Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 8 (2022) 100312

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Journal of Agriculture and Food Research

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Smallholder farmers’ vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

induced shocks: The case of Northern Ethiopia highlands
Daniel Assefa Tofu a, *, Teshale Woldeamanuel b, Firafis Haile c
a
School of Natural Resources, Ambo University, Ethiopia
b
Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University, Ethiopia
c
School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Ambo University, Ethiopia

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This study was initiated to analyze smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks and
Adaptation identify the adaptation strategies they practice. The study was conducted in the North Wollo and Wag Hemra
Climate change zones of the Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia. It employed both qualitative and quantitative methods of data
Drought
collection. The zones and districts were selected purposively based on the frequency of shocks and the sample
Shocks
Vulnerability
Kebeles1 and sample respondents were selected randomly. Quantitative data were collected using a household
survey, whereas qualitative data were collected via focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field
observations. While the quantitative data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the qualitative data were
transcribed, coded, organized thematically based on these similarities, and interpreted thematically. The results
show that the major climate change-induced shocks in the area were increase in temperature and changes in
rainfall-related variables, such as shifts in rainy periods, shortages of rain, and variability of rainfall. In addition,
droughts, crop and livestock pests and diseases, and pasture and water scarcity are all widespread in the area. As
a result, land degradation and reduced crop and livestock output were identified as the primary impacts due to
climate change-induced shocks on smallholder livelihoods. The findings demonstrate that households and
communities are extremely vulnerable to climate change-related shocks. To reduce their vulnerability to climate
change, smallholder farmers in the area used both autonomous and policy-driven climate change adaptation
strategies, such as soil and water conservation practices, haystack preparation, improved crop varieties, fertilizer,
pesticide, and herbicide application. Nonetheless, smallholder farmers’ vulnerability to climate change-induced
shocks persists, owing to the limitations in the implementation of existing adaptation strategies in the area.
Limited access to finance, information, and technologies have all been an obstacle in the sector, preventing
comprehensive adaptation to climate change. As a result, smallholder farmers’ capacity to adopt both autono­
mous and policy-driven climate change adaptation strategies must be strengthened. Hence use of improved crop
and livestock varieties, application of good agricultural practices, construction of micro-and small-scale irriga­
tion structures, and provision of well-coordinated early warning systems are examples of adaptation strategies
that could be implemented to reduce vulnerability to climate change-induced shocks and increase farmers’
adaptive capacity.

1. Background of the study warming of the atmosphere would be severe. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 5th Assessment Report warns that
The world has already been exposed to further warming, largely due if global society continues to emit GHGs at current rates, the average
to past emissions, as greenhouse gases (GHGs) that were emitted and global temperature could rise by 2.6 ◦ C–4.8 ◦ C by the end of the 21st
damped in the atmosphere in previous periods have the ability to stay century [1]. Notably, during this period, temperatures on the African
alive for a long time and will continue to warm the climate in the future continent are likely to rise more quickly than in other areas. This situ­
too. When future emissions are taken into consideration, further ation will be particularly prevalent in more arid regions. Besides, the

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (D.A. Tofu).
1
Small or grass root level formal administrative unit in Ethiopia.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2022.100312
Received 19 September 2021; Received in revised form 15 April 2022; Accepted 17 April 2022
Available online 20 April 2022
2666-1543/© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
D.A. Tofu et al. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 8 (2022) 100312

