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vi Contents
3.8 Research Study: Controlling for Student Background

in the Assessment of Teaching 119
3. 9 R Instructions 124
3.10 Summary and Key Formulas 124
3.11 Exercises 125
CHAPTER 4 Probability and Probability Distributions 149

4.1 Introduction and Abstract of Research Study 149
4.2 Finding the Probability of an Event 153
4.3 Basic Event Relations and Probability Laws 155
4.4 Conditional Probability and Independence 158
4.5 Bayes’ Formula 161
4.6 Variables: Discrete and Continuous 164
4.7 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables 166
4.8 Two Discrete Random Variables: The Binomial and the Poisson 167
4.9 Probability Distributions for Continuous Random Variables 177
4.10 A Continuous Probability Distribution: The Normal Distribution 180
4.11 Random Sampling 187
4.12 Sampling Distributions 190
4.13 Normal Approximation to the Binomial 200
4.14 Evaluating Whether or Not a Population Distribution Is Normal 203
4.15 Research Study: Inferences About Performance-Enhancing Drugs
Among Athletes 208
4.16 R Instructions 211
4.18 Exercises 214
PART 4 nalyzing THE Data, Interpreting the

A
Analyses, and Communicating THE Results 231
CHAPTER 5 Inferences About Population Central Values 232

5.2 Estimation of m 235
5.3 Choosing the Sample Size for Estimating m 240
5.4 A Statistical Test for m 242
5.5 Choosing the Sample Size for Testing m 255
5.6 The Level of Significance of a Statistical Test 257
5.7 Inferences About m for a Normal Population, s Unknown 260
5.8 Inferences About m When the Population Is Nonnormal and n Is Small:
Bootstrap Methods 269
5.9 Inferences About the Median 275
5.10 Research Study: Percentage of Calories from Fat 280
5.12 Exercises 285
CHAPTER 6 Inferences Comparing Two Population Central

Values 300
6.2 Inferences About m1 2 m2: Independent Samples 303
Copyright 2016 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Contents vii
6.3 A Nonparametric Alternative:

The Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 315
6.4 Inferences About m1 2 m2: Paired Data 325
6.5 A Nonparametric Alternative:
The Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test 329
6.6 Choosing Sample Sizes for Inferences About m1 2 m2 334
6.7 Research Study: Effects of an Oil Spill on Plant Growth 336
6.9 Exercises 344
CHAPTER 7 Inferences About Population Variances 366

7.2 Estimation and Tests for a Population Variance 368
7.3 Estimation and Tests for Comparing Two Population Variances 376
7.4 Tests for Comparing t . 2 Population Variances 382
7.5 Research Study: Evaluation of Methods for Detecting E. coli 385
7.7 Exercises 391
CHAPTER 8 Inferences About More Than Two Population Central

Values 400
8.2 A Statistical Test About More Than Two Population Means:
An Analysis of Variance 403
8.3 The Model for Observations in a Completely Randomized Design 412
8.4 Checking on the AOV Conditions 414
8.5 An Alternative Analysis: Transformations of the Data 418
8.6 A Nonparametric Alternative: The Kruskal–Wallis Test 425
8.7 Research Study: Effect of Timing on the Treatment
of Port-Wine Stains with Lasers 428
8.9 Exercises 435
CHAPTER 9 Multiple Comparisons 445

9.2 Linear Contrasts 447
9.3 Which Error Rate Is Controlled? 454
9.4 Scheffé’s S Method 456
9.5 Tukey’s W Procedure 458
9.6 Dunnett’s Procedure: Comparison of Treatments to a Control 462
9.7 A Nonparametric Multiple-Comparison Procedure 464
9.8 Research Study: Are Interviewers’ Decisions Affected by Different
Handicap Types? 467
9.10 Exercises 475
viii Contents
CHAPTER 10 Categorical Data 482

10.2 Inferences About a Population Proportion p 483
10.3 Inferences About the Difference Between
Two Population Proportions, p1 2 p2 491
10.4 Inferences About Several Proportions:
Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test 501
10.5 Contingency Tables: Tests for Independence
and Homogeneity 508
10.6 Measuring Strength of Relation 515
10.7 Odds and Odds Ratios 517
10.8 Combining Sets of 2 3 2 Contingency Tables 522
10.9 Research Study: Does Gender Bias Exist in the Selection of Students
for Vocational Education? 525
10.11 Exercises 533
CHAPTER 11 Linear Regression and Correlation 555

11.2 Estimating Model Parameters 564
11.3 Inferences About Regression Parameters 574
11.4 Predicting New y-Values Using Regression 577
11.5 Examining Lack of Fit in Linear Regression 581
11.6 Correlation 587
11.7 Research Study: Two Methods for Detecting E. coli 598
11.9 Exercises 604
CHAPTER 12 Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model 625

12.2 The General Linear Model 635
12.3 Estimating Multiple Regression Coefficients 636
12.4 Inferences in Multiple Regression 644
12.5 Testing a Subset of Regression Coefficients 652
12.6 Forecasting Using Multiple Regression 656
12.7 Comparing the Slopes of Several Regression Lines 658
12.8 Logistic Regression 662
12.9 Some Multiple Regression Theory (Optional) 669
12.10 Research Study: Evaluation of the Performance of an Electric Drill 676
12.12 Exercises 685
CHAPTER 13 Further Regression Topics 711

13.2 Selecting the Variables (Step 1) 712
13.3 Formulating the Model (Step 2) 729
13.4 Checking Model Assumptions (Step 3) 745
Contents ix
13.5 Research Study: Construction Costs for Nuclear Power Plants 765
13.7 Exercises 773
CHAPTER 14 Analysis of Variance for Completely

Randomized Designs 798
14.2 Completely Randomized Design with a Single Factor 800
14.3 Factorial Treatment Structure 805
14.4 Factorial Treatment Structures with an Unequal Number
of Replications 830
14.5 Estimation of Treatment Differences and Comparisons
of Treatment Means 837
14.6 Determining the Number of Replications 841
14.7 Research Study: Development of a Low-Fat Processed Meat 846
14.9 Exercises 852
CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance for Blocked Designs 865

15.2 Randomized Complete Block Design 866
15.3 Latin Square Design 878
15.4 Factorial Treatment Structure in a Randomized Complete
Block Design 889
15.5 A Nonparametric Alternative—Friedman’s Test 893
15.6 Research Study: Control of Leatherjackets 897
15.8 Exercises 904
CHAPTER 16 The Analysis of Covariance 917

16.2 A Completely Randomized Design with One Covariate 920
16.3 The Extrapolation Problem 931
16.4 Multiple Covariates and More Complicated Designs 934
16.5 Research Study: Evaluation of Cool-Season Grasses for Putting
Greens 936
16.6 Summary 942
16.7 Exercises 942
CHAPTER 17 Analysis of Variance for Some Fixed-, Random-,

and Mixed-Effects Models 952
17.2 A One-Factor Experiment with Random Treatment Effects 955
17.3 Extensions of Random-Effects Models 959
17.4 Mixed-Effects Models 967
17.5 Rules for Obtaining Expected Mean Squares 971
x Contents
17.6 Nested Factors 981

17.7 Research Study: Factors Affecting Pressure Drops
Across Expansion Joints 986
17.8 Summary 991
17.9 Exercises 992
CHAPTER 18 Split-Plot, Repeated Measures,

and Crossover Designs 1004
18.2 Split-Plot Designed Experiments 1008
18.3 Single-Factor Experiments with Repeated Measures 1014
18.4 Two-Factor Experiments with Repeated Measures on
One of the Factors 1018
18.5 Crossover Designs 1025
18.6 Research Study: Effects of an Oil Spill on Plant Growth 1033
18.7 Summary 1035
18.8 Exercises 1035
CHAPTER 19 Analysis of Variance for Some Unbalanced

