Dan Altman - Beyond Shots - A New Approach To Quantifying Scoring Opportunities
Dan Altman - Beyond Shots - A New Approach To Quantifying Scoring Opportunities
Dan Altman - Beyond Shots - A New Approach To Quantifying Scoring Opportunities
Dan Altman
@NYAsoccer
#OptaProforum
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Goals can be idiosyncratic, and many players aren’t directly involved in them
• We need less noisy metrics for the performance of players all over the pitch
Metrics for individual players should sum to a team metric correlated with results
Metrics for players should be consistent from year to year and give good incentives
Metrics for teams should pick up predictive power early in the season
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Shots are more common than goals, and creating shots seems to be a more
consistent part of performance than scoring goals
Early in the season, a team’s expected goals are a better predictor of its final
position in the table than many other metrics, including shot ratios
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Expected goal
difference was
correlated at 0.83
with final positions in
the table in 2012-13
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Is there an alternative?
The estimated chance of scoring a goal within a given time period can be attached
to any class of situations that can be measured consistently over the season
Just as for shots, contributions to situations can be divided up among players, and
arbitrary rules of thumb for dividing credit can be avoided
Simply measuring the chances of scoring from shots says nothing about how the
shots were created
If certain situations usually lead to high-quality shots and goals, they may be a
better basis for ratings
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Expected goal
difference was
correlated at 0.83
with final positions
Players receive
credit for advancing
the ball between
zones based on
differences in
.011 .028 .063 .141 .325
expected goals
Expected goal
difference from all
zone entries was
correlated at 0.82
with final positions
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Could assign demerits to defenders using same system as for shot-based ratings
• But zones that cover more of the field allow the rating of more players
Top 10 attackers for offensive production per minute in 2012-13: Suárez, Silva,
Cazorla, Hazard, Mata, Tévez, Agüero, Carroll, Bale, Lukaku
Top 10 fullbacks for offensive production per minute in 2012-13: Baines, Johnson,
Coleman, Rangel, Gibbs, Enrique, Azpilicueta, Walker, Evra, Zabaleta
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Can we do better?
TRACAB data from the Premier League track each player, the ball, and referees
25 times per second on a pitch with roughly 1,000,000 possible locations
These data can be synched with Opta f24 files to merge positional information and
description of events in the match
Credits for creating situations can be split between the runners, passers, decoys,
and so on in any combination; demerits for allowing them go to the defenders
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
Can we do better?
Of two 2-on-1
situations in this
game, one led to a
goal; one player (#7)
received the pass in
one and was the
runner in the other
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
In mathematics, this
ST area is called the
GK
CM kernel of a star-
shaped space
CM ST
CB
Do moves preceded
by passes into the
AM kernel of attacking
players lead to better
opportunities to
FB score?
Beyond shots – Dan Altman
• Algorithms can quickly identify players who are influential on the pitch
Even the tracking algorithm runs in a few minutes, versus watching hours of video
• The same algorithm can be used for leagues around the world with f24 data
• Individual player ratings sum to team ratings that are correlated with results
This means players who improve their ratings will also improve the team’s results;
it sets good incentives and enhances the predictability of results and finances
• Team ratings pick up information quickly on likely final positions in the table
An early read can be helpful for planning transfer spending and future finances
Thank you
Dan Altman
@NYAsoccer
#OptaProForum