Portfolio
Portfolio
Portfolio
1
2. Urban resilience and climate change (1149 words)
2.1. Climate change
Climate change and other environmentally related issues (climate action failure, biodiversity loss,
extreme weather, natural disasters, and human-made environmental disasters) have been
catalogued as high impact and at the same time high likelihood global risks. Also 6 of the 10 risks
with highest impact in a decade perspective are environmentally related (World Economic Forum
et al., 2023).
One of the parameters that can be used to quantify this climate change is the increase in the global
surface temperature (IPCC Working Group, 2023) This raise in temperature could lead to impacts
that suppose harmful consequences, for example the increase of probability of extreme events
(van der Wiel & Bintanja, 2021).
With the aim of facing climate change, but also natural disasters, and to increase the level of life
of people, cities have been searching for a way of becoming more resilient, specially in recent
years (Meerow et al., 2016).
2
2.3. Resilience principles
Once the concept of urban resilience has been defined, the next topic to assess are the resilience
principles which “are specific mechanisms and behaviours that make a city resilient or that help
policies and practices improve that resilience” (Wardekker, 2018, p. 1)
Resilience principles can be divided in four groups or types. The first one, foresight and
preparedness, corresponds to all the actions taken “before disturbances take place”, and contains
anticipation and foresight, preparedness and planning, and homeostasis. The second one,
adaptability, corresponds to the qualities that “quickly modify and transform the system, coevolve
with disturbances and maintain desired functions into the future” and includes flexibility and
learning. Next group is the recovery, which is the “ability to rapidly recover from disturbances
that take place, returning to desired function” and contains high flux and flatness. The last one is
absorption which is the “ability to dynamically cope with disturbances that take place” and
includes redundancy, diversity, robustness, and buffering (Wardekker et al., 2020, p. 6, table 2).
During the lecture and tutorials of Topic1: Urban Resilience and Climate Change I have learned
the concept of urban resilience and how to define it in several different ways, depending on the
subject or conditions that is held, and how it is related with climate change and other
environmental risks. I have also learned about some different resilience principles that can be
implemented in a system in order to improve its resilience to different disturbances.
Moreover, I have learned about what is resilience assessment and noticed about the existence of
frameworks and their use in the performance of this assessment. I also had the opportunity to
discuss with all the classmates some different qualities of these frameworks, which made me
realise about the differences between them.
One of the things that has shocked the most is the complexity and the size of the scope of urban
resilience subject, as it involves a lot of different fields of knowledge and can be implemented in
several subjects. This topic was new for me, and I am now really interested on it.
3
3. Modelling systems (1219 words)
In the previous section, the concepts of urban resilience and resilience principles have been
defined, and some frameworks for resilience assessment have been presented. The current section
focuses on systems and models that are used to describe them.
3.1. Systems and systems thinking
Hall and Day (1997) says that a system is any phenomenon that presents more than one separable
component and any kind of interaction between them. Voinov (2008, p. 6) defines systems as
“combination of parts that interact and produce some new quality in their interaction”.
Related with the concept of system there is the systems thinking that has a lot of different
definitions throughout the systems community (Arnold & Wade, 2015). Some examples of these
definitions are the one from Richmond (1994), the originator of systems thinking term, who
defined it as the “the art and science of making reliable inferences about behaviour by developing
an increasingly deep understanding of underlying structure” (p. 6). Another of the most used
definitions is the one provided by Senge (1990) , who defines as “a discipline for seeing wholes
and a framework for seeing interrelationships rather than things, for seeing patterns of change
rather than static snapshots” (p. 53).
Due to the necessity of having a single definition that comprises the most important components
and can be used in a broad range of situations, Arnold & Wade (2015) analysed 7 of the most
accepted definitions of systems thinking and proposed the following definition: “Systems
thinking is a set of synergistic analytic skills used to improve the capability of identifying and
understanding systems, predicting their behaviours, and devising modifications to them in order
to produce desired effects. These skills work together as a system.” (p. 675). The fidelity of the
definition was checked by a System Test.
This System Test consisted of examining the definition in a way that some elements had to be
present in the definition: the function, definition and goals, more than one element, and
interconnections between the elements
3.2. Models
To explore systems, people use models. “A model is a simplification of the reality” Voinov (2008)
which means that they are used to simplify the reality, and usually they are not as detailed as
reality. Some examples of models could be a geographic map, a set of mathematical equations,
or a conceptual map. with higher or lower level of detail. They are also personal and very sensitive
to the perspective. To explain this Voinov (2008) mentions that a model developed by a blind
person would be mainly based in sound, smell and feeling, while a person without this disability
would include visual details.
