Techno-economic evaluation of the potential of CO2 storage and Enhanced Oil

Recovery in the Niger-Delta Hydrocarbon Basin using reservoir simulation: Case

Study.
Precious Ogbeiwi 1,* , Karl D Stephen 1
1
Institute of GeoEnergy Engineering, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, EH14 4AS, UK.
*
Corresponding Author

This manuscript has been submitted for publication in Journal of Petroleum Exploration and
Technology. Please note that the manuscript is undergoing peer review and is yet to be formally accepted
for publication. Subsequent versions of this manuscript may have slightly different content. Please feel free
to contact the corresponding author; we welcome feedback

1
Abstract:
The constant dependence on fossil fuel combustion for energy and industrial activities results
in global warming and climate change due to the increased atmospheric concentration of
greenhouse gases such as CO2. CO2 storage in mature petroleum reservoirs is considered one
of the most viable ways to reduce CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The Niger-Delta
hydrocarbon basin holds significant volumes of petroleum and is, therefore, a prime
candidate for CO2 storage. This study uses a case study of a mature oil reservoir to assess the
techno-economic potential for CO2-enhanced oil recovery and storage in the Niger Delta. The
methodology used a suitable screening criterion to assess the feasibility of the case study
reservoir for CO2 EOR and storage. The reservoir’s carbon storage and incremental oil
recovery potentials were then estimated. A new economic model for the CO2 storage project
in the Niger-Delta petroleum basin was developed and applied to establish the commercial
viability of the CO2 flooding project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were then
performed to assess the economic risks associated with the project. Our results showed that
the properties of the reservoir make it suitable for miscible CO2 injection and that the
reservoir has huge potential for enhancing oil production by CO2 injection while storing a
vast amount of the injected carbon in the subsurface. The economic study and uncertainty
analysis results also revealed that CO2-enhanced oil recovery and storage in the Niger-Delta
basin is economically viable even under economic uncertainties, and a relatively low oil
price.

1. INTRODUCTION
Human activities such as the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass, bushfires, and various
manufacturing and mining processes all contribute to higher CO2 and other greenhouse gas
(GHG) concentrations. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), CO2 emissions
from the combustion of fossil fuels are the most significant source of rising CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere, accounting for approximately 75% of current global
emissions (IEAGHG, 2009). The most substantial emissions come from power plants and
high-energy-consuming industries, and mechanisms such as carbon capture and sequestration
(CCS) are now in place to ensure that these sectors drastically reduce emissions. (Aminu,
Nabavi, Rochelle, & Manovic, 2017).

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CCS is a set of procedures that begin with capturing CO2 from high-carbon-emitting
industrial and utility plants such as oil and gas facilities, power plants, cement factories, and
so on, transporting it to subsurface storage via trucking for small volumes or piping networks
for larger volumes, and then permanently storing it in a secure reservoir using a variety of
options. According to the International Energy Agency's 2008 Energy Technology
Perspective Report, CCS could eliminate nearly 20% of global CO2 emissions by 2050
(IEAGHG, 2009). Because of various variables, including economic considerations,
accessibility of the storage site, and secure storage of the injected gas in the subsurface,
underground CO2 storage in geological formations has been recognised as the best
sequestration option. Furthermore, the existence of highly permeable rock and an
impermeable layer of capping seals in these storage limits the possibility of CO2 leakage from
the reservoir (Safi, Agarwal, & Banerjee, 2016). As a result, subsurface geological storages
provide long-term subsurface CO2 storehouse, lowering GHG emissions in the atmosphere,
particularly when sequestration is carried out on a big scale. Sequestration in geological
formations, according to Leung et al., (2014), can reduce emissions from power plants by
80-90% when fully implemented.

Because of its various advantages, CO2 storage in matured or depleted petroleum reservoirs,
such as those explored in this work, is one of the viable geological storage choices. Firstly,
substantial studies on depleted and mature petroleum reservoirs have been undertaken prior to
and during petroleum resource development and production, thus their storage capacity is
rather well known. There are also surface and subsurface facilities, including as injectors and
pipeline networks, that can be utilised for CO2 storage with or without minor modifications
(Bachu et al., 2004). Finally, mature petroleum reservoirs are thought to be favourable for
CO2 storage and increased oil recovery due to an excellent geologic seal or caprock that has
contained hydrocarbons for an extended period of time. Furthermore, the geological features
of these reservoirs are rather well understood, lowering the amount of related uncertainties
and dangers, especially when compared to alternative kinds of underground CO2 storage
(Stewart, Johnson, Heinemann, Wilkinson, & Haszeldine, 2018).

CO2 storage in depleted oil and gas or other geo-energy reservoirs also improves the energy
resource recovery potential, making them more economically viable (Aminu et al., 2017;
Leung et al., 2014). Because the global average recovery factor in a typical petroleum
reservoir is approximately 35-40%, enhanced hydrocarbon recovery techniques in mature or
depleted reservoirs using CO2 as the injection fluid are widely used globally to improve

3
recovery (Stalkup, 1978; Zahoor et al., 2011; Aminu et al., 2017). The increased revenue
generated by this incremental production could help offset the additional expenditures
associated with CO2 injection (Godec et al., 2013; Solomon, 2006). Carbon capture,
utilisation, and storage (CCUS) activities utilise captured CO2 as an injection fluid for better
petroleum resources or geothermal system recovery for higher energy production (Safi et al.,
2016).

This study investigates the potential of West Africa's offshore Niger-Delta hydrocarbon
region for CCUS, i.e., long-term secured CO2 storage and enhanced oil recovery. To do so,
we used a suitable screening criterion to assess the suitability of a mature turbidite petroleum
reservoir in the Niger Delta hydrocarbon province for CO2 enhanced oil recovery and
sequestration, determining the minimum miscibility pressure, and evaluating the storage and
hydrocarbon production capacities. The theoretical and effective storage capacity of the case
study reservoir was evaluated using well-established methodologies, available data, and full-
physics numerical simulations of the case study reservoir. Because the economic feasibility
of a project has a greater influence on decision-making than its technical feasibility, a novel
economic model for the CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) process in the Niger-Delta case
study was then presented in order to estimate the Net Present Value (NPV) of the region's
CO2 EOR and storage processes. The NPV, the objective function, and a methodology that
included sensitivity analysis, experimental design for uncertainty sampling, and uncertainty
analysis using Monte Carlo simulation were then used to examine the economics and
commercial risk of the CO2 flooding project.

2. BACKGROUND
2.1. Screening of Reservoirs for CO2 storage. To assess the viability of a reservoir
candidate for CO2 storage, acceptable screening criteria are applied (Raza et al., 2016).
Relevant studies has been conducted to define appropriate screening criteria for CO2
sequestration in aquifers, geothermal, and petroleum (oil and gas) resources (Chadwick et al.,
2008; Kovscek, 2002; Ramírez, Hagedoorn, Kramers, Wildenborg, & Hendriks, 2010; Raza
et al., 2016; Solomon, 2006). Kovscek, (2002) devised a screening criterion for depleted oil
reserves for CO2 sequestration. Formation thickness, depth, storage capacity, fluid volumes in
place, and permeability were all considered. CO2 density was identified as an important
component for the site selection procedure in his work. The relationship between
hydrocarbon production and faults and fracture reactivations was also highlighted. Solomon
(2006) established a selection criterion for an EOR technique that takes into account

4
parameters such as injection depth, CO2 and brine density, reservoir properties, the presence
of contaminants, and storage durations. Chadwick et al., (2008) evaluated a localised-scale
criterion based on results and observations from five European CO2 injection operations in
their analysis.. Ramírez et al., (2010) used a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) technique to
develop a screening criterion for rating the viability and storage capacity of reservoirs in the
Netherlands, such as aquifers, gas, and oil reservoirs, for long-term carbon sequestration.
They identified storage capacity, prices, and reservoir sites as crucial screening parameters.
Raza et al., (2016) developed a more robust screening criterion for mature hydrocarbon gas
reserves using the factors described by Chadwick et al., (2008) and additional significant
factors in their research. Table 1 outlines some of the screening criteria reported in previous
research and by other authors.

To consider miscible CO2 EOR flood in a reservoir, the reservoir pressure, Pi, must be at
least 200 psi higher than the measured minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) of the reservoir
oil, and the Pi/MMP ratio must be greater than or equal to 1 (Bachu, 2003). Furthermore,
faults can only be categorised as seals if they have a permeability of less than 0.1 mD and are
surrounded by impermeable rocks such as clay and evaporites (Van Der Meer, 2005).