changes in precipitation will not be uniform across the continent’s studies hardly investigated the climate change-induced shocks experi­
landmass. That is, increasing trends in temperature, variability in pre­ enced by smallholder farmers, their vulnerability to such shocks, and
cipitation, and frequency of drought are predicted to endure in the how they adapted to them. Therefore, understanding the nature of
tropics [2]. Heat waves, sea level rises, storms, cyclones, flooding, and climate change impacts, key vulnerabilities, and indigenous adaptive
droughts are consequent effects expected to be more frequent and more responses at local levels is crucial. Besides, examining the national
severe across the globe [3]. institutional responses to the problem is important for developing
The impact of climate change will be more severe on the world’s poor appropriate adaptation strategies at community and farm levels [35].
who are dependent on agriculture and natural resources for their live­ This study, therefore, was initiated to (a) assess climate change-induced
lihood. This is because of the diverse impacts of climate change that shocks, (b) estimate the magnitude of the vulnerability of the household
range from agriculture, water resources, forestry, biodiversity, wildlife, to climate change-induced shocks, and (c) identify the local-level
and human health [4]. Since agriculture is the primary source of live­ adaptation strategies practiced by farmers in the area. The findings
lihood for people in developing countries, the consequent impacts of from this study are believed to assist policymakers and development
climate change lead them to a highly susceptible way of life [5]. Climate actors in guiding where to invest in order to reduce vulnerability and
change affects food systems in different ways, ranging from direct effects enhance the adaptive capacity of households against the adverse effects
on crop production to exchanges in markets, as well as food prices and of climate change-induced shocks.
disruption of supply chain infrastructures [6]. Although climate change
may affect the agricultural sector in different ways, what is clear is that 2. Materials and methods
these changes will bring substantial welfare losses, especially for
smallholders whose main source of livelihood is derived from agricul­ 2.1. Study area
ture [7]. The changes may prove devastating, especially for developing
countries, in two ways. On the one hand, the region has historically been This study was conducted in the Northern highlands of Ethiopia’s
vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods [8]. Amhara National Regional State. The North Wollo and Wag Hemra
On the other hand, most farming families in developing countries are zones are the two zones among the eleven administrative zones in the
dependent on rain-fed agriculture for food production [9]. Amhara Regional State in which this study was conducted (Fig. 1). The
Agriculture is central to the survival of millions of people in many North Wollo zone covers roughly 21% of the region, with an estimated
Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries [10]. However, the adverse impact area of 12,706 km2. It is bordered by the Wag Hemra Zone and the
of climate change on agriculture in SSA has become a challenge for Tigray National Regional State on the north, by the South Wollo Zone on
sustainable development. The losses in the agriculture sector due to the south, the Afar National Regional State on the east, and the South
climate change will have economy-wide consequences such as a loss in Gondar Zone on the west [13]. The Wag Hemra zone, on the other hand,
the gross domestic product, a decline in the income level, and a drop in covers an area of 9039.04 square kms. The zone is bordered by Tigray
consumption of the most vulnerable population, resulting in a general National Regional State on the north and east, the North Wollo Zone on
deterioration of households’ welfare [11]. Although agriculture remains the south, and the South Gondar Zone on the west. Sekota is the Wag
the means of livelihood for rural communities in Africa [12], it con­ Hemra Zone’s capital, located 720 kms north of Addis Ababa and 540
tinues to be rain-fed [13]. As a result, African rain-fed agriculture is kms north of Bahir Dar, the regional state seat (BoFED, 2013).
observed as the most vulnerable sector to climate variability and change The most common features of the study areas are their rugged
[14]. Consequently, Africa is expected to be one of the most exposed topography, which is characterized by mountains, steep escarpments,
continents to suffer the devastating effects of climate change and climate and deeply incised valleys, which makes them unsuitable for agriculture
variability, with massive economic impacts [15]. [36]. The area has a mean annual temperature ranging between 15 and
Ethiopia is among the most severely vulnerable countries to the 40 ◦ C. On the other hand, it has a bimodal rainfall pattern with a short
impacts of climate-induced weather extremes and has the least capacity rainy season “Belg2” (February to March) and a long rainy season
to respond to climate change in Africa [16–19]. This is due to reliance on “Kiremt3" (June to September), with a peak in August. In general, the
rain-fed agriculture, underdevelopment of water resources, rapid pop­ mean annual rainfall ranges from 150 to 700 mm, with the highest
ulation growth, limited adaptive capacity, weak institutions, and lack of rainfall occurring during the summer season [37]. The “Kiremt” rains
awareness of climate change [20]. In Ethiopia, crop production is are relatively reliable and evenly distributed, but the Belg rains have
dominated by small-scale subsistence farmers who practice more become increasingly unpredictable, often failing completely. This un­
traditional farming. More than 95% of the total area is under crop, reliable rainfall has been contributing to the decline in crop production
which accounts for more than 90% of the total agricultural output [38]. This appears to be a big challenge for the crop-livestock mixed
[21–23]. farming system, which is the main means of livelihood in the area. While
In many developing countries that are vulnerable to climate change, teff, sorghum, and maize are the most popular crops cultivated in the
understanding farmers’ responses to climate change is vital to designing area, animals like cattle, goats, sheep, donkeys, and poultry are also
appropriate adaptation strategies [24]. Developing countries particu­ widespread, though their output and productivity are limited due to the
larly need to tailor adaptation policies to offset the specific impacts they small landholdings that characterize the study area.
anticipate [25], because, without adaptation, climate change would be Ethiopian soil digital data confirms that the major soils of the zone
problematic for agricultural production [26]. Adaptation helps to are characterized by Cambisols, Luvisols, and Leptosols, which comprise
modify existing natural or human systems so that they can withstand 19.89%, 16.6%, and 63.51%, respectively (FAO (1997)). However,
unforeseen shocks. It lessens adverse effects and takes advantage of the many years of continuous cultivation, limited application of nutrients,
benefits of changes in climate variables [27]. Moreover, it is a strategy and the removal of all crop residues have depleted the stocks of soil
with which farming communities embrace and take advantage of new nutrients [39]. Unreliable rainfall coupled with depleted soil fertility is
circumstances and conditions presented by the climate [28]. Nonethe­ the main cause of the low yield, which is only sufficient to cover six
less, as adaptation strategies and barriers to adaptation are months of household consumption. As a result, the households in the
location-specific, most of the strategies may not necessarily translate study area are characterized as food insecure. Following Ethiopia’s
into practice [15]. biggest famines in 1966 (dubbed as “Wag-Lasta”), 1973, and 1984, the
In Ethiopia, various studies have been conducted on issues mainly
related to the historical famine of the Northern highlands of Ethiopia
[29–34]. These studies tend to focus on the causes and consequences of 2
Belg is a short rainy season in Ethiopia.
the droughts in Ethiopia in general and the study area in particular. The 3
Kiremt is a long, rainy season in Ethiopia.