Designs 1050
19.2 A Randomized Block Design with One or More
Missing Observations 1052
19.3 A Latin Square Design with Missing Data 1058
19.4 Balanced Incomplete Block (BIB) Designs 1063
19.5 Research Study: Evaluation of the Consistency
of Property Assessors 1070
19.7 Exercises 1075
Appendix: Statistical Tables 1085

Answers to Selected Exercises 1125
References 1151
Index 1157
PREFACE
INDEX
Intended Audience
An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data Analysis, Seventh Edition, provides
a broad overview of statistical methods for advanced undergraduate and graduate
students from a variety of disciplines. This book is intended to prepare students to
solve problems encountered in research projects, to make decisions based on data
in general settings both within and beyond the university setting, and finally to
become critical readers of statistical analyses in research papers and in news reports.
The book presumes that the students have a minimal mathematical background
(high school algebra) and no prior course work in statistics. The first 11 chapters
of the textbook present the material typically covered in an introductory statistics
course. However, this book provides research studies and examples that connect
the statistical concepts to data analysis problems that are often encountered in
undergraduate capstone courses. The remaining chapters of the book cover regres-
sion modeling and design of experiments. We develop and illustrate the statistical
techniques and thought processes needed to design a research study or experiment
and then analyze the data collected using an intuitive and proven four-step approach.
This should be especially helpful to graduate students conducting their MS thesis
and PhD dissertation research.
Major Features of Textbook

Learning from Data
In this text, we approach the study of statistics by considering a four-step process
by which we can learn from data:
1. Defining the Problem
2. Collecting the Data
3. Summarizing the Data
4. Analyzing the Data, Interpreting the Analyses, and Communicating
the Results
Case Studies
In order to demonstrate the relevance and critical nature of statistics in solving real-
world problems, we introduce the major topic of each chapter using a case study.
The case studies were selected from many sources to illustrate the broad applica-
bility of statistical methodology. The four-step learning from data process is illus-
trated through the case studies. This approach will hopefully assist in overcoming
xi
xii Preface
the natural initial perception held by many people that statistics is just another
“math course.’’ The introduction of major topics through the use of case studies
provides a focus on the central nature of applied statistics in a wide variety of
research and business-related studies. These case studies will hopefully provide the
reader with an enthusiasm for the broad applicability of statistics and the statistical
thought process that the authors have found and used through their many years
of teaching, consulting, and R & D management. The following research studies
illustrate the types of studies we have used throughout the text.
●● Exit Polls Versus Election Results: A study of why the exit polls
from 9 of 11 states in the 2004 presidential election predicted John
Kerry as the winner when in fact President Bush won 6 of the 11
states.
●● Evaluation of the Consistency of Property Assessors: A study to
determine if county property assessors differ systematically in their
determination of property values.
●● Effect of Timing of the Treatment of Port-Wine Stains with Lasers:
A prospective study that investigated whether treatment at a younger
age would yield better results than treatment at an older age.
●● Controlling for Student Background in the Assessment of Teaching:
An examination of data used to support possible improvements to
the No Child Left Behind program while maintaining the important
concepts of performance standards and accountability.
Each of the research studies includes a discussion of the whys and hows of the
study. We illustrate the use of the four-step learning from data process with each
case study. A discussion of sample size determination, graphical displays of the
data, and a summary of the necessary ingredients for a complete report of the sta-
tistical findings of the study are provided with many of the case studies.
Examples and Exercises

We have further enhanced the practical nature of statistics by using examples and
exercises from journal articles, newspapers, and the authors’ many consulting
experiences. These will provide the students with further evidence of the practical
usages of statistics in solving problems that are relevant to their everyday lives.
Many new exercises and examples have been included in this edition of the book.
The number and variety of exercises will be a great asset to both the instructor and
students in their study of statistics.
Topics Covered
This book can be used for either a one-semester or a two-semester course. Chapters
1 through 11 would constitute a one-semester course. The topics covered would
include
Chapter 1—Statistics and the scientific method
Chapter 2—Using surveys and experimental studies to gather data
Chapters 3 & 4—Summarizing data and probability distributions
Chapters 5–7—Analyzing data: inferences about central values and
variances
Chapters 8 & 9—One-way analysis of variance and multiple
comparisons
Preface xiii
Chapter 10—Analyzing data involving proportions

Chapter 11—Linear regression and correlation
The second semester of a two-semester course would then include model building
and inferences in multiple regression analysis, logistic regression, design of experi-
ments, and analysis of variance:
Chapters 11–13—Regression methods and model building: multiple re-
gression and the general linear model, logistic regression, and building
regression models with diagnostics
Chapters 14–19—Design of experiments and analysis of variance: design
concepts, analysis of variance for standard designs, analysis of covari-
ance, random and mixed effects models, split-plot designs, repeated
measures designs, crossover designs, and unbalanced designs
Emphasis on Interpretation, not Computation

In the book are examples and exercises that allow the student to study how to
calculate the value of statistical estimators and test statistics using the definitional
form of the procedure. After the student becomes comfortable with the aspects of
the data the statistical procedure is reflecting, we then emphasize the use of com-
puter software in making computations in the analysis of larger data sets. We provide
output from three major statistical packages: SAS, Minitab, and SPSS. We find that
this approach provides the student with the experience of computing the value of the
procedure using the definition; hence, the student learns the basics b ehind each pro-
cedure. In most situations beyond the statistics course, the student should be using
computer software in making the computations for both e xpedience and quality of
calculation. In many exercises and examples, the use of the computer allows for more
time to emphasize the interpretation of the results of the computations without hav-
ing to expend enormous amounts of time and effort in the actual computations.
In numerous examples and exercises, the importance of the following aspects
of hypothesis testing are demonstrated:
1. The statement of the research hypothesis through the summarization
of the researcher’s goals into a statement about population
parameters.
2. The selection of the most appropriate test statistic, including sample
size computations for many procedures.
3. The necessity of considering both Type I and Type II error
rates (a and b) when discussing the results of a statistical test of
hypotheses.
4. The importance of considering both the statistical significance and
the practical significance of a test result. Thus, we illustrate the
importance of estimating effect sizes and the construction of confi-
dence intervals for population parameters.
5. The statement of the results of the statistical test in nonstatistical
jargon that goes beyond the statement ‘‘reject H0’’ or ‘‘fail to
reject H0.’’
New to the Seventh Edition

●● There are instructions on the use of R code. R is a free software package
that can be downloaded from http:/ /lib.stat.cmu.edu/R/CRAN.
xiv Preface
Click your choice of platform (Linux, MacOS X, or Windows) for the

precompiled binary distribution. Note the FAQs link to the left for
additional information. Follow the instructions for installing the base
system software (which is all you will need).
●● New examples illustrate the breadth of applications of statistics to
real-world problems.
●● An alternative to the standard deviation, MAD, is provided as a
measure of dispersion in a population/sample.
●● The use of bootstrapping in obtaining confidence intervals and
p-values is discussed.
●● Instructions are included on how to use R code to obtain percentiles
and probabilities from the following distributions: normal, binomial,
Poisson, chi-squared, F, and t.
●● A nonparametric alternative to the Pearson correlation coefficient:
Spearman’s rank correlation, is provided.
●● The binomial test for small sample tests of proportions is presented.
●● The McNemar test for paired count data has been added.
●● The Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion
for variable selection are discussed.
Additional Features Retained from Previous Editions

