Changes in The Philippine Coastal Environment

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Environmental Science Faculty Publications Environmental Science Department
2021
Changes in the Philippine Coastal Environment

Karl H. Szekielda
Ateneo de Manila University, [email protected]
Ma. Aileen Leah G. Guzman

Ateneo de Manila University, [email protected]
Follow this and additional works at: https://archium.ateneo.edu/es-faculty-pubs
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Custom Citation
Szekielda , K. H., & Guzman, M. A. L. G. (2021). Changes in the Philippine Coastal Environment.
International Journal of Geology, Earth & Environmental Sciences, 11, 198–207. https://www.cibtech.org/
J-GEOLOGY-EARTH-ENVIRONMENT/PUBLICATIONS/2021/JGEE-027-KARL-SZEKIELDA-PHILIPPPINE-
COASTAL.pdf
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International Journal of Geology, Earth & Environmental Sciences ISSN: 2277-2081
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2021 Vol. 11, pp. 198-207/ Szekielda and Guzman
Research Article
CHANGES IN THE PHILIPPPINE COASTAL

ENVIRONMENT
*K. H. Szekielda and M. A. L. G. Guzman

Department of Environmental Science
Ateneo de Manila University
*Author for Correspondence: [email protected]
ABSTRACT
Global warming is progressing at a faster speed than has been estimated earlier in climate
forecasting, and the ocean responds rather quickly to global temperature increase. This study uses
remotely sensed data that were accessed from the System for Multidisciplinary Research and
Applications (NASA Giovanni) to study environmental change in the Philippines’ coast. Monthly
averaged sea surface temperature series from around the Philippines indicate that the Philippines
follow the global trend in ocean temperature increase and show the increase of about 0.50C within
two decades. Despite the high variability in temperature, the linear regressions displayed for all
seasons show an increase with variations in the range of 0.30C to 0.50C. Rainfall in the
Philippines is connected to the local and remote sea surface temperature, and the monsoon
seasons determine to a high degree the rate and volume of precipitation. The data provide
evidence that large-scale processes change the level of precipitation, in particular, with respect to
the interannual changes and variations that appear to be in the frequency range of El Nino events.
The highest rate in sea surface temperature increase is observed for the June to August season
with an estimated value of 0.0360C y-1 and lowest rate is observed for the December to February
season at about 0.0270C y-1. These estimates are based on linear regressions, but the 3rd order
polynomial showed variability at decadal time scales and the results provide an estimate of
possible future changes. By using estimates for 2020 and 2050 it can be projected that within
thirty years, an additional temperature increase of 1.80C can be expected in the Philippines’
coastal waters.
Keywords: Marine Environment, Climate Change, Forecasting
INTRODUCTION
As an island state, the Philippines possesses a large coastal zone relative to its total surface area
and, except for a few islands, most have very limited resources that explain also their restricted
capacity to mitigating the impact of global change. Like many Small Island States (SIDS), one of
the Philippines’ concern is environmental degradation in relation to population issues and the
anticipated impacts of global change, and in particular, of increasing temperatures and rising sea-
level. The Philippines with about 7,600 islands is facing major impacts of climate change that
may hinder their aspects of sustainable development because small islands in the Philippines are
low-lying and their environmental challenges are similar with respect to resource constraints,
population dynamics and exposure to natural disasters and global change. But the magnitude of
these changes may differ from island to island according to their geology and geographic
locations that determine the vulnerability to extreme natural changes and disasters.
Due to the rapid increase in population and industrialization in the watershed, the water quality
deteriorated in the coastal region through excessive urban emissions of nitrogen and phosphorus
compounds that led to higher frequencies of harmful microalgae and persistent red tides.
Centre for Info Bio Technology (CIBTech) 198

