Goldifo
Goldifo
Goldifo
The coin on the cover depicts AIER founder Col. E.C. Harwood (1900-1980). The one-ounce
gold coin was first minted in 1979. Many more bullion-grade Harwood coins were struck over
the years and were subscribed to by AIER’s long-time friends and supporters.
Why Gold?
In the Beginning
Imagine it’s around 3500 B.C. on the banks of the Nile River. You’re
fishing, perhaps, when you stub your toe on a particularly hard rock
embedded in the silt. You stoop to pick it up, and it gleams like something
you’ve never seen before.
You’ve discovered gold.
From that early discovery, the ancient Egyptians were drawn to gold for
the same reason many are today: It’s not only beautiful, but it’s one of the
easiest metals to work with, easily alloyed with other metals. It never rusts
or corrodes, making it ideally suited for fashioning into ornamental objects
or coins.
It’s also incredibly rare. All of the gold ever pulled out of the ground
would fit in a 65-foot cube. That includes all of the “easy” gold that came out
of California rivers and South African surface mines. Every ounce of new
gold that comes onto the market is harder and more expensive to mine than
the last.
All of these factors—durability, rarity, and physical appearance—have led
society to value gold for millennia. Because it can’t be easily counterfeited,
gold was the near-universal currency throughout the world until the modern
era, and it backed the U.S. dollar.
That changed in the wake of the Great Depression. Responding to the
work of economist John Maynard Keynes, the German, British, and U.S.
governments abandoned the explicit ties of their respective currencies to
gold. In the U.S., where fear about the economy during the Depression
caused massive gold hoarding, the private ownership of gold actually
became illegal in 1933 and remained restricted until the 1970s. This use of
gold as currency—and the confiscation of private gold in the 20th century—
underlies many investors’ attitudes toward gold to this day.
2. An inflation and currency hedge. Many investors are also drawn to gold
because there is ample evidence that over a long enough time, gold can retain
value relative to physical goods, whereas fiat currency such as the dollar rises
and falls. A common axiom is that “an ounce of gold has always bought
a man’s suit,” and there’s some truth to that. According to Casey Research
(caseyresearch.com), in the Roman Empire, an ounce of gold purchased a
toga, a belt, and a pair of sandals. With gold at $1,500 an ounce, a modern
gentleman can be attired in the style of the times. In 400 B.C., an ounce of
gold bought about 350 loaves of bread. At roughly $4 a loaf, that formula
still holds true.
Over short periods of time, however, there’s no guarantee that gold will
rise and fall with inflation. In fact, since the 1970s, the price of gold has been
far more volatile than the actual rise of consumer prices.
Similarly, when considering the value of gold in relation to other goods,
many investors look at the long-term relationship between gold and oil for
guidance.
1,000
500
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CME Group (FactSet).
30
20
10
0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.
Sources: CME Group, ICE - Intercontinental Exchange (FactSet).
Chart 2. Gold and crude oil prices also have a volatile relationship.
Any tight correlation between gold and oil broke as soon as the dollar
stopped being pegged to the price of gold in 1971. There are many periods
when gold is either “expensive” or “cheap” relative to a barrel of oil, compared
with the long-term historical average.
One thing that has held true, however, is that gold acts as a kind of
“inverse dollar” bet quite effectively. When the value of the dollar falls versus
other world currencies, the dollar price of gold goes up—that is, gold’s value
remains intact despite fluctuations in exchange rates.
300
Price of gold
U.S. dollar
200
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: Shaded area denotes recession.
Sources: CME Group, FactSet.
Chart 3. Gold prices and the dollar’s strength are inversely related.
Here, over even relatively short periods, we can see that when the dollar
strengthens, gold declines (as we saw in 2008 and 2014). When the dollar
weakens, the price of gold increases (2009, 2016). So if you’re looking for
a hedge against a rapid or persistent decline in the value of the dollar, gold
may make sense.
3. A non-correlated investment. Finally, many investors who aren’t worried
about the collapse of either the country or the economy look to gold as a
source of diversified returns in their portfolios. For this purpose, the results
are mixed. According to this theory, when stocks or other financial assets are
down, gold will be up, or at least its returns will be unpredictably correlated.
Here the jury is still out; gold can have periods of both high and highly
negative correlations with financial assets, and in fact, that correlation can
shift quite rapidly.
