21E
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Operating Cashflow Dividend + Buyback
North America International AWS (Cloud) Investing Cashflow Other Financing Bloomberg
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Amazon.com
1 Cloud and Subscription continue to do well, but E-commerce sales 2 The lockdown in 2020 led to a surge in volumes, but consumers
are slower this year following the boom from last year are buying less this year as they venture back outside
Amazon - Sales by Segment ($b) Paid Units (% YoY Growth)
60 57
140
Amazon Amazon
120 50 46 47 44
100 40
32
80 30 27 28 28 27 25
24 24 23 22 22 22
60 17 15 18
20 14 15
40 10 8
10
20
0
0
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Q116
Q216
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Online Physical 3rd Party Subscription Cloud Others WW Paid Units (% YoY Growth)
3 Shipping costs have risen due to social distancing measures, labor 4 The higher shipping costs have affected profits for E-commerce,
tightness and supply chain disruptions but Cloud (AWS) is performing well
Amazon Amazon
22.9
22.7
22.4
21.9
21.4
21.3
25
20.4
8
19.9
18.9
18.0
17.0
16.8
16.6
16.2
16.1
15.7
20 6
15.2
15.0
14.9
14.3
13.2
13.2
15 4
10 2
5 0
0 (2)
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q117
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q118
Q218
Q318
Q418
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q121
Q221
Q321
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q218
Q318
Q418
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q221
Q321
Q116
Q117
Q118
Q119
Q121
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
• Leading player. Booking.com is the clear leader among online travel agencies and has one PRICE HISTORY
of the most downloaded travel apps globally. It has a strong presence in Europe & is making
in-roads into US via Priceline and Asia via Agoda. BOOKING HOLDINGS INC - Price (USD)
3,000
• Connected trips. Apart from accommodation, it is bundling in car rental & air tickets. This
may lower overall margins but will help to drive topline growth. The company has also rolled 2,000
out a loyalty program called Genius to encourage repeat customers.
• Expansions. Besides hotels, it is adding alternative accommodations (homes & apartments), 1,000
which now make up 29% of bookings. It has also recently made acquisitions to strengthen
its presence in flight bookings and the U.S. As of 29 Mar 2022
0
• Risks. 1) competition from Google & AirBnB; 2) large hotel groups are reaching out directly 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
to clients via their own websites. 3) covid disruptions. 4) regulations on data transfer & tax.
Booking Holdings operate six leading online travel platforms REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
19.0
Sales
14.0 Op. Income
9.0
4.0
(1.0) '00
'01
'02
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As of 29 Mar 2022
Booking.com.
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
3 Sales were affected during the pandemic but have started to 4 Gross bookings were growing consistently until the pandemic
recover as global travel returns hit. They are expected to return to pre-covid levels by 2023.
0.0
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Agency Merchant Ads & Others Booking Agency Merchant Booking
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
3 Cashflows were affected during the pandemic but are poised 4 Covid disruptions are less of a threat now, while regulations,
to recover ahead as earnings improve competition and cyber attacks are ongoing issues.
15,000 BOOKING HOLDINGS (BKNG US) - Cashflow Competition. Large hotel groups are reaching out directly to
customers via their own websites & loyalty programs, while search
10,000
engines such as Google is another source of competition.
5,000 Travel disruptions. The pandemic has severely disrupted the
travel industry. It is unclear if the threat of covid is over.
0
Regulations. Tightening regulations over data transfer (out of
(5,000) Europe) and user privacy could affect the company’s operations
while rising global taxation may hurt its earnings.