5
 Table 1. A summary of screening criteria for CO2 storage sites.

Reservoir Reservoir Crude

CO2 Storage Seal Reservoir Oil Pay Depth of Oil Gravity Res.
Pressure type Seal properties Pressure, Φ (%) K (mD) Kv/kh oil Oil Viscosity
Capacity composition Composition Saturation thickness injection (0API) Temp.
studied psia density (mPa.s)

Miscible > 8.3 MPa < 3000m < 900C

Carcoana, (1982) > 30% >1 < 0.8227 <2 > 40
Oil (1200 psia) (9800ft) (1950F)

Taber, (1983) Oil > 30% < 0.8948 > 700m < 15 > 26

> 10.3 < 12

Klins, (1984) >25% < 0.8762 > 914m > 30
MPa

Zhao, (2001) Oil > 20% < 0.9218 < 762m > 22
< 10

Bachu et al., 0.8924 –

Oil > 7.6 MPa > 25% 27 - 48 32 – 1200C
(2004) 0.7883
10 – 15
Thin
MPa > Low Kv > 27
Solomon, (2006) Oil reservoir > 600m
MMP (< 0.5) ( Light oils)
(< 20m)

> the total CO2 Caprock must

Must be salt,
production not have faults
Chadwick et al., anhydrite, 30 – 100 1000 –
Oil from the and a thickness > 20 > 300 >> 20m
(2008) shale or g/L 2500m
source. between 20 -
claystone
100m
Total
estimated
Caprock must
Depleted capacity >
not have faults 800 –
Raza et al., (2016) Gas amount of CO2 10 – 20 10 – 100 Low 20 - 50m
and be between 2000m
reservoir produced from
20 – 100m thick
source.

≥ 4 Mt for Aquifer: Limestone,

Salt,
Aquifer Aquifer and ≥ Petroleum systems:
Ramírez et al., No faults with anhydrite,
and oil 10 Mt for limestone, > 10 >= 200 > 10m ≥ 800m
(2010) thickness ≥ 10m shale or
reservoir petroleum sandstones, siltstone,
claystone
reservoirs carbonate

6
2.2. Reservoir Properties of the Storage Site. The Niger-Delta Basin is located in the
Gulf of Guinea, West Africa, and stretches throughout the Niger-Delta hydrocarbon region.
Since the Eocene period, it has advanced southwestward, resulting in a series of depo-belts
that are its most active region at each stage of formation and form one of the world's largest
regressive deltas with an area of approximately 300,000 km2 (Doust H. & Omatsola E. M.,
1990, Kulke, 1995 as cited by Oyeyemi et al., 2018). The average thickness of the sediment
at the middle of the depo-belt is around 10 km, with an estimated volume of 500,000 km3
(Kaplan et al., (1994) as cited by Tuttle et al., (1999)). The interested reader is referred to
studies by Doust H. & Omatsola E. M., (1990); Kehinde & Ahzegbobor, (2015); Liu et al.,
(2013a); Ofurhie, Lufadeju, Agha, & Ineh, (2008); Opara, (2011); Stacher, (1995); Tuttle et
al., (1999) for a better understanding of Niger Delta geology.
In summary, the Niger-Delta hydrocarbon province is made up of a regressive clastic
sequence with a maximum thickness of approximately 9,000-12,000 m (29,500-39,400 ft.)
and a surface area of nearly 75,000 km2, making it suitable for CO2 storage (Doust H. &
Omatsola E. M., 1990; Umar, Gholami, Nayak, Shah, & Adamu, 2020). The basin's faulting
intensity is moderate, and its hydrogeology is distinguished by an excellent regional flow
system (Umar et al., 2020). The basin is considered a mature hydrocarbon province due to its
significant exploration and production history. The basin is divided into three distinct
formations that characterise its depositional facies and are classified based on their shale
volumes: the Akata, Agbada, and Benin Formations. Relevant investigations by other authors
(Luna, 2013; Tuttle et al., 1999; Liu et al., 2013; Namdie et al., 2017; Opara, 2011; Oyeyemi
et al., 2018; Umar et al., 2020). provide further information concerning these formations.
Figure 1 depicts a dip section of the Niger Delta, highlighting three unique formations.

7
Figure 1. Schematic of the Niger Delta dip section (Modified from Weber and Daukoru,
1975 as cited by Adegoke et al., 2017)

The Niger-Delta hydrocarbon basin has the most natural gas reserves in Africa, and its
hydrocarbon exploration and production (E&P) activities have continuously released
enormous amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, primarily due to flaring of unwanted
produced gas (Oni & Oyewo, 2011). The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC
statistical bulletins 1997 - 2011) (see Appendix) contains the distribution of gas sources in the
Niger Delta, as well as a statistical analysis of the volumes of gas produced and the
percentage of flared gas from hydrocarbon reservoirs in the basin (Umar et al., 2020). Figure
2 depicts the table graphically as well as a map of the Niger-Delta with treservoir locations
and volumes of gas produced and flared. In some offshore areas, up to 100% of the produced
gas is flared. It depicts the hydrocarbon province's abundance of gas flares, which can be
utilised as potential source points. The CO2 produced by flaring activities can be captured and
securely stored in the subsurface utilising known carbon capture technology. For example,
captured gas can be used to boost oil and gas recovery by using CO2 EOR to maintain
reservoir pressure and increase oil and gas production, or it can be injected and securely
stored in subsurface rocks for future use.

8
Figure 2. Map of the Niger Delta showing gas sources, the amount of gas produced and
flared from hydrocarbon reservoirs in the basin (from Umar et al., 2020)

To reduce gas flaring, the Federal Government of Nigeria and the oil firms operating in the
area established certain approaches to gas utilisation programmes (Umar et al., 2020). These
options include gas-to-power (GTP) plants and gas gathering projects that were implemented
to support the government's efforts to provide gas for export to the worldwide market. Other
techniques include using the gas as a raw material in petrochemical facilities, re-injection for
hydrocarbon reservoir management, and using the gas as fuel in local manufacturing units.
Carbon emissions from these gas usage schemes are also significant CO2 sources for CCUS
in the Niger-Delta region. Cement manufacture, fertiliser production, and other chemical
businesses in various regions of the basin are also point sources of pollution (i.e., CO2
emissions in the basin).

Carbon emissions from gas flaring owing to hydrocarbon E&P activities were considered the
principal source of CO2 for CCS efforts in the basin in this paper based on these discussions
and studies conducted by Oni and Oyewo, (2011) and Umar et al., (2020). The flared carbon
was anticipated to be captured using well-established carbon capture technologies such as
post-combustion, pre-combustion, and oxyfuel combustion methods and then injected into the
subsurface formation for secure storage and EOR (Leung et al., 2014; Rhodes, 2013).

9
2.3. Case Study: Field Description and the Reservoir Simulation Model. The case study
reservoir is a 4450-foot-deep undersaturated oil reservoir in the offshore Niger Delta. The
primary drive during the early stages of reservoir drainage was provided by reservoir fluid
expansion. However, as drainage progressed, the massive support supplied by the underlying
aquifer provided the energy required for production (Arinkoola, Onuh, & Ogbe, 2016). Due
to hydraulic faulting, the porous medium is divided into four zones with absolute
permeabilities ranging from 100 to 1300 mD (a mean of 500 mD) and porosities ranging
from 10 to 27% (an average of 13.94%) (Precious Ogbeiwi, Stephen, & Arinkoola, 2020).
Arinkoola et al., (2016) provides a full summary of the case study reservoir parameters to
interested readers.
Arinkoola et al., (2016) demonstrated the case study's original geostatic model and primary
production method. Ogbeiwi et al., (2020) described the secondary (waterflood) production
approach. Figure 3 depicts the position of the wells on a map showing the reservoir's
porosity. The numerical simulation model was constructed on a grid of 100 × 100 x 25 cells
representing the x, y, and z directions.

Figure 3. Top-surface reservoir model with porosity distribution and well placement.

Each cell measured an average of 300 × 300 x 1ft and was constructed using corner-point
geometry. The fluid contacts, namely gas-oil and oil-water, were located at 4444 and 4585
feet, respectively, and the numerical simulations were carried out using the Schlumberger
E300 compositional reservoir simulator. The model's properties are summarised in Table 2.

10
Table 2. Average properties of the case study reservoir model

Property Value
Porosity, ø 13.94%

Saturation of water at oil-water 27%

contact, Sw

Sandstone net-to-gross, NTG 87%

Permeability, k 500mD

Reservoir thickness, 250ft

Initial reservoir pressure, Pi 1950psia

Initial reservoir temperature, Ti 1100F

Oil viscosity, µo 0.31cP

Water viscosity, µw 0.395cP

Oil density, ρo 57.98 lb/ft3 (0.929 t/m3)

Water density, ρw 62.43 lb/ft3

Reference reservoir depth 4450ft

Oil initial formation volume factor, 1.22 RB/STB

(FVF)

Anisotropy (kV/kH) 0.6

Due to the absence of relative permeability functions for the case study reservoir, the
measurements from an analogous reservoir were modified through a history-matching routine
and applied to the Niger-Delta turbidite reservoir (Arinkoola & Ogbe, 2015). Two-phase
relative permeability curves were presented, and the Stone II model was used to compute the
three-phase curves. Figure 4 depicts the relative permeability curves for the oil-water and
gas-oil systems for the various reservoir areas studied in this study.

