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MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question.
Solve the problem.

1) Which statement best describes a parameter?
A) A parameter is an unbiased estimate of a statistic found by experimentation or polling.
B) A parameter is a numerical measure of a population that is almost always unknown and must be
estimated.
C) A parameter is a level of confidence associated with an interval about a sample mean or proportion.
D) A parameter is a sample size that guarantees the error in estimation is within acceptable limits.
Answer: B
2) A study was conducted to determine what proportion of all college students considered themselves as full-time
students. A random sample of 300 college students was selected and 210 of the students responded that they
considered themselves full-time students. Which of the following would represent the target parameter of
interest?
A) μ
B) p
Answer: B
3) Parking at a large university can be extremely difficult at times. One particular university is trying to determine
the location of a new parking garage. As part of their research, officials are interested in estimating the average
parking time of students from within the various colleges on campus. Which of the following would represent
the target parameter of interest?
A) μ
B) p
Answer: A
Answer the question True or False.

4) For data with two outcomes (success or failure), the binomial proportion of successes is likely to be the
parameter of interest.
A) True
B) False
Answer: A
5) For quantitative data, the target parameter is most likely to be the mode of the data.
A) True
B) False
Answer: B
Solve the problem.

6) What is zα/2 when α = 0.01?
A) 1.96
B) 2.33
C) 1.645
D) 2.575
Answer: D
1
7) What is the confidence level of the following confidence interval for μ?
σ
x ± 0.99
n
A) 80%
B) 90%
C) 67%
D) 99%
Answer: C
8) The registrar's office at State University would like to determine a 95% confidence interval for the mean
commute time of its students. A member of the staff randomly chooses a parking lot and surveys the first 200
students who park in the chosen lot on a given day. The confidence interval is
A) meaningful because the sample size exceeds 30 and the Central Limit Theorem ensures normality of the
sampling distribution of the sample mean.
B) not meaningful because of the lack of random sampling.
C) meaningful because the sample is representative of the population.
D) not meaningful because the sampling distribution of the sample mean is not normal.
Answer: B
9) A 90% confidence interval for the mean percentage of airline reservations being canceled on the day of the flight
is (3.9%, 7.3%). What is the point estimator of the mean percentage of reservations that are canceled on the day
of the flight?
A) 3.4%
B) 5.60%
C) 3.65%
D) 1.70%
Answer: B
10) A 95% confidence interval for the average salary of all CEOs in the electronics industry was constructed using
the results of a random survey of 45 CEOs. The interval was ($130,771, $146,241). To make more useful
inferences from the data, it is desired to reduce the width of the confidence interval. Which of the following will
result in a reduced interval width?
A) Decrease the sample size and decrease the confidence level.
B) Decrease the sample size and increase the confidence level.
C) Increase the sample size and increase the confidence level.
D) Increase the sample size and decrease the confidence level.
Answer: D
11) Suppose a large labor union wishes to estimate the mean number of hours per month a union member is absent
from work. The union decides to sample 375 of its members at random and monitor the working time of each of
them for 1 month. At the end of the month, the total number of hours absent from work is recorded for each
employee. Which of the following should be used to estimate the parameter of interest for this problem?
A) A small sample confidence interval for p.
B) A small sample confidence interval for μ.
C) A large sample confidence interval for p.
D) A large sample confidence interval for μ.
Answer: D
2
12) Explain what the phrase 95% confident means when we interpret a 95% confidence interval for μ.
A) 95% of the observations in the population fall within the bounds of the calculated interval.
B) In repeated sampling, 95% of similarly constructed intervals contain the value of the population mean.
C) The probability that the sample mean falls in the calculated interval is 0.95.
D) 95% of similarly constructed intervals would contain the value of the sampled mean.
Answer: B
parking time of students from within the various colleges on campus. A survey of 338 College of Business
(COBA) students yields the following descriptive information regarding the length of time (in minutes) it took
them to find a parking spot. Note that the "Lo 95%" and "Up 95%" refer to the endpoints of the desired
confidence interval.
Variable N Lo 95% CI Mean Up 95% CI SD

Parking Time 338 9.1944 10.466 11.738 11.885
University officials have determined that the confidence interval would be more useful if the interval were
narrower. Which of the following changes in the confidence level would result in a narrower interval?
A) The university could increase their confidence level.
B) The university could decrease their confidence level.
Answer: B
14) A retired statistician was interested in determining the average cost of a $200,000.00 term life insurance policy
for a 60-year-old male non-smoker. He randomly sampled 65 subjects (60-year-old male non-smokers) and
constructed the following 95 percent confidence interval for the mean cost of the term life insurance: ($850.00,
$1050.00). What value of alpha was used to create this confidence interval?
A) 0.10
B) 0.025
C) 0.05
D) 0.01
Answer: C
SHORT ANSWER. Write the word or phrase that best completes each statement or answers the question.
15) Suppose (1,000, 2,100) is a 95% confidence interval for μ. To make more useful inferences from the data, it is
desired to reduce the width of the confidence interval. Explain why an increase in sample size will lead to a
narrower interval of the estimate of μ.
Answer: An increase in the sample size reduces the sampling variation of the point estimate as it is calculated as
σ/ n. The larger the sample size, the smaller this variation which leads to narrower intervals.

16) One way of reducing the width of a confidence interval is to reduce the confidence level.
A) True
B) False
Answer: A
3
17) The Central Limit Theorem guarantees an approximately normal sampling distribution for the sample mean for
large sample sizes, so no knowledge about the distribution of the population is necessary for the corresponding
interval to be valid.
A) True
B) False
Answer: A
18) Since the population standard deviation σ is almost always known, we use it instead of the sample standard
deviation s when finding a confidence interval.
A) True
B) False
Answer: B
19) The confidence coefficient is the relative frequency with which the interval estimator encloses the population
parameter when the estimator is used repeatedly a very large number of times.
A) True
B) False
Answer: A
20) The confidence level is the confidence coefficient expressed as a percentage.

A) True
B) False
Answer: A
Solve the problem.

21) What is the confidence coefficient in a 95% confidence interval for μ?
A) .05
B) .95
C) .025
D) .475
Answer: B
22) Which information is not shown on the screen below?
A) the confidence level

B) the sample standard deviation
C) the sample mean
D) the sample size
Answer: A
4
23) Find z α/2 for the given value of α.
α = 0.05
A) 1.645
B) 0.33
C) 1.96
D) 2.81
Answer: C
24) Determine the confidence level for the given confidence interval for μ.
σ
x ± 1.34
n
A) 82%
B) 41%
C) 95.5%
D) 91%
Answer: A
25) A random sample of n measurements was selected from a population with unknown mean μ and known
standard deviation σ. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for μ for the given situation. Round to the nearest
hundredth when necessary.
n = 160, x = 68, σ = 15
A) 68 ± 2.32
B) 68 ± 29.4
C) 68 ± 0.18
D) 68 ± 1.95
Answer: A
26) A 90% confidence interval for the average salary of all CEOs in the electronics industry was constructed using
the results of a random survey of 45 CEOs. The interval was ($124,443, $140,235). Give a practical interpretation
of the interval.
A) 90% of the sampled CEOs have salaries that fell in the interval $124,443 to $140,235.
B) We are 90% confident that the mean salary of all CEOs in the electronics industry falls in the interval
$124,443 to $140,235.
C) We are 90% confident that the mean salary of the sampled CEOs falls in the interval $124,443 to $140,235.
D) 90% of all CEOs in the electronics industry have salaries that fall between $124,443 to $140,235.
Answer: B
27) A random sample of 250 students at a university finds that these students take a mean of 15.2 credit hours per
quarter with a standard deviation of 2.3 credit hours. Estimate the mean credit hours taken by a student each
quarter using a 95% confidence interval. Round to the nearest thousandth.
A) 15.2 ± .285
B) 15.2 ± .188
C) 15.2 ± .012
D) 15.2 ± .018
Answer: A
5
28) A random sample of 250 students at a university finds that these students take a mean of 15 credit hours per
quarter with a standard deviation of 2.5 credit hours. The 99% confidence interval for the mean is 15 ± 0.407.
Interpret the interval.
A) We are 99% confident that the average number of credit hours per quarter of the sampled students falls in
the interval 14.593 to 15.407 hours.
B) The probability that a student takes 14.593 to 15.407 credit hours in a quarter is 0.99.
C) 99% of the students take between 14.593 to 15.407 credit hours per quarter.
D) We are 99% confident that the average number of credit hours per quarter of students at the university
falls in the interval 14.593 to 15.407 hours.
Answer: D
29) The director of a hospital wishes to estimate the mean number of people who are admitted to the emergency
room during a 24-hour period. The director randomly selects 81 different 24-hour periods and determines the
number of admissions for each. For this sample, x = 15.6 and s2 = 16. Estimate the mean number of admissions
per 24-hour period with a 99% confidence interval.
A) 15.6 ± .440
B) 15.6 ± 1.144
C) 15.6 ± 4.578
D) 15.6 ± .127
Answer: B
30) Suppose a large labor union wishes to estimate the mean number of hours per month a union member is absent
from work. The union decides to sample 301 of its members at random and monitor the working time of each of
them for 1 month. At the end of the month, the total number of hours absent from work is recorded for each
employee. If the mean and standard deviation of the sample are x = 9.3 hours and s = 2.3 hours, find a 95%
confidence interval for the true mean number of hours a union member is absent per month. Round to the
nearest thousandth.
A) 9.3 ± .126
B) 9.3 ± .015
C) 9.3 ± .171
D) 9.3 ± .260
Answer: D

Parking Time 338 9.1944 10.466 11.738 11.885
Give a practical interpretation for the 95% confidence interval given above.
A) 95% of the COBA students had parking times that fell between 9.19 and 11.74 minutes.
B) 95% of the COBA students had parking times of 10.466 minutes.
C) We are 95% confident that the average parking time of all COBA students falls between 9.19 and 11.74
minutes.
D) We are 95% confident that the average parking time of the 338 COBA students surveyed falls between 9.19
and 11.74 minutes.
Answer: C
6