Voinov (2008) also explains that there exist several ways for classifying models, which depend
on a broad range of different criteria. These are explained below:
Classifying models for the form, it can be found three different options. A model can be
conceptual if it is only explained by verbal descriptions, but also can be complemented by simple
drawings. They can also be physical, if they consist of a reconstruction in a smaller scale of a
given object. Finally, can be formal or mathematical, if the behaviour of physical objects or
processes are explained through equations and formulas.
Regarding the temporal scale, Voinov (2008) distinguishes different situations. Models can be
static if they do not vary in time, or dynamic if its components or interrelationships vary over
time. They can also be continuous if the variations are constant, or discrete if the model varies in
4
finite steps. Finally, the last distinction is based on if the next step in time can be described by the
current state and some transfer functions (deterministic), or if there exist more than one possible
future states (stochastic).
The spatial perspective is also a differential factor when classifying models (Voinov, 2008). They
can be local if they consider that everything is homogeneous in space or spatial if they study
spatial variabilities.
Considering the structural dimension, Voinov (2008) classifies models in empirical, in which
inputs and outputs are linked in terms of a mathematical formula or physical device, and process-
based, which can be understood as a combination of different empirical processes. They can also
be differentiated between simple or complex, depending on the level of detail that it is expected.
3.3. Modelling process
Building a model is an “iterative process” (Voinov, 2008, p. 16), which means that steps may be
repeated until reaching to a desired and coherent result. The steps of the modelling process are
explained below.
The first thing to do at the start of a modelling process is to set the goals and objectives of the
process. This also includes defining the people who will be involved in the process and to whom
are the results going to be presented.
Next step consists of defining a conceptual model. To do so, it is needed to look for information
that was previously gathered or related with similar studied. Then, the model must be classified
in space, time and structural dimensions, as it has been explained before. This conceptual model
might be finished when the present boundaries, variables, and parameters have been identified
and explained. Then, the interconnections and relationships stated in the conceptual model might
be described using formulas and equations, formalizing the model and, consequently, creating a
mathematical model.
Finally, the model must be checked, by comparing it to the real available data, doing the required
changes. This process is called calibration. A sensitivity analysis is also performed, to identify
which of the parameters have the largest effect on the system. Then the verification and validation
steps must be passed to finally use the model.
3.4. Participatory modelling
Participatory modelling is “a purposeful learning process for action that engages the implicit and
explicit knowledge of stakeholders to create formalized and shared representation(s) of reality”
(AcademiaThemes, 2018). In other words, is the realization of the modelling process but
incorporating the stakeholders and interested parties.
This practice allows the addition of local knowledge to the scientific one, developing practices
like co-learning and co-understanding, and helps to create more useful models as the needs of
stakeholders are known. It is also very useful to avoid conflicts between parties as they all
participate in its creation and decisions are taken after deliberation and consensus.
3.5. Reflection (172 words)
From this topic regarding systems and models, I have learned the steps that need to be followed
to properly develop a model, specially in the tutorial, where I could furtherly understand how
models can be used, and in the assignment, in which, with my colleagues, I could define a model
of the city of Rotterdam. The guest lecture helped me to see a more realistic and professional
application of models, which make me realise about the magnitude of the potential that they have.
5
It also, taught me about the current importance that the resilience to climate change has in the
government of the Netherlands.
A think that was really an eye-opener is the level of complexity that can be reached with some
models, as they can go from very simple as a small handwritten sketch in a piece of paper, to all
elements in a city or a country. I think that after studying about this topic, I have a more critical
opinion about some of the tools used in resilience assessment.
This section discusses urban disaster risk management, another crucial pilar in urban resilience
assessment.
Disaster risk management cannot be understood without knowing what a disaster is. A disaster is
“a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society at any scale due to hazardous
events interacting with conditions of exposure, vulnerability and capacity, leading to one or more
of the following: human, material, economic and environmental losses and impacts” (UNDRR,
2015).
It must be highlighted that a disaster does not happen if it does not exist a hazard, some kind of
exposure to this hazard, and that the person that is exposed is vulnerable to it. This is important
as people usually talk about “natural disasters” when they want to refer to natural hazards. For
example, a hurricane itself is a natural hazard. I not until it reaches to expose a large number of
vulnerable people that it becomes a disaster (Vink, 2014).
As it has been stated before, in addition with the presence of a hazard, some given vulnerability
conditions need to be present. Vulnerability can be understood as “the conditions determined by
physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the
susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to the impacts of hazards”
(UNDRR, 2015).