11
 1 0.8
Region 1 Krg
Region 1 Krw (a) Region 1 Krog (b)
0.8
Region 1 Krow 0.6 Region 2 krg
Region 2 Krw Region 2 krog
0.6 Region 2 Krow Region 3 krg
Region 3 Krw Region 3 krog

Kr
Kr

0.4
Region 3 Krow
0.4

0.2
0.2

0 0
0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Sw Sg

Figure 4. Relative permeability functions for the (a) oil-water and (b) gas-oil systems

2.4. The compositional fluid model. Complex flow interactions with phase behaviour are
captured and modelled by compositional fluid models (Li & Durlofsky, 2016). Since they can
predict the reservoir's phase behaviour and displacement behaviour, the actual compositions
of hydrocarbon phases due to their complicated PVT behaviour are explicitly accounted for.
Compositional simulations can model miscible floods (Al-Mudhafar et al., 2018a; Esmaiel et
al., 2007; Naderi and Simjoo, 2019; Vahidi et al., 2014). The Schlumberger ECLIPSE PVTi
software was used to create a compositional model for the numerical modelling of reservoir
fluid flow and phase behaviour during the CO2 enhanced oil recovery in this investigation.
Using a modified Peng-Robinson Equation of State (EOS), the compositional model was
divided into seven components. Table 3 shows the PVT parameters employed in this
investigation, while Table 4 shows the initial oil composition.

Table 3. EOS parameters for the different components of the fluid model.
Component Names CO2 C1 C2-nC4 iC5-C6 HYP01 HYP02 HYP03
Molecular Weights 44.01 16.04 38.4 72.82 135.82 257.75 330.998
(g/mol)
Omega A 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46
Omega B 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08
Critical T (K) 376.244 215.626 353.668 469.3 621.341 779.695 847.748
Critical P (bar) 47.73 81.303 51.576 35.747 25.142 13.861 10.318
Acentric Factors 0.142 0.47 0.136 0.224 0.438 0.837 1.056
Volume Shift -0.083 0.074 -0.086 -0.043 0.022 0.226 0.334
Component Parachors 153.228 74.912 137.52 233.896 393.596 662.45 843.128
Mol Fraction, frac. 0.0095 0.1904 0.1142 0.1428 0.2761 0.1428 0.1242

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Table 4. Composition of the initial oil
Component CO2 C1 C2 – nC4 iC5 – C6 HYP1 HYP2 HYP3
Initial oil (%) 1.18 11.7 19.5 22 28.2 9.4 8.1

2.5. Calculating the Minimum Miscibility Pressure. The pressure threshold at which the
flood changes from immiscible to miscible displacement is defined as the minimum
miscibility pressure (MMP) (Kamari, Arabloo, Shokrollahi, Gharagheizi, & Mohammadi,
2015). This quantity, which determines the pressure at which the reservoir's oil and gas
acquire multi-contact miscibility, is an important parameter to consider when designing CO2
injection projects (Kamari et al., 2015; Martin & Taber, 1992). The efficiency of the oil
displacement by gas in a miscible flood is a function of reservoir pressure, and the
displacement process is only miscible when the pressure is at or above the MMP. The
reservoir should be operated at or above the MMP to develop multi-contact miscibility in
order to maximise hydrocarbon recovery during a miscible flood (Aghdam, Moghaddas,
Moradi, Dabiri, & Hassanzadeh, 2013; Lashkarbolooki, Eftekhari, Najimi, & Ayatollahi,
2017; Vahidi et al., 2014). As a result, inaccurate MMP calculations are detrimental, and it is
vital to precisely predict the MMP of CO2 in oil in order to model reservoir performance
during CO2 injection. To forecast the minimal miscibility pressure of CO2 in oil, two methods
are used: (1) laboratory methods, most notably the slim tube experiment; and (2) empirical,
analytical, and numerical methods.
The MMP of CO2 in oil was determined using a 1-D numerical compositional model of the
slim tube experiment and a typical sample of crude oil from the Niger Delta basin acquired
from Ghomian, (2008). The numerical simulation experiment used the Peng-Robinson EOS
compositional model. According to Vulin et al., (2018) ), the slim-tube simulation model
included 500 × 1 x 1 cells with diameters of 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1m. The injection and production
wells were located on the model's opposite sides using the petrophysical characteristics and
relative permeability functions described in the previous section. CO2 injection was
performed at a reservoir fluid volume target rate of 0.12 rm3/day in order to achieve a
constant injection rate of 2.4 PV/day, and the production well was initially operated at a
target bottom-hole pressure (BHP) of 50 bars. The producer's BHP was modified to compute
the minimum miscibility pressure of the in-situ oil with the injected gas.

The oil's MMP in CO2 was calculated to be 80 bars (Figure 5). The Schlumberger PVTi
software (2019) produced a value of 80.7 bars (about 1170.46 psia) using the Glasø

13
correlation (Glasø, 1985 as cited by Ahmadi et al., 2017). This number was similar to the
slim-tube experiment simulation results.

0.9
FOE

MMP = 80 bars
0.8

0.7
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Pressure, bars

Figure 5. MMP prediction using the slim-tube experiment simulation.

2.6. Hysteresis Effects and Residual Trapping of the Injected CO2. During CO2
flooding, the imbibition and drainage gas relative permeability curves undergo cyclic changes
(Larsen & Skauge, 1995). This phenomenon known as hysteresis is due to the trapping of the
non-wetting phase (i.e., the injected gas) during the imbibition (the water injection) phase,
where some of the gas phase gets disconnected from the remaining gas in the form of a blob
and becomes trapped and immobile (Spiteri & Juanes, 2006; Assef et al., 2019). This
phenomenon is critical to CO2 flooding because it allows for the trapping of the non-wetting
phase and hence the retention and storage of the injected CO2 in the subsurface (Arogundade
et al., 2013; Shahverdi and Sohrabi, 2015; Al-Muftah et al., 2019). Water injectivity is also
affected by the saturation of the trapped non-wetting phase. Therefore, to achieve accurate
results in the modelling of CO2 flooding, a reliable hysteresis model must be used.

The trapped gas saturation, denoted as Sgt is the most significant factor that characterises the
impact of hysteresis during the modelling of CO2 flooding (Spiteri et al., 2005). Most
hysteretic relative permeability models are based on Land’s trapping model (Land, 1968).
The trapped gas saturation is calculated using this model as follows:
,
= + (1)
,

14
where is the critical gas saturation, , is the gas saturation at flow reversal, and is the
Land’s trapping parameter, which is calculated from the bounding drainage and imbibition
curves as:
= − (2)
, ,

where , is the maximum gas saturation, and , is the maximum trapped non-
wetting phase saturation, which is described by the imbibition bounding curve. The value of
depends on the rock and fluid properties.

Killough’s hysteresis model which considers hysteresis to be a function of Land’s trapping

parameter was used in this work. This model allows the drainage and imbibition cycles to be
reversed along the same scanning curve. The gas phase‘s relative permeability along the
scanning curve is computed as follows:
( ) , . ( ) ,
= (3)
( ) ,

where
, ,
, = , + (4)
,

In Eq. (3), ( ) and ( ) are the values of the relative values on the bounding imbibition
and drainage curves, respectively. Figure 6 depicts the gas relative permeability predicted by
Killough’s model.

0.8

0.6
Krg

0.4
Drainage

0.2
Imbibition
Scanning
curve
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Sg

Figure 6. The two-phase gas relative permeability scanning curves

15
3. ESTIMATING THE ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY AND CO2 STORAGE
CAPACITY DURING CO2 EOR

3.1. Analytical Prediction. In this study, the potential for enhanced oil recovery and CO2
storage was calculated using an analytical equation and a numerical simulation model. The
methodology used to estimate CO2 storage capacity was prospect-level assessment. The
reservoir fluid storage capacity was assessed using a fluid replacement approach (Bachu et
al., 2007; IEAGHG, 2009). As a result, the theoretical and effective storage capacity, which
describe the physical and technical limits of the capacity estimate, was calculated as the mass
of CO2 that can be injected into pore spaces previously containing recovered hydrocarbon
reserves and any produced water at surface conditions.
These storage capacity estimates were based on some assumptions. First, water from the
underlying aquifer was seen during hydrocarbon production, as determined by Arinkoola et
al., (2016) 's production, pressure, and saturation history-matching approach. This effect will
be discussed more in the next section. Furthermore, despite the fact that the fluid volume data
derived from the numerical simulation represents the technically available pore space for
carbon storage, the efficiencies of the carbon storage and incremental oil recovery processes
were set at 75% to present a more realistic technical limit of the capacities estimate.
According to Bachu et al., (2004), this figure is reasonable in oil reservoirs where the density
gradient between CO2 and oil is lower than in CO2-water systems and when CO2 is injected
under miscible reservoir conditions. The effective storage capacity is represented by the
capacities calculated after using this efficiency factor.