Parking Time 338 9.1944 10.466 11.738 11.885
Explain what the phrase "95% confident" means when working with a 95% confidence interval.
A) In repeated sampling, 95% of the intervals created will contain the population mean.
B) In repeated sampling, 95% of the sample means will fall within the interval created.
C) In repeated sampling, 95% of the population means will fall within the interval created.
D) 95% of the observations in the population will fall within the endpoints of the interval.
Answer: A
$1050.00). State the appropriate interpretation for this confidence interval. Note that all answers begin with "We
are 95 percent confidence that…"
A) The average term life insurance costs for all 60-year-old male non-smokers falls between $850.00 and
$1050.00
B) The term life insurance cost of the retired statistician's insurance policy falls between $850.00 and $1050.00
C) The average term life insurance cost for sampled 65 subjects falls between $850.00 and $1050.00
D) The term life insurance cost for all 60-year-old male non-smokers' insurance policies falls between
$850.00 and $1050.00
Answer: A
$1050.00). Explain what the phrase "95 percent confident" means in this situation.
A) In repeated sampling, the mean of the population will fall within the specified intervals 95 percent of the
time.
B) 95 percent of all the life insurance costs will fall within the specified interval.
C) In repeated sampling, 95 percent of the intervals constructed would contain the value of the true
population mean.
D) 95 percent of all retired statisticians are underinsured.
Answer: C
7
35) How much money does the average professional football fan spend on food at a single football game? That
question was posed to 60 randomly selected football fans. The sampled results show that the sample mean was
$70.00 and prior sampling indicated that the population standard deviation was $17.50. Use this information to
create a 95 percent confidence interval for the population mean.
17.50
A) 70 ± 1.671
60
17.50
B) 70 ± 1.645
60
17.50
C) 70 ± 1.833
60
17.50
D) 70 ± 1.960
60
Answer: D
question was posed to 42 randomly selected football fans. The sample results provided a sample mean and
standard deviation of $15.00 and $2.75, respectively. Find and interpret a 99% confidence interval for μ.
Answer: For confidence coefficient .99, 1 - α ⇒ α = 1 - .99 = .01.
⇒ α/2 = .01/2 = .005 ⇒ z.005 = 2.575. The confidence interval is:
s 2.75
x ± zα/2 = 15.00 ± 2.575 = 15.00 ± 1.093 = ($13.91, $16.09)
n 42
We are 99% confident that the average amount a fan spends on food at a single professional football
game is between $13.91 and $16.09.
37) To help consumers assess the risks they are taking, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes the
amount of nicotine found in all commercial brands of cigarettes. A new cigarette has recently been marketed.
The FDA tests on this cigarette yielded a mean nicotine content of 27.9 milligrams and standard deviation of 2.3
milligrams for a sample of n = 90 cigarettes. Find a 95% confidence interval for μ.
Answer: For confidence coefficient .95, 1 - α = .95 ⇒ α = 1 - .95 = .05.
α/2 = .05/2 = .025. ⇒ zα/2 = z.025 = 1.96. The 95% confidence interval is:
s 2.3
x ± zα/2 = 27.9 ± 1.96 ⇒ 27.9 ± .475 = (27.425, 28.375)
n 90
8
38) The following data represent the scores of a sample of 50 randomly chosen students on a standardized test.
39 48 55 63 66 68 68 69 70 71
71 71 73 74 76 76 76 77 78 79
79 79 79 80 80 82 83 83 83 85
85 86 86 88 88 88 88 89 89 89
90 91 92 92 93 95 96 97 97 99
a. Write a 95% confidence interval for the mean score of all students who took the test.
b. Identify the target parameter and the point estimator.
Answer: a. The sample mean is 79.98 and the sample standard deviation is 12.34.
12.34
The interval is 79.98 ± 1.96 ≈ 79.98 ± 3.42.
50
b. The target parameter is the mean score of all students who took the test, and the point estimator is the
sample mean 79.98.
39) Suppose that 100 samples of size n = 50 are independently chosen from the same population and that each
sample is used to construct its own 95% confidence interval for an unknown population mean μ. How many of
the 100 confidence intervals would you expect to actually contain μ?
Answer: 95% of the 100 samples, or 95, are expected to produce a confidence interval that contains μ.
40) A random sample of n = 100 measurements was selected from a population with unknown mean μ and
standard deviation σ. Calculate a 95% confidence interval if x = 26 and s2 = 16.
s 16
Answer: x ± zα/2 = 26 ± 1.96 = 26 ± .784
n 100
41) A random sample of n = 144 measurements was selected from a population with unknown mean μ and
standard deviation σ. Calculate a 90% confidence interval if x = 3.55 and s = .49.
s .49
Answer: x ± zα/2 = 3.55 ± 1.645 = 3.55 ± .067
n 144
42) A random sample of 80 observations produced a mean x = 35.4 and a standard deviation s = 3.1.
a. Find a 90% confidence interval for the population mean μ.

b. Find a 95% confidence interval for μ.
c. Find a 99% confidence interval for μ.
d. What happens to the width of a confidence interval as the value of the confidence coefficient is increased
while the sample size is held fixed?
s 3.1
Answer: a. x ± zα/2 = 35.4 ± 1.645 = 35.4 ± .57
n 80
s 3.1
b. x ± zα/2 = 35.4 ± 1.96 = 35.4 ± .68
n 80
s 3.1
c. x ± zα/2 = 35.4 ± 2.575 = 35.4 ± .89
n 80
d. increases
9
43) Suppose you selected a random sample of n = 7 measurements from a normal distribution. Compare the
standard normal z value with the corresponding t value for a 90% confidence interval.
Answer: z: 1.645 and t: 1.943; The t value is considerably bigger than the z value.
44) Suppose you selected a random sample of n = 29 measurements from a normal distribution. Compare the
standard normal z value with the corresponding t value for a 95% confidence interval.
Answer: z: 1.96 and t: 2.048; The t value is a little bigger than the z value.
45) An educator wanted to look at the study habits of university students. As part of the research, data was
collected for three variables - the amount of time (in hours per week) spent studying, the amount of time (in
hours per week) spent playing video games and the GPA - for a sample of 20 male university students. As part
of the research, a 95% confidence interval for the average GPA of all male university students was calculated to
be: (2.95, 3.10). Which of the following statements is true?
A) In construction of the confidence interval, a z-value was used.
B) In construction of the confidence interval, a t-value with 20 degrees of freedom was used.
C) In construction of the confidence interval, a z-value with 20 degrees of freedom was used.
D) In construction of the confidence interval, a t-value with 19 degrees of freedom was used.
Answer: D
46) Find the value of t0 such that the following statement is true: P(-t0 ≤ t ≤ t0 ) = .99 where df = 9.
A) 2.262
B) 3.250
C) 2.2821
D) 1.833
Answer: B
A) 2.947
B) 2.602
C) 2.131
D) 1.753
Answer: C
A) 1.345
B) 2.624
C) 1.761
D) 2.145
Answer: C
49) Let t0 be a specific value of t. Find t0 such that the following statement is true:
P(t ≤ t0 ) = .05 where df = 20.
A) -1.729
B) 1.729
C) 1.725
D) -1.725
Answer: D
10
50) Let t0 be a particular value of t. Find a value of t0 such that P(t ≤ t0 or t ≥ t0 ) = .1 where df = 14.
Answer: t0 = 1.761; Use table for t.050 with 14 degrees of freedom.
51) Let t0 be a particular value of t. Find a value of t0 such that P(t ≤ t0 ) = .005 where df = 9.
Answer: t0 = 3.250; Use table for t.005 with 9 degrees of freedom.
52) Private colleges and universities rely on money contributed by individuals and corporations for their operating
expenses. Much of this money is invested in a fund called an endowment, and the college spends only the
interest earned by the fund. A recent survey of eight private colleges in the United States revealed the following
endowments (in millions of dollars): 81.6, 41.2, 248.9, 487, 114, 161.7, 101.3, and 208.2. What value will be used as
the point estimate for the mean endowment of all private colleges in the United States?
A) 180.488
B) 1443.9
C) 8
D) 206.271
Answer: A
53) Fifteen SmartCars were randomly selected and the highway mileage of each was noted. The analysis yielded a
mean of 47 miles per gallon and a standard deviation of 5 miles per gallon. Which of the following would
represent a 90% confidence interval for the average highway mileage of all SmartCars?
5
A) 47 ± 1.753
15
5
B) 47 ± 1.761
15
5
C) 47 ± 1.645
15
5
D) 47 ± 1.345
15
Answer: B
question was posed to ten randomly selected football fans. The sampled results show that the sample mean and
sample standard deviation were $70.00 and $17.50, respectively. Use this information to create a 95 percent
confidence interval for the population mean.
17.50
A) 70 ± 1.960
60
17.50
B) 70 ± 1.833
60
17.50
C) 70 ± 2.228
60
17.50
D) 70 ± 2.262
60
Answer: D
11
55) You are interested in purchasing a new car. One of the many points you wish to consider is the resale value of
the car after 5 years. Since you are particularly interested in a certain foreign sedan, you decide to estimate the
resale value of this car with a 90% confidence interval. You manage to obtain data on 17 recently resold
5-year-old foreign sedans of the same model. These 17 cars were resold at an average price of $12,590 with a
standard deviation of $800. What is the 90% confidence interval for the true mean resale value of a 5- year-old
car of this model?
A) 12,590 ± 1.746(800/ 16)
B) 12,590 ± 1.645(800/ 17)
C) 12,590 ± 1.746(800/ 17)
D) 12,590 ± 1.740(800/ 17)
Answer: C
standard deviation of $700. Suppose that the interval is calculated to be ($11,860.08, $12,579.92). How could we
alter the sample size and the confidence coefficient in order to guarantee a decrease in the width of the interval?
A) Increase the sample size and increase the confidence coefficient.
B) Decrease the sample size but increase the confidence coefficient.
C) Increase the sample size but decrease the confidence coefficient.
D) Keep the sample size the same but increase the confidence coefficient.
Answer: C
question was posed to 10 randomly selected football fans. The sample results provided a sample mean and
standard deviation of $14.00 and $3.45, respectively. Use this information to construct a 95% confidence interval
for the mean.
A) 14 ± 2.262(3.45/ 10)
B) 14 ± 2.228(3.45/ 10)
C) 14 ± 1.833(3.45/ 10)
D) 14 ± 2.201(3.45/ 10)
Answer: A
58) A marketing research company is estimating the average total compensation of CEOs in the service industry.
Data were randomly collected from 18 CEOs and the 90% confidence interval for the mean was calculated to be
($2,181,260, $5,836,180). Explain what the phrase "90% confident" means.
A) 90% of the population values will fall within the interval.
B) 90% of the similarly constructed intervals would contain the value of the sample mean.
C) In repeated sampling, 90% of the intervals constructed would contain μ.
D) 90% of the sample means from similar samples fall within the interval.
Answer: C
12
($2,181,260, $5,836,180). What additional assumption is necessary for this confidence interval to be valid?
A) None. The Central Limit Theorem applies.
B) The distribution of the sample means is approximately normal.
C) The population of total compensations of CEOs in the service industry is approximately normally
distributed.
D) The sample standard deviation is less than the degrees of freedom.
Answer: C
($2,181,260, $5,836,180). What would happen to the confidence interval if the confidence level were changed to
98%?
A) There would be no change in the width of the interval.
B) The interval would get narrower.
C) The interval would get wider.
D) It is impossible to tell until the 98% interval is constructed.
Answer: B
61) A computer package was used to generate the following printout for estimating the mean sale price of homes in
a particular neighborhood.
X = sale_price
SAMPLE MEAN OF X = 46,400

SAMPLE STANDARD DEV = 13,747
` SAMPLE SIZE OF X = 15
CONFIDENCE = 95
UPPER LIMIT = 54,013.6

LOWER LIMIT = 38,786.4
At what level of reliability is the confidence interval made?