●● Many practical applications of statistical methods and data analysis
from agriculture, business, economics, education, engineering, medi-
cine, law, political science, psychology, environmental studies, and
sociology have been included.
●● The seventh edition contains over 1,000 exercises, with nearly 400 of
the exercises new.
●● Computer output from Minitab, SAS, and SPSS is provided in
numerous examples. The use of computers greatly facilitates the use
of more sophisticated graphical illustrations of statistical results.
●● Attention is paid to the underlying assumptions. Graphical
procedures and test procedures are provided to determine if assump-
tions have been violated. Furthermore, in many settings, we provide
alternative procedures when the conditions are not met.
●● The first chapter provides a discussion of “What Is Statistics?” We
provide a discussion of why students should study statistics along with
a discussion of several major studies that illustrate the use of statistics
in the solution of real-life problems.
Ancillaries
l Student Solutions Manual (ISBN-10: 1-305-26948-9;
ISBN-13: 978-1-305-26948-4), containing select worked solutions
for problems in the textbook.
l A Companion Website at www.cengage.com/statistics/ott, containing
downloadable data sets for Excel, Minitab, SAS, SPSS, and others,
plus additional resources for students and faculty.
Preface xv
Acknowledgments
There are many people who have made valuable, constructive suggestions for
the development of the original manuscript and during the preparation of the
subsequent editions. We are very appreciative of the insightful and constructive
comments from the following reviewers:
Naveen Bansal, Marquette University
Kameryn Denaro, San Diego State University
Mary Gray, American University
Craig Leth-Steensen, Carleton University
Jing Qian, University of Massachusetts
Mark Riggs, Abilene Christian University
Elaine Spiller, Marquette University
We are also appreciate of the preparation assistance received from Molly Taylor
and Jay Campbell; the scheduling of the revisions by Mary Tindle, the Senior
Project Manager at Cenveo Publisher Services, who made sure that the book
was completed in a timely manner. The authors of the solutions manual, Soma
Roy, California Polytechnic State University, and John Draper, The Ohio State
University, provided me with excellent input which resulted in an improved set of
exercises for the seventh edition. The person who assisted me the greatest degree
in the preparation of the seventh edition, was Sherry Goldbecker, the copy editor.
Sherry not only corrected my many grammatical errors but also provided rephras-
ing of many sentences which made for a more straight forward explanation of sta-
tistical concepts. The students, who use this book in their statistics classes, will be
most appreciative of Sherry’s many contributions.
PART 1
Introduction
Chapter 1 St atistic s a nd the Sc ientific Method
1.1 Introduction
CHAPTER 1 1.2
1.3
Why Study Statistics?
Some Current
Applications of Statistics
1.4 A Note to the Student
Statistics and
1.5 Summary
1.6 Exercises
the Scientific
Method
1.1 Introduction
Statistics is the science of designing studies or experiments, collecting data, and
modeling/analyzing data for the purpose of decision making and scientific discov-
ery when the available information is both limited and variable. That is, statistics is
the science of Learning from Data.
Almost everyone, including social scientists, medical researchers, superin-
tendents of public schools, corporate executives, market researchers, engineers,
government employees, and consumers, deals with data. These data could be in the
form of quarterly sales figures, percent increase in juvenile crime, contamination
levels in water samples, survival rates for patients undergoing medical therapy,
census figures, or information that helps determine which brand of car to purchase.
In this text, we approach the study of statistics by considering the four-step process
in Learning from Data: (1) defining the problem, (2) collecting the data, (3) sum-
marizing the data, and (4) analyzing the data, interpreting the analyses, and com-
municating the results. Through the use of these four steps in Learning from Data,
our study of statistics closely parallels the Scientific Method, which is a set of prin-
ciples and procedures used by successful scientists in their p ursuit of knowledge.
The method involves the formulation of research goals, the design of observational
studies and/or experiments, the collection of data, the modeling/analysis of the
data in the context of research goals, and the testing of hypotheses. The conclusion
of these steps is often the formulation of new research goals for a nother study.
These steps are illustrated in the schematic given in Figure 1.1.
This book is divided into sections corresponding to the four-step process in
Learning from Data. The relationship among these steps and the chapters of the
book is shown in Table 1.1. As you can see from this table, much time is spent dis-
cussing how to analyze data using the basic methods presented in Chapters 5–19.
1.1 Introduction 3
FIGURE 1.1
Scientific Method
Formulate research goal:
Schematic
research hypotheses, models
Formulate new
Make decisions:
research goals:
written conclusions,
new models,
oral presentations
new hypotheses
Design study: Draw inferences:

sample size, variables, Collect data: graphs, estimation,
experimental units, data management hypotheses testing,
sampling mechanism model assessment
TABLE 1.1
Organization of the text The Four-Step Process Chapters
1 Defining the Problem 1 Statistics and the Scientific Method

2 Collecting the Data 2 Using Surveys and Experimental Studies to Gather Data
3 Summarizing the Data 3 Data Description
4 Probability and Probability Distributions
4 Analyzing the Data, 5 Inferences about Population Central Values
Interpreting the Analyses, 6 Inferences Comparing Two Population Central Values
and Communicating 7 Inferences about Population Variances
the Results 8 Inferences about More Than Two Population Central Values
9 Multiple Comparisons
10 Categorical Data
11 Linear Regression and Correlation
12 Multiple Regression and the General Linear Model
13 Further Regression Topics
14 Analysis of Variance for Completely Randomized Designs
15 Analysis of Variance for Blocked Designs
16 The Analysis of Covariance
17 Analysis of Variance for Some Fixed-, Random-, and
Mixed-Effects Models
18 Split-Plot, Repeated Measures, and Crossover Designs
19 Analysis of Variance for Some Unbalanced Designs
However, you must remember that for each data set requiring analysis, someone
has defined the problem to be examined (Step 1), developed a plan for collecting
data to address the problem (Step 2), and summarized the data and prepared the
data for analysis (Step 3). Then following the analysis of the data, the results of the
analysis must be interpreted and communicated either verbally or in written form
to the intended audience (Step 4).
All four steps are important in Learning from Data; in fact, unless the prob-
lem to be addressed is clearly defined and the data collection carried out properly,
the interpretation of the results of the analyses may convey misleading informa-
tion because the analyses were based on a data set that did not address the problem
or that was incomplete and contained improper information. Throughout the text,
4 Chapter 1 Statistics and the Scientific Method
we will try to keep you focused on the bigger picture of Learning from Data
through the four-step process. Most chapters will end with a summary section
that emphasizes how the material of the chapter fits into the study of statistics—
Learning from Data.
To illustrate some of the above concepts, we will consider four situations
in which the four steps in Learning from Data could assist in solving a real-world
problem.
1. Problem: Inspection of ground beef in a large beef-processing facility.