The following section describes the calculations for the theoretical carbon storage and
enhanced oil recovery potentials. When CO2 is continually injected into the subsurface, the
analytical estimate of the reservoir's carbon storage capacity was reported as (Gozalpour et
al., 2005; Bachu et al., 2007):

= ( . ( ) − + + ) (5)

The enhanced oil recovery by CO2 injection was estimated as:

= ( . ( ) × )/ (6)

where ( )= initial oil volume, = density of CO2 at reservoir conditions (kg/m3)

and = oil density. = sweep efficiency of the flood, , and were volumes
of injected or invading water, produced water and gas respectively. The quantity . ( )

16
represented the volume of the recovered oil at surface conditions. Stevens et al., (1999)
reported the typical sweep efficiencies of miscible CO2 floods to be 2.11t/m3, and this value
was applied for the analytical estimation of the incremental oil recovery capacity due to CO2
injection.

3.2. The Effect of the Underlying Aquifer. Because the reservoir comprises an
underground aquifer, the reservoir oil and gas are in hydrodynamic equilibrium with the
aquifer water, according to Arinkoola et al., (2016). During primary production, reservoir
pressure dropped, and aquifer water invaded the reservoir, lowering the potential net reservoir
CO2 storage capacity. This can also cause reservoir pressure to rise above its initial value
during CO2 injection, albeit this is not always possible due to caprock fracturing and other
issues (Bachu et al., 2004). Furthermore, because of hysteresis effects such as changes in
irreducible water saturation, displacement of invaded aquifer water may be unachievable,
resulting in a permanent loss of storage capacity (Juanes, Spiteri, Orr, & Blunt, 2006; E. J.
Spiteri & Juanes, 2006). The history-matching procedure performed by Arinkoola et al.,
(2016) determined that considerable underlying aquifer support was required to match the
reservoir pressure and fluid production history. To account for the effects of the encroaching
water influx from the aquifer, we introduced a factor, , into the CO2 storage capacity
formula (Equation 7). This factor represented the reduction in sequestration capacity caused
by the underlying aquifer and was given as 0.97 for weak aquifers and 0.50 for oil reservoirs
with substantial aquifer support (Bachu et al., 2004; Liang, Shu, Li, Shaoran, & Qing, 2009).
According to Liang et al., (2009), this factor can also account for reservoir volume decline
due to injected water or aquifer water invasion.
Therefore, the effective storage of CO2 was estimated using:

= ( . ( ) − + + ) . . (7)

and the enhanced oil recovery by CO2 injection was estimated as:

= ( . ( ) × × )/ (8)

where is the effective carbon sequestration coefficient which was assumed to be 75%.

3.3. Estimation by Numerical Simulation. The carbon storage capacity estimation

equations (Equations 1-4) assumed that the oil reservoir's theoretical CO2 storage capacity is
equal to the pore space previously containing the recovered fluids (oil, gas, and water). As a
result, it was necessary to use numerical simulations to validate the analytical estimations of

17
the sequestration and oil recovery potentials. This is due to the numerical simulations taking
into account the effects of water invasion, gravity segregation, viscous fingering, reservoir
heterogeneity, relative permeability hysteresis, and other factors that are largely ignored in
theoretical estimates (Bachu et al., 2004; Gozalpour et al., 2005). As a result, we calculated
the improved oil production and carbon storage potentials using full-physics simulations of a
calibrated history-match numerical model of the case study reservoir. Miscible and
immiscible CO2 injection strategies such as continuous gas injection, gravity-stabilizing gas
injection, water-alternating gas injection, and other innovative technologies are currently used
in CO2-EOR and storage (Aminu et al., 2017; Gozalpour et al., 2005; Kumar & Mandal,
2017). For clarity, we applied a numerical simulation of miscible continuous CO2 flooding of
the case study reservoir to calculate the reservoir potentials after the field had gone through
the primary and secondary production stages (Arinkoola et al., 2016; P Ogbeiwi, Stephen, &
Arinkoola, 2020). Existing wells were reworked/recompleted, and water injectors were
converted to gas injectors.
The following is the operating strategy for continuous CO2 injections: For 24 years,
continuous CO2 injection into the reservoir was carried out utilising the existing water
injectors. To guarantee that the flooding was miscible, the injector and producer BHPs were
kept above the MMP at 3000 and 1170 psia, respectively. Each producer's target production
rate was set at 1000 stb/d, while the target gas injection rate was set at 10000 Mscf/day. The
economic cut-off for the production wells was set at 50 STB/day, a gas-oil ratio of 10000
Mscf/STB, and a water cut of 95%. After 24 years, the reservoir's enhanced oil recovery
potential and carbon storage potential were determined based on the total volume of oil
produced and CO2 retained in the subsurface.

4. ECONOMIC MODEL AND RISK ANALYSIS FOR CO2 EOR AND

SEQUESTRATION PROCESSES IN THE NIGER-DELTA HYDROCARBON BASIN
The commercial viability of a project, which can be represented by an economic model, has a
greater influence on the decision-making process than the technical feasibility of the project
(Tang et al., 2014; Yang et al., 2007). As a result, the viability of a project must be quantified
in terms of its economic value rather than its technical and performance potential. We
evaluated the economics and commercial risk of the CO2 flooding project in this section. The
workflow included developing an economic model, screening and sensitivity analysis,
experimental design, and uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The
objective function in this case was the net present value (NPV) of the CO2 injection project,

18
calculated as the discounted cashflow over the 24-year injection period. This function
accounted for capital and operating costs, taxes and royalties, CO2 transportation and capture
costs, as well as appropriate incomes and penalties. The effects of cost and income
parameters on the economic objective function were investigated in our study. We used
Nigeria's current fiscal laws for oil and gas (ETF, 1993; PPT, 1990; PTDF, 1990). However,
in the absence of data and due to the sensitivity studies, reasonable assumptions were made
using data from well-established projects in similar provinces such as Brazil, China, Canada,
and others (Lawal, 2011; Tang et al., 2014; Wei et al., 2015a; He et al., 2016; Pham and
Halland, 2017; Dai et al., 2017).

The net annual cash flow profile had to be determined in order to build an economic model.
This was after deducting the yearly cash input and outflow streams, as well as the "allowable"
fixed asset depreciation. The annual cash flow was calculated using the following
relationship (Shell, 2001):
= − − − − − (9)

where was the total income, , , , and were the capital expenditure,
fixed and variable operating expenditure, royalty, and tax, respectively. was the
monetary fine for any fugitive carbon emissions. The gross revenue was made up of cash
inflows from hydrocarbon resource sales and any income earned as a result of carbon storage
in the subsurface.

The royalty and tax expenditures, and were calculated as:

= , (10)
= ( − − − ) (11)

where and are royalty and tax rates, respectively. is the fiscal depreciation, and
is the gross revenue less revenues from carbon credits. Every estimate is made on a
yearly basis. The royalty and tax disbursements are government receipts as a result of
Nigeria's fiscal policies (Lawal, 2011; Echendu and Iledare, 2016). Even though the carbon
credit generated revenue, it was taxed separately and was not included in royalty payments.
This was due to the fact that, unlike oil and gas sales income, carbon credit revenues were
unrelated to the extraction of natural resources. In addition, the expenses of decommissioning
were factored into the annual net cash flow estimate in the year of abandonment.

The NPV objective function was computed using the and was given by:

19
 = ∑ ( )
(12)

where and denoted the discount rate and project duration prior to the year of
abandonment, respectively, and i denoted the year counter. The discount rate was used to
amortise the capital expenditure over the project's lifecycle (Sun & Chen, 2022). The
analyses in this study were conducted during a period of 24 years of CO2 injection.

The discussion in the following subsections focuses on the critical variables of the NPV
objective function. We also discussed the assumptions we used in our computations.

4.1. The Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and Operating Expenditure (OPEX)

Components. The capital cost relates to well, flowlines and processing facilities.
Considerations should also be made for gas compression and CO2 compression facilities.
Given the existence of flowing producers, injectors, and existing surface facilities in the
reservoir, some of the capital costs in this study were computed based on the need to convert
the existing water injection facilities to CO2 flooding facilities (McCoy & Rubin, 2008).
Because the reservoir was a mature oil field, capital expenditures included the cost of drilling
and completing additional injectors and producers, as well as the costs of their associated
surface facilities. These were necessary to reduce well spacing, improve pattern uniformity,
and improve the fluid displacement profiles and economic incentives for the project. In
summary, the CAPEX evaluated in the study included workover expenses for current
producers and injectors, pattern production and injection equipment, CO2 processing
equipment, and drilling and completion expenditures for new wells. Costs linked with
contingencies and decommissioning were also budgeted for.
The project's operation and maintenance costs included regular daily expenses as well as
other consumable charges such as gas injection, oil treatment, CH4 treatment, water handling,
and surface and subsurface facility maintenance. Following CO2 breakthrough at the
production wells, any produced CO2 can be collected and utilised for injection with the
purchased CO2. This signifies that the cumulative volume of CO2 purchased for injection in
the field decreased with time for the particular well design.