A) 5%
B) 47.5%
C) 95%
D) 52.5%
Answer: C
13
X = sale_price

SAMPLE SIZE OF X = 15
CONFIDENCE = 90

Which of the following is a practical interpretation of the interval above?

A) We are 90% confident that the mean sale price of all homes in this neighborhood falls between $40,049.40
and $52,550.60.
B) 90% of the homes in this neighborhood have sale prices that fall between $40,049.40 and $52,550.60.
C) We are 90% confident that the true sale price of all homes in this neighborhood fall between $40,049.40
and $52,550.60.
D) All are correct practical interpretations of this interval.
Answer: A
X = sale_price

CONFIDENCE = 99

A friend suggests that the mean sale price of homes in this neighborhood is $44,000. Comment on your friend's
suggestion.
A) Your friend is wrong, and you are 99% certain.
B) Your friend is correct, and you are 100% certain.
C) Your friend is correct, and you are 99% certain.
D) Based on this printout, all you can say is that the mean sale price might be $44,000.
Answer: D
14
64) To help consumers assess the risks they are taking, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) publishes the
amount of nicotine found in all commercial brands of cigarettes. A new cigarette has recently been marketed.
The FDA tests on this cigarette yielded mean nicotine content of 28.9 milligrams and standard deviation of 2.8
milligrams for a sample of n = 9 cigarettes. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean nicotine content of
this brand of cigarette.
A) 28.9 ± 3.131
B) 28.9 ± 3.033
C) 28.9 ± 3.217
D) 28.9 ± 3.321
Answer: A
65) Private colleges and universities rely on money contributed by individuals and corporations for their operating
expenses. Much of this money is invested in a fund called an endowment, and the college spends only the
interest earned by the fund. A recent survey of eight private colleges in the United States revealed the following
endowments (in millions of dollars): 60.2, 47.0, 235.1, 490.0, 122.6, 177.5, 95.4, and 220.0. Summary statistics
yield x = 180.975 and s = 143.042. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the mean endowment of all private
colleges in the United States.
A) 180.975 ± 124.673
B) 180.975 ± 119.605
C) 180.975 ± 127.863
D) 180.975 ± 116.621
Answer: B
be: (2.95, 3.10). The researcher claimed that the average GPA of all male students exceeded 2.94. Using the
confidence interval supplied above, how do you respond to this claim?
A) We are 95% confident that the researcher is incorrect.
B) We cannot make any statement regarding the average GPA of male university students at the 95%
confidence level.
C) We are 95% confident that the researcher is correct.
D) We are 100% confident that the researcher is incorrect.
Answer: C
be: (2.95, 3.10). What assumption is necessary for the confidence interval analysis to work properly?
A) The population that we are sampling from needs to be a t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom.
B) The sampling distribution of the sample mean needs to be approximately normally distributed.
C) The population that we are sampling from needs to be approximately normally distributed.
D) The Central Limit theorem guarantees that no assumptions about the population are necessary.
Answer: C
15
standard deviation of $600. Create a 95% confidence interval for the true mean resale value of a 5-year-old car
of that model.
Answer: For confidence coefficient .95, 1 - α ⇒ α = 1 - .95 = .05.
α/2 = 0.05/2 = 0.025. With df = n - 1 = 17 - 1 = 16, t0.025 = 2.120. The 95% confidence interval is:
s 600
x ± tα/2 = 13,300 ± 2.120 = (12,991.49, 13,608.51)
n 17
For this interval to be valid, we must assume that the population of resale values for all 5-year-old cars of
this model follows an approximately normal distribution.
Data were randomly collected from 18 CEOs and the 99% confidence interval was calculated to be
($2,181,260, $5,836,180). Give a practical interpretation of the confidence interval.
Answer: We are 99% confident that the average total compensation of CEOs in the service industry is contained in
the interval $2,181,260 to $5,836,180.
Data were randomly collected from 18 CEOs and the 99% confidence interval was calculated to be
($2,181,260, $5,836,180). Based on the interval above, do you believe the average total compensation of CEOs in
the service industry is more than $1,500,000?
Answer: Since all of the values in the interval are greater than $1,500,000, it seems very likely that the mean is
greater than $1,500,000, but we can't be 100% certain.
X = sale_price
SAMPLE MEAN OF X = 46300

SAMPLE STANDARD DEV = 13747
CONFIDENCE = 90
UPPER LIMIT = 51003.90

SAMPLE MEAN OF X = 46300
LOWER LIMIT = 41596.10
A friend suggests that the mean sale price of homes in this neighborhood is $46,000. Comment on your friend's
suggestion.
Answer: Your friend could be correct. $46,000 is contained in the 90% confidence interval. It cannot be ruled out as
a possible value for the mean sales price.
16
72) The following random sample was selected from a normal population: 9, 11, 8, 10, 14, 8. Construct a 95%
confidence interval for the population mean μ.
s 2.28
Answer: x = 10; s = 2.28; x ± tα/2 = 10 ± 2.571 = 10 ± 2.393
n 6
73) The following sample of 16 measurements was selected from a population that is approximately normally
distributed.
61 85 92 77 83 81 75 78
95 87 69 74 76 84 80 83
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population mean.

s 8.367
Answer: x = 80; s = 8.367; x ± tα/2 = 80 ± 1.753 = 80 ± 3.667
n 16
74) A marketing research company is estimating which of two soft drinks college students prefer. A random sample
of 168 college students produced the following confidence interval for the proportion of college students who
prefer drink A: (.344, .494). Is this a large enough sample for this analysis to work?
A) Yes, since n = 168 (which is 30 or more).
B) No.
^ ^
C) Yes, since both np ≥ 15 and nq ≥ 15.
D) It is impossible to say with the given information.
Answer: C
of 329 college students produced the following 95% confidence interval for the proportion of college students
who prefer one of the colas: (.329, .469). What additional assumptions are necessary for the interval to be valid?
A) The sample was randomly selected from an approximately normal population.
B) The sample proportion equals the population proportion.
C) The population proportion has an approximately normal distribution.
D) No additional assumptions are necessary.
Answer: D
17
76) What type of car is more popular among college students, American or foreign? One hundred fifty-nine college
students were randomly sampled and each was asked which type of car he or she prefers. A computer package
was used to generate the printout below for the proportion of college students who prefer American
automobiles.
SAMPLE PROPORTION = .396226

SAMPLE SIZE = 159
UPPER LIMIT = .46171

LOWER LIMIT = .331129
Is the sample large enough for the interval to be valid?

^ ^
A) Yes, since np and nq are both greater than 15.
B) No, the population of college students is not normally distributed.
C) No, the sample size should be at 10% of the population.
D) Yes, since n > 30.
Answer: A
considered themselves full-time students. A computer program was used to generate the following 95%
confidence interval for the population proportion: (0.64814, 0.75186). The sample size that was used in this
problem is considered a large sample. What criteria should be used to determine if n is large?
A) If n > 30, then n is considered large.
^ ^
B) Both np ≥ 15 and nq ≥ 15.
C) When working with proportions, any n is considered large.
D) If n > 25, then n is considered large.
Answer: B
^
78) For n = 40 and p = .35, is the sample size large enough to construct a confidence for p?
^
Answer: No; np = 14 < 15
^
^ ^
Answer: Yes; np = 18 > 15 and nq = 22 > 15
^
^
Answer: No; nq = 8 < 15

^
81) The sampling distribution for p is approximately normal for a large sample size n, where n is considered large if
^ ^
both n p ≥ 15 and n(1 - p) ≥ 15.
A) True
B) False
Answer: A
18
82) When the sample size is small, confidence intervals for a population proportion are more reliable when the
population proportion p is near 0 or 1.
A) True
B) False
Answer: B
Solve the problem.

of n college students produced the following 99% confidence interval for the proportion of college students who
prefer drink A: (.232, .592). Identify the point estimate for estimating the true proportion of college students
who prefer that drink.
A) .18
B) .592
C) .412
D) .232
Answer: C
was used to generate the printout below for the proportion of college students who prefer American
automobiles.

SAMPLE SIZE = 159
UPPER LIMIT = .464240

LOWER LIMIT = .331153
What proportion of the sampled students prefer foreign automobiles?

A) .464240
B) .331153
C) .386393
D) .613607
Answer: D
19
was used to generate the printout below of a 90% confidence interval for the proportion of college students who
prefer American automobiles.

SAMPLE SIZE = 159
UPPER LIMIT = .460

LOWER LIMIT = .332
Which of the following is a correct practical interpretation of the interval?

A) We are 90% confident that the proportion of all college students who prefer American cars falls between
.332 and .460.
B) We are 90% confident that the proportion of the 159 sampled students who prefer American cars falls
between .332 and .460.
C) We are 90% confident that the proportion of all college students who prefer foreign cars falls between .332
and .460.
D) 90% of all college students prefer American cars between .332 and .460 of the time.
Answer: A
was used to generate the printout below of a 90% confidence interval for the proportion of college students who
prefer American automobiles.

