Sequia 1
Sequia 1
Sequia 1
1): e20170209
(Annals of the Brazilian Academy of Sciences)
Printed version ISSN 0001-3765 / Online version ISSN 1678-2690
http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0001-3765201720170209
www.scielo.br/aabc | www.fb.com/aabcjournal
REGINA C.S. ALVALÁ, ANA PAULA M.A. CUNHA, SHEILA S.B. BRITO, MARCELO E.
SELUCHI, JOSÉ A. MARENGO, OSVALDO L.L. MORAES and MAGOG A. CARVALHO
Manuscript received on March 21, 2017; accepted for publication on June 12, 2017
How to cite: ALVALÁ RCS, CUNHA APMA, BRITO SSB, SELUCHI ME, MARENGO JA, MORAES OLL AND
CARVALHO MA. 2019. Drought monitoring in the Brazilian Semiarid region. An Acad Bras Cienc 91: e20170209.
DOI 10.1590/0001-3765201720170209.
Abstract: Drought is a natural and recurrent phenomenon. It is considered ‘a natural disaster’ whenever
it occurs in an intensive manner in highly populated regions, resulting in significant damage (material
and human) and loss (socioeconomic). This paper presents the efforts developed to monitor the impact
of drought in the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil. In this scope, information from different sources is
compiled to support the evaluation and identification of impacted municipalities, with the main objective
of supporting emergency actions to mitigate their impact. In the semiarid region of Brazil there are frequent
occurrences of dry periods during the rainy season, which, depending on the intensity and duration, can
cause significant damage to family-farmed crops, with a farming system characterized by low productivity
indices. However, rain-fed agriculture has great economic expression and high social importance due to
the region is densely occupied, and contributes to the establishment of communities in the countryside.
Specifically, in the present study, the methodology adopted to monitor the impact of agricultural droughts,
including an analysis of the hydrological year 2015-2016, is presented, considering different water stress
indicators for the identification of the affected municipalities and assessment of the methods and tools
developed.
Key words: agriculture, drought impacts, drought monitoring, semiarid, dry farming, Northeast Brazil.
resulting in significant damage (material and evapotranspiration rate (Ab’Saber 1999). The
human) and loss (socioeconomic). Given the occurrence of dry periods during the rainy season
growing demand for water worldwide as a result (‘veranicos’) is frequent and, depending on
of population growth and the expansion of the their intensity and duration, they may cause, for
agriculture and livestock, energy and industrial example, significant damage to subsistence crops
sectors, this is an increasingly frequent occurrence. (type of agricultural production predominant in
During periods of extreme drought, food security the semiarid region), consequently affecting the
for the most vulnerable communities, such as those family-run agriculture business.
in the semiarid regions, suffers pressures with As highlighted by Bezerra (2016), production
reduced subsistence production, reduced income in the semiarid region is generally characterized
and increased pricing of agricultural products. by extensive livestock farming and subsistence
Food price inflation, associated with loss of income agriculture with low technological investment
due to harvest shortfalls, loss of productivity and and low productivity (Nascimento 2006, Marengo
unemployment, results in low food security and, in 2008), which, owing to the absence of alternative
extreme cases, in famine. strategies, forces the producers to use the natural
According to a report of the World resources in an intensive and abusive manner (Sá
Meteorological Organization (WMO 2015), during et al. 2010, Pantalena 2012). This contributes to
the period between 1970 and 2012, 8,835 natural worsened soil degradation in this region, mainly
disasters were reported that caused about 1.94 because of the degradation of the areas used for
million deaths and economic losses of US$ 2.3 grazing (Parente and Parente 2010), and the low
trillion worldwide. In 2011 alone, according to the productivity of dry farming, which is affected by
United Nations – International Strategy for Disaster the high intra-seasonal and inter-annual rainfall
Reduction (ISDR 2012), disasters occurring that variability that characterizes the Brazilian semiarid
year across the entire planet ultimately resulted in region. Since the crops are used for the subsistence
record financial losses of approximately US$ 366 of small farmers’ families and for animal feeding,
billion, and an estimated 201 million people were there is a strong relationship between agricultural
affected as a result of 302 disasters recorded. From productivity and food security in rural regions.
this total number of people affected, it is estimated According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography
that 63 million are victims of drought. and Statistics (IBGE 2014), the Northeast region
In Brazil, such a phenomenon is characterized presents the most critical situation within the
by its wide spatial coverage and is recurrent in the country in regard to food security, and 38% of the
Brazilian semiarid region (Semiárido do Brasil population presents signs of food restrictions in
- SAB), mainly due to its hydric vulnerability. their daily diet.
