APARTMENT ResearchForecastReport JKT 3Q2015 2
APARTMENT ResearchForecastReport JKT 3Q2015 2
APARTMENT ResearchForecastReport JKT 3Q2015 2
Forecast Report
Jakarta | Apartment
3Q 2015
Accelerating success.
Apartment Sector
Highlight
Despite the weight of multiple downside pressures like sluggish economic growth and lackadaisical demand, overall apartment
prices still witnessed a minor increase of 3.4% QoQ or 11.2% YoY to IDR29.87 million/sq m. This increase is the result of the price
adjustments developers often make due to take-up as their projects near completion. The average take-up rate in 3Q 2015 for under
construction and completed projects was relatively stable at 85.8%, down only moderately from the previous quarter.
The completion of seven projects contributing an additional operating units this quarter. The completion of Raffles Residence
3,218 units increased the inventory of strata-title apartments in will add more units in the category of luxury apartment in the
Jakarta to a total of 152,358 units; up by 2.2% QoQ or 9.4% YoY. CBD area.
The majority of the new completed projects were brand-new Despite undergoing downside pressure on sales activity,
projects, except for the Bassura City project with its new tower developers still set positive expectations on the property market,
called Flamboyan Tower (an extension of the first completed especially for residential projects, largely in view of the mature
tower, Geranium Tower). Of the 3,218 newly available units this demographic profile and rising middle-class. In addition, Jakarta
quarter, Bassura City is the project with the highest number of City is anticipating massive improvements in infrastructure
units. 79% of the 3,218 units are categorised as middle-class development including LRT (Light Rail Transit), MRT (Mass
apartment including Bassura City itself together with The H Rapid Transit) and toll roads which are expected to boost
Residence, Satu8 Residence and Capitol Park (Tower Safir). demand for residences within the catchment area, as well as the
Other than the Basura City project, there are mainly projects with value of properties in the surroundings.
limited units, suggesting the exclusivity of the development. This
Eight strata-title apartment projects, consisting of 3,308 units,
includes projects like Setiabudi Sky Garden, Senopati Penthouse
were also launched or introduced between July and September
and Providence Park which represent 19% of the total newly
2015. These projects are slated for completion from 2018 to 2020.
Quite a few future projects (58% of the total future apartments) Total Number of Units Being Introduced or Launched
will be located in South Jakarta. In line with massive commercial During 2015YTD in Each Region
development in TB Simatupang and surrounding areas, more
new apartment projects are under construction and in planning, 6,000
including Ratu Prabu 3 Residences and Fatmawati City Centre
that cater to the middle- to upper-class segment. In the south,
a crème de la crème residential area, Dharmawangsa will see 5,000
an upscale project called Ammi Residence, complementing the
other existing upper-class projects in the neighbourhood. Other 4,000
future apartment projects being launched this quarter are Royal
Park Kebayoran, located in Cipulir, and The Residence Gatot
Subroto; both are targeted at the middle class. 3,000
units
segment and will be developed by KG Global Development, the Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
same developer that built The City Tower, TCC Batavia, Tamini
Square and the future Mangkuluhur project.
The government has recently released a stimulus package aimed
During 2015YTD, a total of 18,317 units have been introduced at luring more investment to Indonesia. One of the policies
to the market, a large proportion of which are new projects includes investment in the property sector. The government
in the South Jakarta area. By number of units and number of will push to provide housing accommodation for low-income
projects, South Jakarta has 30 and 52% of the apartment supply, households, while widening investment opportunities in the
respectively, followed by West Jakarta, with 17 and 25%. South domestic property sector, which allows foreign ownership of
and West Jakarta continue to be growing residential areas, luxury condominiums priced at a minimum of IDR10 billion
taking advantage of established and good accessibility to the (approximately USD700,000)/unit. This plan sounds like a
downtown as well as better infrastructure and facilities. These positive endorsement for developers, especially those who
include access to the toll road, airport, international schools and build upscale projects. However, we expect that the regulation
shopping centres. East Jakarta continues to be the choice of both will have little impact on the overall sales activities because the
investors and end-users in the middle-lower segment. market share of this segment only represents less than 1% of the
total 96,781 units in the market that are offered at IDR10 billion/
unit.