SAMPLE SIZE = 159
UPPER LIMIT = .460

LOWER LIMIT = .332
Based on the interval above, do you believe that 28% of all college students prefer American automobiles?
A) No, and we are 100% sure of it.
B) Yes, and we are 90% confident of it.
C) No, and we are 90% confident of it.
D) Yes, and we are 100 %sure of it.
Answer: C
87) A newspaper reported on the topics that teenagers most want to discuss with their parents. The findings, the
results of a poll, showed that 46% would like more discussion about the family's financial situation, 37% would
like to talk about school, and 30% would like to talk about religion. These and other percentages were based on
a national sampling of 532 teenagers. Estimate the proportion of all teenagers who want more family
discussions about school. Use a 95% confidence level.
A) .37 ± .002
B) .63 ± .041
C) .37 ± .041
D) .63 ± .002
Answer: C
20
88) A newspaper reported on the topics that teenagers most want to discuss with their parents. The findings, the
a national sampling of 549 teenagers. Using 99% reliability, can we say that more than 30% of all teenagers want
to discuss school with their parents?
A) Yes, since the values inside the 99% confidence interval are greater than .30.
B) No, since the value .30 is not contained in the 99% confidence interval.
C) No, since the value .30 is not contained in the 99% confidence interval.
D) Yes, since the value .30 falls inside the 99% confidence interval.
Answer: A
89) A random sample of 4000 U.S. citizens yielded 2190 who are in favor of gun control legislation. Find the point
estimate for estimating the proportion of all Americans who are in favor of gun control legislation.
A) 2190
B) .4525
C) 4000
D) .5475
Answer: D
90) A random sample of 4000 U.S. citizens yielded 2250 who are in favor of gun control legislation. Estimate the
true proportion of all Americans who are in favor of gun control legislation using a 90% confidence interval.
A) .5625 ± .4048
B) .4375 ± .0129
C) .5625 ± .0129
D) .4375 ± .4048
Answer: C
91) A university dean is interested in determining the proportion of students who receive some sort of financial aid.
Rather than examine the records for all students, the dean randomly selects 200 students and finds that 118 of
them are receiving financial aid. Use a 95% confidence interval to estimate the true proportion of students who
receive financial aid.
A) .59 ± .474
B) .59 ± .002
C) .59 ± .005
D) .59 ± .068
Answer: D
them are receiving financial aid. The 95% confidence interval for p is 59 ± .07. Interpret this interval.
A) We are 95% confident that the true proportion of all students receiving financial aid is between .52 and .66.
B) We are 95% confident that 59% of the students are on some sort of financial aid.
C) 95% of the students receive between 52% and 66% of their tuition in financial aid.
D) We are 95% confident that between 52% and 66% of the sampled students receive some sort of financial
aid.
Answer: A
21
93) A confidence interval was used to estimate the proportion of statistics students who are female. A random
sample of 72 statistics students generated the following 99% confidence interval: (.438, .642). State the level of
reliability used to create the confidence interval.
A) 64.2%
B) between 43.8% and 64.2%
C) 99%
D) 72%
Answer: C
sample of 72 statistics students generated the following 90% confidence interval: (.438, .642). Based on the
interval, is the population proportion of females equal to 51%?
A) Yes, and we are 90% sure of it.
B) No, the proportion is 54%.
C) Maybe. 51% is a believable value of the population proportion based on the information above.
D) No, and we are 90% sure of it.
Answer: C
considered themselves full-time students. A computer program was used to generate the following 95%
confidence interval for the population proportion: (0.64814, 0.75186). Which of the following practical
interpretations is correct for this confidence interval?
A) We are 95% confident that the percentage of all college students who consider themselves full-time
students falls between 0.648 and 0.752.
B) We are 95% confident that the percentage of the 300 students who responded that they considered
themselves full-time students falls between 0.648 and 0.752.
C) We are 95% confident that the percentage of all college students who consider themselves full-time
students was 0.700.
D) We are 95% confident that the percentage of the 300 students who responded that they considered
themselves full-time students was 0.700.
Answer: A
22
96) The U.S. Commission on Crime randomly selects 600 files of recently committed crimes in an area and finds 380
in which a firearm was reportedly used. Find a 99% confidence interval for p, the true fraction of crimes in the
area in which some type of firearm was reportedly used.
Answer: Let p = the true fraction of crimes in the area in which some type of firearm was reportedly used.
^ 380 ^ ^
p= = .6333 and q = 1 - p = 1 - .6333 = .3667.
600
^^
^ pq
The confidence interval for p is p ± zα/2 .
n
For confidence coefficient .99, 1 - α = .99 ⇒ α = 1 - .99 = .01.
α/2 = .01/2 = .005.
zα/2 = z.005 = 2.575. The 99% confidence interval is:
.6333(.3667)
.6333 ± 2.575 = .6333 ± .0507
600
97) A newspaper reports on the topics that teenagers most want to discuss with their parents. The findings, the
a national sampling of 505 teenagers. Estimate the proportion of all teenagers who want more family
discussions about religion. Use a 90% confidence level.
Answer: For confidence coefficient .90, 1 - α = .90 ⇒ α = 1 - .90 = .1.
α/2 = .1/2 = .05.
zα/2 = z.05 = 1.645. The 90% confidence interval for p is:
^^
^ pq .30(.70)
p ± zα/2 ⇒ .30 ± 1.645 ⇒ .30 ± .0335
n 505
98) A random sample of 50 employees of a large company was asked the question, "Do you participate in the
company's stock purchase plan?" The answers are shown below.
yes no no yes no no yes yes no no

no yes yes yes no yes no no yes yes
no yes yes no yes yes no yes yes yes
yes no no yes yes yes yes yes no yes
no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes
Use a 90% confidence interval to estimate the proportion of employees who participate in the company's stock
purchase plan.
^ 32 (.64)(.36)
Answer: p = = .64; The confidence interval is .64 ± 1.645 ≈ .64 ± .112.
50 50
23
99) We intend to estimate the average driving time of a group of commuters. From a previous study, we believe
that the average time is 42 minutes with a standard deviation of 9 minutes. We want our 90 percent confidence
interval to have a margin of error of no more than plus or minus 3 minutes. What is the smallest sample size
that we should consider?
A) 74
B) 3
C) 25
D) 5
Answer: C
100) A local men's clothing store is being sold. The buyers are trying to estimate the percentage of items that are
outdated. They will choose a random sample from the 100,000 items in the store's inventory in order to
determine the proportion of merchandise that is outdated. The current owners have never determined the
percentage of outdated merchandise and cannot help the buyers. How large a sample do the buyers need in
order to be 90% confident that the margin of error of their estimate is about 3%?
A) 457
B) 1504
C) 3007
D) 752
Answer: D
sample of 72 statistics students generated the following confidence interval: (.438, .642). Using the information
above, what sample size would be necessary if we wanted to estimate the true proportion to within 2% using
95% reliability?
A) 2386
B) 2498
C) 2305
D) 2401
Answer: A
102) Sales of a new line of athletic footwear are crucial to the success of a company. The company wishes to estimate
the average weekly sales of the new footwear to within $500 with 90% reliability. The initial sales indicate that
the standard deviation of the weekly sales figures is approximately $1500. How many weeks of data must be
sampled for the company to get the information it desires?
A) 12,178 weeks
B) 25 weeks
C) 15 weeks
D) 5 weeks
Answer: B
24
103) The director of a hospital wishes to estimate the mean number of people who are admitted to the emergency
room during a 24-hour period. The director randomly selects 64 different 24-hour periods and determines the
number of admissions for each. For this sample, x = 19.8 and s2 = 36. If the director wishes to estimate the mean
number of admissions per 24-hour period to within 1 admission with 95% reliability, what is the minimum
sample size she should use?
A) 4979
B) 139
C) 2541
D) 71
Answer: B
104) A previous random sample of 4000 U.S. citizens yielded 2250 who are in favor of gun control legislation. How
many citizens would need to be sampled for a 90% confidence interval to estimate the true proportion within
1%?
A) 7036
B) 6224
C) 6766
D) 6660
Answer: D
them are receiving financial aid. If the dean wanted to estimate the proportion of all students receiving financial
aid to within 1% with 90% reliability, how many students would need to be sampled?
A) 3980
B) 1584
C) 66
D) 6546
Answer: D
106) After elections were held, it was desired to estimate the proportion of voters who regretted that they did not
vote. How many voters must be sampled in order to estimate the true proportion to within 2% (e.g., + 0.02) at
the 90% confidence level? Assume that we believe this proportion lies close to 30%.
A) n = 1421
B) n = 1692
C) n = 2017
D) n = 2401
E) Cannot determine because no estimate of p or q exists in this problem.
Answer: A
107) Suppose it is desired to estimate the average time a customer spends in a particular store to within 5 minutes
(e.g., + 5 minutes) at 99% reliability. It is estimated that the standard deviation of the times is 15 minutes. How
large a sample should be taken to get the desired interval?
A) n = 299
B) n = 25
C) n = 60
D) n = 35
Answer: C
25
108) It is desired to estimate the average time it takes Statistics students to finish a computer project to within two
hours at 90% reliability. It is estimated that the standard deviation of the times is 14 hours. How large a sample
should be taken to get the desired interval?
A) n = 325
B) n = 133
C) n = 189
D) n = 231
Answer: B
109) It is desired to estimate the proportion of college students who feel a sudden relief now that their statistics class
is over. How many students must be sampled in order to estimate the true proportion to within 2% at the 90%
confidence level?
A) n = 2401
B) n = 1692
C) n = 189
D) n = 133
E) Cannot determine because no estimate of p or q exists in this problem
Answer: B
110) A local men's clothing store is being sold. The buyers are trying to estimate the percentage of items that are
outdated. They will choose a random sample from the 100,000 items in the store's inventory in order to
determine the proportion of merchandise that is outdated. The current owners have never determined the
percentage of outdated merchandise and cannot help the buyers. How large a sample do the buyers need in
order to be 99% confident that the margin of error of their estimate is within 4%?
zα/2 2
Answer: To determine the sample size necessary to estimate p, we use n = pq
SE
α/2 = .01/2 = .005.
zα/2 = z.005 = 2.575.
Since no estimate of p exists, we use p = q = .5.
2.575 2
n= (.5)(.5) = 1036.03516. Round up to n = 1037.
.04
111) Suppose you wanted to estimate a binomial proportion, p, correct to within .01 with probability 0.99. What size
sample would need to be selected if p is known to be approximately 0.75?
z α/2 2
Answer: To determine the sample size necessary to estimate p, we use n = p(1 - p).
SE
α/2 = .01/2 = .005.
zα/2 = z.005 = 2.575.
2.575 2
n= (.75)(1 - .75) = 12,432.4219. Round up to n = 12,433.
.01
26
112) The standard deviation of a population is estimated to be 275 units. To estimate the population mean to within
48 units with 90% reliability, what size sample should be selected?
zα/2 2
Answer: To determine the sample size necessary to estimate μ, we use n = σ2.
SE
α/2 = .1/2 = .05.
zα/2 = z.05 = 1.645.
1.645 2
n= 2752 = 88.8208. Round up to n = 89.
48
113) Sales of a new line of athletic footwear are crucial to the success of a newly formed company. The company
wishes to estimate the average weekly sales of the new footwear to within $250 with 95% reliability. The initial
sales indicate that the standard deviation of the weekly sales figures is approximately $1700. How many weeks
of data must be sampled for the company to get the information it desires?
zα/2 2
Answer: To determine the sample size necessary to estimate μ, we use n = σ2.
SE
α/2 = .05/2 = .025.
zα/2 = z.025 = 1.96.
1.96 2
n= 17002 = 177.6356. Round up to n = 178.
250
114) In the construction of confidence intervals, if all other quantities are unchanged, an increase in the sample size
will lead to a __________ interval.
A) less significant
B) narrower
C) wider
D) biased
Answer: B