It’s important to recognize that as a portfolio asset, gold is very, very
different from every other asset you’re likely to own. Stocks have value
based on their assets and their future cash flows from participating in the
global economy. Bonds have value based on their credit worthiness and
their coupon payments. Commodities have value based on their worth in
industrial processes or as primary consumables like food.
Gold, on the other hand, has value because a large group of individuals,
central banks, and institutions choose to own it for one of the above reasons.
While about 10 percent to 15 percent of the gold that is mined each year is
used for industrial purposes, the vast majority is not “useful” in a traditional
sense. This means that as an investment, a decision to buy gold (in one of
the many forms discussed in this booklet) is a bet on the psychological
importance of now vs. the future.
-1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Technology
Total mine supply
40
Jewelry
0
Exchange-traded funds
-25
Source: World Gold Council, 2015.
It’s a familiar refrain for gold investors. Over the long term, the con-
strained supply is on your side. In the short term, vagaries of psychology
can create significant price swings.
This limited nature of supply makes gold highly susceptible to investor
psychology. In many countries (notably India), gold jewelry is given as a gift
not so much to wear, but for investment purposes—a sizable gold jewelry
collection is seen as an asset that can be sold in hard times. If the price is too
high or the economy is bad, jewelry demand can plummet. The same is true
of essentially all of the sources of demand other than technology.
Central banks hold an interesting position in this mix. Historically, the
world’s governments have stockpiled enormous amounts of gold.
Despite the decline of the gold standard globally, the top five gold-
holding central banks still have enormous remaining stockpiles—over
31,000 tonnes as of the end of 2015, or over 16 percent of all the above-
ground gold on the planet, with a few countries owning the majority
of that.
Gold Holdings by Central Banks
Central bank Tonnes held (metric tons)
United States 8,133.5
Germany 3,381.0
IMF 2,814.0
Italy 2,451.8
France 2,435.7
Source: World Gold Council, May 2016
Pick a Format
The most common way small investors buy physical gold is coinage.
Gold coins have been minted for thousands of years, and a modern gold
coin is different from a Roman one only in its purity and consistency. While
most people are familiar with the concept of “24-carat gold,” that jewelry
market unit is actually a very coarse way to measure purity. Twenty-four
carat gold is 99 percent pure. The next lowest grade—22-carat gold—is
about 91 percent pure.
Gold for investment is usually measured in “fineness” or parts per
thousand. So 24-carat gold would have a fineness of 990—10 parts per
thousand are some sort of alloy. Gold for investment can have a wide range
of fineness, and differences will affect the price. A 400-ounce London Good
Delivery bar used by banks has to have a minimum fineness of 995. The
popular one-ounce American Eagle gold coin produced by the U.S. Mint has
a fineness of just 916, as does the South African Krugerrand. A Canadian
Maple Leaf coin has a fineness of 999.9 parts out of 1000.
Does this make one better than the other? Not really. Each coin is minted
so that the content of pure gold is exactly one ounce. So while a Maple Leaf
weighs 31.110 grams on a scale, an American Eagle weighs 33.931 grams.
Pick a Vendor
Of course, you still need to actually acquire your coins or bars. Once
upon a time, you could go to your local bank and just buy gold. Now you
generally need to either go to a specialized coin dealer or the main branch
of a money-center bank. Increasingly, however, people take physical
delivery of gold by ordering it online. Websites such as JMBullion.com and
Kitco.com sell coins and bars and ship them right to your doorstep—
signature required, of course. Online vendors will actually ship you tens of
thousands of dollars of gold, completely insured. Like any other investment,
the purchase price will always be more than the price you get for selling gold
at the exact same moment—that’s the spread, and it’s just part of the cost of
doing business.
H O W T O O W N A N D I N V E S T I N G O L D • 11
Index, June 2, 2006=100
300
Price of gold
Price of gold miner stocks
200
100
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: Shaded area denotes recession.
Sources: CME Group, NYSE (FactSet).
Complicating matters is that mining companies have over the years tried
to limit their exposure to the price of gold by using gold futures. Gold miners
use futures much like a farmer who sees a high price for corn and decides to
“pre-sell” his crop by promising to sell next year at today’s prices. How well
gold-mining CFOs manage these hedges can make a huge difference in the
long-term profitability of any individual miner.
The track record over the past decade hasn’t been great for gold miners—a
10-year investment in bullion has yielded a 94 percent return, while a 10-
year investment in miners has lost around 37 percent.