North
Jakarta
3%
Middle-Upper Middle-Lower
36% 47%
South
Jakarta
52%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2015
2016
The Residence (CWJ 2) Jl. Prov Dr Satrio Kav 6, Kuningan CBD 119
The Orchad Satrio (CWJ 2) Jl. Prov Dr Satrio Kav 6, Kuningan CBD 349
Gayanti City (2 Towers) Jl. Gatot Subroto CBD 318
T - Plaza Residence (Tower A) Jl. Penjernihan I Kav.1 Pejompongan Central Jakarta 307
Sentosa Residence Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 687
Sudirman Hill Residence Jl. Karet Pasar Baru Central Jakarta 255
The Green Pramuka (Tower Orchid) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
The Green Pramuka (Tower Penelope) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
The Green Pramuka (Tower Scarlet) Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani Central Jakarta 1,000
Capitol Suites Jl. Prapatan Raya Central Jakarta 327
The H Residence Kemayoran (Amethyst) Jl. Rajawali Selatan Central Jakarta 800
The Royal Springhill (Bulgari Tower) Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran Central Jakarta 192
Holland Village (Phase II) Cempaka Putih Central Jakarta 230
Signature Park Grande Jl. MT. Haryono East Jakarta 1,100
Bassura City (Tower Cattleya) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 600
East Park Apartment (Tower C) Jl. KRT Radjiman East Jakarta 550
Bassura City (Tower Alamanda) Jl. Basuki Rahmat East Jakarta 600
Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Tosca) Pulo Gebang East Jakarta 133
Pluit Seaview (Tower Belize) Pluit North Jakarta 300
Pluit Seaview (Tower Ibiza) Pluit North Jakarta 500
Pluit Seaview (Tower Bahama) Pluit North Jakarta 650
Marina The Coastal Ancol North Jakarta 1,500
La Venue - North Tower Jl. Pasar Minggu South Jakarta 253
Kemang Village (The Bloomington) Jl. P Antasari South Jakarta 150
Senopati Suites 3 Jl. Senopati South Jakarta 54
1 Park Avenue (3 Towers) Jl. KHM Syafi'I Hadzami (terusan gandaria) South Jakarta 279
Pakubuwono Terrace Grand Tower Kebayoran Lama South Jakarta 435
District 8 (Tower Eternity) Jl. Senopati South Jakarta 400
District 8 (Tower Infinity) Jl. Senopati South Jakarta 280
continued
Izzara Apartment (South and North Tower) TB. Simatupang South Jakarta 542
Lexington Rersidence Pondok Pinang South Jakarta 275
Apartment Pejaten Park Residence Jl. Warung Buncit Raya No.21 South Jakarta 560
The Aspen Peak at Admiralty (Tower C) Jl. Fatmawati South Jakarta 322
Four Winds Jl. Permata Hijau Raya No.1 South Jakarta 122
Bellevue Place MT Haryono, Tebet South Jakarta 240
Kebayoran Icon Jl. Ciledug Raya South Jakarta 256
One Casablanca Residence Jl. Pal Batu South Jakarta 215
Grand Dhika Mansion Pejaten (Sector 1) Jl. Siaga Raya South Jakarta 44
Sapphire Residence Lebak Bulus South Jakarta 37
Woodland Park (Mahogany Tower) Jl. Pahlawan Kalibata South Jakarta 218
St Moritz (The New Ambassador Suite Tower) Jl. Puri Indah Kembangan West Jakarta 200
The Windsor (Tower II) Jl. Puri Indah West Jakarta 164
Gianetti Apartment Jl. Kebon Jeruk Raya, Kemanggisan West Jakarta 500
Gallery West Jl. Panjang No 5 West Jakarta 280
Green Park View (Tower G) Jl. Daan Mogot West Jakarta 1,200
Belmont Residence (TowerAthena) Jl. Meruya Ilir West Jakarta 193
Puri Mansion Apartment (Tower Amethyst) Jl. Lingkar Luar Barat, Puri Kembangan West Jakarta 900
Madison Park Tanjung Duren West Jakarta 1,200
Veranda Jl. Pesanggrahan Raya, Kembangan West Jakarta 174
2017
2018
2019
Demand Bank Indonesia’s relaxed policy through the new LTV regulation
has yet to have a direct positive impact on the pre-sales activity
The first semester of 2015 was a hardship period for the and mortgage demand, in our opinion mainly because the
apartment market. In general, the apartment market during 3Q interest rate is still high. As a result, developers / companies
2015 remained challenging. The continuing rupiah depreciation continue to offer longer in-house financing (cash instalments)
against the US dollar and slower economic growth (which has and balloon payment to the buyers. In our view, despite the fact
been below 5%) has been the main cause of the slowdown in that Bank Indonesia has raised the loan-to-value ratios (from
sales. Potential buyers, particularly investors, are now becoming 30% : 70% to 20% : 80%), the prevailing regulation that bans
more cautious and prudent in spending their money. on indent mortgage contributed to the slowdown in demand,
especially for the under-construction projects.