The total annual operating cost was given as:

= O&M = O&M + O&M + O&M + O&M +C +
C + C (13)

20
A summary of the important CAPEX and OPEX components, and any assumed reference
value is shown in Tables 5 and 6, respectively.

Table 5. Components of Operating Expenditure

Variable Value Comments/ References
Fixed OPEX (%) 5 Fixed OPEX is 5% of CAPEX (Lawal,
2011; Wei et al., 2015)
Variable OPEX
Gas Injection ($/ MMscf) 580 (Gaspar Ravagnani, Ligero, & Suslick,
2009; Neal, Hou, Allinson, & Cinar,
2010)
CO2 Capture, ($/ MMscf) 1600 (Gaspar Ravagnani et al., 2009; Nogueira
& Mamora, 2005).
CO2 Compression Cost, ($/ t The mean cost of 13USD/t for Wei et al., (2015)
CO2) 1Bar of CO2 and 1USD/t for high
pressured gas from a pipeline
terminal were applied.
CH4 Treatment, ($/ MMscf) 400 A value of 20% of sale gas price was
assumed Wei et al., (2015).
Fluid Handling/ Treatment, ($ 1 for oil and water pumping, and (National Energy Board of Canada
/stb) 12 for oil treatment. (NEB), 2006)

Water Compression and 1.2 for a WAG process regardless Anthony and Mohan, (2010); Wei et al.,
Injection, ($ /m3) of pressure difference (2015)

CO2 recycling cost, ($/ t CO2) Crec = 23.66 · Q Wei et al., (2015); Tayari et al., (2015)

Daily and Consumables O & M Daily O&M = Nwell x 7596. Wei et al., (2015)
Costs, $/annum Cons. O&M = Nwell x 20,295

O & M cost for well facilities, O&Msur = Nwell x 15420 x [(d/ Wei et al., (2015)
0.5
$/annum (280 x Nwell)) + 5000];
O&Msubsur = Nwell · [5669 ·
(d/1219)]

21
Table 6. CAPEX Components
Variable Value Comments/ References
Drilling and Completions
Number of new injection wells 1 -

Number of new production wells 2 -

Cost (106 USD/well) 1.5 Tayari et al., (2015)

Surface Pipelines/Flowlines
Number of injection lines 1 One flowline per injector

Number of new production lines 2 One flowline per producer

Length per line (km) 1

Cost (106 USD/well) 0.5 Tayari et al., (2015); Cremon et al., (2020)
Processing Facilities
Peak water rate (103 stb/d) 3 Based on the secondary waterflood (Ogbeiwi et
al., 2020b)
Peak liquid rate (103 stb/d) 5 Based on the secondary waterflood (Ogbeiwi et
al., 2020)

Cost of liquid facilities (106 $ / 103stb liquid) 1.9 Wang et al., (2018)
CO2 Capture and Compression Facilities
Peak gas rate (106 scf/d) 1 This rate will decrease across the project’s
lifecycle since produced CO2 will be recycled.

Peak CO2 injection rate (106 scf/d) 1 This rate is dependent on the gas cycle time of
CO2 injection.

Unit cost of capture (106 $ / 106scf) 13 The CAPEX of a post-combustion capture process
is approx. 10x that of compression (Hill, Hovorka,
& Melzer, 2013; Kazeem Akintayo Lawal, 2011).

Unit compression cost 106 USD / MMscf) 1.3 Gaspar Ravagnani et al., (2009)
Other Components
CAPEX contingency (%) 10 Assumption (Shell, 2001)

Decommissioning cost (% of CAPEX) 25 (Kemp & Stephen, 2015; Welkenhuysen, Meyvis,

& Piessens, 2017)
CAPEX phasing (% / year) 100 CAPEX spending calculated for the first year.

4.2. Revenues and Penalties. Two sources of revenue were explored in this study:
a. The principal revenue source was earnings from the sale of recovered hydrocarbons
(oil and gas).
b. Revenues could be made as a result of the safe storage of CO2 that would otherwise
have been released into the atmosphere. This was referred to as a carbon credit.

22
The economic model also predicted that any fugitive carbon emissions would result in
penalties. This means that any stranded CO2 was subject to a carbon tax. Table 7 shows the
revenue and rates of carbon penalties as a reference.

Table 7: Components of Revenue and Penalty

Item Rate Comments/ References
Oil Price, USD/stb 70 Bloomberg, (2022)
Gas price, USD /MMscf 2000 Mokhtari et al., (2016); Hill et al.,
(2013)
Carbon Credit, USD /ton CO2 16 Mokhtari et al., (2016)
Carbon Penalty, USD /ton CO2 60 IHS MARKIT, (2016)

Yearly revenues were calculated by estimating the annual hydrocarbon output and gas
storage. Because the produced gas was more than 80% CO2 at the time, the earnings from the
sale of produced gas decreased dramatically after three years of CO2 injection. As a result,
the two principal sources of revenue were oil sales and carbon credits. The price of West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil rose from $60 per barrel (in 2019 USD) to $100 in 2022,
according to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), 2021 reference case. However, because
crude oil prices are affected by a variety of factors, a low price of $50 was used as the
minimum price, and a high price of $80 was utilised as the maximum price. In the
deterministic analysis, an average price of $70 per barrel, which was the average between
2019 and 2022, was used for economic assessment. Sensitivity analysis was performed using
50-80 USD/bbl, which simulates changes in crude oil prices.

4.3. Fiscal Policy. The Nigerian government operates three additive tax regimes in its
upstream petroleum sector: the corporation tax, the Petroleum Technology Development
Fund (PTDF) tax, and the Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFund) tax (Kazeem Akintayo
Lawal, 2011). Table 8 shows the reference values for these fiscal terms.

Table 8. Components of Fiscal Terms

Term Value Comments/ References

Corporate tax, % 30 CITA, (2004); PPT, (1990)
PTDF Tax, % 3 PTDF, (1990)
TETFund Tax, % 2 ETF, (1993)
Depreciation, % 20 NIPC, (2010)

23
 Royalty, % 8 PPT, (1990)
Discount Rate, % 10 Yang et al., (2007)

The royalty rate in the Niger Delta varies by reservoir location, and it is also affected by the

type and amount of hydrocarbons produced, as well as the price of oil (Echendu & Iledare,

2016; PIB, 2009). The royalty for offshore basins, to which the case study reservoir belongs,

is 8.0%. As a result, we applied this value to hydrocarbon royalties as well as any oil and gas

price. Table 11 shows the royalties for the various Niger Delta basins. The differential in

fiscal rates between these sites is one of the Nigerian government's measures to entice

investors to explore its offshore assets (Onwuka et al., 2012; Echendu and Iledare, 2016).

Table 9 shows the royalty conditions of Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) by location.

Table 9. Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) royalty provisions by location

Royalties (%)
Max. Water Depth (m) 100 200 500 800 1000 > 1000
Swamp/Shallow 18.5
Shelf 16.5
Deep 12.0 8.0 8.0 8.0

In this study, we followed the Nigerian government's specification (NIPC, 2010), which calls
for a straight-line depreciation technique to account for asset depreciation. Specifically, the
capital expenditure items were depreciated equally throughout the first three years after
incurring the expenditure (Kazeem A Lawal, 2011; Onwuka et al., 2012).

4.3. Parametric Studies, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. We assessed the

influence of the project's uncertain economic factors on its net present value (NPV). Table 10
illustrates the design parameters used in this study as well as the range of uncertainty for each
parameter. The uncertainties in the offshore Niger Delta hydrocarbon province's tax regimes
and fiscal policy were neglected because these are government policies and are not subject to
change like the CAPEX and OPEX variables,
The uncertainty range for each parameer was established using the existing economics of
Nigeria's hydrocarbon industry and other previously stated assumptions. Because there are no

24
CO2 EOR projects in the Niger Delta, the absence of carbon credits was believed to be the
worst-case situation, while revenue of 20 USD per tonne of CO2 stored was supposed to be
the best-case scenario. Furthermore, given the lack of a ready market for the purchase of
produced CH4 and lighter hydrocarbons, we projected that in the worst-case scenario, no
revenue would be generated from the sales of the produced gas, and that all of it would be
converted to CO2 for injection or flared as undesired gas. Finally, to account for inflation, we
assumed a maximum change of 30% in the cost of CO2 recycling and other unit operations
and capital expenditure (CAPEX).