A beef-processing plant produces approximately half a million pack-
ages of ground beef per week. The government inspects packages
for possible improper labeling of the packages with respect to the
percent fat in the meat. The inspectors must open the ground beef
package in order to determine the fat content of the ground beef.
The inspection of every package would be prohibitively costly and
time consuming. An alternative approach is to select 250 packages
for inspection from the daily production of 100,000 packages. The
fraction of packages with improper labeling in the sample of 250
packages would then be used to estimate the fraction of packages
improperly labeled in the complete day’s production. If this fraction
exceeds a set specification, action is then taken against the meat
processor. In later chapters, a procedure will be formulated to deter-
mine how well the sample fraction of improperly labeled packages
approximates the fraction of improperly labeled packages for the
whole day’s output.
2. Problem: Is there a relationship between quitting smoking and
gaining weight? To investigate the claim that people who quit
smoking often experience a subsequent weight gain, researchers
selected a random sample of 400 participants who had successfully
participated in programs to quit smoking. The individuals were
weighed at the beginning of the program and again 1 year later.
The average change in weight of the participants was an increase of
5 pounds. The investigators concluded that there was evidence that
the claim was valid. We will develop techniques in later chapters to
assess when changes are truly significant changes and not changes
due to random chance.
3. Problem: What effect does nitrogen fertilizer have on wheat production?
For a study of the effects of nitrogen fertilizer on wheat production,
a total of 15 fields was available to the researcher. She randomly
assigned three fields to each of the five nitrogen rates under inves-
tigation. The same variety of wheat was planted in all 15 fields. The
fields were cultivated in the same manner until harvest, and the
number of pounds of wheat per acre was then recorded for each of
the 15 fields. The experimenter wanted to determine the optimal
level of nitrogen to apply to any wheat field, but, of course, she was
limited to running experiments on a limited number of fields. After
determining the amount of nitrogen that yielded the largest produc-
tion of wheat in the study fields, the experimenter then concluded
that similar results would hold for wheat fields possessing charac-
teristics somewhat the same as the study fields. Is the experimenter
justified in reaching this conclusion?
1.1 Introduction 5
4. Problem: Determining public opinion toward a question, issue,

product, or candidate. Similar applications of statistics are brought
to mind by the frequent use of the New York Times/CBS News,
Washington Post/ABC News, Wall Street Journal/NBC News, Harris,
Gallup/Newsweek, and CNN/Time polls. How can these pollsters
determine the opinions of more than 195 million Americans who are
of voting age? They certainly do not contact every potential voter in
the United States. Rather, they sample the opinions of a small num-
ber of potential voters, perhaps as few as 1,500, to estimate the reac-
tion of every person of voting age in the country. The amazing result
of this process is that if the selection of the voters is done in an unbi-
ased way and voters are asked unambiguous, nonleading questions,
the fraction of those persons contacted who hold a particular opinion
will closely match the fraction in the total population holding that
opinion at a particular time. We will supply convincing supportive
evidence of this assertion in subsequent chapters.
These problems illustrate the four-step process in Learning from Data.

First, there was a problem or question to be addressed. Next, for each prob-
lem a study or experiment was proposed to collect meaningful data to solve the
problem. The government meat inspection agency had to decide both how many
packages to inspect per day and how to select the sample of packages from the
total daily output in order to obtain a valid prediction. The polling groups had to
decide how many voters to sample and how to select these individuals in order
to obtain information that is representative of the population of all voters. Simi-
larly, it was necessary to carefully plan how many participants in the weight-gain
study were needed and how they were to be selected from the list of all such
participants. Furthermore, what variables did the researchers have to measure
on each participant? Was it necessary to know each participant’s age, sex, physi-
cal fitness, and other health-related variables, or was weight the only important
variable? The results of the study may not be relevant to the general population
if many of the participants in the study had a particular health condition. In the
wheat experiment, it was important to measure both the soil characteristics of
the fields and the environmental conditions, such as temperature and rainfall, to
obtain results that could be generalized to fields not included in the study. The
design of a study or experiment is crucial to obtaining results that can be general-
ized beyond the study.
Finally, having collected, summarized, and analyzed the data, it is important
to report the results in unambiguous terms to interested people. For the meat
inspection example, the government inspection agency and the personnel in the
beef-processing plant would need to know the distribution of fat content in the
daily production of ground beef. Based on this distribution, the agency could then
impose fines or take other remedial actions against the production facility. Also,
knowledge of this distribution would enable company production personnel to
make adjustments to the process in order to obtain acceptable fat content in their
ground beef packages. Therefore, the results of the statistical analyses cannot
be presented in ambiguous terms; decisions must be made from a well-defined
knowledge base. The results of the weight-gain study would be of vital interest to
physicians who have patients participating in the smoking-cessation program. If
a significant increase in weight was recorded for those individuals who had quit
smoking, physicians would have to recommend diets so that the former smokers
6 Chapter 1 Statistics and the Scientific Method
FIGURE 1.2
Population and sample Set of all measurements:
the population
Set of measurements
selected from the
population:
the sample
would not go from one health problem (smoking) to another (elevated blood
pressure due to being overweight). It is crucial that a careful description of the
participants—that is, age, sex, and other health-related information—be included
in the report. In the wheat study, the experiment would provide farmers with
information that would allow them to economically select the optimum amount of
nitrogen required for their fields. Therefore, the report must contain information
concerning the amount of moisture and types of soils present on the study fields.
Otherwise, the conclusions about optimal wheat production may not pertain to
farmers growing wheat under considerably different conditions.
To infer validly that the results of a study are applicable to a larger group
population than just the participants in the study, we must carefully define the population
(see Definition 1.1) to which inferences are sought and design a study in which the
sample sample (see Definition 1.2) has been appropriately selected from the designated
population. We will discuss these issues in Chapter 2.
DEFINITION 1.1 A population is the set of all measurements of interest to the sample collector.
(See Figure 1.2.)
DEFINITION 1.2 A sample is any subset of measurements selected from the population.
(See Figure 1.2.)
1.2 Why Study Statistics?