Research Article
Whereas, the emission of nutrient level can be controlled at the national level through legislation
and appropriate land and coastal management, sea level increase and temperature changes are on
a global scale, and external driving factors threaten individual countries. The findings by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) showed with high confidence that
human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-
industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C
between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate. Although anthropogenic
emissions of greenhouse gases may be reduced in the future, elevated CO2 concentration will still
remain in the atmosphere. There is high confidence that for centuries to millennia, greenhouse
gases will continue to contribute to changes in the climate system, in particular, to temperature
and sea level increase (IPCC, 2018). Because the level and progression of warming varies also
with geographic location, this unsettling scenario alerts countries to evaluate their own
monitoring strategies in order to set national guidelines for avoidance and mitigation of
environmental and socio-economic impact of global change. Accordingly, the Philippines
established the Climate Change Commission (CCC), to consolidate climate policy across all
levels of government and to guide national programs.
There is now an indication that global warming is progressing at a faster speed than has been
estimated earlier in climate forecasting, and the ocean responds rather quickly to global
temperature changes. Temperature anomalies are also changing in magnitude, in frequency, as
well as in temporal occurrence, and it has been estimated that temperature will rise by 2025 with
a 40% chance of being 1.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial level. Most affected by temperature
and sea level increase are smaller islands if linear projections for the next decades are valid. For
instance, The Bahamas is already exposed to a critical scenario related to the global warming
trend that will surpass the lower limit of global temperature increase as recommended by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Szekielda and Watson, 2021). Climate projections
for the Philippines show that a temperature increase of about 1.8°–2.2°C increase can be
anticipated by 2050 that can lead to wetter wet season, drier dry season and increased incidence
of extreme weather and hazardous events. Furthermore, sea levels in the Philippines are rising
faster than the global average and estimates for sea level rise by 2100 show an increase of about
0.48-0.65 m that will also increase threats by storm surges and will result in inundation of regions
with low topography.
For appropriate planning with respect to sustainable development, it is essential to have access to
a database that would allow, for instance, to mitigate the potential impact of climate change on
various resource areas, health and infrastructure in the Philippines (USAID, 2017).
The present global temperature increase is a threat to sustainable development as can be observed
in the changes in the ecosystem that have already been documented on a global scale. There are
indications that the global marine ecosystem is equally undergoing substantial changes
(Behrenfeld et al., 2006), and locally, large changes appear in chlorophyll concentration and
temperature distribution (Szekielda 2020a,b,c). As global oceanic primary production is in
decline, it raises the question of how far regional and local biological systems are affected by
global change. For instance, large ecosystems like the upwelling in the NW Indian Ocean have
already shown significant modifications (Szekielda, 2021a). The trend, based on studies
conducted in time series, show the link of major environmental management changes and effects
of nutrient flow and changes in eutrophication of coastal regions especially in the vicinity of river
discharge that indicates significant reduction in biomass concentrations and temperature increase
(Szekielda, 2021b).
The Philippines weather and climate are mainly dominated by the southwest monsoon that lasts
approximately from May to October, and the northeast monsoon from November to April with a
temperature range of about 21°C to 32°C. Based on temperature and rainfall data, the climate of

Research Article
the country can be divided into the major seasons, namely the rainy season, that last
approximately from June to November; and the dry season that covers normally the time from
December to May. However, rainfall distribution throughout the Philippines varies from one
region to another, depending upon the direction of the moisture-bearing winds and location of the
mountain systems.
The above-described scenario, although not complete, indicates a complicated picture with
respect to the anticipated future changes and uncertainties in forecasting the socio-economic
impact of global climate change at local and regional levels. Consequently, there is a need to
further elaborate on the environmental conditions that can be expected to change in response to
global warming. It is therefore the aim of the following study to identify changes of
environmental conditions in the coastal region of the Philippines based on long-time observations
of temperature and precipitation, and use the observations to estimate potential changes for the
next decades to come with respect to local warming trends.
The study takes into account that the West Philippine Sea has a very fragile marine environment
that is under threat through global change:
1. The coastal sea in the West Philippine Sea contains higher biomass concentrations compared to
the eastern coast in the Pacific, and water exchange through several straits already indicate
signals that result from global warming;
2. Preliminary observations with inter-annual time series of chlorophyll show highest values
during the NE monsoon, December to February, and lowest for March to May, but significant
changes were observed over decades that are most probably linked to climate change;
3. Sea surface temperatures increased around the Philippine coast during the last decades, and it is
important to identify the scale and trend of temperature changes in the coastal zone in order to act
appropriately in mitigating the impact of climate change;
4. Rainfall in the Philippines is connected to the local and remote sea surface temperature, and the
monsoon seasons determine to a high degree the rate and volume of precipitation.
MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study uses remotely sensed data that were accessed from the System for Multidisciplinary
Research and Applications (NASA Giovanni). The system allows the analysis of Earth remote
sensing data on weather, climate, atmospheric composition and dynamics, oceanography and
hydrological processes, and it can be accessed through https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/. The data
sets in this study cover a time frame of almost two decades. Sea surface temperature is based on
daytime measurements through the atmospheric window at 11μm and is expressed in centigrade.
Remotely sensed temperature estimates and rainfall data were analyzed as monthly averaged
mean and were then subdivided by seasons. Rainfall data were reported for the land surfaces of
the Philippines and sea surface temperature was analyzed for the surrounding waters of the
Philippines covering the region that is shown in Figure 1 and is defined by the coordinates at site
1170E, 50N, 1280E, 200N.
RESULTS
Figures 2A and 2B show the periodicity in precipitation due to the monsoonal changes, and its
interpretation has to take into account regional differences that impact the averaged data. The
progression from the summer raining season to the winter dry season is not continuous, rather,
complexity is introduced because the data contain measurements from different geographical
locations that have varying climate and local forcing factors such as typhoons and changes in sea
surface temperature. For instance, during the northeast monsoon coastal upwelling, changes in
sea surface temperature relate to wind stress (Martin and Villanoy, 2007), and the intensity of El
Niño and La Niña episodes have an impact on coastal weather conditions. In addition, the eastern