115) One way of reducing the width of a confidence interval is to reduce the size of the sample taken.
A) True
B) False
Answer: B
116) If no estimate of p exists when determining the sample size for a confidence interval for a proportion, we can
use .5 in the formula to get a value for n.
A) True
B) False
Answer: A
27
Solve the problem.
2
117) For the given combination of α and degrees of freedom (df), find the value of χ α/2 that would be used to find
the lower endpoint of a confidence interval for σ2 .

α = 0.01, df = 30
A) 50.8922
B) 13.7867
C) 53.6720
D) 52.3356
Answer: C
2
118) For the given combination of α and degrees of freedom (df), find the value of χ (1 - α/2) that would be used to
find the upper endpoint of a confidence interval for σ2 .

α = 0.01, df = 6
A) 0.411740
B) 18.5476
C) 0.872085
D) 0.675727
Answer: D
119) Given the values of x, s, and n, form a 99% confidence interval for σ2.
x = 10.9, s = 5.1, n = 17
A) (12.9, 85.99)
B) (2.55, 14.04)
C) (13.01, 71.6)
D) (12.14, 80.93)
Answer: D
120) Given the values of x, s, and n, form a 99% confidence interval for σ.
x = 5.3, s = 9.7, n = 24
A) (7.21, 14.57)
B) (48.98, 233.69)
C) (5.05, 24.09)
D) (7, 15.29)
Answer: D
121) The daily intakes of milk (in ounces) for ten five-year old children selected at random from one school were:
10.6 23.5 25.6 31.6 14.1
16.9 16.1 13.3 31.5 14.1
Find a 99% confidence interval for the standard deviation, σ, of the daily milk intakes of all five-year olds at
this school. Round to the nearest hundredth when necessary.
A) (4.77, 15.81)
B) (4.62, 15.81)
C) (0.99, 3.59)
D) (4.77, 17.60)
Answer: D
28
122) The mean systolic blood pressure for a random sample of 28 women aged 18-24 is 115.1 mm Hg and the
standard deviation is 13.4 mm Hg. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the standard deviation σ, of the
systolic blood pressures of all women aged 18-24. Round to the nearest hundredth when necessary.
A) (11.49, 16.36)
B) (10.83, 16.92)
C) (10.45, 18.76)
D) (10.99, 17.33)
Answer: D
123) The mean replacement time for a random sample of 12 CD players is 8.6 years with a standard deviation of 2.6
years. Construct the 99% confidence interval for the population variance, σ2 . Assume the data are normally
distributed, and round to the nearest hundredth when necessary.
A) (2.78, 28.56)
B) (3.01, 24.35)
C) (1.07, 10.99)
D) (1.67, 5.34)
Answer: A
124) A random sample of 15 crates have a mean weight of 165.2 pounds and a standard deviation of 12.6 pounds.
Construct a 95% confidence interval for the population standard deviation σ. Assume the population is
normally distributed, and round to the nearest hundredth when necessary.
A) (9.69, 18.39)
B) (85.1, 394.87)
C) (2.6, 5.6)
D) (9.22, 19.87)
Answer: D
125) The volumes (in ounces) of juice in eight randomly selected juice bottles are as follows:
15.2 15.7 15.8 15.6
15.4 15.4 15.0 15.1
Find a 99% confidence interval for the standard deviation, σ, of the volumes of juice in all such bottles. Round
to the nearest hundredth when necessary.
A) (0.17, 0.66)
B) (0.16, 0.66)
C) (0.17, 0.77)
D) (0.19, 0.88)
Answer: C
29
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the most deeply are often the least capable of expressing their
feelings, and a speechless tongue is with them the result of a full
heart. Besides, you are sure to be repaid for a good action at some
time or another. Like seed sown in the Nile, “the bread cast upon the
waters,” it may not come back to you for many days, but come back
at last it most certainly will. Would you like your change in silver or in
gold? Will you have it in a few graceful, well-chosen expressions, or
in the sterling coin of silent love with its daily thoughts and nightly
prayers; or, better still even than these, will you waive your claim to it
down here, and have it carried to your account above? I am
supposing yours is not one of those natures which have arrived at
the highest, the noblest type of benevolence, and give their gold
neither for silver nor for copper, but freely without return at all. To
these I can offer no encouragement, no advice. Their grapes are
ripened, their harvest is yellow, the light is already shining on them
from the golden hills of heaven.
CHAPTER VI
A DAY THAT IS DEAD
I have been burning old letters to-night; their ashes are fluttering in
the chimney even now; and, alas! while they consume, fleeting and
perishable like the moments they record, “each dying ember” seems
to have “wrought its ghost” upon my heart. Oh! that we could either
completely remember or completely forget. Oh! that the image of
Mnemosyne would remain close enough for us to detect the flaws in
her imperishable marble, or that she would remove herself so far as
to be altogether out of sight. It is the golden haze of “middle
distance” that sheds on her this warm and tender light. She is all the
more attractive that we see her through a double veil of retrospection
and regret, none the less lovely because her beauty is dimmed and
softened in a mist of tears.
Letter after letter they have flared, and blackened, and shrivelled
up. There is an end of them—they are gone. Not a line of those
different handwritings shall I ever see again. The bold, familiar
scrawl of the tried friend and more than brother; why does he come
back to me so vividly to-night? The stout heart, the strong arm, the
brave, kind face, the frank and manly voice. We shall never tread the
stubble nor the heather side by side again; never more pull her up
against the stream, nor float idly down in the hot summer noons to
catch the light air off the water on our heated faces; to discourse, like
David and Jonathan, of all and everything nearest our hearts. Old
friend! old friend! wherever you are, if you have consciousness you
must surely sometimes think of me; I have not forgotten you. I
cannot believe you have forgotten me even there.
And the pains-taking, up-and-down-hill characters of the little child
—the little child for whom the angels came so soon, yet found it
ready to depart, whose fever-wasted lips formed none but words of
confidence and affection, whose blue eyes turned their last dim,
dying looks so fondly on the face it loved.
And there were letters harder to part with than these. Never mind,
they are burnt and done with; letters of which even the superscription
once made a kind heart leap with pleasure so intense it was almost
pain; letters crossed and re-crossed in delicate, orderly lines, bearing
the well-known cipher, breathing the well-known perfume, telling the
old, false tale in the old, false phrases, so trite and worn-out, yet
seeming always so fresh and new.
The hand that formed them has other tasks to occupy it now; the
heart from which they came is mute and cold. Hope withers, love
dies—times are altered. What would you have? It is a world of
change. Nevertheless this has been a disheartening job; it has put
me in low spirits; I must call “Bones” out of his cupboard to come and
sit with me.
“What is this charm,” I ask him, “that seems to belong so
exclusively to the past?—this ‘tender grace of a day that is dead’?
and must I look after it down the gulf into which it has dropped with
such irrepressible longing only because it will never come back to
me? Is a man the greater or wiser that he lived a hundred years ago
or a thousand? Are reputations, like wine, the mellower and the more
precious for mere age, even though they have been hid away in a
cellar all the time? Is a thing actually fairer and better because I have
almost forgotten how it looked when present, and shall never set
eyes on it again? I entertain the greatest aversion to Horace’s
laudator temporis acti, shall always set my face against the
superstition that ‘there were giants in those days’; and yet wherever I
went in the world previous to my retirement here that I might live with
you, I found the strange maxim predominate, that everything was
very much better before it had been improved!
“If I entered a club and expressed my intention of going to the
Opera, for instance, whatever small spark of enthusiasm I could
kindle was submitted to a wet blanket on the spot. ‘Good heavens!’
would exclaim some venerable philosopher of the Cynic and
Epicurean schools, ‘there is no opera now, nor ballet neither. My
good sir, the thing is done; it’s over. We haven’t an artist left. Ah! you
should have seen Taglioni dance; you should have heard Grisi sing;
you should have lived when Plancus was consul. In short, you
should be as old as I am, and as disgusted, and as gouty, and as
disagreeable!’
“Or I walked into the smoking-room of that same resort, full of
some athletic gathering at Holland Park, some ’Varsity hurdle-race,
some trial of strength or skill amongst those lively boys, the
subalterns of the Household Brigade; and ere I could articulate
‘brandy and soda’ I had Captain Barclay thrown body and bones in
my face. ‘Walk, sir! You talk of walking?’ (I didn’t, for there had been
barely time to get a word in edgeways, or my parable would have
exhausted itself concerning a running high leap.) ‘But there is
nothing like a real pedestrian left; they don’t breed ’em, sir, in these
days: can’t grow them, and don’t know how to train them if they
could! Show me a fellow who would make a match with Barclay to-
day. Barclay, sir, if he were alive, would walk all your best men down
after he came in from shooting. Ask your young friends which of ’em
would like to drive the mail from London to Edinburgh without a
greatcoat! I don’t know what’s come to the present generation. It
must be the smoking, or the light claret, perhaps. They’re done,
they’re used up, they’re washed out. Why, they go to covert by
railway, and have their grouse driven to them on a hill! What would
old Sir Tatton or Osbaldeston say to such doings as these? I was at
Newmarket, I tell you, when the Squire rode his famous match—two
hundred miles in less than nine hours! I saw him get off old Tranby,
and I give you my honour the man looked fresher than the horse!
Don’t tell me. He was rubbed down by a couple of prize-fighters
(there were real bruisers in those days, and the best man used to
win), dressed, and came to dinner just as you would after a five-mile
walk. Pocket Hercules, you call him—one in a thousand? There were
hundreds of such men in my day. Why, I recollect in Tom Smith’s
time that I myself——’
“But at this point I used to make my escape, because there are
two subjects on which nobody is so brilliant as not to be prolix, so
dull as not to be enthusiastic—his doings in the saddle and his
adventures with the fair. To honour either of these triumphs he blows
a trumpet-note loud and long in proportion to the antiquity of the
annals it records. Why must you never again become possessed of
such a hunter as Tally-Ho? Did that abnormal animal really carry you
as well as you think, neither failing when the ground was deep nor
wavering when the fences were strong? Is it strictly true that no day
was ever too long for him? that he was always in the same field with
the hounds? And have not the rails he rose at, the ditches he
covered so gallantly, increased annually in height and depth and
general impossibility ever since that fatal morning when he broke his
back, under the Coplow in a two-foot drain?
“You can’t find such horses now? Perhaps you do not give them
so liberal a chance of proving their courage, speed, and endurance.
“On the other topic it is natural enough, I dare say, for you to ‘yarn’