We can think of many reasons for taking an introductory course in statistics. One
reason is that you need to know how to evaluate published numerical facts. Every
person is exposed to manufacturers’ claims for products; to the results of socio-
logical, consumer, and political polls; and to the published results of scientific
research. Many of these results are inferences based on sampling. Some infer-
ences are valid; others are invalid. Some are based on samples of adequate size;
others are not. Yet all these published results bear the ring of truth. Some peo-
ple (particularly statisticians) say that statistics can be made to support almost
1.2 Why Study Statistics? 7
anything. Others say it is easy to lie with statistics. Both statements are true. It
is easy, purposely or unwittingly, to distort the truth by using statistics when
presenting the results of sampling to the uninformed. It is thus crucial that you
become an informed and critical reader of data-based reports and articles.
A second reason for studying statistics is that your profession or employment
may require you to interpret the results of sampling (surveys or experimentation)
or to employ statistical methods of analysis to make inferences in your work. For
example, practicing physicians receive large amounts of advertising describing
the benefits of new drugs. These advertisements frequently display the numerical
results of experiments that compare a new drug with an older one. Do such data
really imply that the new drug is more effective, or is the observed difference in
results due simply to random variation in the experimental measurements?
Recent trends in the conduct of court trials indicate an increasing use of
probability and statistical inference in evaluating the quality of evidence. The use
of statistics in the social, biological, and physical sciences is essential because all
these sciences make use of observations of natural phenomena, through sample
surveys or experimentation, to develop and test new theories. Statistical methods
are employed in business when sample data are used to forecast sales and profit.
In addition, they are used in engineering and manufacturing to monitor product
quality. The sampling of accounts is a useful tool to assist accountants in conduct-
ing audits. Thus, statistics plays an important role in almost all areas of science,
business, and industry; persons employed in these areas need to know the basic
concepts, strengths, and limitations of statistics.
The article “What Educated Citizens Should Know About Statistics and Prob-
ability,” by J. Utts (2003), contains a number of statistical ideas that need to be
understood by users of statistical methodology in order to avoid confusion in the
use of their research findings. Misunderstandings of statistical results can lead to
major errors by government policymakers, medical workers, and consumers of this
information. The article selected a number of topics for discussion. We will sum-
marize some of the findings in the article. A complete discussion of all these topics
will be given throughout the book.
1. One of the most frequent misinterpretations of statistical findings
is when a statistically significant relationship is established between
two variables and it is then concluded that a change in the explana-
tory variable causes a change in the response variable. As will be
discussed in the book, this conclusion can be reached only under
very restrictive constraints on the experimental setting. Utts exam-
ined a recent Newsweek article discussing the relationship between
the strength of religious beliefs and physical healing. Utts’ article
discussed the problems in reaching the conclusion that the stronger
a patient’s religious beliefs, the more likely the patient would be
cured of his or her ailment. Utts showed that there are numerous
other factors involved in a patient’s health and the conclusion that
religious beliefs cause a cure cannot be validly reached.
2. A common confusion in many studies is the difference between
(statistically) significant findings in a study and (practically) signifi-
cant findings. This problem often occurs when large data sets are
involved in a study or experiment. This type of problem will be dis-
cussed in detail throughout the book. We will use a number of exam-
ples that will illustrate how this type of confusion can be avoided by
researchers when reporting the findings of their experimental results.
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"I hope you will forgive my apparent want of respect, mother. It was
not intentional, but this whole affair has been so sudden—brought
about, indeed, by such unforeseen circumstances—that I could
hardly help myself."
"If you had been a hot-headed lad of twenty, I could have understood
your conduct. At your age it is incomprehensible—inexcusable, I was
going to say. Put yourself in my place, if you can, and imagine what I
felt on hearing you say, 'This is my wife.' I, your mother, to whom you
had not deigned to send a word of warning."
"You had been so used to my coming home just when the humour
seized me—to my comet-like fashion of appearing and disappearing
—that I did not expect you would be so annoyed at my arriving
unannounced."
"Nor am I. It is to your wife's arrival—if this girl be indeed your wife."
Sir Philip started from his seat in anger. "This taunt is too much even
from you!" he exclaimed. "How dare you?"
"I dare anything. If the words sound harsh, you have brought them
on yourself by your rash act and forgetfulness of the respect you
owed me. What will the world say about Sir Philip Longridge's
marriage? Have you announced it in the papers, or is the world to
hear of it through gossiping servants?"
"I have made no announcement of my marriage to outsiders. You are

the first in England to hear of it. I crossed the Channel to-day, and
hurried to Northbrook with all possible speed. At least, mother, give
me credit for having lost no time in coming to you. If I had known
what I now do, I should have hesitated before bringing my wife
home!"
Sir Philip laid a bitter stress on the last word.
There was not much sign of feeling in the reply: "Now you are here
you had better tell me all about it."
But he complied with the half request conveyed in the words, and
told the story of his marriage as briefly as possible.
The father of Florence Winstanley, an enthusiastic traveller like

himself, had met with an accident during a mountain excursion. Sir
Philip found him at a village inn of the poorest description, and in an
out-of-the-world spot, just recovering his senses after many days
spent in delirious ravings or silent unconsciousness. He had watched
over him for weeks, and as soon as the sufferer was fit to be moved,
had travelled with him by easy stages to Geneva, where he had left
his daughter, and only child.
The homecoming was a terrible shock to the girl. Her father and she
were all in all to each other, and in addition to the trial of seeing him
so sadly changed, she soon had the greater one of knowing that he
had only returned to die at home. It was during the last month of Mr.
Winstanley's life that the man of mature years and the girl of
eighteen were drawn together; and Florence became engaged to
him who had first earned her gratitude by his devotion to her father.
They would not have married so soon, but for Mr. Winstanley's wish
to place his darling under the care of a loving husband before he
was called to leave the world. There was no doubt about the
affection of the two for each other, so they were married, and the
bride of a week stood by her father's grave, leaning on the arm of the
bridegroom, Sir Philip Longridge.
The pair lingered no longer than was necessary. There were

business matters to settle, and these completed, they turned their
faces homeward, to meet with the reception already described at
Northbrook Hall.
"You see, mother, I could hardly help myself," added Sir Philip. "We
were going to be married, but the fact of Mr. Winstanley's being on
his death-bed precipitated matters. There was no time to let you
know beforehand, and when the thing was done, why, it seemed so
much better to tell you all about it than to attempt to write. I know you
will feel a little annoyed, but after all you must see that the position
was peculiar, and my poor darling's sad loss and loneliness, to say
nothing of her lovely face and sweet nature, ought to appeal to your
motherly heart."
Lady Longridge's motherly heart! Who had ever heard an appeal to it

before? She turned coldly round and said, "The story is very
romantic, no doubt, but I should hardly have expected the loss, the
loneliness, or the fair face to turn the head of a man close upon forty.
I trust she has something more solid by way of recommendation. A
well-stocked purse, or a goodly dowry in houses and land, would
appeal with more power to my feelings than any of the qualifications
you have named."
"Florence has a little property, but she can draw only the income
from it, and that is about two hundred a year."
Lady Longridge fairly hissed out something in reply, but her son
could not distinguish the words. Her face was, however, almost
frightful in its anger, and there was silence for some minutes,
because she would not trust herself to speak, and Sir Philip deemed
it best to say nothing.
"How do you expect to keep up Northbrook?" she asked at last. "You

know your position, and that the paying out of your sisters' fortunes
left you but a narrow income, considering the calls upon you. As you
did not increase it by economy, or by devoting yourself to the
improvement of the estates, you were bound, if you did marry, to
choose a wife with money. I saved and pinched and scraped out of
my means. You spent all you had in your harum-scarum way, never
resting under your own roof, as a decent Christian should, but
wandering the world over, as if you had something on your
conscience, and squandering your money on those who doubtless
blessed you to your face and mocked you when your back was
turned. Then—"
"Then, mother, I borrowed from you and I owe you money now; but,
remember, you have had fair interest for it, regularly paid, and surely
it has been worth something to reign at Northbrook for eighteen
years, since I came of age."
"Only to lose my place now for that chit of a girl."
"Hush, mother! Say what you choose of me, but be silent or speak
kindly of my wife. I was going to say that I do not think Florence
would care to live at Northbrook, and my associations with my
birthplace are none of the sweetest. Circumstances may, however,
make it advisable for us to settle here. If so, there will be only room
for one mistress."
Sir Philip had touched the one tender spot at last. Lady Longridge
might have little room in her heart for her son, and none for his wife,
but she did long to live and die mistress of Northbrook Hall.
"You must pay me the four thousand pounds you owe me, before I
stir from this place," she said.
"That will be quite easy. You will remember that everything