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D.A. Tofu et al. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 8 (2022) 100312

Fig. 1. Map of the study area.

names North Wollo and Wag Hemra have been equated with starvation protection, safety net department, and Organization for Rehabilitation
[40,41]. and Development in Amhara (ORDA) offices. Individuals from these
institutions are assumed to have good experience of the interwoven
impacts of climate change-induced shocks on the livelihoods of the
2.2. Sampling procedure and sample size smallholder farmers in the area. Moreover, people who have demon­
strated experience of the trends of climate change-induced shocks on the
A multistage sampling procedure was employed in this study. Lasta community and their wellbeing were interviewed as key informants.
district from North Wollo (NW) and Sekota district from Wag Hemera
(WH) zones were selected purposively. The selection was based on the
2.3. Research approach and design
presence of chronic poverty and the existence of food insecurity, as
witnessed by the continuous food aid dependence in the area. That is,
In this study, mixed methods of data collection were used to achieve
forty-eight of the 105 districts of the Amhara region are drought-prone
the objective of this study. While a household survey was used to collect
and suffer from frequent food shortages [42]. In Ethiopia vulnerability
quantitative data, focus group discussions and key informant interviews
to famine is high [43]. Poverty and food insecurity remain common,
along with a phenomenological design were used to gather qualitative
with millions of Ethiopians living in poverty and being undernourished;
data and explore the phenomenon under study. The advantage of using
a considerable portion of the population is hungry and on government
mixed methods research is that it allows the researcher to triangulate
assistance [44]. Genetemariam, Erfa, Bilibala, and Yimrhane-Kristos
data, which can strengthen the validity and increase the reliability of the
Kebeles were selected from the Lasta district, whereas Wollehi, Abiya,
research [46]. For the purpose of triangulation, secondary sources of
Fiqreselam, and Tsemera Kebeles were selected from the Sekota district.
data were employed. A phenomenological design was employed to
In the third stage, a total of 398 respondents were randomly selected by
explore the experience of people from an insider perspective. Because it
using a formula, n = N/1+N (e)2 [45].
is the type of qualitative research that attempts to understand how
To conduct focus group discussions, community representatives from
participants make sense of their experiences, it recognizes that this in­
the elderly, women, and youth were purposefully selected with the help
volves a process of interpretation by the researcher [47,48].
of a community facilitator. Here, community representatives were
selected based on their knowledge of their environment, the impacts of
climate change-induced shocks, their vulnerability to climate change, 2.4. Methods and tools of data collection
and their experience of adaptation strategies to climate change-induced
shocks. Similarly, for key informant interviews, experts, elders, church Household surveys, focus group discussions (FGDs), key informant
leaders, and development agents were selected using purposive sam­ interviews (KIIs), and field observations were used to collect primary
pling procedures. Experts are staffs who are working in district-level data from farmers, experts, and development agents. While the house­
government and non-government organizations’ offices, i.e., disaster hold survey was conducted by using semi-structured questionnaires to
risk management, agriculture, food security, climate and environmental collect quantitative data, discussion guiding checklists were used for

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D.A. Tofu et al. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 8 (2022) 100312

FGDs and KIIs to collect qualitative data. For this study, a total of 18 Table 1
FGDs were conducted, involving community representatives from both Summary of extreme events experienced across kebeles (% of respondents).
sexes. The advantage was to get a full picture of the issues under study Climatic North Wollo (NW) (n=215) Wag Hemera (WH) (n=183)
and understand the disproportionate impact of climate change on the shocks
F % Rank F % Rank
groups and the susceptibility of the households. Each FGD group was (magnitude & (magnitude &
composed of 8–12 individuals, and women and men participated in in­ frequency) frequency)
dependent discussion groups. Rainfall 209 97 2 179 98 2
On the other hand, 22 key informants, including experts and people reduction
with the ability to rehearse the trends of climatic events and their Variability in 197 92 4 163 89 4
consequent impacts across the study sites, were interviewed in eight rainfall
Increase in 199 93 3 175 96 3
rural kebeles. In addition, field observations were conducted with the
temperature
help of farmers and facilitators to see the current situation of the natural Drought 215 100 1 183 100 1
environment in the area, including land, forest, water resources, rainfall, Crop and 158 74 5 142 78 5
temperature, crop fields, and livelihood strategies of the households. livestock
Moreover, secondary data was gathered from the aforementioned disease
Damaging 148 69 6 117 64 7
district-level offices using the desk review method. The issues raised flood
during the FGDs and KIIs interviews included commonly experienced Occurrence of 135 63 7 123 67 6
climate change-induced shocks in the area, impacts due to climate hail storms
change-induced shocks on livelihoods, the magnitude of households’ Locusts/army 131 61 8 117 64 7
worms
vulnerability, the major causes of households’ vulnerability, major
adaptation strategies practiced by households in response to climate Ground total (n = 398)
change-induced shocks, etc. Source: Own survey data, 2019