Research Article
coast of Luzon is impacted by the Kuroshio Current that sheds aperiodically eddies through the
Luzon Strait into the western part of Luzon and further into the South China Sea that elevates
occasionally the sea surface temperature (Jia and Chassignet, 2011, Szekielda, 2020c).
The data provide evidence that large-scale processes change the level of precipitation, in
particular, with respect to the interannual changes and variations that appear to be in the
frequency range of El Nino events as indicated by the 3rd order polynomial fit of the data in
Figure 2B. The same figure also shows the linear regression with a trendline that indicates a slight
decrease of precipitation.
Figure 1: Location of sea surface temperature observations that covers the area 1170E, 50N,
1280E, 200N. Rainfall data were analyzed over the land cover of the Philippines only.
Although the changes in precipitation and sea surface temperature seem to be small, the analysis
demonstrates a change in precipitation over a time span of twenty years that may be related to
environmental degradation that have already affected the Philippines' agriculture, water,
infrastructure, and coastal ecosystems (USAID, 2017).
A monthly averaged sea surface temperature series from regions around the Philippines as shown
in Figure 3A indicates that the Philippines follow the global trend in ocean temperature increase
and shows the increase of about 0.5C within two decades. Furthermore, the typical annual
fluctuations due to the monsoon seasons are recognized, but interannual changes are detected.
The difference in temperature between night and day in Figure 3B seems to be constant, at a level
of around 0.7C lower at night compared to the day temperature although a small variation was
observed around 2014.
Research Article
Figure 2: A. Time series of precipitation over Philippine land surfaces. The linear
regression lines are shown in red and the 3rd order polynomial fit in blue. The regressions
are shown in Figure 2B with an expanded vertical scale.
Figure 3: A. Sea surface temperature series for the Philippine site at 1170E, 50N, 1280E,
200N as shown in Figure 1. The linear regression lines are shown in red and the 3 rd order
polynomial fit in blue. B. Difference day-night temperature changes.

PHILIPPINE SITE
117 0 E, 5 0 N ,128 0 E,
200N Journal of Geology, Earth & Environmental Sciences ISSN: 2277-2081
International
Research Article
Figure 4: Seasonal sea surface temperature changes for Philippine site at 1170E, 50N, 1280E,
200N, as shown in Figure 1. The linear regression lines are shown in red and the 3 rd order
polynomial fit in blue.
Precipitation in the Philippines is controlled by atmospheric circulation and sea surface

temperature that influence either locally or remotely the rainfall. However the yearly averaged
data suppress fluctuations that are based on seasonal changes especially those that appear during
the summer and winter seasons. In order to isolate details of interannual changes, sea surface
temperature and precipitation data were subdivided according to seasons. Figure 4 shows the
analysis of sea surface temperature with the corresponding linear regressions and 3 rd order
polynomial fits.
Relation between sea surface temperature and precipitation over land are complicated as shown in
INTERANNUAL
Figure 5 in conjunction with PRECIPITAION CHANGES
scatter diagrams AND SEA
comparing SURFACE and sea surface
precipitation
TEMPERATURE RELATIONS IN tHE PHILIPPINES 2003-2019
temperature changes.
Figure 5: Interannual precipitaion changes and relationship between sea surface

temperature and precipitation in the Philippines grouped by seasons. The left column
shows monthly-averaged precipitation expressed in mm hr-1, and the right column shows
the temperature-precipitation relationship. The linear regression lines are shown in red and
the 3rd order polynomial fit in blue.

Research Article
Figure 5 continued: Interannual precipitaion changes and relationship between sea surface
temperature and precipitation in the Philippines grouped by seasons.
The interannual presentation of precipitation rate and the relationship to sea surface temperature
shows that in addition to seasonal differences in precipitation, considerable variance is observed
and shows that intensity and duration are not uniform from year to year. The data for the summer
season June to August show a negative relationship between sea surface temperature and
precipitation. Normally, precipitation coincides with warmer sea surface temperatures, however, a
negative correlation was earlier observed during the summer monsoon as well (Trenberth and
Shea, 2005). Stronger heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere and increased turbulence in
the upper water column due to elevated wind speed explain the cooling. Thus, the negative
correlation between rainfall and sea surface temperature during the SW monsoon is not
necessarily the cause for increasing rainfall as the relation may reveal. This is in agreement with
observations under similar conditions during the SW monsoon, particularly during moderate and
relatively stronger monsoon regimes, when a warmer local sea surface temperature is generally
related to a more intense rainfall over the western Philippines (Takahashi and Dado, 2018).
DISCUSSION
The analysis presented in Figure 4 is used to estimate the rate of sea surface temperature changes
and the results are listed in Table 1 for the seasons in 2020, 2035 and 2050. The highest rate is
observed for the June to August season with an estimated value of about 0.036 0C y-1 and lowest
rate is observed for the December to February season at 0.0270C y-1. These estimates are based on
linear regressions, but the 3rd order polynomial showed variability at decadal time scales and the
results provide hindsight to the dimension of possible future changes.
Using estimates between 2020 and 2050 it can be projected that within thirty years a temperature
increase of 1.80C can be expected. Taking into account the estimates for temperature increase
made by the IPCC (2021b) showing that global surface temperature was about 1.090C higher in
2011–2020 compared to 1850–1900 with an increase in the ocean of about 0.880C, we would
have a total increase in temperature of about 30C over a time span of 100 years that would
correspond to a warming trend of about 0.0030C y-1.