(10,000)
Cybersecurity. As an online platform, Booking is vulnerable to
'22E
'23E
'00A
'01A
'02A
'03A
'04A
'05A
'06A
'07A
'08A
'09A
'10A
'11A
'12A
'13A
'14A
'15A
'16A
'17A
'18A
'19A
'20A
'21A
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
• Beneficiary of China’s green initiatives. China’s ambition to reach “carbon neutrality” by PRICE HISTORY
2060 will pave a long runway ahead for renewables. The mix of electricity generation from
renewables is projected to double from 9% to 17% between 2020 to 2025e. CHINA LONGYUAN POWER GROUP-H - Price
25 (HKD)
• Strong expansion to drive growth. Longyuan plans to expand its capacity from 22GW to
30GW between 2020-2025e (split 30/70 between wind/solar), while there is potential for 20
asset injection of 15GW wind capacity from its parent company upon its A-share listing. 15
• Hitting grid-parity. More projects are hitting grid parity & can generate reasonable returns 10
without subsidies, thus alleviating the concern of subsidy reliance. The injection of RMB89b
by MoF into a subsidy fund will help to boost legacy subsidy repayment to Longyuan. 5
As of 11 Mar 2022
• Risks. 1) failure to collect unpaid subsidies; 2) lower utilization hours due to unpredictable 0
weather conditions; and 3) unexpected on-grid tariff cuts. 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Longyuan’s power generation facilities are well spread across China REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
40.0
Sales
30.0 Op. Income
20.0
10.0
0.0
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
Longyuan As of 11 Mar 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
BP Statistical Review of World Energy July 2021, NEA of China, Longyuan, CHN Energy NEA of China, Longyuan
3 Wind power is the key profit driver for Longyuan, accounting 4 Free cash flow will remain negative due to the aggressive
for the lion’s share of total operating profits build-out of more wind power capacities ahead
Longyuan - Operating Profit (RMB b) 40.0 CHINA LONGYUAN-H (916 HK) - Cashflow
12
30.0
10 20.0
8 10.0
6 0.0
(10.0)
4
(20.0)
2
(30.0)
0 (40.0)
'06A
'07A
'08A
'09A
'10A
'11A
'12A
'13A
'14A
'15A
'16A
'17A
'18A
'19A
'20A
'21E
'22E
'23E
(2)
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Operating Cashflow Dividend + Buyback
Wind Energy Coal Energy Other Energy LongYuan Investing Cashflow Other Financing Bloomberg
Click to edit Master text styles
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
• Secular winner. LVMH plays into several secular trends such as 1) rising consumerism across PRICE HISTORY
developed and emerging markets as wealth increases; 2) propensity for younger consumers to
buy branded goods, partly driven by the influence of social media. LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUI - Price
800 (EUR)
• Diversified. Unlike other luxury players who depend on just 1-2 key brands, LVMH has over
75 prestige brands across several major product categories, which made it more resilient. It is 600
also well diversified across all geographies and is not over-reliant on China (~30% sales).
• Aggregator. Thanks to its immense size and extensive network of >5,400 stores, LVMH has 400
great bargaining power against retail landlords. It also has a strong track record of acquiring
small emerging brands and scaling them up profitably. 200
As of 11 Mar 2022
• Risks. 1) Bernard Arnault (72) remains an important shareholder & driving force of the group; 0
2) China makes up 30% of sales and is prone to anti-luxury or anti-Western sentiment. 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
LVMH owns ~75 prestige brands spanning five major product segments REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
80.0
Sales
60.0 Op. Income
40.0
20.0
0.0
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
Source: eachshoes.com As of 11 Mar 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
France Europe (ex-Fr.) US Wine & Spirits Fashion & Leather Perfumes & Cosmetics
Japan Asia Ex-Jpn Others LVMH Watches & Jewelry Selective Retailing Others LVMH
3 Main profit contributors are Fashion & Leather Goods (64% op. 4 Fashion-&-Leather Goods and Wine-&-Spirits enjoy much higher
profit), followed by Wine & Spirits (15%) margins compared to the other segments
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
3 LVMH's massive size and extensive distribution network gives it a 4 Cashflow generation is strong and has been split between paying
strategic advantange as a brand aggregator dividends and making acquistions of emerging brands
Annualised Revenue 2020 (US$b) 25.0 LVMH MOET HENNE (MC FP) - Cashflow
60 20.0
51
50 15.0
40 10.0
30 5.0
20 15 15 0.0
7 6 5 (5.0)
10 3
0 (10.0)
(15.0)
'21E
'22E
'23E
'00A
'01A
'02A
'03A
'04A
'05A
'06A
'07A
'08A
'09A
'10A
'11A
'12A
'13A
'14A
'15A
'16A
'17A
'18A
'19A
'20A
Bloomberg as of 20 Aug 2021
Operating Cashflow Dividend + Buyback
Investing Cashflow Other Financing Bloomberg
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Mastercard Inc.