Wisner et al. (2003), with other topics related to disaster risk reduction and hazards, studied the
characteristics that are present in vulnerable people. These are less physically or mentally capable,
like children, elders, or people with disabilities; they can also present less material or financial
resources, for example, homeless or low-income population; they can also have less knowledge
or experience, such as children or foreigners; and they can be in situations in which they have a
restriction, for example, taking care of a child or a pet.
4.2. Disaster Risk Management
Once some concepts have been described in the previous section, now it is the turn of the
explanation of disaster risk management. This consists of the “processes for designing,
implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, and measures to improve the understanding of
disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous improvement in
disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices, all with the explicit purpose of increasing
human security, well-being, quality of life, and sustainable development” (World Bank Group,
2021).
Disaster risk management can be described in four phases: prevention, preparation, response and
recovery (European Comission, 2012). These four phases conform a cycle, commonly called
Disaster Risk Management Cycle.
6
The prevention phase is related to the measures that are applied in order to reduce or mitigate
damage from disasters. Some examples of measures taken in the prevention phase are the
construction of dams or land use regulations. Preparation phase includes the measures that are
taken for the anticipation of damage from disasters that cannot be avoided. Designing hazard
maps or investing in education are good examples of measures that can be taken in this phase.
Regarding the response phase, which comprises the actions taken as an emergency response just
before or after an imminent disaster, closure of levee breaches or evacuation of the affected zones
are good examples. Finally, the recovery period, which embraces the measures taken after the
disaster event, with the aim of recovering the normal behaviour and daily activities. An example
of these measures could be the reconstruction of residential building but taking improvements in
the resilience against the given type of hazard (Vink, 2014).
Sometimes, the measures adopted in the prevention or preparation fare are not enough to avoid
disasters. Is for this reason that, when an imminent hazard reaches people, evacuation must be
performed. This measure is always the last option as it usually involves leaving the places where
people live, and they may be destroyed by the hazard. In other words, evacuation is a drastic way
of reducing exposure to a hazard and, consequently, avoiding a disaster, and requires preparation
both from the government and the society in general (Alexander, 2002). All the decisions
regarding the risk assessment but also how will the situation be managed in case of an emergency
are usually taken by governments, and it is called emergency management.
4.4. Building community resilience
Another important thing that must be searched is the resilience of people. Regarding this, Lerch
(2015) studied about how to develop community resilience and found six foundations about it.
The first one is the people itself, as the members of the community are the responsible to build
resilience. Their most important qualities are the identity, as the basic functions and structure that
is expected to maintain or improve, and the effectiveness, which could be raised involving the
primary stakeholder (in the case of a community, people) in the decision making.
The second foundation stated by Lerch (2015) is the systems thinking, which has been discussed
in the section 3.1 of this document. The third foundation is the adaptability, as the capacity to
change to withstand against a disruption, which is a particularly important quality of resilient
systems. The fourth, is the transformability and is very related with the previous one, but with the
difference that to face the disruption, it is not enough to simply adapt, but a more drastic or fast
transformation is needed. The fifth foundation is the sustainability in a way that community
resilience is useful now and for people, but also does not compromise the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs or the natural ecosystem, as “the essential aspiration of
sustainability is for human civilization to persist on this planet indefinitely” (Lerch, 2015, p. 25).
The sixth and last foundation is courage, as an essential need that people need as individuals and
as a community to face the challenges that will present to us.
4.5. Reflections (177 words)
Studying the topic of urban disaster risk management has been useful for me because I have
realised about the different of hazards and disasters and how can they be managed in other to
protect people. In the lectors, I could also see and analyse several different examples in the real
life, which is a think that I appreciate a lot when being taught about a topic.
The guest lectures were also remarkably interesting, specially the one about vulnerabilities and
disaster risk assessment in the Netherlands. It was fascinating to learn how disaster risk
management is treated in the country. The other one, which was about different measures taken
7
in Pakistan for the adaptation of climate change was also interesting because it gave me the
perspective of a different county.
Additionally, thanks to the tutorial and the assignment I could increase my knowledge by learning
how to use a pressure and release model and used it to assess the vulnerability of people in the
city of Rotterdam, which is very related with one of my initial learning objectives.
c) To be able to define two or more different indicators which are used for assessing
the vulnerability of systems to different hazards and being able to use them for the
assessment of the vulnerability of an urban system or area to potential disasters.