Approximately 24 million people live in the For more than a century, efforts have been
SAB, which is equivalent to 12% of the national made to support the formulation of strategies for the
population (IBGE 2017), designating it the prevention and mitigation of the effects of droughts
most densely populated dry region in the world (Gutierrez et al. 2014). More recently, in 2013
(Ab’Saber 1985, Marengo 2008, Rêgo 2012). the National Integration Ministry (Ministério de
The SAB is characterized by presenting Integração Nacional − MI) established partnerships
irregularity in rainfall distribution, shallow and with National Water Agency (Agência Nacional
rocky soils – which gives it low water storage de Águas − ANA) and with the Ceará Foundation
capacity, a small draining system, and a high for Meteorology and Water Resources (Fundação
Figure 1 - Geographic limits of the monitored area (SUDENE’s acting area - blue line; limits of the Brazilian semiarid region - red
line) (a); and land use and land cover map of the Brazilian Northeast (Source: Adapted from Vieira et al. 2013) (b).
croplands. Other land types covered are ‘caatinga’ Bhuiyan et al. 2006, Yagci et al. 2011, Zhou et al.
(closed and open shrublands) and savanna (Figure 2012, Du et al. 2013, Yang et al. 2013, Abbas et al.
1). In 2010, the total area for pasture and agricultural 2014, Cunha et al. 2015). Traditional methods of
activities was 1,024,621 km2, which represents drought assessment and monitoring rely on rainfall
57% of the Northeast of Brazil (Vieira et al. 2013). data (e.g., Precipitation Percentile). However,
The Brazilian semiarid region is included in in a region where the density of meteorological
the acting area of SUDENE, covering an area of stations as well as the temporal scale of the data
980,323 km2 and including 1,136 municipalities are insufficient, it is impossible to monitor drought
(Figure 1). using indices that are based on rainfall data. In
contrast, satellite-sensor data are consistently
METHODOLOGY FOR MONITORING DROUGHT
available and can be used to detect the onset of
The quantification of drought is usually determined drought, its duration and magnitude across large
by remotely sensed spectral indices and water areas (Thiruvengadachari and Gopalkrishna 1993).
balance simulations. A number of drought indices, A large number of drought indices are based on
including meteorological (Wilhite and Glantz the Land Surface Temperature – Normalized
1985), remote sensed, hydrological and other Difference Vegetation (LST-NDVI) space such
indicators, have been used to measure drought as Vegetation Health Index (VHI, Kogan 1990,
impacts (Palmer 1965, 1968, Kogan 1990, 2002, 1997), Temperature-Vegetation Drought Index
McKee et al. 1993, Keyantash and Dracup 2004, (TVDI, Sandholt et al. 2002), Vegetation Supply
Water Index (VSWI, Carlson et al. 1990, 1994), wet periods in Ceará State, localized in semiarid
and Drought Severity Index (DSI, Mu et al. 2013, region. The meteorological drought monitoring
Cunha et al. 2015). So, considering the spatial is based on percentiles considering the frequency
dimension of the monitored area, as well as the distribution of precipitation divided into three
available in situ data, in the present study the parts. For the calculation of the percentiles of
indicators adopted were based on remote sensed cumulative rainfall, a historical precipitation
data and rainfall measurements. database is used, starting in 1999, which is updated
in monthly bulletins. The historical cumulative
Meteorological Drought
data are organized in ascending order and all of
a) Precipitation Observational Data – Integrated them represent the total of the series, i.e. 100% of
Network the data. For example, percentile 15 is the amount
The rainfall data necessary for the monitoring of (historical) precipitation that separates 15% of
implemented by CEMADEN derive from the rain the lowest values in the series from the remaining
gauge station data from different sources (INPE, 85%. Therefore, if at a certain period of time a
CEMADEN, National Meteorology Institute region was classified as ‘Very Dry’, this means that
[Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia – INMET], the cumulative rainfall of this region was classified
and the State Meteorology Centers) for the period among the 15% lowest values in the series. The
1999-2017. The data are interpolated in a regular category ‘Dry’ includes regions that present
grid of 5 km of spatial resolution, using the ordinary precipitation between 15% and 35% of the lowest
kriging technique (Matheron 1969). The Kriging values in the series, and so on.