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Mastercard Inc.
Mastercard connects consumers, financial institutions, merchants & other partners worldwide, Symbol MA US ISIN US57636Q1040
enabling them to use electronic payments instead of cash and checks. It owns a family of well-
Currency USD Exchange NYSE
known brands, including Mastercard, Maestro and Cirrus. The company operates in over 210
countries covering >150 currencies. As of 2020, it has ~2.3b credit & debit cards in circulation. Website www.mastercard.us
It earns its revenue from processing payment transactions – it does not take credit risks.
Industry Diversified Financial Services
• Going cashless. Digital payment is rapidly displacing cash/cheques, thanks to rising internet PRICE HISTORY
access, strong growth in cross-border payments (e-commerce, travel) and rising penetration is
emerging markets. This will benefit electronic payment networks such as Mastercard. MASTERCARD INC - A - Price (USD)
500
• Strong moat. Mastercard and Visa are the two dominant card issuers globally (ex-China). It is
not easy to displace them as they have built a massive base of users, merchants and partners 400
over the years, and invested heavily into their IT infrastructure & authorization networks.
300
• Consistent growth. Sales have grown at 13% CAGR from $2.3b in 2003 to $15b in 2020.
Operating margins have held steadily above 50%, even during the pandemic. 200
• Risks. Blockchains are potential disruptors but Mastercard may include them in its solutions. 100
As of 11 Mar 2022
Other risks include pressure in interchange rates from regulations & competition.
0
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Mastercard provides the network that connects consumers with banks and merchants REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
25.0
Sales
20.0
Op. Income
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
Source: Company Data As of 11 Mar 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Mastercard Inc.
1 Digital payments are replacing cash and cheque, esp. in Asia and 2 Mastercard & Visa are the two dominant card issuers globally,
EMEA where penetration rates are still low while UnionPay is popular within China
3 Rising contributions from Asia and emerging markets (>30% 4 Cross border fees were hit by the pandemic in 2020 but are
sales) will help to drive growth expected to recover. Other transactions have remained stable.
Mastercard: Gross Dollar Volume (US$tn) Mastercard: Gross Revenue By Fee Type ($b) Mastercard
7.0 30
6.0 25
5.0 20
4.0
15
3.0
10
2.0
1.0 5
0.0 0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
US Canada Europe LatAm AsiaPac, EMEA Mastercard
Domestic Fees Cross Border Fees Processing Fees Others
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Microsoft Corp.
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Microsoft Corp.
Microsoft is the world's largest software company operating in over 190 countries. It is a leader Symbol MSFT US ISIN US5949181045
in various categories such as productivity software (Office 365), operating systems (Windows),
Currency USD Exchange NASDAQ
cloud infrastructure (Azure), gaming (Xbox) and executive search (LinkedIn). A large part of its
revenue is considered mission-critical by its clients and are based of subscriptions, thus giving it a Website www.microsoft.com
strong recurring revenue base. It has >180,000 employees.
Industry Systems Software
• Steady Growth. Thanks to the strong recurring revenue, MSFT has been able grow its sales PRICE HISTORY
steadily at 10% CAGR since 2000 from $23b to $143b, while op. margins have risen to an
MICROSOFT CORP - Price (USD)
impressive 37%. In turn this has driven strong performance in its share price. 400
• Subscriptions. Many of its core offerings such as Office are considered mission-critical and
have shifted to a subscription model. More than two-thirds of revenues are recurring. 300
• Rising Cloud. Corporations are digitizing and shifting their data to the Cloud. Azure is the 200
#2 player in Cloud globally after AWS. Cloud now makes up 34% of overall revenue.