2.5. Methods of data analysis 1985. They confirmed that the area is currently experiencing higher
temperatures than it was before. It was underlined that the severity of
Descriptive statistics including frequency, percentages, and tables this specific shock could be comparable to the situation in Humera,4 one
were used to analyze quantitative data employing the Statistical Package of the hottest areas they have ever known. They also believed that the
for Social Science (SPSS) version 20. The qualitative data, on the other change in Belg’s rainy season was linked to a rise in temperature.
hand, was analyzed in stages, with the data being transcribed, catego­ In both zones, the respondents perceived that the amount of rainfall
rized into similar themes, and the findings interpreted and discussed. has been reduced as compared to the past, especially from the 1985
Then reading and re-reading of the transcribed texts were done to drought period, which was reported by 97% and 98% of the respondents
comprehend and identify the themes. Reading the text, again and again, of the North Wollo (NW) and Wag Hemera (WH) zones, respectively
ensures that the data is correctly categorized [49]. Then, themes were (Table 1). The onset of rainfall is unpredictable; in most cases, it starts
identified and thematically organized based on their similarities and late and offsets early. In terms of fluctuation, 92% and 89% of re­
concepts. Identifying salient themes, recurring ideas, and patterns of spondents from NW and WH, respectively, agreed that rainfall varies,
belief that link people and settings together was the most intellectually particularly during the rainy season. Changes in rainfall patterns, vari­
challenging phase of the analysis and one that integrates the entire ability, and temperature are all linked to long-term climate change in
endeavor [50]. Next, the identification of connections between cate­ Ethiopia, which could increase the frequency of both droughts and
gories was conducted, because these relationships help interpret the floods [38]. Climate risks, particularly drought, are increasingly posing
whole data [51]. a serious threat to the livelihoods of most smallholder farmers [53].
Finally, the organized qualitative data were thematically analyzed Drought has been a major shock in the area since 1985, with the most
and iteratively interpreted. Thematic analysis is a leading approach for recent drought occurring in 2015. Drought occurred during this time,
qualitative data because it helps to look across all the data to identify the with varying degrees of intensity and impact. The following sentence
common issues that recur and identify the main themes that summarize expresses the overall evaluation of the drought period associated with
all the views considered [52]. The first and third objectives of the study climate extremes:
were analyzed using both quantitative and qualitative techniques,
whereas the second objective was analyzed using qualitative data “There are a lot of extreme events in this area, and drought has been a
analysis methods. problem for a long time. To be honest, we had experienced a drought in
our lives. Rather, it has been steadily increasing over time, notably in
3. Result and discussion terms of frequency. Since 2015, we’ve been battling drought year after
year."
3.1. Major climate change induced shocks
Table 1 show that temperature increase and rainfall variability have
become the most common climatic shocks in the area. Following the
The results in Table 1 show the extreme events experienced by
increase in temperature and variability in rainfall, the incidence of both
smallholder farmers due to climate change and variability in the study
crop and livestock diseases has been frequent, which was reported by
area. Drought as the most frequent and severe shock was reported by all
78% of the respondents in WH and 74% of the respondents in NW. In
the respondents across the study area (100%). Similarly, the results from
addition, 69% of respondents in NW and 64% in WH said they had
the focus group discussants and key informants confirmed this and
experienced flood shock, which resulted in the removal of topsoil and a
ranked frequent drought as the first shock that makes agricultural pro­
decrease in crop yield. Similarly, 63% of respondents in the NW and 67%
duction difficult in the area. Other extreme events such as reductions in
in the WH zone said hailstorms were caused by climate change-induced
rainfall, increases in temperature, and variability in rainfall were ranked
2nd, 3rd, and 4th based on their frequency and severity. Flooding, hail
storms, locusts, and armyworms are prevalent, but the magnitude and
frequency of occurrence vary between the two study areas. 4
Humera is a district in northern Ethiopia known for its hot, semi-arid
The results from both focus group discussants and key informants climate. The annual rainfall of the area ranges between 400 and 600 mm,
indicated that the temperature of the area has been increasing since with most of the rain falling in the main rainy season (June up to September).

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D.A. Tofu et al. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 8 (2022) 100312