connected with the loan was done as formally as though I were
borrowing from a stranger, and I am entitled to three months' notice,
but if you want the four thousand you can have it. I had a letter from
Mr. Melville quite lately, in which he asked if I knew of anyone who
wished to borrow a few thousands, for he is at his wits' end how to
invest some trust-money."
Foiled once more, Lady Longridge was puzzled what to say. She
decided to "sleep upon it," and, rising from her seat, remarked, "You
will be tired with your journey, and I am overdone with the shock I
have sustained. It would have been better to leave business matters
until to-morrow, so I will say good-night. You are master, and can
give your orders, you know."
She held out her hand—they were not demonstrative this mother
and son; he took it in his own for an instant, and having opened the
door for her, she passed out of the room and up the stairs without
another word.
When morning came, Lady Longridge had thought the matter out
and decided on her course of action. She would certainly come off
the worse in an open quarrel with her son. Her reign at the Hall
would be over. And she would either have to betake herself to a
smaller residence which was hers for life, or find a home elsewhere.
The house in question was well let and she had lived at the Hall rent
free hitherto. Thus she was touched in two tender spots—her liking
for Northbrook and her love of money.
For her own sake she resolved to conciliate that "chit of a girl whom
Philip had married." Thus she spoke of the new Lady Longridge to
Thorley.
But for once the elder lady found her match. The young wife, who
was pliable as wax in the hands of one she loved, had a will as
strong as that of her husband's mother, when roused by
circumstances to exert it.
The old lady might think she had only to hold out a finger and the
young one would run to seize it, but she found herself mistaken.
Florence was as little likely to bend by a hair's-breadth as was one of
the marble statues in the hall.
"My mother will be in a different humour this morning," said Sir Philip
to his wife, when the morning came. "I dare say she will make herself
very agreeable to you for the future."
"What she may do matters little to me, Philip. I am not likely to see
her. You will please order someone to bring my breakfast here—not
your mother's maid, who seems a kindly person, but of necessity a
sort of domestic spy."
"But surely, Florence, you will meet my mother again. After all, she
had cause to be aggrieved, and she is a lonely woman, getting on in
life."
"I should have thought that one who had known bereavement and
loneliness would have opened her heart to another in like
circumstances. Philip, I shall never forget your mother's look of
anger and hate as you spoke of your wife. It was directed at you, but
it seemed to turn me to stone. She is a fearful woman, Philip, and for
a world's wealth I would not live under the same roof with her."
Hitherto Sir Philip had only seen the tender, loving side of his wife's
character. He had noted her devotion to her suffering parent, her
utter forgetfulness of self, her unwearying patience. He had seen her
caring for the troubled, poverty-stricken people in her
neighbourhood, and finding time to give to others the help,
sympathy, and kind words of which she too stood so much in need.
He knew that she had given to himself no half-hearted affection, and
yet her love went hand in hand with the most exquisite modesty of
manner and speech. Now he saw the other side, and realized that
his wife's will would match that of his mother, and, between the two,
his position would be far from agreeable.
"Are you not rather hasty in coming to such a decision?" he asked.

"You have seen so little of my mother."
"Very little in one sense, too much in another. I would not have a
second experience like last night's for the world."
"Well, dearest, I will breakfast with my mother, and you shall have
your meal here. Afterwards we will talk matters over," was Sir Philip's
reply.
Lady Longridge had decided to meet both her son and his wife not
with two fingers, but with both arms extended. She found only her
son, who did not respond to her advances. After a formal greeting,
he relapsed into silence and the newspaper.
"How is Florence this morning? Rested, I hope, poor child! She

seemed almost hysterical last night, and no wonder. She was
wearied and overwrought."
"Thank you, she is better, but will breakfast in her room," replied Sir
Philip. "Do not trouble yourself, mother; I have already ordered
something to be sent up," for her hand was on the bell to summon a
servant.
"Thorley shall go to your wife immediately, Philip. She is a good
creature, as you know."
"It is very kind of you, but Florence will not deprive you of Thorley's
services, even for a short time. She prefers to be waited on by one of
the girls, thank you all the same."
And again Sir Philip devoted himself to the paper.
There was mischief brewing. Lady Longridge noted the stress on

those two words, and felt more uncomfortable than she would have
liked to confess. After an interval of silence she said—
"I know you like to linger over your last cup and the paper, so, if you
will excuse me, I will go up and see Florence."
She was not long absent. When she presented herself at the
bedroom door, she found it locked, and in answer to her knock and
request to be admitted, the voice of her daughter-in-law replied—
"I cannot see any one at present."
There was something in the tone which prevented Lady Longridge

from making a second application for admission, and she returned to
her son.
"Your wife will not admit me, Philip," she said.
"It is not always convenient to receive visitors when one is dressing,"

was the calm reply.
"She might have been civil."
"I have always found her more, and better, than merely civil, but she
may be adapting her manners to those prevailing at Northbrook."
And again he turned to the "Times."

Never before had Lady Longridge been puzzled what to do next.
After a short silence she said, in an ironical tone—
"Perhaps your wife will like to see Millward, and give her own orders,
since I must yield place to the new mistress of Northbrook."
"Perhaps so; though I doubt if Florence had realized the fact.

Millward may as well see her."
And, ignoring the irony in his mother's manner, Sir Philip rang for the
housekeeper, and told her she had better wait upon Lady Longridge
for orders.
The woman turned to her from whom she had been accustomed to
receive them; but Sir Philip said—
"I mean my wife. My mother herself suggested that this would be the
better plan. Your young mistress has not left her room yet, but she
may see you."
She did, for she was ready dressed, and after a while Millward
descended the stairs with two impressions on her mind. One was
that the new Lady Longridge had her wits about her, and, though she
was so young, would prove a match for the old one. The second that
there would be some pleasure in serving a beautiful creature like
that, who knew how to unite youth and beauty with dignity, and both
with a gracious manner that made it delightful to receive orders from
her.
A tyrannical mistress, who cares nothing for the feelings of her

subordinates, may nevertheless be well served by them. Self-interest
and fear may obtain this much, but such services will only be
rendered until a better opportunity presents itself. So, though
Millward had been twenty years at Northbrook, she went down-stairs
glad at heart with the thought that her "old lady" would meet her
match in Sir Philip's young wife.
CHAPTER III.
"MEN MAY COME AND MEN MAY GO,"
BUT I STAY ON FOR EVER.
WHEN Lady Longridge found that her daughter-in-law had promptly

accepted the position, and that Millward went straight to her own
domain instead of returning to her for the orders which she had felt
quite certain she would have to give as usual, she was extremely
angry. What added fuel to the fire was that she had brought about
this state of things by her own act. But she never dreamed that her
words would be taken in earnest. She only suggested that Florence
should give the orders, as a means of humiliating the young wife,
who could have had no experience of housekeeping in a place like
Northbrook Hall.
She appealed to Sir Philip, who merely reminded her that Millward
had gone to his with by her express wish.
"It was your doing, not mine," he said.
"I was not in earnest," she replied. "Was it likely that I should expect
that mere girl to take command here at a moment's notice?"
"Then it was a pity you said it, mother. I took it for granted that since
you made the suggestion it must be the right thing to do, though I am
sure Florence would have been in no hurry to assert herself. The
change must have come, of course, and perhaps it is as well that it
should be effected without any needless fuss, especially as you were
the first to propose it."
Yes, those incautious words, spoken ironically, but taken in earnest,
had done mischief which could never be repaired. She was deposed
without even a struggle, and yet had she not always resolved that
should Philip marry, she would show a brave fight before yielding the
chief place at Northbrook to a daughter-in-law?
It would take too long to tell how the two ladies were brought
together, outwardly as friends, but really as far asunder as the poles.
The young wife was the nominal head and mistress, but old Lady
Longridge remained at the Hall, in spite of all efforts to dislodge her.
She talked of going, but objected to more than one removal, and
said that she would reside at her own house when the present
tenant's lease was out; it would be only a matter of six months.
Surely Philip and Florence would not grudge her a shelter for so
long. It would be trial enough to leave a place which had been her
home for five-and-forty years, but a little delay would soften it to her.
So this was agreed to.
Lady Longridge knew how to utilise the advantage, and laughed

triumphantly to herself, as she set to work to regain lost ground.
"I made one mistake," she thought. "I will not repeat it. Philip's wife
has not got rid of the mother-in-law. I know him yet better than she
does. Phil is infatuated with her at present, but one gets accustomed
to the fairest face, and after a while the old roving temperament will
reassert itself. He has never stayed long in a place since he became
his own master, and he never will."
The astute old woman judged rightly. The restless fit came on again
before the end of three months. The young wife would not be left
behind; the time for the mother's removal had not arrived, so the pair
departed on their travels and left Lady Longridge, senior, at the Hall,
but with the understanding that she would vacate it as arranged.
"When we return we shall have our house to ourselves," said Sir