with all the more freedom that there is no one left to contradict.
People used enormous coloured silk handkerchiefs in that remote
period, when you threw yours with such Oriental complacency, and
the odalisques who picked it up are probably to-day so old and stiff
they could not bend their backs to save their lives. But were they
really as fond, and fair, and faithful as they seem to you now? Had
they no caprices to chill, no whims to worry, no rivals on hand, to
drive you mad? Like the sea, those eyes that look so deep and blue
at a distance, are green and turbid and full of specks when you come
quite close. Was it all sunshine with Mary, all roses with Margaret, all
summer with Jane? What figures the modern women make of
themselves, you say. How they offend your eye, those bare cheek-
bones, those clinging skirts, those hateful chignons! Ah! the cheeks
no longer hang out a danger-signal when you approach; the skirts
are no more lifted, ever such a little, to make room for you in the
corner of the sofa next the fire; and though you might have had locks
of hair enough once to have woven a parti-coloured chignon of your
own, it would be hopeless now to beg as much as would make a
finger-ring for Queen Mab. What is it, I say, that causes us to look
with such deluded eyes on the past? Is it sorrow or malice,
disappointment or regret? Are our teeth still on edge with the sour
grapes we have eaten or forborne? Do we glower through the
jaundiced eyes of malevolence, or is our sight failing with the shades
of a coming night?”
Bones seldom delivers himself of his opinion in a hurry. “I think,”
he says very deliberately, “that this, like many other absurdities of
human nature, originates in that desire for the unattainable which is,
after all, the mainspring of effort, improvement, and approach
towards perfection. Man longs for the impossible, and what is so
impossible as the past? That which hath vanished becomes
therefore valuable, that which is hidden attractive, that which is
distant desirable. There is a strange lay still existing by an old
Provençal troubadour, no small favourite with iron-handed, lion-
hearted King Richard, of which the refrain, ‘so far away,’ expresses
very touchingly the longing for the absent, perhaps only because
absent, that is so painful, so human, and so unwise. The whole story
is wild and absurd to a degree, yet not without a saddened interest,
owing to the mournful refrain quoted above. It is thus told in the
notes to Warton’s History of English Poetry:—
“‘Jeffrey Rudell, a famous troubadour of Provence, who is also
celebrated by Petrarch, had heard from the adventurers in the
Crusades the beauty of a Countess of Tripoli highly extolled. He
became enamoured from imagination, embarked for Tripoli, fell sick
on the voyage through the fever of expectation, and was brought on
shore at Tripoli, half-expiring. The countess, having received the
news of the arrival of this gallant stranger, hastened to the shore and
took him by the hand. He opened his eyes, and at once overpowered
by his disease and her kindness, had just time to say inarticulately
that having seen her he died satisfied. The countess made him a
most splendid funeral, and erected to his memory a tomb of porphyry
inscribed with an epitaph in Arabian verse. She commanded his
sonnets to be richly copied and illuminated with letters of gold, was
seized with a profound melancholy, and turned nun. I will endeavour
to translate one of the sonnets he made on his voyage, “Yret et
dolent m’en partray,” etc. It has some pathos and sentiment. “I
should depart pensive but for this love of mine so far away, for I
know not what difficulties I may have to encounter, my native land
being so far away. Thou who hast made all things and who formed
this love of mine so far away, give me strength of body, and then I
may hope to see this love of mine so far away. Surely my love must
be founded on true merit, as I love one so far away. If I am easy for a
moment, yet I feel a thousand pains for her who is so far away. No
other love ever touched my heart than this for her so far away. A
fairer than she never touched any heart, either so near or so far
away.’”
“It is utter nonsense, I grant you, and the doings of this love-sick
idiot seem to have been in character with his stanzas, yet is there a
mournful pathos about that wailing so far away which, well-worded,
well-set, and well-performed, would make the success of a drawing-
room song.
“If the Countess of Tripoli, who seems also to have owned a
susceptible temperament, had been his cousin and lived next door,
he would probably not have admired her the least, would certainly
never have wooed her in such wild and pathetic verse; but he gave
her credit for all the charms that constituted his own ideal of
perfection, and sickened even to death for the possession of his
distant treasure, simply and solely because it was so far away!
“What people all really love is a dream. The stronger the
imagination the more vivid the phantom that fills it; but on the other
hand, the waking is more sudden and more complete. If I were a
woman instead of a—a—specimen, I should beware how I set my
heart upon a man of imagination, a quality which the world is apt to
call genius, with as much good sense as there would be in
confounding the sparks from a blacksmith’s anvil with the blacksmith
himself. Such a man takes the first doll that flatters him, dresses her
out in the fabrications of his own fancy, falls down and worships, gets
bored, and gets up, pulls the tinsel off as quick as he put it on; being
his own he thinks he may do what he likes with it, and finds any
other doll looks just as well in the same light and decked with the
same trappings. Narcissus is not the only person who has fallen in
love with the reflection, or what he believed to be the reflection, of
himself. Some get off with a ducking, some are drowned in sad
earnest for their pains.
“Nevertheless, as the French philosopher says, ‘There is nothing
so real as illusion.’ The day that is dead has for men a more actual, a
more tangible, a more vivid identity than the day that exists, nay,
than the day as yet unborn. One of the most characteristic and
inconvenient delusions of humanity is its incapacity for enjoyment of
the present. Life is a journey in which people are either looking
forward or looking back. Nobody has the wisdom to sit down for half-
an-hour in the shade listening to the birds overhead, examining the
flowers underfoot. It is always ‘How pleasant it was yesterday! What
fun we shall have to-morrow!’ Never ‘How happy we are to-day!’ And
yet what is the past, when we think of it, but a dream vanished into
darkness—the future but an uncertain glimmer that may never
brighten into dawn?
“It is strange how much stronger in old age than in youth is the
tendency to live in the hereafter. Not the real hereafter of another
world, but the delusive hereafter of this. Tell a lad of eighteen that he
must wait a year or two for anything he desires very eagerly, and he
becomes utterly despondent of attaining his wish; but an old man of
seventy is perfectly ready to make arrangements or submit to
sacrifices for his personal benefit to be rewarded in ten years’ time or
so, when he persuades himself he will still be quite capable of
enjoying life. The people who purchase annuities, who plant trees,
who breed horses for their own riding are all past middle age.
Perhaps they have seen so many things brought about by waiting,
more particularly when the deferred hope had caused the sick
heart’s desire to pass away, that they have resolved for them also
must be ‘a good time coming,’ if only they will have patience and
‘wait a little longer.’ Perhaps they look forward because they cannot
bear to look back. Perhaps in such vague anticipations they try to
delude their own consciousness, and fancy that by ignoring and
refusing to see it they can escape the inevitable change. After all,
this is the healthiest and most invigorating practice of the two.
Something of courage seems wanting in man or beast when either is
continually looking back. To the philosopher ‘a day that is dead’ has
no value but for the lesson it affords; to the rest of mankind it is
inestimably precious for the unaccountable reason that it can never
come again.”
“Be it so,” I answered; “let me vote in the majority. I think with the
fools, I honestly confess, but I have also a theory of my own on this
subject, which I am quite prepared to hear ridiculed and despised.
My supposition is that ideas, feelings, delusions, name them how
you will, recur in cycles, although events and tangible bodies, such
as we term realities, must pass away. I cannot remember in my life
any experience that could properly be called a new sensation. When
in a position of which I had certainly no former knowledge I have
always felt a vague, dreamy consciousness that something of the
same kind must have happened to me before. Can it be that my soul
has existed previously, long ere it came to tenant this body that it is
so soon about to quit? Can it be that its immortality stretches both
ways, as into the future so into the past? May I not hope that in the
infinity so fitly represented by a circle, the past may become the
future as the future most certainly must become the past, and the
day that is dead, to which I now look back so mournfully, may rise
again newer, fresher, brighter than ever in the land of the morning
beyond that narrow paltry gutter which we call the grave?” I waited
anxiously for his answer. There are some things we would give
anything to know, things on which certainty would so completely alter
all our ideas, our arrangements, our hopes, and our regrets. Ignorant
of the coast to which we are bound, its distance, its climate, and its
necessities, how can we tell what to pack up and what to leave
behind? To be sure, regarding things material, we are spared all
trouble of selection; but there is yet room for much anxiety
concerning the outfit of the soul. For the space of a minute he
seemed to ponder, and when he did speak, all he said was this—
“I know, but I must not tell,” preserving thereafter an inflexible
silence till it was time to go to bed.
CHAPTER VII
THE FOUR-LEAVED SHAMROCK
We are all looking for it; shall we ever find it? Can it be cultivated in
hothouses by Scotch head-gardeners with high wages and Doric
accent? or shall we come upon it accidentally, peeping through
green bulrushes, lurking in tangled woodlands, or perched high on
the mountain’s crest, far above the region of grouse and heather,
where the ptarmigan folds her wings amongst the silt and shingle in
the clefts of the bare grey rock? We climb for it, we dive for it, we
creep for it on our belly, like the serpent, eating dust to any amount
in the process; but do we ever succeed in plucking such a specimen
as, according to our natures, we can joyfully place in our hats for
ostentation or hide under our waistcoats for true love?
Do you remember Sir Walter Scott’s humorous poem called the
“Search after Happiness”? Do you remember how that Eastern
monarch who strove to appropriate the shirt of a contented man
visited every nation in turn till he came to Ireland, the native soil
indeed of all the shamrock tribe; how his myrmidons incontinently
assaulted one of the “bhoys” whose mirthful demeanour raised their
highest hopes, and how
“Shelelagh, their plans was well-nigh after baulking,