shock, though they were not common in the area. On the other hand, the environmental dimensions, both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and
outbreaks of locusts and armyworms are less frequent shocks in the area, their biodiversity have been affected [60]. Table 2 shows that the impact
but their magnitude of impact is significant. on the natural resource base is among the major impacts of climate
[54] noted that droughts, erratic rainfall, floods, locusts, army­ change in the area. In this regard, 85% and 87% of respondents in the
worms, hailstorms, and landslides, among others, are climate shocks. NW, respectively, perceived an increase in surface temperature and a
The finding by Ref. [55] shows that floods and hailstorms are natural decrease in rainfall, both of which have already had an impact on land
extreme events that affect smallholder agricultural production in resources. Similarly, the impact of an increase in surface temperature
Ethiopia but their impacts are not as pronounced as those of drought. and a reduction in the amount of rain on the land resources was
According to Ref. [56]; climate change is predicted to increase weather perceived by 89% and 91% of respondents in the WH zone, respectively.
variability and the frequency of extreme events, posing a threat to The respondents indicated that a rise in surface temperature affected
people’s livelihoods and jeopardizing development efforts. A decrease in microorganisms that are important for soil fertility, whereas increased
seasonal rainfall has devastating implications for agricultural produc­ evapotranspiration resulted in a loss of soil moisture and nutrients. On
tion, leading to food insecurity, malnutrition, and famine [57]. Ac­ the other hand, torrential rain, which commonly follows a prolonged
cording to the [58]; the negative effects of climate shocks are primarily drought, causes the removal of topsoil. The combined effects of the
felt by poor people in developing countries, as they frequently have shocks had already resulted in land degradation and, notably, soil
serious consequences for their climate-sensitive means of livelihood. fertility degradation. In this regard [61], reported that changes in
rainfall and temperature had direct effects on the amount of evapo­
transpiration and surface runoff. Such extreme events mostly lead to
3.2. Observed impacts of climate change induced shocks
threats to the system, both sudden shocks (i.e., floods and landslides,
etc.) and slowly occurring shocks (i.e., soil degradation, drought, vari­
The focus group discussants and key informant interviews indicated
ation of rainfall patterns, etc.) [62]. Moreover, severe soil erosion and
that smallholder farmers in both zones have experienced various climate
shortages of water are major climate change-related problems that cause
change-induced impacts. They underlined that the impact was far-
crop failure and consequent food insecurity [63].
reaching since it impacted agriculture, which is the primary source of
Historic climatic events like drought, which were also reported by
livelihood for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia in general and in the
92% of respondents in the NW and 94% of respondents in the WH zone,
study area in particular. Besides, natural and environmental resources
were the primary cause of the natural resource base depletion (Table 2).
(soil, water, and trees) have been harmed by climate-induced shocks.
The impact was even more severe on the arid land, which is character­
This has already been reflected in the socio-economic dimensions of
ized by the land on which they depend. In this regard, the loss of soil
smallholders by affecting water availability, agricultural production,
fertility has become prevalent to the extent that the situation is no longer
productivity, food security, human health, etc. Notably, climate change
reversible with the practice of applying soil and water conservation
has a huge impact on agriculture, livelihoods, food production, and the
practices on one side and farming on the other side. According to
entire economies of countries, particularly those with agro-based
Ref. [55]; the depletion of natural resources has become the main
economies in the poor world [59].
environmental problem in Ethiopia. As a result, all efforts to rehabilitate
Smallholder farmers in both zones have experienced various climate
natural resources through soil and water conservation and biological
change-induced impacts. They underlined that the impact was far-
measures have met with limited success. Despite the fact that water or
reaching since it affected agriculture, which is the primary source of
available soil moisture is essential for plant growth [64], previous
livelihood for smallholder farmers in Ethiopia in general and in the
deterioration and a shortage of rain severely impeded plant growth,
study area in particular. Besides, natural and environmental resources
production, and productivity in the study area.
(soil, water, and trees) have been harmed by climate-induced shocks.
According to the focus group discussants and key informants, the
This has already been reflected in the socio-economic dimensions of
productivity of crops has been declining, though crop production is one
smallholders by affecting water availability, agricultural production and
of the major means of living in the area the households depend mainly
productivity, food security, human health, etc. Notably, climate change
for their livelihood. That is, especially after the historical drought of
has a huge impact on agriculture, livelihoods, food production, and the
1985, rainfall variability and change have been clearly observed, which
entire economies of countries, particularly those with agro-based
affected production and productivity. Extreme climate events such as
economies in the poor world [59].
irregularities in the onset of rainfall (e.g., usually late-onset as well as
In terms of the impacts of climate change-induced shocks on
the early cessation of rainfall), temperature increase, floods, and
droughts were identified as the principal impacts of climate change-
Table 2 induced shocks on crop production. In addition to this, crop pests,
Impacts of climate change induced shocks across the study area.
particularly earthworms and locusts, were noted by the entire survey
Impacts on livelihood North Wollo (NW) Wag Hemera (WH) and group discussants as crop production restrictions. For instance, in
(n=215) (n=183)
1955 and 1985, earthworms and locusts caused a 100% crop loss, which
Degree of impacts Degree of impacts forced many people to be displaced [65]. indicated that farmers are
F % F % frequently brave to maintain their survival, as crop yields and food se­
curity are dependent on the quantity of rainfall, average temperature,
Natural resources
Reduction in rainfall 188 87 166 91 and other climatic factors during the growing season.
Increase in temperature 182 85 163 89 Prominent drought events and trends were underscored by in­
Drought 197 92 172 94 formants who could recall some of the events, including the complete
Crop production loss of their crop fields following a shortage and early cessation of rain,
Reduction in rainfall 211 98 179 98
Variability in rainfall 211 98 179 98
which extended the duration of dry months. Among the severe climate
Locusts/army worms 191 89 170 93 change-induced shock periods, the years 1985, 1988, 1995, and 2015
Livestock production were the major ones. As a result, many people died and the rest were
Increase in temperature 195 91 170 93 displaced within the zones and outside, such as Wollega and Ilu-ababora
Disease 199 93 174 95
in the West; Gojam in the North West; and Korem and Raya in the
Shortage of pasture 202 94 177 97
Northeast of the country. In this regard [66], underlined that the direct
Ground total (n = 398) impact of climate change-induced shocks on crop yield varies by region,
Source: Own survey data, 2019 ranging from a reduction in yield to a complete loss in the farm field. In