• Strong cash flows. With minimal capex and a strong recurring revenue, cashflow is highly 100
positive. The company has over $70b of near-cash and has been allocating more towards As of 11 Mar 2022
buybacks & dividends. 0
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Microsoft provides an entire suite of solutions to help companies run their businesses REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
200.0
Sales
150.0 Op. Income
100.0
50.0
0.0
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
Microsoft
As of 11 Mar 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Microsoft Corp.
1 More than 70% of revenue is recurring, driven by its software 2 Thanks to its mission critical nature, software revenue has grown
solutions for Windows, Office & Servers consistently throughout the years
Other
LinkedIn 7% 200 Microsoft - Revenue
Microsoft
6%
Enterprise Office
4% 24% 150
Search Ads
5% 100
Microsoft
Xbox Revenue
2021 50
9%
Server 0
Windows 31% '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
14% Office Server Windows Xbox
Search Ads Enterprise LinkedIn Other
Microsoft Source: Company Data
3 Cloud has been a strong growth driver, while corporate 4 Profits have improved in recent years as the Cloud business has
digitization is another major structural trend started to achieve economies of scale
Microsoft Microsoft
Microsoft - Segmental Revenue Microsoft - Operating Profit
200 80
70
150 60
50
100 40
30
50 20
10
0 0
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Personal Computing Productivity & Biz Processes Cloud Personal Computing Productivity & Biz Processes Cloud
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Microsoft Corp.
1 Cloud continues to grow strongly while operating margins have 2 Group margins have improved from 30% to 40% as the Cloud
improved from greater economies of scale business started to contribute
Microsoft
Microsoft - Commercial Cloud Microsoft - Operating Margin (%)
25
45 41.6
38.6 38.8 37.0
20 40
34.4 34.1
32.0
35 29.5 30.1 31.8
15 30
23.7
25
10 19.4
20
5 15
10
0 5
Q117
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q118
Q218
Q318
Q418
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q121
Q221
Q321
Q421
Q122
Q222
0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
Commercial Cloud Revenue Commercial Cloud Gross Profit
Microsoft
Source: UBS Source: Company Data
3 Microsoft continues to generate strong cashflow, which is used 4 The maturity of the enterprise software space, and Microsoft’s
for dividends, buybacks, and acquisitions dominance, may restrict its future growth potential
150.0 MICROSOFT CORP (MSFT US) - Cashflow High valuation. Due to its resilient nature, Microsoft still trades at
a relatively high P/E of 30-33x. This may come under pressure as
100.0 rate rises.
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
MSCI Inc.
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
MSCI Inc.
MSCI produces indices and risk-return portfolio analytics for investment institutions. The firm Symbol MSCI US ISIN US55354G1004
manages >246,000 financial indices used by large asset management firms. It has over 4,500
Currency USD Exchange NASDAQ GS
clients across >95 countries. US makes up 47% of sales, followed by EMEA (37%) & AsiaPac
(16%). About 75% of sales comes from subscription services, while 25% is from asset-based Website www.msci.com
fees. About 97% of revenue is recurring. It has >4,200 employees.
Industry Financial Exchanges & Data
• Highly resilient. Earnings have held up well over time as 74% of revenue is supported by PRICE HISTORY
recurring subscriptions, while 24% comes from asset-based fees – which is also recurring.
Since 2010, sales have grown at 10% CAGR while op. profits grew at 16% CAGR. MSCI INC - Price (USD)
800
• Exceedingly profitable. Op. margins are high at 50% while net margins are 35%. The
business generates ample cashflow. Since it is not capital intensive, most of the surplus cash 600
are used for buybacks & dividends.
• Growth drivers. The core index business is growing at low-double digits due to the rising 400
popularity of ETFs, thematic and factor investing, while ESG & Climate offer new expansion
200
opportunities. MSCI is also branching into Fixed Income, Private Markets and alternatives.