Table 10. Economic Uncertainties and their ranges.

Economic Variable Low Median High

Oil Price, $/stb 50 70 80

Discount Rate, % 5 10 15
Carbon Credit, $/ton CO2 0 10 20
Gas (CH4) price, $/MMscf 0 2000 2500
Change in CO2 recycling cost 0 10 30
CO2 injection cost, $/MMScf 580 1000 2000
% Change in unit OPEX cost 0 10 30
Increase in CAPEX, % 0 10 30

The percentage contribution of each variable to changes in the values of the objective
function was used to illustrate the variables' influence on the objective function. The impacts
of the various factors on the objective function were calculated as the percentage contribution
of each variable, which is provided as:
, ,
% = ∑
× 100% (15)
, ,

Where , and , are the maximum and minimum values of the objective function(s)
evaluated for the minimum and maximum values of each economic variable i, respectively.
The denominator represents the sum of the numerator for all the variables.

The sensitivity analysis does not adequately follow and depict the behaviour of the project's
value, especially when numerous input parameters are changed at the same time.
Furthermore, more than conventional sensitivity analysis is required to effectively address
and quantify the effect of uncertainty resulting from the complexities of investment decisions
(Welkenhuysen, Rupert, et al., 2017). This is especially important when the input parameters

25
follow a specific trend, such as a probability distribution function (Ghaderi, Clarkson, Taheri,
& Chen, 2013). In this instance, the value of the desired objective function (the NPV in this
case) would most likely be biased towards undesirable, risky values across diverse
combinations of the input variables. The uncertain attributes of the NPV objective function
can be generated using Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), which can then be merged by
assigning an appropriate probability distribution function to each uncertain variable (Cremon,
Christie, & Gerritsen, 2020b; Jia, McPherson, Pan, Dai, & Xiao, 2018).

In this study, Monte Carlo simulations on the NPV objective function were done to analyse
the related risk of failure or success of the flooding project under economic uncertainty and to
provide a basis for the CO2 flooding project. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is a simple
yet effective method for dealing with stochastic uncertainty (Cunha, 2007). It uses a random
sampling of the uncertainty or uncertainties within its or their set ranges to provide the user or
engineer with multiple outcomes. To represent the uncertainty in the input data, a uniform
probability distribution function was assigned to each economic variable using the low,
median, and high values as described by Ghaderi et al., (2013). Table 6.9 shows the range of
uncertainties for the economic metrics. Ten thousand Monte Carlo simulations were used to
create a cumulative distribution function of the NPV response.

To create samples of economic uncertainties for the uncertainty analysis, we used the Latin-
Hypercube experimental designs. The Latin-Hypercube design is a pseudo-Monte Carlo
sampling design that uses stratified sampling in its construction, requiring the search
algorithm to be optimal (Helton & Davis, 2003). Because the values of each parameter
sample are consistently created from a multidimensional distribution, every part of the range
of the unknown variable is well represented in the sample generated by design in this design.
As a result, for sampling during uncertainty analysis, the Latin-Hypercube design is superior
to standard experimental design strategies such as the Box-Behnken design, central
composite design, and so on (Helton & Davis, 2003; Montgomery, 2008).

Figure 7 summarises the technique used in this work to assess the possibility of CO2 EOR
and storage in the Niger Delta.

26
 Calculate the MMP of the
reservoir oil in CO2.

Develop Assess the suitability of

Establish CO2 sources
Screening Criteria the case study for IOR
near the reservoir.
potential and CO2
storage.
Apply the Estimate the IOR
compositional potential and CO2 storage
simulation capacity of the reservoir.

Levelised Capital
Expenditure
Reservoir Properties
Operating costs
components Economic Model for
CO2 EOR potential Reservoir Operating
Fiscal Terms and and storage strategy
Royalties
Economic Model
Revenues and Parameters
Penalties
Compute the economic
value, NPV of the CO2
EOR and storage project.

Parametric Studies
Uncertain Economic and Sensitivity Uncertainty Analysis
Parameters Analysis

Figure 7. Methodology for assessing the potential of CO2 EOR and storage in the Niger-
Delta.

5 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

5.1. Screening Criteria for CO2 EOR and storage. Different studies have proposed
different criteria for screening reservoirs for CO2 EOR and storage, as indicated in Table 11.
The proposed criteria for this study were established by considering screening criteria from
expert studies on miscible CO2 floods. Table 11 shows these criteria, which were trimmed
from Table 1 and the reservoir case study features. Based on the first screening results, the
reservoir offers a high potential for CO2 EOR and storage. We then used material balance
volumetric calculations and numerical simulations to estimate these potentials.

27
Table 11. The Screening Criteria for CO2 miscible flooding and the criteria used in this
study.
Parameter Oil density Oil gravity Pi T (oC) µ K So Depth (m)

(g/cm3) (o API) (MPa) (mPa.s) (mD)

Carcoana (1982) < 0.8227 > 40 > 8.3 < 90 <2 >1 >0.30 < 3000

Taber, (1983) < 0.8948 >26 <15 >0.30 >700

Klins, (1984) < 0.8762 >30 >10.3 <12 >0.25 >914

Ren, (2008) 0.9218 – 0.7587 22 – 55 <120 <188 >5 0.28 – 0.64 600 – 3500

Zhao, (2001) < 0.9218 > 22 <10 >0.20

Bachu, (2004) 0.8924 – 0.7883 27 - 48 >7.5 32 – 120 >0.25

This Study < 0.93 >22 >7.5 32 – 120 <188 >1 >0.20 600 – 3500

Table 12 presents some specific properties of the reservoir. A comparison of Tables 11 and
12 shows that the properties of the reservoir are within the range required for a reservoir to be
considered for CO2 miscible flooding for EOR and carbon storage.

Table 12. The properties of this reservoir showing its suitability for CO2 miscible flooding.

Reservoir Property This Study

Permeability, K (mD) 700

Initial reservoir pressure, PR (psia) 1950 (13.45 MPa)

Initial reservoir temperature, 0F 165 (73.9 oC)

Oil Viscosity, µo (cP) 0.31

Oil Density, ρo (lb/ft3) 57.98 (0.924 g/cm3)

Reservoir Depth (ft) 4450 (1356.4 m)

5.2. Estimates of the Potential for Enhanced Oil Recovery and CO2 Storage. The pore
volumes, incremental oil recovery, and CO2 storage capacity of the case study reservoir were
evaluated using reservoir fluid volumes-in-place before and after the waterflood, as well as
fluid volumes produced. Following the secondary production stage, these volumes were
generated from the reservoir simulation model, and the gas total volume estimates included

28
both free and dissolved gas volumes. At the end of the secondary flooding, approximately
47.839 MMSTB of oil had been produced, representing approximately 58% of the original oil
reserves. Table 13 summarises the reserve estimations following flooding.

Table 13. Summary of the reserve estimates at the end of the waterflooding at surface
conditions.

Volumes Oil ( x 106 stb) Water (x 106 stb) Gas (x 106 Mscf)
Currently in Place 34.567 38614.504 13.126
Produced 47.839 85.496 19.157
Originally In Place 82.406 38700 32.283

The total volume of oil in the reservoir was approximately 82.406 MMSTB, with 47.839

MMSTB produced after primary production and the flood. At the end of secondary

production, the total gas volume was 32.283 x 106 Mscf, with 19.157 x 106 Mscf recovered.

The reservoir's theoretical and effective storage capacity were then calculated based on

current hydrocarbon (gas and oil) and water production data at the end of the waterflood

(converted to metric units at the surface conditions for conformity). Table 14 shows the

reservoir reserve estimates at the end of the waterflooding in m3.

The reservoir's technical and effective storage potentials, as well as its incremental oil

recovery potential, were then calculated using Equations 5 - 8. The CO2 storage capabilities

were calculated at subsurface circumstances, but the additional oil recovery was calculated at

surface conditions.

Table 14. Summary of the reserve estimates at the end of the waterflooding in m3 at reservoir

conditions.

Volumes Oil Water Gas

Currently in Place 6.24 6206.35 475.15
Produced 8.64 13.74 693.43
Originally In Place 14.88 6220.09 1168.58

29
Table 15 highlights the estimations of technical and effective storage capacity, as well as
incremental oil recovery following CO2 flooding. In summary, the theoretical and effective
storage capacities at reservoir conditions were 514.57 x 106 t of CO2 and 192.96 x 106 t of
CO2, respectively, or 404.64 x 106 t of CO2 and 151.74 x 106 t of CO2, respectively. The
incremental oil recovery potentials for the effective and theoretical estimates were 14.91 x
106 and 11.18 x 106 sm3 of oil, respectively.