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line with the present study [67], stated that severe droughts, and the degradation, and lower carrying capacity. Besides [10], shows that low
associated lack of water, were attributed to human hunger. productivity of livestock is expected due to the likely impact of climate
The majority (98%) of respondents across the study zones indicated change, both in terms of affecting the quantity and quality of feed and
that there has been a serious shortage of rain in recent years, which was the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events.
also characterized by variability in terms of late-onset and early cessa­ On the other hand, the results from focus group discussions and key
tion of rainfall. Table 2 depicts two major crop production concerns in informant interviews further confirmed that the productivity of live­
the study areas. First, late rain constrains the early planting of crops. stock is directly related to the productivity of crop production, with
Second, the early cessation of rain mostly leads to a reduction in crop climate variability and change becoming the underlying factors. This
productivity and, in extreme cases, to crop failure. In the latter case, implies that if the weather conditions for crop production are favorable,
farmers are left with only fodder for their animals rather than the grains the situation for livestock production will improve as well, because crop
harvested [68]. stated that the amount and distribution of rainfall dur­ residue can be used for animal fodder. This is understood by the dis­
ing the growing season are critical to crop yields. Furthermore [69], cussants as stated:
indicate that fluctuations in rainfall patterns could adversely affect the
“Surprisingly, due to a shortage of milk productivity, we began to employ
productivity of crops.
cows for plowing. Of course, they used to give birth naturally and produce
Crop pests were highlighted as one of the primary problems in both
enough milk, but that is no longer the case. As a result, we started
areas, and this was reported by 89% and 93% of respondents in the NW
repairing them using oxen and farming land."
and WH zones, respectively (Table 2). They underlined the occurrence of
crop pests in two ways. On one hand, the incidence of new types of crop Regarding animal disease, 93% and 95% of respondents in the NW
pests has been prevalent as compared to 1985, and on the other hand, and WH zones, respectively, affirmed that it is the second most impor­
the increase in the population of the pests has amplified the risk of crop tant climate change-induced shock that is severely harming livestock
loss, yield reduction, and/or quality, and/or harvest [70]. Among (Table 2). Respondents in both zones believed that higher temperatures
commonly-occurring crop pests, armyworm was frequently mentioned promote the occurrence of various diseases, as reported by 91% and 93%
as a climate-induced shock that damaged grass pastures and cereal of respondents in the NW and WH zones, respectively. Accordingly, a
crops. As a result, farmers have abandoned the cultivation of some of large number of livestock were lost due to the incidence of disease
these crops and reduced the cultivation of others. In this regard, peas are following the severe historical drought that occurred in the years 1985,
one of the crop types not currently cultivated in the study area. Other 1988, 1995, and 2015. As a result, the majority of the population relo­
crops such as beans and lentils are marginally grown in some pockets. cated to other parts of the country. At present, livestock is suffering from
Farmers are currently compelled to purchase commodities such as a new and uncommon disease, a transboundary animal disease that is
beans, peas, and lentils from other places for their own consumption. As either highly contagious or easily transmitted within and between
a result, farmers rely on the meager yields of limited crop varieties such livestock populations. This has already threatened the economic health
as barely, Teff, and wheat, although the yield obtained from them is not of the livestock sector, livestock productivity, farmer livelihoods, and
satisfactory. In this regard [71], indicates that Ethiopia continues to ultimately, food security [74]. It had been about 16 years since the
grapple with the effects of drought and poor Belg season performance in people in the area faced the impact of livestock disease on their com­
crop-producing areas coupled with the emergence of exotic and invasive munity. The prevalence of livestock diseases is mostly associated with
pests that have been spreading at an alarming rate. the increase in temperature and variation in precipitation [75].
In both zones, Belg rain is crucial for both crop and livestock pro­
duction. This means that the households can produce an additional crop
and earn their livelihood without any challenge year-round when the 3.3. Vulnerability to climate change induced shocks
area receives timely Belg rain. Besides, Belg rain can ease the challenges
with respect to water availability for both humans and livestock. In The vulnerability of the smallholder farmers in both zones is asso­
addition, the Belg season production is the most important one, which ciated with the fact that agriculture is one of the key sources of liveli­
complements the production in the Kiremt season (June–September). hood in Ethiopia in general and the study area in particular. Agriculture
This is worthwhile in areas characterized by land shortages and that is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change-
could not produce sufficient grains in Kiremt. However, the variability induced shocks as it mainly depends on erratic rainfall. As a result, it
and absence of Belg rain (February–May) have already become a chal­ has been characterized by frequent droughts, which have highly affected
lenge for crop and livestock production in the area. All respondents the agricultural production and the livelihoods of the farming popula­
confirmed that this problem has become a bottleneck over the last five to tion [55]. Above all, the fact that agriculture is practiced on previously
ten years. Farmers in Kenya have been turning into irrigation from local depleted natural resources like land and water resources has increased
rivers and springs to overcome the challenges like these, which enable the vulnerability of the sector to climate change-induced shocks [68].
them to cultivate more effectively during drought periods [67]. How­ show that climate shocks often diminish the assets and resources of the
ever, in the current study area, due to the topography and lack of rivers, rural poor. Moreover, poverty and environmental stress caused by
this option is not feasible. climate change-induced shocks have the ability to increase the vulner­
In the study area, it is not only crop production but also animal ability of rural households [76].
production that has already become a vulnerable sector due to climate The majority of the households in the area perceived that they were
change. As climate variability and change affect most key aspects of highly vulnerable to climate change. According to Ref. [77]; three broad
livestock production, such as water availability, production and repro­ categories of factors, i.e., climate-related, socio-economic, and institu­
duction, and animal health (mostly through heat stress) [72], the sector tional factors were found to be the main drivers of smallholder farmers’
is characterized by a wide range of both productivity and animal loss. vulnerability to climate change and variability. However, in this study,
The major causes of climate change-induced shocks to livestock pro­ two basic causes of vulnerability are identified, which include both in­
duction were identified as lack of pasture, animal disease, and lack of ternal and external factors. Internal factors such as low income and a
water in their surroundings. In this case, 96% of respondents in the NW lack of both fixed and variable assets are major reasons for farm
and 97% in the WH revealed that a shortage of grass and water, households’ vulnerability. Since they have no stored grain in their store
particularly during the extended dry season, was a major challenge for or money in their bank, they have no capacity to withstand any climatic
livestock production (Table 2) [73]. reported that livestock productivity shocks. On the other hand, limited early warning system facilities, lack
remains low in many African nations due to poor husbandry methods of location and context-specific technology, and limited access to
and extension services, restricted access to loans, rangeland finance are among the external factors that make households vulnerable