As of 11 Mar 2022
• Risks. 1) rising rates could put pressure on high valuations, 2) challenging financial markets 0
could dampen growth of new subscriptions; 3) regulatory changes; 4) cyber-threats. 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
MSCI provides >4,500 financial institutions with index services & portfolio solutions REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
2.5
Sales
2.0
Op. Income
1.5
1.0
0.5
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
MSCI Inc.
1 Asset Managers & Banks are the largest group of customers, 2 The bulk of revenue is recurring in nature, driven by index
followed by Asset Owners-Consultants and Hedge Funds. subscriptions (74%) and asset-based fees (24%).
3 Index remains the core business at 62% of sales, while ESG & 4 All three major geographical regions continue show growth,
Climate (9%) is driving new growth opportunities. driven by the rise of ETFs, thematic and factor investing.
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
MSCI Inc.
1 The business is highly profitable with gross margins of >80% 2 The firm is targeting long-term revenue growth of low-double
and operating margins improving to >50%. digits and EBITDA growth of low-to-mid teens
3 Op. cashflow is healthy & is mainly directed towards buybacks 4 Key risks lie with its high valuations, which could come under
& dividends as the business is not capital intensive pressure from rising rates
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Netflix Inc.
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Netflix Inc.
Netflix is a provider of on-demand, commercial-free internet streaming media and is available Symbol NFLX US ISIN US64110L1061
globally ex-China. It operates across four key regions :- US-Canada (44% sales), EMEA (33%), Currency USD Exchange NASDAQ
LatAm (12%), and APAC (11%). As of 2021, it has 222m members, split across UCAN (75m),
EMEA (74m), LatAm (40m) and APAC (33m). Revenue is derived largely from subscriptions, Website www.netflix.com
averaging US$11.50 per month. It is based in California with 11,300 employees. Industry Movies & Entertainment
• Instant gratification. Thanks to its anytime-anywhere feature, a broadening content slate PRICE HISTORY
and faster internet speeds, streaming media (27% of US viewing time) is gaining share from
NETFLIX INC - Price (USD)
traditional linear mediums such as broadcast and cable TV. 800
• User expansion. The pandemic has helped to accelerate the user base from 167m in 2019 to
222m by 2021. But it also pulled forward user growth into 2020, at the expense of 2021. 600
• Pricing power. In the last seven years, Netflix has increased the price of its standard plan 400
from US$7.99 to US$15.99 despite the influx of new competition. This is supported by a
growing slate of award-winning contents, which is expanding to include games. 200
As of 07 Apr 2022
• Margin expansion. Operating margins have jumped from 4% to 21% between FY16 and 0
FY21. Both margins & cashflows are expected to improve with greater economies of scale. 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Streaming media is gaining share from linear mediums such as Cable & Broadcast TV REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
As of 07 Apr 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Netflix Inc.
1 Subscriber growth in US has started to plateau but Netflix has 2 Netflix holds the largest market share amongst the video-
continued to add users in Asia, LatAm and EMEA streaming platforms
3 Recent price hikes could help to drive up average revenue per 4 The average subscription in APAC and LatAm is comparatively
user and offset the lower sales mix from Asia lower than US and EMEA due to the forex weakness
Avg Revenue Per User ($/mth) Avg. Revenue per User by Region (US$)
11.74
11.73
11.67
11.53
12.00 16 14.78
Netflix Netflix
11.13
14
11.06
11.02
11.50
10.95
10.87
11.64
10.80
10.75
12
11.00
9.26
10.27
10
10.14
8.14
10.50 8
10.00 6
9.50 4
2
9.00
0
Q418
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q221
Q321
Q421
Q119
Q121
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Netflix Inc.