This third objective (c) consists of two parts. The first one, that is is based on defining different
indicators for vulnerability assessment, has not been accomplished at all. This is because,
although in “Topic 4: Urban Disaster Risk Management” we have studied different examples of
vulnerability assessment and the characteristics of vulnerable people, we have not studied specific
indicators for systems. In addition, in the research that I performed, I have not found anything
related to them. There is the possibility that specific indicators that allow to determine the
vulnerability of a system does not exist. In all the cases, this needs a future further investigation
for my part.
Regarding the second part of the objective, although I have been taught about different ways to
assess vulnerability, such as the use of a pressure and release model, as the first part of the
8
objective could not have been accomplished, the same happens to this part This makes me wonder
if the objective is possible to accomplish, or maybe it is only incorrectly formulated.
d) To write a portfolio expressing the knowledge that I have obtained during the Urban
Resilience course, in a way that it is understandable, coherent, and structured,
following all the tips and requirements stated in Canvas. This includes referencing
in the proper way all the used sources of information in APA style.
The last objective is probably one of the most obvious because one of the requirements to pass
the subject is to hand in a portfolio but, personally, I think that it may be the most difficult to
accomplish. I say this because, during all my studying period, I have written numerous reports,
but this portfolio supposes a next-level challenge, specially because of the level of the academic
writing required and the referencing part. This last part has been the one which I tried to do my
best, because I was new for me, and I wanted to have it in the best way possible.
For sure that the people that are more appropriated to say if this objective has been accomplished
are the correctors of this portfolio, but I learned a lot in the academic writing and reference topics,
I think that I handed in a good quality portfolio, and I enjoyed the process of writing it so, I can
say that the last objective has been accomplished.
If all happens as I expect, I will work as a civil engineer in the near future. From this subject, I
think that I have learned valuable things, which could be applied in my future work domain. Some
examples of them are explained below.
One of the most important thinks that I learned from this course is the importance that resilience
against different natural hazards has in all the components of a system. More specifically, for the
civil engineering domain, resilience must be present in all the phases of a design and construction
project.
I could also have learned about how structures are interconnected, which has a direct use in the
design or use of, for example transport networks or critical infrastructure. In addition, I think that
the topic about systems, specially the part of modelling, can be very useful in order to assess
systems like cities or neighbourhoods. This could allow me to know what kind of relationships
have the components of a system, and to know the possible consequences of making changes to
one of them.
The topic about vulnerability assessment is also very related to civil engineering in a way that, to
study which measures to implement in a city or region, it is important to previously assess the
vulnerability of this given system to find which are the components that are more urgent or
important to improve their resilience. I this that risk assessment methods like the pressure and
release model are very helpful to do so.
Also, the guest lectures and city centre of Enschede trip, allowed me to study what is the current
state and importance of urban resilience in climate change in the current world, also to see
different examples of measure that have been applied. I think that these activities are very useful
in order to develop my critical thinking and creativity, and to see the pros and he cons of a broad
range of different measure that can be applied.
Finally, the part of doing the assignments and writing reports and the portfolio, will also be very
helpful, because as a civil engineer I will probable have to write several reports and it has been
very interesting to improve my writing and referencing skills.
9
5.3. Relevance for society
Indirectly, all the mentioned things that I have learned in the previous section, are not only useful
in the Civil Engineering domain, but also are relevant for the society in general. This is because
society is the one who would take benefit of the improvement in Civil Engineering, as structures,
cities and the lifestyles of people will be more resilient. In other words, in the end, people take
benefit of the advantages of living in a resilience city.
An example of these advantages could be the mitigation of natural disasters, and, consequently
health system and economic problems that these disasters could cause.
Finally, after doing some research about urban resilience in a changing climate, there are still
some things remaining which I could not have found an answer.
The most important one of them is the fact of not finding examples of indicators to assess the
vulnerability of a system. As it has been explained in the section of the objectives, this could be
lead because of the non-existence of this kind of indicators or because I could not be able to find
the proper sources. In all the cases, is a topic in which I will perform more research.
6. References
11
Wardekker, A., Wilk, B., Brown, V., Uittenbroek, C., Mees, H., Driessen, P., Wassen, M.,
Molenaar, A., Walda, J., & Runhaar, H. (2020). A diagnostic tool for supporting
policymaking on urban resilience. Cities, 101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102691
Wisner, B., Nivaran, D., Cannon, T., & Davis, I. (2003). At Risk: natural hazards, people’s
vulnerability and disasters Second edition 2003. Routledge.
World Bank Group. (2021). Economics for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness SUMMARY
REPORT Investment in Disaster Risk Management in Europe Makes Economic Sense.
www.worldbank.org
World Economic Forum., Marsh & McLennan., & Zurich Insurance Group. (2023). The global
risks report 2023. World Economic Forum.
12