Philip to his wife. He felt that whilst she and his mother preserved an
appearance of friendliness, and the elder lady carefully abstained
from interfering in household matters, there was no real goodwill
between them.
"I doubt it, Philip. Your mother will not move from Northbrook if she
can help it."
"But she agreed to go at the six months' end, and considered it a

favour to be allowed to stay so long."
"You will see when the time is up. I only hope you may be right."
It was a month past the six when the pair came back, and they found
Lady Longridge, senior, still at the Hall. "Too ill to be moved," she
said.
At any rate she had kept her room for several weeks, and still
professed her inability to leave it.
"Have the Wilmotts left Graylands?" asked her son.
"No, Philip. They are staying on as yearly tenants. I shall not have a
house to myself when I leave here. My health is quite broken. The
thought of turning my back on Northbrook has been quite too much
for me, and I shall not again trouble myself with housekeeping cares.
Rooms will suffice for me and Thorley, and be much better suited to
my income. I can move about, ringing the changes on Brighton, St.
Leonards, or Scarborough in summer, and Torquay or Bournemouth
in winter. It will matter little to me; only I shall see fresh faces, and be
the same lonely old woman everywhere, away from Northbrook. You
will take me in for a week or two now and then, if Florence is
agreeable? Or I can stay at one of the farms."
Sir Philip said something about his mother finding it pleasant to visit
her daughters also.
"Never," she replied. "They went their way, and I shall go mine. How
much have I seen of them in more than twenty years? I have only my
son." And Lady Longridge wiped her eyes, but the light was dim, and
tears were strange to them, so perhaps there was no real moisture
there. At any rate, Sir Philip could discern none.
Many a date was fixed for the old lady's departure, but something
always prevented it.
Sixteen years had come and gone between the homecoming of Sir
Philip Longridge with his bride and the fair spring morning when
Thorley was sent to silence the too-tuneful Margaretta. But during
the whole time Lady Longridge had not spent a night under any roof
but that of Northbrook Hall. And now she reigned supreme there, for
her son was dead, his widow married a second time, and Margaretta
lived with her grandmother. There was no grandson, so the baronet
of to-day was a far-away cousin, who had a finer place elsewhere,
and Lady Longridge occupied her old home, for which she paid a
rent which was little more than nominal, but which she made a cause
for infinite grumbling.
Of personal property Sir Philip had not much to leave. The two
hundred a year belonging to his wife was not doubled by what he
could bequeath, but what there was became hers absolutely. He
never believed she would marry again, but in case of her so doing,
he willed that his mother was to have the guardianship of
Margaretta, and he trusted to her to make a suitable provision for his
child, knowing that she was well able to do so.
Margaretta was twelve years old when her father died, and
Northbrook was no longer even a temporary refuge for the widow
and her child.
Sir Philip had never cared to stay long at the Hall, and where he
went his wife accompanied him, but the child was usually there
under suitable guardianship, her nurse first, then a capable
governess being answerable to her parents for their charge's well-
doing.
Old Lady Longridge and her daughter-in-law had not become better
friends, and the former was altogether more impracticable at
seventy-eight than she had been at sixty-five. One roof could not
shelter the two, and the young widow was as eager to leave
Northbrook as the older was to get rid of her.
Florence Longridge was a proud woman, and it was a trial for her to
give up the surroundings she had been used to as Sir Philip's wife,
and to live on a narrow income, with a daughter to educate in a
manner befitting her birth. She would have died sooner than ask help
from her mother-in-law, even had she expected to receive it for the
asking. At thirty-four she was almost more beautiful than in her
girlish days, and no less attractive for her intellectual gifts.
After two years' widowhood she accidentally met an old friend of her
husband, one for whom Sir Philip ever expressed the greatest
esteem. He was a man of forty, with wealth, position, and an
honoured name. When he asked her to be his wife she hesitated,
only on her child's account.
"If I marry, I must part with Margaretta," she said. "I am her guardian
only whilst I am a widow."
"Only for a few years, and though she may go to her grandmother, I
will help you still to guard and care for her until she is of age, though,
considering all things, she may return to you before then."
The marriage took place; Lady Longridge claimed her ward, and
having got possession of Margaretta, succeeded in keeping her out
of her mother's presence, except for a short time at the end of every
six months, when she was obliged to permit a meeting by the terms
of her son's will. Probably if Sir Philip could have foreseen events, he
would have rather rejoiced to leave his child in such worthy hands as
those of his friend Hugh Norland, in his position of stepfather to
Margaretta. But the thought of his wife's second marriage was one
he could not endure, so he had ordered matters otherwise, and the
girl was with her grim old kinswoman.
"Thorley," said Lady Longridge, after Margaretta's arrival, "we have

caged our bird once more, and we shall keep her safely, never fear.
The thought of having the charge of her for—let me see—six years
to come, will help to keep me alive. I dare say her mother will count
my years and say, 'She will not last till Margaretta is of age.' But
plenty of people live to eighty-seven, and why not I. I come of a long-
lived race; at least the females live long. I am only angry at one
thing. Mrs. Hugh Norland has far too much money now. I hate to
think of her being rich—far richer than she ever was as Philip's wife.
And she will not give a penny towards Margaretta's maintenance,
shame on her!"
It was true that Mrs. Norland declined to relieve Lady Longridge's

purse, unless she were permitted to have a say in her daughter's
education and in spending the money. This granted, she would have
given any reasonable amount. But much as the old lady loved to
save, she liked still better to punish the daughter-in-law who had
once made her fill a secondary position, and she availed herself to
the utmost of her powers as the legally appointed guardian of
Margaretta.
The girl had a sorry time at Northbrook. She had no companions of

her own age, and indeed, visitors of any age were few and far
between at the Hall. The rector, a new one in Dr. Darley's place,
came, as in duty bound, and always felt, as the door closed behind
him, that the most disagreeable of his pastoral calls was over for the
time being.
Now and then a carriage would pass along the neglected drive, and
ladies would alight from it and spend a short time with Lady
Longridge, who, however, never returned such visits.
"I am too old for gadding about, so each call you are good enough to
pay will only add to my debts," she would say. "However, it is some
comfort to know that nobody cares to see an old lady like me. It is
not likely. I hear nothing, so I have nothing to tell, and I miss one-half
of what people say through not hearing. Then I repeat the tale
wrongly to the next comer, and get into trouble; so you see it would
have been better not to hear or speak."
An inquiry after Margaretta usually made the old lady eloquent.
"My granddaughter! I never know where she is, except at meal-

times, for she is here, there, and everywhere between-whiles. I hear
her often enough—too often, for she is always making a noise which
she calls singing. It is a dreadful trial for an old woman like me to be
burdened with the charge of a girl. But Philip would not leave her to
the tender mercies of a stepfather, and that devoted wife of his would
not keep single for the sake of her 'darling child.' Oh no."
It was always the same. No kind word fur any one, no messenger
sent to bring the lonely girl into the presence of a visitor who might
have been inclined to make her life a little brighter.
Yet Margaretta was not wholly friendless. She had, after a time, three
persons on whose affection she could rely, and all within her reach at
Northbrook.
First of these was Thorley, who had known her from her birth, and
who, in spite of all her mistress could do to the contrary, had never
missed an opportunity of showing her devoted love for the girl. When
Margaretta was a baby, Thorley used to steal away to the nursery
and satisfy the hunger of a loving woman's heart by spending her
few spare moments with the child. She was full of devices for her
amusement, having been herself "the eldest of nine and used to
nursing," and was in consequence the little one's first favourite.
So when Margaretta came back to Northbrook after the interval