1 The global lockdown in 2020 has greatly helped to increase user 2 Revenue has grown steadily though operating income remains
adoption, but it also pulled forward the demand from 2021 volatile due to the lumpy production costs
Netflix - User Addition QoQ (m) Netflix - Sales & Op. Income (US$b)
9.0
20 15.8
8.0
18 7.0
16 6.0
14 5.0
10.1
12
9.6
4.0
8.8
8.5
8.3
10
3.0
6.8
8
2.0
4.4
6 4.0
2.7
1.0
2.5
2.2
4
2 1.6 0.0
Q117
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q118
Q218
Q318
Q418
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q121
Q221
Q321
Q421
0
3 Content production was disrupted during the pandemic in 2020, 4 With improving scale, cashflow is expected to turn positive
but filming has since resumed with the re-opening going forward even as production costs stay high
10 7.2 (2,000)
3.8 4.9
5 2.0 2.9 (4,000)
'22E
'23E
'00A
'01A
'02A
'03A
'04A
'05A
'06A
'07A
'08A
'09A
'10A
'11A
'12A
'13A
'14A
'15A
'16A
'17A
'18A
'19A
'20A
'21A
0
'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 Operating Cashflow Dividend + Buyback
Investing Cashflow Other Financing
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Tencent Holdings
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Tencent Holdings
Tencent has the largest online community in China with >1.2b users. Its major platforms are Symbol 700 HK ISIN KYG875721634
communications (Weixin/WeChat, QQ IM), fintech (WeixinPay), online gaming, social networks
Currency HKD Exchange HKG
(Qzone), cloud services, media (video, news, music) and utilities (mobile browser, security). It
generates revenue from services such as gaming, subscriptions and advertising. Pony Ma is the Website www.tencent.com
Chairman and CEO. He owns 7.4% of Tencent - 2nd largest after Naspers (30.86%).
Industry Interactive Media & Services
• Super social. The massive 1.2b active WeChat users provide ample opportunities to cross-sell PRICE HISTORY
various services such as gaming, video, music, mini-programs and advertising. This is all
underpinned by a common payment platform – WeixinPay, hosted on Tencent Cloud. TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD - Price (HKD)
800
• Gaming giant. Tencent owns the world’s leading gaming platform. It has grown rapidly,
driven by expansions into mobile gaming, new user groups and other geographies. 600
• AI powerhouse. The immense data generated by its various platforms has given Tencent
access to an unparalleled trove of information which it can harness using AI. 400
• Mega investor. Tencent owns a portfolio of over 700 companies' worth >$100b, including
200
notable names such as Meituan, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Tesla, SEA Ltd and Epic Games.
As of 11 Mar 2022
0
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Tencent’s Key Platforms include Social, Gaming, Media, Fintech, Cloud and Payments REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Tencent Holdings
1 Rapid growth into new areas such as Fintech and Cloud has 2 WeChat has over 1.2b active users, providing cross-selling
helped to reduce the dependency on Gaming opportunities across various services within the Group
0 194
200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Online Games Social Networks Advertising Fintech & Cloud 0
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Source: Company Data Source: Company Data
3 Tencent generates revenue from the sale of services such as 4 Tencent holds stakes in >700 companies worth over US$100b
gaming, virtual goods, subscriptions and advertising
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
Tencent Holdings
1 Overall revenue holding up as growth in Fintech & Cloud helps to 2 Core earnings saw a decline in 3Q12 due to lower margins &
offset weakness in Gaming and Advertising higher costs from wages
160 Tencent - Core Net Profit (RMB b)
140 Tencent : Revenue (RMB b) 40
Tencent
120 35
100 30
80 25
60 20
40 15
20 10
0 5
0
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Q117
Q217
Q317
Q417
Q118
Q218
Q318
Q418
Q119
Q219
Q319
Q419
Q120
Q220
Q320
Q420
Q121
Q221
Q321
Online Games Social Networks Media Ads
Social Ads Fintech & Cloud Source: Tencent
3 There was a noticeable pick up in wages & share-based 4 The core WeChat user base continue to grow, while the number
compensation since Q2 – common prosperity at work? of fee paying customers are growing too
Wages Content Cost Distribution Promotions Others Weixin & Wechat Users (m) Fee Based Subscriptions (m)
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
TSMC
April 2022
Report prepared by UBS Wealth Management
Please see important disclaimers at the end of the document.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
TSMC
TSMC is the largest foundry globally, with ~54% market share. It produces semiconductors Symbol 2330 TT / TSM US ISIN TW0002330008
for over 500 customers such as AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia and Qualcomm. Most of its fabs are
Currency TWD / USD Exchange Taiwan / NYSE
in Taiwan; it also has a presence in China and US. By region, US makes up 65% of its sales,
followed by Asia (13%) and China (11%). TSMC has >51,000 employees. The National Dvpt Website www.tsmc.com.tw
Fund of Taiwan is its largest shareholder with 6.4% stake. Industry Semiconductors - Foundry
• Secular growth. In the past ten years, TSMC has sustained a revenue growth of 12% CAGR PRICE HISTORY
while share price has risen at 25% CAGR. Sales are expected to grow +15% ahead.