Much less provocation will set it a-walking;
But the odds that foiled Hercules foiled Paddywhack.
They floored him, they seized him, they stripped him, alack!
Up, bubboo! He hadn’t a shirt to his back!”
Mankind has been hunting the four-leaved shamrock from the very
earliest times on record. I believe half the legends of mythology, half
the exploits of history, half the discoveries of science, originate in the
universal search. Jason was looking for it with his Argonauts when
he stumbled on the Golden Fleece; Columbus sailed after it in the
track of the setting sun, scanning that bare horizon of an endless
ocean, day after day, with sinking heart yet never-failing courage, till
the land-weeds drifting round his prow, the land-birds perching on his
spars, brought him their joyous welcome from the undiscovered
shore; Alexander traversed Asia in his desire for it; Cæsar dashed
through the Rubicon in its pursuit; Napoleon well-nigh grasped it
after Austerlitz, but the frosts and fires of Moscow shrivelled it into
nothing ere his hand could close upon the prize. To find it, sages
have ransacked their libraries, adepts exhausted their alembics,
misers hoarded up their gold. It is not twined with the poet’s bay-
leaves, nor is it concealed in the madman’s hellebore. People have
been for it to the Great Desert, the Blue Mountains, the Chinese
capital, the interior of Africa, and returned empty-handed as they
went. It abhors courts, camps, and cities; it strikes no root in palace
nor in castle; and if more likely to turn up in a cottage-garden, who
has yet discovered the humble plot of ground on which it grows?
Nevertheless, undeterred by warning, example, and the
experience of repeated failures, human nature relaxes nothing of its
persevering quest. I have seen a dog persist in chasing swallows as
they skimmed along the lawn; but then the dog had once caught a
wounded bird, and was therefore acting on an assured and tried
experience of its own. If you or I had ever found one four-leaved
shamrock, we should be justified in cherishing a vague hope that we
might some day light upon another.
The Knights of the Round Table beheld with their own eyes that
vision of the Holy Vessel, descending in their midst, which scattered
those steel-clad heroes in all directions on the adventure of the
Sangreal; but perhaps the very vows of chivalry they had registered,
the very exploits they performed, originated with that restless longing
they could not but acknowledge in common with all mankind for
possession of the four-leaved shamrock.
“And better he loved, that monarch bold,

On venturous quest to ride
In mail and plate, by wood and wold,
Than with ermine trapped and cloth of gold
In princely bower to bide.
The bursting crash of a foeman’s spear
As it shivered against his mail,
Was merrier music to his ear
Than courtier’s whispered tale.
And the clash of Caliburn more dear,
When on hostile casque it rung,
Than all the lays to their monarch’s praise
The harpers of Reged sung.
He loved better to bide by wood and river,
Than in bower of his dame Queen Guenevere;
For he left that lady, so lovely of cheer,
To follow adventures of danger and fear,
And little the frank-hearted monarch did wot
That she smiled in his absence on brave Launcelot.”
Oh! those lilting stanzas of Sir Walter’s, how merrily they ring on
one’s ear, like the clash of steel, the jingling of bridles, or the
measured cadence of a good steed’s stride! We can fancy ourselves
spurring through the mêlée after the “selfless stainless” king, or
galloping with him down the grassy glades of Lyonesse on one of his
adventurous quests for danger, honour, renown—and—the four-
leaved shamrock.
Obviously it did not grow in the tilt-yards at Caerleon or the palace
gardens of Camelot; nay, he had failed to find it in the posy lovely
Guenevere wore on her bosom. Alas! that even Launcelot, the flower
of chivalry, the brave, the courteous, the gentle, the sorrowing and
the sinful, must have sought for it there in vain.
Everybody begins life with a four-leaved shamrock in view, an
ideal of his own, that he follows up with considerable wrong-
headedness to the end. Such fiction has a great deal to answer for in
the way of disappointment, dissatisfaction, and disgust. Many
natures find themselves completely soured and deteriorated before
middle age, and why? Because, forsooth, they have been through
the garden with no better luck than their neighbours. I started in
business, we will say, with good connections, sufficient capital, and
an ardent desire to make a fortune. Must I be a saddened, morose,
world-wearied man because, missing that unaccountable rise in
muletwist, and taking the subsequent fall in grey shirtings too late, I
have only realised a competency, while Bullion, who didn’t want it,
made at least twenty thou.? Or I wooed Fortune as a soldier, fond of
the profession, careless of climate, prodigal of my person, ramming
my head wherever there was a chance of having it knocked off,
“sticking to it like a leech, sir; never missing a day’s duty, by Jove!
while other fellows were getting on the staff, shooting up the country,
or going home on sick leave.” So I remain nothing but an overworked
field-officer, grim and grey, with an enlarged liver, and more red in my
nose than my cheeks, while Dawdle is a major-general commanding
in a healthy district, followed about by two aides-de-camp, enjoying a
lucrative appointment with a fair chance of military distinction. Shall I
therefore devote to the lowest pit of Acheron the Horse Guards, the
War Office, H.R.H. the Commander-in-Chief, and the service of Her
Majesty the Queen? How many briefless barristers must you multiply
to obtain a Lord Chancellor, or even a Chief Baron? How many
curates go to a bishop? How many village practitioners to a
fashionable doctor in a London-built brougham? Success in every
line, while it waits, to a certain extent, on perseverance and capacity,
partakes thus much in the nature of a lottery, that for one prize there
must be an incalculable number of blanks.
I will not go so far as to say that you should abstain from the liberal
professions of arts or arms, that you should refrain from taking your
ticket in the lottery, or in any way rest idly in mid-stream, glad to
“Loose the sail, shift the oar, let her float down,
Fleeting and gliding by tower and town;”
but I ask you to remember that the marshal’s baton can only be in
one conscript’s knapsack out of half a million; that wigs and mitres,
and fees every five minutes, fall only to one in ten thousand; that
although everybody has an equal chance in the lottery, that chance
may be described as but half a degree better than the cipher which
represents zero.
There is an aphorism in everybody’s mouth about the man who
goes to look for a straight stick in the wood. Hollies, elms, oaks,
ashes, and alders he inspects, sapling after sapling, in vain. This one
has a twist at the handle, that bends a little towards the point; some
are too thick for pliancy, some too thin for strength. Several would do
very well but for the abundant variety that affords a chance of finding
something better. Presently he emerges at the farther fence, having
traversed the covert from end to end, but his hands are still empty,
and he shakes his head, thinking he may have been over-fastidious
in his choice. A straight stick is no easier to find than would be a
four-leaved shamrock.
The man who goes to buy a town house or rent a place in the
country experiences the same difficulty. Up-stairs and down-stairs he
travels, inspecting kitchen-ranges, sinks and sculleries, attics,
bedrooms, boudoirs, and housemaids’ closets, till his legs ache, his
brain swims, and his temper entirely gives way. In London, if the
situation is perfect, there is sure to be no servants’ hall, or the
accommodation below-stairs leaves nothing to be desired, but he
cannot undertake to reside so far from his club. These difficulties
overcome, he discovers the butler’s pantry is so dark no servant of
that fastidious order will consent to stay with him a week. In the
country, if the place is pretty the neighbourhood may be
objectionable: the rent is perhaps delightfully moderate, but he must
keep up the grounds and pay the wages of four gardeners. Suitable
in every other respect, he cannot get the shooting; or if no such
drawbacks are to be alleged, there is surely a railway through the
park, and no station within five miles. Plenty of shamrocks grow, you
see, of the trefoil order, green, graceful, and perfectly symmetrical. It
is that fourth leaf he looks for, which creates all his difficulties.
The same with the gentleman in search of a horse, the same with
Cœlebs in search of a wife. If the former cannot be persuaded to put
up with some little drawback of action, beauty, or temper, he will
never know that most delightful of all partnerships, the sympathy
existing between a good horseman and his steed. If the latter
expects to find a perfection really exist, which he thinks he has
discovered while dazzled by the glamour surrounding a man in love,
he deserves to be disappointed, and he generally is. Rare, rare
indeed are the four-leaved shamrocks in either sex; thrice happy
those whom Fate permits to win and wear them even for a day!
What is it we expect to find? In this matter of marriage more than
in any other our anticipations are so exorbitant that we cannot be
surprised if our “come-down” is disheartening in proportion.
“Where is the maiden of mortal strain

That may match with the Baron of Triermain?
She must be lovely, constant, and kind,
Holy and pure, and humble of mind,” etc.
(How Sir Walter runs in my head to-night.) Yes, she must be all this,
and possess a thousand other good qualities, many more than are
enumerated by Iago, so as never to descend for a moment from the
pedestal on which her baron has set her up. Is this indulgent? is it
even reasonable? Can he expect any human creature to be always
dancing on the tight-rope? Why is Lady Triermain not to have her
whims, her temper, her fits of ill-humour, like her lord? She must not
indeed follow his example and relieve her mind by swearing “a good,
round, mouth-filling oath,” therefore she has the more excuse for
feeling at times a little captious, a little irritable, what she herself calls
a little cross. Did he expect she was an angel? Well, he often called
her one, nay, she looks like it even now in that pretty dress, says my
lord, and she smiles through her tears, putting her white arms round
his neck so fondly that he really believes he has found what he
wanted till they fall out again next time.
Men are very hard in the way of exaction on those they love. All
“take” seems their motto, and as little “give” as possible. If they
would but remember the golden rule and expect no more than
should be expected from themselves, it might be a better world for
everybody. I have sometimes wondered in my own mind whether
women do not rather enjoy being coerced and kept down. I have
seen them so false to a kind heart, and so fond of a cruel one. Are
they slaves by nature, do you conceive, or only hypocrites by
education? I suppose no wise man puzzles his head much on that
subject. They are all incomprehensible and all alike!
“How unjust!” exclaims Bones, interrupting me with more vivacity
than usual. “How unsupported an assertion, how sweeping an
accusation, how unfair, how unreasonable, and how like a man! Yes,
that is the way with every one of you; disappointed in a single
instance, you take refuge from your own want of judgment, your own
mismanagement, your own headlong stupidity, in the condemnation
of half the world! You open a dozen oysters, and turn away
disgusted because you have not found a pearl. You fall an easy prey
to the first woman who flatters you, and plume yourself on having
gained a victory without fighting a battle. The fortress so easily won
is probably but weakly garrisoned, and capitulates ere long to a fresh
assailant. When this has happened two or three times, you veil your
discomfiture under an affectation of philosophy and vow that women
are all alike, quoting perhaps a consolatory scrap from Catullus—
‘Quid levius plumâ? pulvis. Quid pulvere? ventus.

