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Forcasting 2

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15 views23 pages

Forcasting 2

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© © All Rights Reserved
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Production_rate

Present production per month =

No. Month
1 Jan
2 Feb
3 Mar
4 Apr
5 May
6 Jun
7 Jul
8 Aug
9 Seb
10 Oct
11 Nov
12 Des

No. Demand/Productivity per Month


1 3120
2 3120
3 3120
4 1800
5 2520
6 3120
7 2400
8 3120
9 3000
10 2880
11 3000
12 3120
78 34320
45-Kg/hour, 15 Rolls-per-hour,120Rolls/Day
15 rolls-per-hour*8-hours*days-per-month

working-Days with Month


26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
26

XY
3120
6240
9360
7200
12600
18720
16800
24960
27000
28800
33000
37440
225240
Monthly Wo
working-Days without holidays Demand/Productivity per Month
26 3120
26 3120
26 3120
15 1800
21 2520
26 3120
20 2400
26 3120
25 3000
24 2880
25 3000
26 3120

X2 Forcast
1 2776.9
4 2792
9 2807.1
16 2822.2
25 2837.3
36 2852.4
49 2867.5
64 2882.6
81 2897.7
100 2912.8
121 2927.9
144 2943
650 3939.6
Monthly Working Days through Year-2022:
3-period moving average 5-period moving average
- -
- -
- -
3120 -
2680 -
2480 2736
2480 2736
2680 2592
2880 2592
2840 2832
3000 2904
2960 2880

B
15.1048951048951
A
2761.81818181818
Feasibility_Sudy of Insulating Electrical-Cable
Asset
Working_Area
Production_rate

Production_per_Ton

Electric_Power

Labours
Distribution/Delivery_Cost

Hiring_Cost_per_Month

Monthly_Labours_Cost

Raw_Material_cost
Roll_cost
Total_Cost_per_Ton
diameter_of_Pipeline
Raw_Material_Type
Volume
3-period weighted moving average Ft when 𝛼 = 0.3
- -
- 3120
- 3120
3120 3120
2460 2724
2424 2662.8
2676 2799.96
2640 2679.972
2904 2811.9804
2916 2868.38628
2964 2871.870396
2964 2910.3092772
of Insulating Electrical-Cables Pipeline
Data
15*20-m
45-Kg/hour, 120Rolls/Day

13,334-m (75-g /1-m depending on


diameter of pipeline) ,
produced through 22-
hours_and_14-mins,
344-Rolls per Ton /40-m per Roll/
3-kg per Roll

40-KW(Generator of 48-KW /6-


Liter per Hour),
77,280 YEM-RYLs for diesel per
Ton
2-Worker+Salesman/Marketer
22,400 YEM-RYLs per 1-ton

150,000 YEM-RYLs,
8,293 YEM-RYLs for 1-Ton period

Total of 2-wokers through 2-


periods+marketer 1-period,
70,000 YEM-RYLs per 1-period
per 1-woker,
80,000 YEM-RYLs per marketer
for 1-period,
=Total of 360,000 YEM-RYLs,
19,000 YEM-RYLs = labour cost
for 1-Ton period

6,850 KSA-RYLs/ton-1,096,000 YEM-RYLs/ton


10$ per Roll/ 3,334$ per Ton
1,223,876 YEM-RYLs
1/4in~1/2in
Red_PVC available
20*1.5*2-m
Ft when 𝛼 = 0.5 Tt whem β= 0.3
- -
3120 0
3120 0
3120 0
2460 -198
2490 -129.6
2805 3.78000000000002
2602.5 -58.104
2861.25 36.9522
2930.625 46.67904
2905.3125 25.081578
2952.65625 31.7602296
AFt
-
3120
3120
3120
2262
2360.4
2808.78
2544.396
2898.2022
2977.30404
2930.394078
2984.4164796
No. Month Demand/Productivity per Month
1 Jan 3120
2 Feb 3120
3 Mar 3120
4 Apr 1800
5 May 2520
6 Jun 3120
7 Jul 2400
8 Aug 3120
9 Seb 3000
10 Oct 2880
11 Nov 3000
12 Des 3120