Overall, the average take-up rates in 3Q 2015 remained at 85.8%,
down moderately from the previous quarter. The table below For some time, the CBD has remained the preferred location
shows that the existing apartment market recorded a positive and with limited land to be developed, this area continues to
sales trend, albeit moderate, while the pre-sales of under- record the highest average take-up rate of 96.8% compared to
construction apartments slipped by less than 1% compared to the other areas. This figure suggests a modest increase of 2.1%
the previous quarter. Additionally, the softening demand in pre- from the previous quarter or 1.5% YoY as a result of continued
sales activity is also due to the wait-and-see attitude of investors absorption of both existing and under-construction apartment
waiting for further conducive measures from the government units, besides the fact that there is only a limited number of
regarding a number of proposed regulatory changes, including projects being offered in CBD. Similarly, the apartment market
land and building tax, foreign ownership and luxury tax in the non-prime area also recorded an upward trend, albeit a
(PPnBM). moderate one, during the reviewed quarter. As part of investment
instruments, the property sector, in particular apartments,
remains attractive for domestic investors. With relatively
Take-up Rate Performance of Existing and Under- reasonable prices, apartment projects in the non-prime areas
construction Projects have appealed to individual investors who hope to protect their
wealth in the midst of a dismal economy.
2Q 2015 3q 2015 QoQ
Existing Projects 95.8% 96.0% 0.2% In the other favourite home location, South Jakarta, sales
Pre-Sales Rates (of under construction 69.0% 68.6% -0.4% performance has weakened since the beginning of 2015,
projects) largely affected by the influx of abundant new projects (52% of
Average (existing and under construction 85.9% 85.8% -0.1% the total newly introduced/launched projects) which was not
projects) counterbalanced by the same absorption rate.
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
20%
30,000,000
10% R
CAG
0% + 15%
South Jakarta 66.9% 63.6% -3.3% 3Q 2011 3Q 2012 3Q 2013 3Q 2014 3Q 2015
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
In the middle of September, the Ministry of Finance indicated Price adjustments during the quarter are mainly triggered
that the luxury tax (PPnBM) of 20% is only imposed on property by continuing construction progress that maintains market
transactions for houses and apartments worth more than IDR10 confidence. Projects approaching the hand-over stage seem to
billion (approximately USD700,000). The threshold for the super- have limited available units, which also led to the adjustment in
luxury tax (PPH 22) was revised during 2Q 2015 from IDR10 to prices. Another factor that stimulates price adjustments is that
5 billion. At this stage, we are still waiting for a comprehensive some apartment projects offer semi-furnished units, equipped
regulation so that the luxury tax and super-luxury tax will not with stove, kitchen cabinets, water heater and air-conditioner,
overlap. In general, such an incentive would stimulate the which force prices higher.
residential property market to further move forward.
Although there might be a sizeable pool of potential investors
Another hot issue but remains uncertain is to allow foreign or buyers waiting on the side-lines, these buyers are now
ownership of Indonesian property in a bid to boost tax revenue more selective and will only commit if desired projects have
as well as the domestic property industry. This will enable a competitive price. Furthermore, in the middle of slowing
foreigners (expatriates) to buy, own, inherit and trade luxury economic conditions, psychologically, buyers or investors might
apartments that have a minimum value of IDR10 billion on a be reluctant to make a purchase now.
“right to use” or “hak pakai” title. The IDR10 billion minimum
value of the luxury apartments has not yet formally decided.
Nevertheless, in our opinion such a regulation would not
Average Asking Price (in IDR) in Three Different
significantly accelerate sales activity because there are only a few Regions
apartment projects with units valued above IDR10 billion (circa 3Q 2014 2Q 2015 3Q 2015 QoQ YoY
1% from the total of under-construction units). CBD 41,759,,611 45,279,368 46,322,208 2.3% 10.9%
Non-prime area 20,320,645 21,646,375 22,429,188 3.6% 10.4%
South Jakarta 31,241,685 33,469,503 34,699,316 3.7% 11.1%
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
70%
Rental Rate for Serviced Apartments
60%
Area Rental rate (/sq m/month)
50% CBD IDR 434,488
40% South Jakarta (incl. Non-prime) IDR 337,351
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
30%
20%
Rental Rate for Non-serviced Apartments
10%
Area Rental rate (/sq m/month)
0%
CBD IDR 227,439
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015YTD South Jakarta (incl. Non-prime) IDR 175,636
Non-serviced Apartment Serviced Apartment Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
6 continents
United States: 140
Canada: 31
Latin America: 24
Asia: 39
ANZ: 160
EMEA: 108
Colliers International Indonesia
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