Quid vento? mulier. Quid muliëre? nihil?’
But Roman proverbs and Roman philosophy are unworthy and

delusive. There is a straight stick in the wood if you will be satisfied
with it when found; there is a four-leaved shamrock amongst the
herbage if you will only seek for it honestly on your knees. Should
there be but one in a hundred women, nay, one in a thousand, on
whom an honest heart is not thrown away, it is worth while to try and
find her. At worst, better be deceived over and over again than sink
into that deepest slough of depravity in which those struggle who,
because their own trust has been outraged, declare there is no faith
to be kept with others; because their own day has been darkened,
deny the existence of light.
“You speak feelingly,” I observe, conscious that such unusual
earnestness denotes a conviction he will get the worst of the debate.
“You have perhaps been more fortunate than the rest. Have you
found her, then, this hundredth woman, this prize, this pearl, this
black swan, glorious as the phœnix and rare as the dodo? Forgive
my argumentum ad hominem, if I may use the expression, and
forgive my urging that such good fortune only furnishes one of those
exceptions which, illogical people assert, prove the rule.” There is a
vibration of his teeth wanting only lips to become a sneer, while he
replies—
“In my own case I was not so lucky, but I kept my heart up and
went on with my search to the end.”
“Exactly,” I retort in triumph; “you, too, spent a lifetime looking for
the four-leaved shamrock, and never found it after all. But I think
women are far more unreasonable than ourselves in this desire for
the unattainable, this disappointment when illusion fades into reality.
Not only in their husbands do they expect perfection, and that, too, in
defiance of daily experience, of obvious incompetency, but in their
servants, their tradespeople, their carriages, their horses, their
rooms, their houses, the dinners they eat, and the dresses they
wear. With them an avowal of incapacity to reconcile impossibilities
stands for wilful obstinacy, or sheer stupidity at best. They believe
themselves the victims of peculiar ill-fortune if their coachman gets
drunk, or their horses go lame; if milliners are careless or ribbons
unbecoming; if chimneys smoke, parties fall through, or it rains when
they want to put on a new bonnet. They never seem to understand
that every ‘if’ has its ‘but,’ every pro its con. My old friend, Mr.
Bishop, of Bond Street, the Democritus of his day (and may he live
as long!), observed to me many years ago, when young people went
mad about the polka, that the new measure was a type of everything
else in life, ‘What you gain in dancing you lose in turning round.’ Is it
not so with all our efforts, all our undertakings, all our noblest
endeavours after triumph and success? In dynamics we must be
content to resign the maximum of one property that we may preserve
the indispensable minimum of another, must allow for friction in
velocity, must calculate the windage of a shot. In ethics we must
accept fanaticism with sincerity, exaggeration with enthusiasm, over-
caution with unusual foresight, and a giddy brain with a warm,
impulsive heart. What we take here we must give yonder; what we
gain in dancing we must lose in turning round!
“But no woman can be brought to see this obvious necessity. For
the feminine mind nothing is impracticable. Not a young lady eating
bread and butter in the school-room but cherishes her own vision of
the prince already riding through enchanted forests in her pursuit.
The prince may turn out to be a curate, a cornet, or a count, a duke
or a dairy-farmer, a baronet or a blacking-maker, that has nothing to
do with it. Relying on her limitless heritage of the possible, she feels
she has a prescriptive right to the title, the ten thousand a year, the
matrimonial prize, the four-leaved shamrock. Whatever else turns
up, she considers herself an ill-used woman for life, unless all the
qualities desirable in man are found united in the person and
fortunes of her husband; nay, he must even possess virtues that can
scarce possibly co-exist. He must be handsome and impenetrable,
generous and economical, gay and domestic, manly but never from
her side, wise yet deferring to her opinion in all things, quick-sighted,
though blind to any drawbacks or shortcomings in herself. Above all,
must he be superlatively content with his lot, and unable to discover
that by any means in his matrimonial venture, ‘what he gained in
dancing he has lost in turning round.’
“I declare to you I think if Ursidius[2] insists on marrying at all, that
he had better select a widow; at least he runs at even weights
against his predecessor, who, being a man, must needs have
suffered from human weakness and human infirmities. The chances
are that the dear departed went to sleep after dinner, hated an open
carriage, made night hideous with his snores under the connubial
counterpane, and all the rest of it. A successor can be no worse,
may possibly appear better; but if he weds a maiden, he has to
contend with the female ideal of what a man should be! and from
such a contest what can accrue but unmitigated discomfiture and
disgrace?
“Moreover, should he prove pre-eminent in those manly qualities
women most appreciate, he will find that even in those they prefer to
accept the shadow for the substance, consistently mistaking
assertion for argument, volubility for eloquence, obstinacy for
resolution, bluster for courage, fuss for energy, and haste for speed.
“On one of our greatest generals, remarkable for his gentle,
winning manner in the drawing-room as for his cool daring in the
field, before he had earned his well-merited honours, I myself heard
this verdict pronounced by a jury of maids and matrons: ‘Dear! he’s
such a quiet creature, I’m sure he wouldn’t be much use in a battle!’
No; give them Parolles going to recover his drum, and they have a
champion and a hero exactly to their minds, but they would scarcely
believe in Richard of the Lion-Heart if he held his peace and only set
his teeth hard when he laid lance in rest.
“Therefore it is they tug so unmercifully at the slender thread that
holds a captive, imagining it is by sheer strength the quiet creature
must be coerced. Some day the pull is harder than usual, the thread
breaks, and the wild bird soars away, free as the wind down which it
sails, heedless of lure and whistle, never to return to bondage any
more. Then who so aghast as the pretty, thoughtless fowler, longing
and remorseful, with the broken string in her hand?
“She fancied, no doubt, her prisoner was an abnormal creature,
rejoicing in ill-usage; that because it was docile and generous it must
therefore be poor in spirit, slavish in obedience, and possessing no
will of its own. She thought she had found a four-leaved shamrock,
and this is the result!
“But I may talk for ever and end where I began. Men you may
convince by force of argument, if your logic is very clear and your
examples or illustrations brought fairly under their noses; but with the
other sex, born to be admired and not instructed, you might as well
pour water into a sieve. Can you remember a single instance in
which with these, while a word of entreaty gained your point
forthwith, you might not have exhausted a folio of argument in vain?”
He thinks for a minute, and then answers deliberately, as if he had
made up his mind—
“I never knew but one woman who could understand reason, and
she wouldn’t listen to it!”
CHAPTER VIII
RUS IN URBE
Romæ Tibur Amem, ventosus. Tibure Romam! quoth the Latin

satirist, ridiculing his own foibles, like his neighbour’s, with the
laughing, half-indulgent banter that makes him the pleasantest, the
chattiest, and the most companionable of classic writers. How he
loved the cool retirement of his Sabine home, its grassy glades, its
hanging woodlands, its fragrant breezes wandering and whispering
through those summer slopes, rich in the countless allurements of a
landscape that—
“Like Albunea’s echoing fountain,

All my inmost heart hath ta’en;
Give me Anio’s headlong torrent,
And Tiburnus’ grove and hills,
And its orchards sparkling dewy,
With a thousand wimpling rills,”
as Theodore Martin translates his Horace, or thus, according to Lord

Ravensworth—
“Like fair Albunea’s sybil-haunted hall,

By rocky Anio’s echoing waterfall,
And Tibur’s orchards and high-hanging wood,
Reflected graceful in the whirling flood.”
His lordship, you observe, who can himself write Latin lyrics as
though he had drunk with Augustus, and capped verses with Ovid,
makes the second syllable of Albunea long, and a very diffuse
argument might be held on this disputed quantity. Compare these
with the original, and say which you like best—
“Quam domus Albuneæ resonantis,

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Solve the problem.

Answer the question True or False.

Solve the problem.

Variable N Lo 95% CI Mean Up 95% CI SD

Answer the question True or False.

20) The confidence level is the confidence coefficient expressed as a percentage.

Solve the problem.

22) Which information is not shown on the screen below?

A) the confidence level

Variable N Lo 95% CI Mean Up 95% CI SD

Variable N Lo 95% CI Mean Up 95% CI SD

a. Find a 90% confidence interval for the population mean μ.

SAMPLE MEAN OF X = 46,400

UPPER LIMIT = 54,013.6

At what level of reliability is the confidence interval made?

SAMPLE MEAN OF X = 46,300

UPPER LIMIT = 52,550.6

Which of the following is a practical interpretation of the interval above?

SAMPLE MEAN OF X = 46,600

UPPER LIMIT = 57,166.70

SAMPLE MEAN OF X = 46300

UPPER LIMIT = 51003.90

Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population mean.

SAMPLE PROPORTION = .396226

UPPER LIMIT = .46171

Is the sample large enough for the interval to be valid?

Answer the question True or False.

Solve the problem.

SAMPLE PROPORTION = .386393

UPPER LIMIT = .464240

What proportion of the sampled students prefer foreign automobiles?

SAMPLE PROPORTION = .396

UPPER LIMIT = .460

Which of the following is a correct practical interpretation of the interval?

SAMPLE PROPORTION = .396

UPPER LIMIT = .460

yes no no yes no no yes yes no no

Answer the question True or False.

the lower endpoint of a confidence interval for σ2 .

find the upper endpoint of a confidence interval for σ2 .

“Shelelagh, their plans was well-nigh after baulking,

“And better he loved, that monarch bold,

“Where is the maiden of mortal strain

‘Quid levius plumâ? pulvis. Quid pulvere? ventus.

But Roman proverbs and Roman philosophy are unworthy and

Romæ Tibur Amem, ventosus. Tibure Romam! quoth the Latin

“Like Albunea’s echoing fountain,

as Theodore Martin translates his Horace, or thus, according to Lord

“Like fair Albunea’s sybil-haunted hall,