• Growth drivers. Smartphone (48%) still enjoys moderate growth while high-performance TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFAC - Price
800 (TWD)
computing (33%) is the next big driver – thanks to AI, cloud and data-centres. Further out,
growth will be driven by IoT (8% sales) and electric vehicles (3%). 600
• Dominant lead. TSMC is expected to maintain a dominant lead over the other foundries
with a 54% market share as it is investing aggressively into advanced nodes. Currently, only 400
Samsung and Intel have the ability to manufacture chips at below 10nm.
200
• Risks. US-China tensions have impacted TSMC's sales to Huawei – but its exposure to China
As of 11 Mar 2022
has fallen from 17% to just 11%. Further out, geopolitical risks could play into its favour as 0
it prevents US companies from buying from China, while TSMC is expanding into the US. 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
TSMC is the leading foundry globally with a dominant 54% market share REVENUE & OPERATING PROFIT
TSMC 1,000.0
54%
Samsung
17% 500.0
0.0 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
UMC
7%
Source : TrendForce As of 11 Mar 2022
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
TSMC
1 Growth is expected to be driven by high-performance 2 Advanced nodes (5-7nm) now make up >50% of sales;
computing (33% sales), IoT (8%) and auto (3%). competition is less intense here while demand is strong.
16nm 28nm
High Internet of 13% 10%
Performance Things
Computing 40/45nm
8%
33% 8%
TSMC 65nm
TSMC Auto 4%
Revenue by 3% Revenue
7nm
Applications 34%
by Nodes 90nm…
Consumer
4% 0.11/0.13μm
3%
Other 0.15/0.18μm
Smartphone Devices 6%
48% 4% 5nm >0.25μm
18% 2%
TSMC
3 China was ~20% of sales earlier but it has since dropped to 4 Capex is expected to pick up ahead as TSMC ramps up its
11% after sanctions on Huawei – reduced concentration risk. capacities, but can be supported by healthy cashflow
China 0
Revenue
11% (500)
by Regions
(3Q21) (1,000)
US Europe (1,500)
65% 6% (2,000)
'21E
'22E
'23E
'00A
'01A
'02A
'03A
'04A
'05A
'06A
'07A
'08A
'09A
'10A
'11A
'12A
'13A
'14A
'15A
'16A
'17A
'18A
'19A
'20A
Japan
5% Operating Cashflow Dividend + Buyback
TSMC Investing Cashflow Other Financing Bloomberg
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
TSMC
1 3Q21 revenue continues to grow steadily, led by Smartphone 2 China saw a strong uptick between 4Q19-3Q20 during the US
& Computing, with IoT gaining in significance sanctions; it fell in 4Q20 but is picking up again
Smartphone Computing IoT Auto Consumer Others US AsiaPac China Europe Japan
3 Contributions from the advanced 5-7nm nodes are picking up, 4 Margins have started to improve as the advanced nodes hit
driven by smartphone & advanced computing economies of scale, aided by price hikes
54.0
53.4
53.0
400
52.4
51.8
51.3
55
50.3
50.2
50.0
350
47.8
47.7
47.6
47.4
300 50
250
43.0
41.3
200 45
150 40
100
50 35
0
30
Please see important disclaimers and disclosures at the end of the document. All information has been sourced from publicly available information,
including but not limited to, company websites and financial reports, analyst reports, news articles and information service providers.
For UBS Marketing Purposes Only
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