Table 15. Summary of technical and effective estimations of storage capacity and
incremental oil recovery following CO2 flooding.
Quantity Technical Estimate Effective Estimate
Storage capacity (x106 t) 514.57 192.96

Incremental Oil Recovery (x 106 sm3) 14.91 11.18

We applied the numerical simulation of miscible CO2 flooding to the case study reservoir to
present more realistic and accurate assessments of the reservoir's potentials. The CO2 gas was
continuously injected for 24 years before the wells were shut down and production and
injection ceased. The total amount of gas and oil recovered was then used to calculate the
effective carbon storage and increased oil recovery potentials. After 24 years of continuous
CO2 injection, the volume of CO2 stored, and incremental oil recovered are depicted in Figure
8. Because the injected gas began to undergo considerable breakthroughs at the production
wells, the amount of CO2 stored in the subsurface increased steadily from the start of
injection until after 0.6 HCPV of gas had been injected. At this point, the efficient sweep of
the reservoir oil by the pre-breakthrough injected CO2 had provided more than half of the
cumulative oil recovery experienced during the CO2 flooding experiment. At the end of the
injection period, about 1.72 HCPV of CO2 gas was injected, approximately 1.23 x 109 Mscf
of CO2 (or 34.82 x 109 sm3) was stored, and approximately 18.23 MM STB (or 2.898 x 106
sm3) of oil was produced.

30
 140 20

Total Oil Production, x 10^6 MM STB

Volume of CO2 stored, x 10^6 Mscf 120

15
100

80
10
60
CO2 storage Oil production
40
5

20

0 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
HCPV, fraction

Figure 8. Cumulative volume of Gas stored, and oil produced after 24 years of continuous
CO2 injection.

5.3. Sensitivity Analysis. Figure 9a depicts the findings of the preliminary screening
analysis. The most significant economic uncertainty was the price of the produced oil, with
its volatility accounting for more than 60% of variations in the project's value. The cost of
CO2 injection and the discount rate are two other major economic uncertainties. The
fluctuation in the NPV was primarily due to changes in capital costs.
By adjusting one parameter at a time, the sensitivity of the economic uncertainty to the NPV
response shown in Figure 8b was determined. The NPV increased from 382.83 to 445.64
million USD when the oil price rose from 50 to 80 USD/stb. Furthermore, a change in the
operating cost of CO2 injection reduced the project's value by 5.35%, from 425.63 million
USD to 402.84 million USD. The changes in CAPEX and CO2 recycling costs had the least
impact on the NPV, with each variable resulting in a 0.15% decline in the project's value.
Other revenue streams, such as carbon credits and gas sales, had extremely tiny effects when
compared to the influence of oil prices. As a result, even without these earnings, the project
was still profitable at an oil price of 50 USD/stb. Figure 9 depicts the influence of the other
variables.

31
 Oil Price

CO2 Inj Cost

Economic Variable Discount Rate (a)

Gas Price

Carbon Credit

Unit OPEX cost

CO2 recycling cost

CAPEX

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
% Contribution

NPV, MM$
380 390 400 410 420 430 440 450

Oil Price

Gas Price
Economic Unc.

(b) Carbon Credit

CAPEX

Discount Rate

Water handling Cost

Water Inj. Cost

CO2 recycling cost

Min Max

Figure 9. (a) Pareto charts and (b) results of the sensitivity studies showing the key economic
uncertainties impacting NPV.

5.4. Uncertainty Analysis. The probability and cumulative distribution functions of the NPV
of the CO2 flooding project over the range of uncertainty of the economic variables were then
generated by applying 10,000 combinations of Monte Carlo samples of the economic
parameters to the NPV of the flooding project. Figure 10(a) depicts the probability
distribution function of the NPV of the CO2 storage project in the reservoir when the
economic parameters' values were uncertain. Under uncertainty, the average cost of the CO2
EOR and sequestration project was 414.24 million USD, with a standard deviation of 19.652

32
million USD, a minimum cost of 366.69 million USD, and a maximum cost of 461.58 million
USD.

0.025
Prtobability (Monte Carlo counts) Mean NPV = 414.24
(a)
0.02

0.015

0.01

0.005

0
365 385 405 425 445 465
Total NPV, million USD

1
Cumulative Distribution, fraction

0.8
(b)
0.6

0.4

0.2

0
365 385 405 425 445 465
NPV million USD

Figure 10. The (a) probability distribution function (PDF), and (b) cumulative distribution
function (CDF) of NPV after the CO2 flood, showing the P10, P50, and P90 NPV values.

Figure 10(b) depicts the Gaussian-like behaviour of the CDF of NPV following the CO2
flood. The 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the NPV were 387.79, 414.24, and 440.74
million USD, respectively. According to Welkenhuysen et al., (2017b), the spread in the NPV
from the P10 to the P90 from the deterministic value, i.e., the mean or P50, was detected
from the CDF plot, suggesting the presence of uncertainty in the forecast of the economic
value of the CO2 flooding project.

Figure 11 depicts the variations in the project's net cash flow (NCF) with time for different
price scenarios. For example, at the lowest price of 50 USD/stb, the net income ranges from

33
approximately -39 million USD in the first year to approximately 117 million USD in the
sixth year. In the case study, the project reaches break-even and becomes cost-effective (with
NCF > 0) after the first year (particularly, 0.5 years) of CO2 flooding and injection of 0.03
HCPV of CO2. This was due in part to relatively modest initial capital expenditures (CAPEX)
due to existing infrastructure such as wells, pipelines, separators, and so on, as well as large
revenue from the sale of incremental oil recovery. The annual cash flow from the project
increased steadily until the end of the seventh year, during which time approximately 0.6
HCPV of gas was injected, 9.41 MMSTB of additional oil produced, and 8.41 x 109 ft3 of
carbon was stored.

200

150
Cashflow, million USD

100

50

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

-50
Years
50 USD/stb 60 USD/stb 70 USD/stb
75 USD/stb 80 USD/stb

Figure 11. Changes in the net cash flow (NCF) of the project with time at different price
scenarios.

Following this period, a gradual fall in project income was observed due to a breakthrough of
the injected gas at the producers, resulting in increased gas production and decreased oil
production. As a result, revenue from oil recovery decreased while expenditures related with
CO2 treatment and recycling increasing. The project became unprofitable after 20 years of
CO2 injection as the NCF < 0, and the costs expended in years 23 and 24 were
decommissioning and other associated costs. In conclusion, regardless of oil price, CO2 EOR
and storage in the Niger-Delta reservoir are economical and have a positive cash flow
between Years 1 and 20 as long as oil prices remain over 50 USD/barrel. Trends similar to
this are observed at other oil prices.

34
6. CONCLUSIONS
Using the properties of a turbidite case study reservoir, we investigated the feasibility for
CO2-enhanced oil recovery and storage in the Niger Delta. To analyse the potential of the
case study reservoir for CO2 EOR and storage, we first established and implemented
screening criteria. The preliminary screening studies reveal that the reservoir's properties
make it appropriate for miscible CO2 injection. The storage and additional oil recovery
potentials of the site were then assessed using analytical and numerical simulation methods.
The volumetrics of the case study reservoir simulation model were used to calculate the
analytical technical and effective potentials for miscible CO2 flooding for CO2 storage and
EOR. The reservoir possesses technical and effective CO2 storage potentials of 514.57 and
192.96 metric tonnes of CO2, as well as technical and effective incremental oil recovery
potentials of 14.91 and 11.18 x 106 sm3 of oil, according to the results obtained.

We used numerical simulations to calculate the site's CO2 storage and incremental oil
recovery potentials after 24 years of continuous CO2 injection to account for the factors that
influence the dynamics of the CO2 flooding process and for more realistic capacity estimates.
According to the results of this evaluation, approximately 6.7 HCPV of gas had been injected
at the end of this period, storing approximately 45 x 106 Mscf of CO2 (or 1.274 x 109 sm3) in
the subsurface and producing 7.85 MM STB (or 1.248 x 106 sm3) of oil.

We created and utilised a novel economic model for the CO2 EOR process in the Niger-Delta
case study to evaluate the project's net present value (NPV) to determine the commercial
viability of the CO2 flooding project. The developed cost-economic model incorporated
expenses, revenue factors, and fiscal terms available in the Niger-Delta hydrocarbon
province. The economics and commercial risk of the CO2 flooding project were also
evaluated using an approach that combined sensitivity analysis, experimental design, and
used Monte-Carlo-simulation-based uncertainty analysis. According to the evaluation results,
the oil price is the most important determinant of the project's economic performance and
profitability.

In conclusion, the evaluation results demonstrated that the case study reservoir in the Niger
Delta Basin is a suitable location with enormous potential for CO2 EOR and storage. The
technique used and the results obtained could be utilised in decision-making for future carbon
emission reduction programmes in the Niger Delta oil region. Furthermore, the method

35
 utilised in the study can be used to assess the potential for CO2 EOR and storage in other
petroleum basins.