method is considered the best linear unbiased
Agricultural Drought
estimator because its estimates are weighted linear
combinations of the data and deviations between a) Vegetation Supply Water Index (VSWI)
value and estimated value are null. The same The VSWI derives from the Normalized
interpolated data was used in the water balance Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and canopy
model developed by PROCLIMA/INPE (Souza et temperature data, generated by the Moderate
al. 2001), to estimate soil moisture and the days of
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
soil moisture deficit.
sensor aboard the AQUA and TERRA satellites,
b) Evaluation of Cumulative Rainfall Percentiles in with a resolution of 1 km (composition performed
the Hydrological Years in order to obtain data with higher temporal
The percentile is used as a way to classify the resolution). The data used comprises the period
status of each municipality according to the amount 2003-2016.
of precipitation received, as explained below: The index indicates a drought condition when
• Very Dry (precipitation below or equal the NDVI (vegetation index) is low (indicating
percentile 15); low photosynthesis activity) and the vegetation
• Dry (precipitation between percentiles 15 temperature is high (indicating water stress).
and 35, where 35 is included); Therefore, the index is inversely proportional to the
• Normal (precipitation between percentiles moisture content of the soil and provides indirect
35 and 65, where 65 is included). information about the water supply to the vegetation
The thresholds adopted were also used by (Cunha et al. 2015). The relationship between
Xavier and Xavier (1999) to assessment of dry and canopy temperature and the NDVI has been used
at large drought monitoring centers in different concept of a hydrological year is used to enable an
countries, such as the United States (National assessment of drought conditions considering the
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA) region’s hydrological cycle (DNAEE 1976), i.e.
and China. considering that it starts in October and ends in
One of the adaptations conducted for the September. The last hydrological years were marked
application of the VSWI as an indicator of drought by precipitation levels below the climatological
impact involved calculating the index only over average for SAB, as shown in Figure 2. According
pasture and agricultural lands, thus excluding urban to Marengo et al. (in press) in a companion paper,
areas, water bodies and natural vegetation (Cunha since 2011 the semiarid region of NEB has been
et al. 2015). The spatial limit of the areas used for experiencing one of the 147 longest and most
pasture and agricultural lands was extracted from intense droughts in decades. Meteorological
the Land Cover Land Use map of the study area conditions associated with the temperatures of the
(Vieira et al. 2013). This map was derived from Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including the presence
a Landsat 7 equipped with Enhanced Thematic of an intense El Niño event in 2015−2016, as well
Mapper Plus (15 m) and Landsat 5 Thematic as large-scale disturbances, resulted in a shift of
Mapper (30 and 60 m) mosaic (Vieira et al. 2013). the intertropical convergence zone to the North
The map presents the location and distribution of of its climatological position, contributing to the
major vegetation types and non-vegetated land worsening and persistence of drought conditions.
surface formations for the Northeast Brazil Region, In terms of annual accumulated precipitation, the
which includes the semiarid region (Figure 1). hydrological year 2015−2016 was identified as the
The VSWI anomalies percentage (difference second-driest period after 2012−2013 (Figure 2), in
between the average VSWI and the VSWI value) agreement with Marengo et al. (in press).
were calculated to evaluate changes in the index Figure 3a shows the classification of drought
relative to normal conditions. A positive anomaly condition according percentile precipitation for
percentage indicates different levels of vegetation hydrological year 2015-2016 for each municipality
stress, and a negative anomaly percentage means in the monitored area. In addition, Figures 3b,
a favorable condition for vegetation (Cunha et al. 3c and 3d show the accumulated precipitation
in press). From the VSWI anomalies percentage it corresponding to the 15% (very dry), 30% (dry) and
is possible to estimate the percentage of the area 65% (normal) percentiles. For most of the semi-arid
used for agricultural and livestock activities that region, the cumulative annual precipitation below
has been affected by the drought. 600 mm corresponds to the very dry condition,
while in the interior of semi-arid region the same
RESULTS drought classification corresponds to precipitation
below 300 mm (Figure 3b). In order to discuss the
ANALYSIS OF THE HYDROLOGICAL YEAR 2015-
2016 affected sub-regions, the results were analyzed
considering all the states in the SUDENE’s acting
A first characterization of the meteorological area. According to the percentile precipitation, aw
drought was conducted taking into account the most affected areas (precipitation deficit) are
information from rain gauges obtained from the those identified as “Very Dry”, mainly localized
integrated network of precipitation data collected in the states of Maranhão, Piauí, southern Ceará,
in the last six hydrological years (from the start of Alagoas, Sergipe, east and south of the state of
the rainy period until the end of the dry period). The Bahia, some parts of northern Minas Gerais and
from the Federal Government to the municipalities as the number of municipalities affected by
affected. the drought and recognized by the MI and the
As noted by Marengo et al. (2016), according Secretariat of Family Farming of the MDA (SAF/
to the MI the losses caused by the effects of drought MDA). For the evaluation of losses, in addition to
on the agriculture sector in the Northeast of Brazil information associated with CEMADEN indexes
in 2010−2015 were US$6 billion. According to data (VSWI and precipitation data), the SAF/MDA uses
from the Integrated Disaster Information System meteorological analyses provided by the INMET,
− S2ID, developed by the National Secretariat for based on their own data or on data provided by
Civil Protection and Defense (Secretaria Nacional other institutions in the country or abroad; crop
de Proteção e Defesa Civil – SEDEC), only in estimates provided by the IBGE; and information
2016 did the Federal Government recognize the on constant losses of technical reports, in the form
emergency situation in 1,270 municipalities as a defined in decree by the MDA.