6
D.A. Tofu et al. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 8 (2022) 100312

to climate change and variability [26]. noted that when agricultural Table 3
production and productivity decline, it translates into a decrease in Relative importance of adaptation strategies practiced across the study area.
farmers’ income. Climate change-induced shocks most often result in Adaptation strategies North Wollo Wag Hemera Average (n
crop yield reductions and, in some cases, the loss of an entire crop [65]. (NW) (n = (WH) (n = = 398)
[62] stated that subsistence farmers in the developing world are 215) 183)
particularly unable to cope with climate change and variability, as they F % F % F %
do not have the capital to invest in new adaptive practices with which to Construction of stone & soil bund 200 93 159 87 180 90
protect their homes and families. Terracing 198 92 157 86 178 89
The current circumstances of smallholders’ vulnerability to climate Planting seedling 163 76 130 71 147 74
change-induced shocks confirm that households in both zones could not Collecting rain water 168 78 123 67 146 73
Improved seed 178 83 150 82 164 83
survive seasonal shocks without external help as they had no accumu­
Fertilizers 153 71 134 73 144 72
lated assets for unforeseen circumstances. Hence, this suggests the es­ Inter cropping 159 74 130 71 145 73
sentiality of governmental and non-governmental organizations Using manure 161 75 124 68 143 72
supporting the indigenous adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers Using compost 123 57 95 52 109 55
with a wide scope of institutional, policy, and technological support Pesticides & insecticides 125 58 110 60 118 59
Diversion ditches 181 84 154 84 168 84
[63]. In this regard, one of the key informants noted: Collecting hay & crop residue 204 95 159 87 182 91
Reducing meal per consumption 183 85 141 77 162 81
“I am extremely vulnerable to climate-related shocks, and I lack the
ability to withstand any of them. How can I claim to be able to withstand Source: Own survey data, 2019
such shocks when I know what I’m dealing with? I have nothing to invest
in if something bad happens in my life at this time". strategies. As autonomous strategies, many farmers practiced different
physical soil and water conservation measures. These practices include
It was indicated that climate change has manifested in the study area,
diversion ditches (reported by 84%), terracing (89%), stone and soil
with its differential impacts among members of society. That is, the
bund construction (90%), planting seedlings in damaged areas (74%),
impact of climate change is greater on some segments of the community
and rainwater harvesting (73%) (Table 3). At the community level,
than others, including women, the poor, and the landless. Women dis­
watershed management was practiced via both public works through the
cussants mentioned that they were highly vulnerable to climate change.
productive safety net program (PSNP) and in the form of campaigns,
Besides, lack of land for those who are landless and limited yield even for
mostly conducted from January to March every year according to the
those who have land were mentioned as key reasons for their vulnera­
government schedule. These were practices made both on communal
bility. Climate change disproportionately affects the most vulnerable
lands and individual farm plots. As a result of these watershed man­
members of society, especially women and children [78]. Thus, the
agement interventions, a lot of improvements were observed in soil
extent of vulnerability is limited to those groups in society that have
fertility and water availability, indicating the contribution of watershed
limited means of living and are dependent on continuous food aid.
practices to the replenishing of dried ponds and increasing the dis­
charging potential of the existing ones. In all the focus group discussions,
the participants agreed that:
3.4. Smallholder farmers endeavor to adapt climate change induced
shocks “Before the last five years, we spent a lot of time looking for water to
conduct all of our household chores. But today, this is no longer the case,
Current climate change scenarios demand adaptation to temperature and we no longer spend a lot of time obtaining water. This is because we
increase, changing amounts of rainfall, and an increased frequency of began to rebuild previously degraded watersheds in our area, and as a
extreme weather events [79]. As a response to climate change-induced result, formerly dry water spots began to give water."
shocks, smallholder farmers in the study area use different strategies
to reduce the impact of climate change-induced shocks. They started to In both zones, adaptation to climate change has been a common
practice four packages of adaptation measures to climate change-related practice. However, the adaptation strategies in the sector are conven­
shocks. These include technological, behavioral, managerial, and policy tional and not intensive. In this regard, 91% of the respondents indicated
approaches adaptation. In line with technological approaches to climate that during the dry period they practice collecting hay and crop residue
change adaptation, 83% reported practicing drought-tolerant improved for animal feed. Harvesting of hay is conducted during good seasons
seed, 72% applied fertilizers, and 59% used insecticides and pesticides. when there is grass in the field. This helps to relax feed constraints over
As for managerial approaches to climate change adaptation, the use of the extended dry period. On the other hand, 81% of the respondents
flexible calendars for land preparation and sowing/planting following mentioned that they adapt to climate change by reducing meal per
the start of a rainy day, the practice of intercropping, and the use of capita consumption (Table 3). Although it was not intensive and sys­
compost and manure were commonly applied. In this regard, 73% tematic, diversifying livestock and breeds, availing water, producing
practiced inter-cropping, 72% applied manure, and 55% prepared and pasture, altering the rotation of pastures, and modifying the time of
applied compost (Table 3). In comparison to fertilizer, the use of grazing and reproduction are among the livestock-based adaptation
compost and/or manure was reported by the respondents as superior in options [81].
improving the fertility of the soil, although the latter was perceived to Whether the above adaptation strategies have been practiced by
create favorable conditions for the invasion of weeds and take a long smallholder farmers in the area was one of the points of discussion
time to prepare. According to Codjoe et al. (2013), adaptation strategies during the focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The
can be of different types: purely technological (such as sea defense participants confirmed they were using all the above-mentioned stra­
construction), behavioral (such as shifts in choice of food or recreation), tegies to adapt or reduce the impact of climate change-induced shocks,
managerial (such as changes in farming methods), and policy (such as although they didn’t fully practice them. At present, the adaptation
planning regulations). That is, farmers in developing nations are prac­ strategies they practiced enabled them to just survive in the area. That is,
ticing diverse adaptation strategies to develop resilience to climate the adaptation practices were not intensive but carried out to the extent
change-related risks like droughts and floods [80]. that minimized mass displacement. This indicates their strategies were
Soil and water conservation as a means of adapting to climate change not enough to tackle the problem. One of the key informants mentioned
has been practiced at both the household and community levels. These the situation as:
are strategies that are initiated autonomously as well as policy-driven