7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Petroleum Technology Development
Fund (PTDF) for supporting this research. Schlumberger is also credited for providing the
ECLIPSE 300 simulator, which was employed in this investigation.

8. AUTHOR INFORMATION
The work was funded by the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), Grant No.:
PTDF/ED/PHD /OP/1348/18.

The authors declare no competing financial interest

9. DATA AVAILABILITY

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the
corresponding author on reasonable request.

10. APPENDIX

Analysis of the volumes of gas recovered and gas flared in reservoirs of the Niger-Delta
petroleum basin (after Umar et al., 2020)

Gas Production Flaring % of produced gas

S/N Oil Field
(x 106 Mscf) (x 106 Mscf) that is flared
1 Adibawa 2.23 2.1 94.54
2 Afam 19.47 0.28 1.43
3 Afremo 3.22 3.21 99.72
4 Agbaya 3.16 3.11 98.49
5 Ajitaton 0.54 0.53 98.05
6 Akaso 11.61 8.73 75.18
7 Alakiri 6.12 3.66 59.77
8 Amukpe 0.08 0.07 92.1
9 Awoba 13.36 6.6 49.37
10 Belema 11.94 11.83 99.08
11 Benisede 4.47 4.35 97.45
12 Bonny 92.94 0.74 0.79

36
13 Diebu Creek 15.79 15.68 99.3
14 Ekulama 12.25 12.13 99.06
15 Elelenwa 6.05 1.66 27.51
16 Eriemu 5.11 5.07 99.15
ss17 Escravos Beach 4.3 2.87 66.69
18 Etelebou 4.49 4.28 95.41
19 Kanbo 5.3 5.16 97.4
20 Kolo Creek 43.14 0.99 2.29
21 Krakama 9.66 9.34 96.68
22 Nembe Creek 14.65 0.93 6.35
23 Nun River 3.6 3.53 98.23
24 Obigbo North 24.01 7.01 29.18
25 Opukushi 8.29 8.1 97.69
26 Oroni 0.61 0.59 95.36
27 Otumara 8.07 8 99.16
28 Saghara 0.81 0.81 100
29 Soku 189 3.64 1.93
30 Tunu 12.44 12.28 98.76
31 Adua 11.32 9.49 83.81
32 Asabo 24.15 15.88 65.75
33 Ekpe 4.89 0.55 11.23
34 Eku 3.53 2.56 72.54
35 Enang 10.35 2.8 27.05
36 Etim 21.45 14.22 66.3
37 Inim 80.03 1.5 1.88
38 Usari 65.41 3.31 5.06
39 Okan 78.3 11.97 15.28
40 Mefa 51.81 2.56 4.94
41 Robertkiri 14.11 14.05 99.58
42 Yorla South 0.77 0.75 97.4
43 Belema Unit 0.01 0.01 100
44 Obagi 27.1 13.87 51.18
45 Odudu 8.7 7.33 84.2

37
46 Ebocha 54.46 47.07 86.43
47 Oshi 40.72 33.8 83
48 Tebidaba 10.74 10.66 99.31
49 North Apoi 6.31 6.27 99.29
50 Ologbo 18.03 16.87 93.57
51 Ossiomo 8.89 8.89 100
52 Agbara 9.66 9.36 96.83
53 Jones Creek 7.86 7.71 98.07
54 Odidi 18.63 12.22 65.6
55 Opuama 0.73 0.01 0.72
56 Oben 36.67 12.45 33.95
57 Odeama Creek 12.84 2.92 22.75
58 Orubiri 5.13 5.13 100
59 Ovhor 1.35 1.25 92.73
60 Sapele 25.25 10.51 41.61
61 Ubefan 0.12 0.12 99.44
62 Middleton 1.89 1.89 100
63 Pennington 2.07 2.05 98.76
64 Oso 182 22.22 12.19
65 Forcado Yokri 12.85 12.31 95.8
66 Akono 0.43 0.42 97.51
67 Egbema 5.14 5.11 99.49
68 Batan 3.01 2.92 96.83
69 Egwa 11.57 10.21 88.26
70 Oguta 14.75 14.72 99.74
71 Olomoro 5.02 3.81 76.03
72 Ubie 87.56 2.28 2.6
73 Uzere West 2.1 2.05 97.42
74 Oweh 2.82 1.08 38.2
75 Clough Creek 0.95 0.89 93.47
76 Biseni 2.28 2.11 92.49
77 Obodo 0.69 0.4 58.97
78 Aghigho Creek 0.44 0.34 75.57

38
79 Ibewa 61.41 0 0
80 Ajuju 0.4 0.28 71.49
81 Afiesere 9.42 9.07 96.26
82 Ahia 4.88 4.85 99.25
83 Evwreni 1.05 0.96 90.85
84 Imo River 7.95 7.05 88.76
85 Isoko 1.1 0.93 84.45
86 Rumuekpe 0.39 0.37 94.97
87 Kokori 3.36 3.1 92.27
88 Utorogu 89.26 1.65 1.84
89 Eriemu 5.11 5.07 99.15
90 Ughelli East 17.77 0.71 4
91 Ughelli West 1.26 1.22 96.79
92 Osiaka 0.07 0.01 8.38
93 Warri river 0.02 0.02 97.13
94 Ogini 1.47 0.91 62.09
95 Beniboye 7.22 7.16 99.13
96 Malu 8.76 8.72 99.52
97 Edican 5.25 5.25 100
98 Abiteye 4.49 0.32 7.02
99 Oredo 5.9 5.45 92.42
100 Meji 27.06 7.83 28.95
101 Abo 0.84 0.78 92.75
102 Oyo 0 0 75.34
103 Gili-Gili 0.82 0.81 99.34
104 Funiwa 11.11 11.06 99.51
105 Okubie 2.33 2.33 100
106 Obama 18.01 17.57 97.55
107 Afia 1.73 1.73 100
108 Odudu 8.7 7.33 84.2
109 Ofon 19.41 18.91 97.37
110 Erha 59.29 2.62 4.41
111 Omuro 0.6 0.59 97.29

39
112 Jisike 2.29 2.28 99.53
113 Okono 15.22 14.66 96.33
114 Asaboro South 1.45 1.45 100
115 Ogharefe 3.67 3.67 100
116 Ologbo 18.03 16.87 93.57
117 Ossu 6.05 5.97 98.7
118 Bonga 36.5 4.23 11.58
119 Awawa 5.25 0.76 14.39
120 Yoho 32.94 10.1 30.66
121 EA 18.71 10.29 55
122 Parabe 12.94 12.78 98.71
123 Mina 1.38 1.38 99.97
124 Tapa 3.67 3.62 98.4
125 Delta 23.55 23.47 99.66
126 Eja 1.55 0.76 48.84
127 Asabo 24.15 15.88 65.75
128 Akri 27.58 19.54 70.82
129 Edop 51.51 20.24 39.29
130 Asasa 26.2 20.42 77.95
131 Idu 18.08 17.9 99.01
132 Olo 4.81 0 0.07
133 Otamini 1.99 1.9 95.56
134 Graban 75.56 1.57 2.08
135 Isan 2.14 2.1 97.9
136 Jokka 0.72 0.72 100
137 Ogbotobo 4.78 4.71 98.45
138 Benin River 0.72 0.72 100
139 Gbokoda 4.78 4.71 98.45
140 Makaraba 12.81 1.19 9.29
141 Kito 0.45 0.43 95.61
142 Dibi 13.07 6.29 48.13
143 Delta South 17.1 10.03 58.65
144 Mini NTA 7.33 7.29 99.39

40
145 Umuechem 1.92 1.91 99.06
146 Santa Barbara 3.79 0.77 20.44
Cawthorne
147 32.19 24.43 75.91
Channel
148 NDA 3.57 2.21 62.04
149 Okwori 10.4 7.14 68.69
150 Abura 1.98 1.27 64.06
151 Isimiri 3.15 2.7 85.56
152 Nkali 7.41 2.88 38.88
153 Ubit 54.38 5.43 9.98
154 Mimbo 3.26 2.55 78.22
155 Ebughu 9.11 8.34 91.61
156 Akam 4.6 3.92 85.24
157 Ukpam 0.45 0.39 87.83
158 Iyak SE 1.44 0.94 65.16
159 Inanga 3.05 2.32 76.1
160 Mfem 1.38 1 72.42
161 Isobo 3.03 3.03 100
162 Unam 7.33 6.2 84.53
163 Idoho 11.15 11.11 99.67
164 Utue 3.09 2.66 86.14
165 Iyak 9.24 4.52 48.9
166 Ime 3.15 2.84 90

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Graphical Abstract

51
 0.025

Prtobability (Monte Carlo counts)

(a)
0.02

0.015

0.01

0.005
Mean NPV = 414.24
0
365 385 405 425 445 465
Total NPV, million USD

52