result of the drought. Such recognition allows the From Figure 7, and comparing the municipalities
municipalities to request the support of the Federal impacted by the drought and dry season recognized
Government for emergency measures to face the by the MI, it is observed that the indexes (VSWI and
water scarcity period. In addition to enabling precipitation percentile) underestimated the number
access to treated water supply programs, such as of municipalities affected in the states of Espírito
the Carro-Pipa Federal Operation, this recognition Santo, Paraíba and Pernambuco, and overestimated
also allows municipalities to be entitled to other the number of municipalities affected in the states
benefits. Among them, the debt renegotiation in of Ceará, Maranhão and Rio Grande do Norte.
the agriculture sector and acquisition of basic food In the states of Alagoas and Bahia, the indexes
baskets to assist in the economic recovery of the diverged, i.e. when an index underestimates the
regions affected. other overestimates. Best estimates were obtained
Figure 7 presents the number of municipalities for the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.
affected by the drought in the past hydrological Comparing the municipalities that joined the
year of 2015−2016; these were identified through Crop Guarantee Program, the indexes (VSWI and
the VSWI, the precipitation percentile, as well precipitation percentile) overestimated the number
TABLE I
Impacts of drought in the municipalities related with SUDENE’s acting area from 2015 to 2016.
Municipalities with Estimation of family farming
State Municipalities more than 50% of Affected areas (ha) establishments susceptible to
affected area drought impact
BA 417 194 15,867,556.68 333,640
CE 184 86 4,331,446.80 151,048
PI 224 115 7,548,151.92 106,879
PB 223 105 2,111,169.13 64,925
AL 102 39 895,407.80 69,372
RN 167 79 1,731,129.62 37,382
MA 217 48 3,719,232.72 36,072
SE 75 34 921,318.92 42,470
ES 28 27 1,950,260.16 25,171
PE 184 76 3,584,318.06 141,143
MG 168 120 10,004,976.17 99,017
TOTAL 1989 923 52,664,967.98 1,107,119
Figure 3 - Classification of the drought condition according to the percentile of precipitation from October
2015 to September 2016: (a) and accumulated rainfall (mm) for thresholds Percentile 15% (b) Percentile 35%
(c) and Percentile 65% (d).
of municipalities in the states of Ceará, Paraíba, methodology contemplates the evaluation of all
Pernambuco, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte, the municipalities included in the SUDENE acting
whereas they underestimated these for the states area, without repressing those that are not part of
of Alagoas, Maranhão, Minas Gerais and Sergipe. the Crop Guarantee Program (as the majority of
The only divergence observed was for the state of the municipalities that are outside the limits of the
Bahia, i.e. the VSWI underestimated the number semiarid region). The number of municipalities in
of municipalities and the percentile overestimated the states where underestimation was observed may
them. Best estimates obtained were for the states be correlated with the municipality’s policies with
of Bahia and Minas Gerais. It is observed that regard to insurance application. In general, other
the estimate of municipalities affected by drought reasons for the discrepancies may be associated
obtained with the VSWI is in agreement with the with the fact that the family farming business units
number of municipalities recognized by the MI in the are included in small areas, or the fact that the
states of Bahia and Espírito Santo. It is highlighted municipalities have more or fewer field workers
that the number of the municipalities affected by to develop reports from in loco inspections (and
drought underestimated through the indexes (VSWI this is one of the criterion adopted by the Garantia
and percentile) is associated with the fact that the Safra Program).