7
D.A. Tofu et al. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research 8 (2022) 100312

“The reason for not being able to fully adopt the strategies was the fact packages, strengthening watershed management practices, and the
that we had no other income source and assets to rely on". development and provision of information on climate change for
smallholder farmers. Hence use of improved crop and livestock varieties,
For different reasons, it was noted that the adaptation strategies
application of good agricultural practices, construction of micro-and
stated above were not fully practiced in the area. In this regard, dis­
small-scale irrigation structures, and provision of well-coordinated
cussants stated the limitations in terms of technologies that fit the local
early warning systems are examples of adaptation strategies that could
context and their affordability, as well as early warning systems,
be implemented to reduce vulnerability to climate change-induced
finance, etc. The lack of drought-tolerant varieties and the associated
shocks and increase farmers’ adaptive capacity.
inputs are among the limitations mentioned in terms of technologies.
Regarding inputs, the prices of the existing varieties, as well as the price
Authors’ contributions
of fertilizer, have already become bottlenecks. Today, smallholder
farmers in both zones have been challenged to use drought-tolerant
Daniel Assefa Tofu designed the data collection tools, undertook
improved varieties and fertilizer owing to their unaffordable prices.
fieldwork and most of the analysis, and developed the manuscript. Fir­
The fact that the area has been characterized by frequent droughts, se­
afis Haile contributed to developing the data collection tools and survey
vere degradation, and limited climate change mitigation strategies has
design. Dr. Teshale Woldeamanuel contributed to the framing of the
made climate change adaptation a bottleneck for smallholder farmers in
paper as well as the reviewing and editing of the text. As a result, the
both zones. For instance, smallholder farmers have been planting
final article was read and approved by all of the authors.
seedlings on a yearly basis, but with a limited survival rate. This can be
linked to the aridity and low rainfall of the area. Despite the limitations,
Competing interests
smallholder farmers have been planting and continuously engaged in
the rehabilitation of degraded watersheds.
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
The impact of climate change is severe enough to the extent of
damaging their livelihood assets and further declining their production
Consent for publication
bases. In this regard, both the crop and livestock sectors are victims of
the problem. So, having this entire problem, the strategies they
The authors obtained permission from all participants in the North
employed were not enough either to adapt or reduce the impact.
Wollo and Wag Hemera zones to publish their data.
Generally, there might be slight differences in using the adaptation
strategies, but they were noteworthy across the study zones [82]. show
that food-insecure households face limited adaptation choices due to the Ethical approval and consent to participate
costs and perceived risks of adaptation, imperfect access to input and
output markets, and a lack of insurance and credit. Similarly [83], stated Consent to participate was received from everyone interviewed in
that most of the household variables, wealth attributes, institutional North Wollo and Wag Hemera zones, Ethiopia. A research committee
factors (availability of information), social capital, agro-ecological fea­ from Ethiopia’s Ambo University and World Vision Ethiopia were the
tures, and temperature were identified as the principal factors that in­ active participants and close followers of the study.
fluence adaptation to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia.
Funding
4. Conclusion and policy implications
This project was funded by the United States Agency for Interna­
Smallholder agriculture in Ethiopia is not only characterized by its tional Development (USAID) under the Productive Safety Net Pro­
subsistence nature but also by its vulnerability to climate change- gramme (PSNP).
induced shocks. Food insecurity and poverty are widespread in North
Wollo and Wag Humera, with the majority of the population relying on Acknowledgements
food aid. One of the key causes of the community’s severe food inse­
curity and poverty in the area is farmers’ reliance on rain-fed agricul­ The authors are grateful for the financial support from the United
ture, which has failed to meet the people’s growing food demand and States Agency for International Development (USAID). They are also
generate income for other necessities. The problem of food insecurity grateful to World Vision Ethiopia and the International Livestock
has become even more pressing as a result of climate change. Although Research Institute (ILRI) for securing the funds from USAID and for
numerous reasons contribute to low agricultural performance and contributing technical support during the research work, respectively.
resulting food insecurity in the area, bad climatic conditions, particu­ The authors would like to acknowledge Ambo University for hosting the
larly recurring droughts caused by rain shortages and unpredictability, project and coordinating the research project work. Researchers also like
as well as an increase in temperature, are among the most pressing ones. to send special thanks to North Wollo and Wag Hemera zone smallholder
Climate change-induced shocks such as a lack of pasture and water, as farmers, development agents, and experts for providing relevant data
well as animal disease, have brought significant impacts on agricultural and hospitable cooperation during fieldwork.
and livestock production in the area.
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