Research Article
Table 1: Estimated sea surface temperature changes for the Philippine coast. The last
column gives the approximated temperature increase (0C y-1) for the time span 2020 to 2050.
0 0 0
SEASON EQUATION C 2020 C 2035 C 2050 0C y-1
DEC -FEB y = 0.0273x - 27.15 28.00 28.41 28.82 0.027
MAR-MAY y = 0.0255x - 22.143 29.37 29.75 30.13 0.025
JUN-AUG y = 0.0361x - 42.479 30.44 30.99 31.53 0.036
SEP-NOV y = 0.0155x - 1.7657 29.54 29.78 30.01 0.008
Temperature forecasting for all seasons shows that the land surface of the Philippines is exposed
to increasing mean temperatures by 1.80C to 2.20C in 2050 relative to the baseline established for
1971-2000 (PAGASA, no year). Estimates show for the period 1951 to 2010 an increase of about
0.650C that corresponds to an average increase of about 0.0110C y-1. In comparison, the average
rate for the surrounding ocean area of the Philippines based on the present study gives an average
increase of sea surface temperature of about 0.0240C y-1. Under the assumption that the different
data sets are comparable, the ocean temperature seems to increase at a higher rate than the land
surfaces of the Philippines. In addition, the temperature increase in the ocean is not evenly
distributed and linear regression analysis shows that the slope of increase differs from region to
region. This is an important factor in mitigating the effect of global warming with sustainable
development strategies especially for small islands. For instance, a comparison of observations
from the Philippines with those obtained in The Bahamas in Table 2, provides evidence that the
change in sea surface temperature (0C y-1) varies to a high degree between the two regions by
almost a factor of two.
Table 2: Estimates of temperature increase (oCy-1) based on linear regression for seasons,
(1) this manuscript, 2 ) Szekielda and Watson, 2021).
SEASONS PHILIPPINES1) BAHAMAS 2)
DEC -FEB 0.027 0.064
MAR-MAY 0.025 0.048
JUN-AUG 0.036 0.040
SEP-NOV 0.008 0.068
The described analysis of selected environmental conditions of the Philippines has to be viewed
against the outcome of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) that
assessed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature relevant to global warming of 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels. The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, 2021)
PHILIPPINE reiterated
COASTAL SITEthat climate
1170E, 50N ,128changes
0E, 200N are widespread, rapid, and
intensifying. “Unless there are immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, limiting warming to 1.5°C will be beyond reach”. The forecasting showed a global
warming that is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the
current rate. Extreme ocean temperature increase have already documented for large ocean
regions (Roxy et al., 2019, Szekielda, 2020b). The surface temperature of the oceans to a depth of
about 700 meters has been warmed at a rate by 0.11°C, 0.07°C and 0.05°C per decade for the
Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, respectively (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018). However,
deviations from the global annual average increase of temperature can be higher, and the
Philippines are not an exemption from this trend. The problem of global sea surface temperature

Research Article
increase is that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases will persist for centuries to
millennia especially in the atmosphere, and will continue to be the risks for human survival.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Analyses and visualizations used in this study were produced with the Giovanni online data
system, developed and maintained by NASA GES DISC. The author is a Fulbright alumni and
Affiliated Professor at The Ateneo University de Manila and Research Associate at EEC,
Columbia University, New York.
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Ateneo de Manila University

Environmental Science Faculty Publications Environmental Science Department

Changes in the Philippine Coastal Environment

Ma. Aileen Leah G. Guzman

Follow this and additional works at: https://archium.ateneo.edu/es-faculty-pubs

CHANGES IN THE PHILIPPPINE COASTAL

*K. H. Szekielda and M. A. L. G. Guzman

Keywords: Marine Environment, Climate Change, Forecasting

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MATERIALS AND METHODS

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Precipitation in the Philippines is controlled by atmospheric circulation and sea surface

Figure 5: Interannual precipitaion changes and relationship between sea surface

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