Figure 4 - Accumulated precipitation (mm) for a selected area characterized by a “Very Dry” condition (black box) for the period
of 1999-2016, including the values of percentiles.
Figure 8 presents the number of individuals owing to crop losses in 2015−2016, providing
affected by droughts and dry periods in 2016 assistance to approximately 700,000 farmers, all
that are recognized by the Federal Government, due to losses associated with droughts (SAF/MDA
as well as the estimated number of individuals 2017).
affected by droughts based on the municipalities
DISCUSSION
identified by the VSWI and precipitation percentile
indexes. In general, the indicators overestimate In this paper, the efforts of the National Center for
the number of individuals affected, except those Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters
estimated for the states of Ceará and Paraíba, (CEMADEN) to monitor the impact of drought in
which were underestimated. For the states of the semiarid region of Brazil are presented. The
Ceará, Espírito Santo, Paraíba and Rio Grande methodology used for monitoring and an analysis
do Norte, the indexes showed better correlations, of the hydrological period of 2015−2016 are
whereas the worst estimate was observed for the presented here. This last year is included in the
state of Maranhão. It is noted that the number of period comprising the past five hydrological years,
people affected by droughts and reported by the which has been marked by drought recurrence in
MI is inferior to the total number of inhabitants in the semiarid region.
those municipalities, and these are considered to be The drought that has been affecting the
estimates of the number of people affected by the Brazilian semiarid region since 2012 until today
VSWI and percentile indexes. is characterized by an intensity and impact in
According to data from the Special Bureau for agriculture and water supply not seen in the past
Family Agriculture Business and Development, decades. The hydrological year 2015−2016 was
1,220 municipalities received the Garantia Safra the second-driest period after 2011−2012. The
Figure 5 - Drought intensity based on the VSWI anomaly for Figure 6 - Municipality area percentage affected by drought
hydrological year 2015−2016. according to VSWI anomaly percentage for hydrological year
2015−2016.
precipitation percentile and VSWI anomalies Maranhão) certainly corroborates for the greatest
percentage depict a drought situation, indicating discrepancies in the final result. As highlighted by
that all the states in the SUDENE’s acting area Cunha et al. (2015), due to the different sources of
were affected by drought during the hydrological information and principles that are used for drought
year 2015−2016. It is highlighted that the impact of indices, monitoring results that are obtained from
drought on the vegetation was not restricted only to indicators often have certain differences. It can be
the limits of the semiarid area, i.e. parts of the states determined that any single index is not sufficient
of Maranhão and Espírito Santo were also affected. for precisely depicting drought characteristics.
Figure 9 presents the spatial pattern of agreement Thus, the combined use of different indicators
of the drought monitoring methodologies at the same time or indices that integrate various
considered in this study. In total, the agreement sources of information may achieve results that are
of the methodology (percentile and VSWI more consistent with the actual situation.
indicators) occurred in approximately 60% of the In general, the indexes were adequate for the
municipalities. Since the indicators are calculated estimation of the number of municipalities and
with different data types, some divergences were individuals affected, which can be seen through
expected to be found. The low density of rainfall the magnitude of the estimated values. It should
stations in some regions (such as in the State of be noted that, in some cases, local policies and
Figure 7 - Municipalities affected by drought according to the methodology proposed (VSWI index and
precipitation percentile) and those duly recognized by the National Integration Ministry and the Crop
Guarantee Program.
Figure 8 - People affected by droughts according to the methodology proposed (VSWI and precipitation
percentile) and those duly recognized by the National Integration Ministry.
actions may have validated some of the differences million were spent, including only the Crop
identified. In addition, it is important to highlight Guarantee Insurance. Drought also caused damage
that improvements are already being made in to agricultural production, with grain production
order to include socioeconomic aspects in the in the Northeast region presenting a reduction of
methodology used. about 40% compared with the crop of 2014−2015.
Only considering the hydrologic year of For sugarcane production, the reduction was in the
2015−2016, drought impacted approximately 12 order of 19% relative to the previous crop (CONAB
thousand people in the acting area of SUDENE, 2017). Regarding the impact on water supply, the
thus exceeding the limit of the semiarid region. water reserves of the equivalent reservoirs in the
Concerning to economic losses, about R$ 600 Northeast have presented successive reductions
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