No. Month Demand/Productivity per Month


1 Jan 3120
2 Feb 3120
3 Mar 3120
4 Apr 1800
5 May 2520
6 Jun 3120
7 Jul 2400
8 Aug 3120
9 Seb 3000
10 Oct 2880
11 Nov 3000
12 Des 3120

Demand/Productivity
No. per Month XY
1 3120 3120
2 3120 6240
3 3120 9360
4 1800 7200
5 2520 12600
6 3120 18720
7 2400 16800
8 3120 24960
9 3000 27000
10 2880 28800
11 3000 33000
12 3120 37440
78 34320 225240
3-period moving average 5-period moving average
- -
- -
- -
3120 -
2680 -
2480 2736
2480 2736
2680 2592
2880 2592
2840 2832
3000 2904
2960 2880

Ft when 𝛼 = 0.3 Ft when 𝛼 = 0.5


- -
3120 3120
3120 3120
3120 3120
2724 2460
2662.8 2490
2799.96 2805
2679.972 2602.5
2811.9804 2861.25
2868.38628 2930.625
2871.870396 2905.3125
2910.3092772 2952.65625

X2 Forcast
1 2776.9
4 2792
9 2807.1
16 2822.2
25 2837.3
36 2852.4
49 2867.5
64 2882.6
81 2897.7
100 2912.8
121 2927.9
144 2943
650
3-period weighted moving average
-
-
-
3120
2460
2424
2676
2640
2904
2916
2964
2964
No. Demand/Productivity per Month 3-period moving average
1 3120 -
2 3120 -
3 3120 -
4 1800 3120
5 2520 2680
6 3120 2480
7 2400 2480
8 3120 2680
9 3000 2880
10 2880 2840
11 3000 3000
12 3120 2960
D-F ((D-F)/D)*100 (D-F)^2
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
1320 73.3333333333333 1742400 246.6667
160 6.34920634920635 25600 10.67903
640 20.5128205128205 409600 201600
80 3.33333333333333 6400
440 14.1025641025641 193600
120 4 14400
40 1.38888888888889 1600
0 0 0
160 5.12820512820513 25600
2960 128.148351648352 2419200
Demand/Productivity
No. per Month
5-period moving average D-F ((D-F)/D)*100
1 3120 - 0 0
2 3120 - 0 0
3 3120 - 0 0
4 1800 - 0 0
5 2520 - 0 0
6 3120 2736 384 12.307692308
7 2400 2736 336 14
8 3120 2592 528 16.923076923
9 3000 2592 408 13.6
10 2880 2832 48 1.6666666667
11 3000 2904 96 3.2
12 3120 2880 240 7.6923076923
2040 69.38974359
(D-F)^2
0
0
0
0 170
0 5.782479
147456 64560
112896
278784
166464
2304
9216
57600
774720
No.
Demand/Productivity per Month
3-period weighted moving average D - ((D-F)/D)*100
F
1 3120 - 0 0
2 3120 - 0 0
3 3120 - 0 0
4 1800 3120 1320 73.333
5 2520 2460 60 2.381
6 3120 2424 696 22.308
7 2400 2676 276 11.5
8 3120 2640 480 15.385
9 3000 2904 96 3.2
10 2880 2916 36 1.25
11 3000 2964 36 1.2
12 3120 2964 156 5
3156 135.56
(D-F)^2
0
0
0
1742400 263
3600 11.29638
484416 214428
76176
230400
9216
1296
1296
24336
2573136
No.
Demand/Productivity per Month Forcast D-F ((D-F)/D)*100
1 3120 2776.9 343.1 10.996794871795
2 3120 2792 328 10.512820512821
3 3120 2807.1 312.9 10.028846153846
4 1800 2822.2 1022.2 56.788888888889
5 2520 2837.3 317.3 12.59126984127
6 3120 2852.4 267.6 8.5769230769231
7 2400 2867.5 467.5 19.479166666667
8 3120 2882.6 237.4 7.6089743589743
9 3000 2897.7 102.3 3.41
10 2880 2912.8 32.8 1.1388888888889
11 3000 2927.9 72.1 2.4033333333333
12 3120 2943 177 5.6730769230769
3680.2 149.20898351648
(D-F)^2
117717.61
107584
97906.41
1044892.84 306.6833
100679.29 12.43408
71609.76 155281.1
218556.25
56358.76
10465.29
1075.84
5198.41
31329
1863373.46

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