between her father's death and her mother's second marriage,
Thorley's was the only familiar face she saw there beside her
grandmother's.
Lady Longridge's first act on finding herself sole mistress of the Hall
had been to make "a clean sweep" of all the servants, Thorley
excepted.
"Not one who ever received orders from Florence shall stay in my
service," she said, and carried out her resolution.
This change rendered it easy for her to reduce her establishment.
"Half the servants ought to be enough to wait on one old woman,"
she said next, and then she decided to spare her purse further by
giving less wages for less trained domestics. No wonder that, inside
and out, the appearance of Northbrook had changed for the worse
since its old mistress resumed her absolute rule there.
"Things will last my time. Let those who follow renew. There are
gewgaws enough that Florence put in and that are not worth house-
room, only that as my landlord took them at a valuation, and I have
nothing to fill their places if they were removed, they may as well
stay where they are."
The gewgaws were all the dainty screens, needlework, elegant

lamp-shades and artistic trifles with which Sir. Philip's wife had
beautified the barrenness of the rooms. All the more substantial
articles were old-fashioned, the last possessor having had no spare
money to spend on refurnishing the Hall.
Margaretta's second and only young friend was a little village

seamstress named Ellen Corry, by whose deft fingers the garments
of the growing girl were remodelled let out and lengthened, as
occasion required.
It was fortunate for Margaretta that she brought with her a good
stock of clothes, and that the materials were admirably chosen both
as to colours and quality—soft, beautiful, girlish, and not likely to
become conspicuous, owing to the changes of fashion. Each
garment had been carefully planned so as to permit of enlargement,
and a length of new material was folded with it for future renovation.
Lady Longridge grunted indignantly as she caused Thorley to pass

Margaretta's wardrobe in review before her. It was in one sense
satisfactory to find that no expenditure of money would be needed
for a long time.
"I should have bought nothing new in any case," snapped out the old
lady. "There are coloured gowns enough of mine laid away that
would have done for the girl, and they will come in when these are
worn out. Take all this frippery away," and she waved off Thorley and
the garments with an impatient gesture.
The maid retired, murmuring a thanksgiving that her darling Miss

Margaretta would be preserved from the ancient horrors laid up by
her mistress, professedly for future wear, but never likely to be
needed.
"A lady's maid," muttered Thorley, "is supposed to get good pickings
out of her mistress's clothes, but I never had any that were worth
selling, much less wearing. However, it is some comfort to think that,
while she goes on hoarding her rubbish, I never feel to covet any of
and one may be thankful not to be tempted. As to Miss Margaretta,
Nelly Corry will keep her right for a couple of years, let her grow as
fast as she likes."
Nelly Corry's aid was soon needed, and in her joy at the sight of a
young face, Margaretta, albeit an unskilful seamstress, determined
to help her in her work.
"I can unpick the seams, if I cannot put them together," she said, and
this she did with her grandmother's approval, qualified, however, by
the remark that it would be a change to see her occupied in anything
but mischief. Nelly was a good, pure-minded little creature, the staff
of her widowed mother, and the child of careful training and many
prayers. No fear that from her Margaretta would receive harm, or
that the dingy nursery, now used as a workroom, would be the scene
of gossip or idle tattle. The baronet's child and the seamstress a few
years older were just a couple of innocent-minded girls, very happy
only to be together, because they were young, and each had no
friend of like age under the roof she called home.
Nelly's home was a real one, and the girl was eloquent always about
her mother's goodness and the wealth of loving care she bestowed
on the only child left her there. The rest were married and gone out
into the world. Only the one ewe lamb was left.
How different with Margaretta! She could only say that she wished
she could ever please her grandmother, who did not, and she
thought never would, love her. That she longed for the mother from
whom she was parted, and was sure that if only she could be with
her and Mr. Norland, he would love her too. For she had known him
when she was a little thing, and he was—oh, so nice always!
"I want the days to go twice as fast, and they pass so slowly here. I
used to think lessons a nuisance, and wish I had only half as many.
Now I should be glad to be properly taught again. My old governess
would not live with grandmother if she might, and grandmother would
not have her or pay her. She thinks anything spent on me is thrown
away, and says I know more than I ought already. She hates music.
Mamma's piano is gone, and the old one here is horrible, no two
notes in tune. It must be a hundred years old, I should think. And
grandmother is glad it is so bad, for she says if it were a good
instrument, I should be at it always, as mamma used to be at hers,
and there would be no peace. It is just the same if I sing. I went out
of doors to-day, and thought she could not hear me, but she did, and
sent Thorley to say I was to stop that screaming, for it was worse
than a railway-whistle."
"Did Miss Thorley say that?" asked Nelly, who had a profound
veneration for Lady Longridge's maid, and thought it impossible for
her to say a harsh word.
"No. She came to me with such a heartbroken look, for she loves to
hear me sing, and says my voice is the only pleasant thing she
hears. I had just put myself in a comfortable place, leaning against a
tree, and she stole up to me looking miserable when I was in the
midst of a fresh song. 'Don't tell me the message,' I said, 'I will tell
you. Grandmother has sent you to bid me stop screeching. I am
right, am I not?'"
"'Yes, my darling. That is just what my lady did say. It seems as if

you cannot get out of hearing, so as to sing in peace, and yet she is
always complaining of being deaf, and turning what people say into
nonsense. She hears well enough. She only pretends to
misunderstand them, so that she may catch things that were never
meant for her ears at all.'"
"Then I wished I were a bird, and that I could fly out of hearing. I
sometimes think I shall run away, Nelly, for life here is so dreadful.
And to have to live it for six long years, or five and a half, for I have
been here a few months already! Thorley was quite shocked, and
said, 'Oh, dear Miss Margaretta, you make me tremble, and I am just
as nervous as I can be to begin with, through your grandma
scolding.'"
"'If you don't call me "Meg," I will start off this minute,' I said. 'I can
run so fast that I should be out of reach before you could begin to
follow.'"
"Then Thorley gasped out, 'Oh, Meg, do not,' and I laughed until I
forgot my grandmother's cross message. You see I make Thorley
call me 'Meg,' because it was my poor father's pet name for me, and
mamma got into the way of using it too. No one but those who loved
me ever used it, so I ask Thorley to say it, because I want to feel
loved yet, and she does care for me."
"She does indeed. And, dear Miss Longridge, so do I. There isn't a

thing you could ask me to do that I would not do for you."
"Then call me 'Meg' this minute, you dear little nice thing," said
Margaretta, and then she flung her arm round the little seamstress's
neck and kissed her with such energy that Nelly was half frightened
at the suddenness of the embrace.
"Kiss me back again. Kiss me, Nelly," cried Margaretta. "Don't you
see I am hungering for love and kindness? Thorley is an old dear,
but I want a young one. I will have you for a friend. I like you, and
grandmother gives me no choice."
So on that day a compact was entered into, and Nelly returned

Margaretta's somewhat tempestuous affection with an almost
worshipping devotion, calling her "Meg" in a whisper, as Thorley did
when no one was within hearing, and resolving that if ever she in her
humble way could help the lonely young lady, she would do it with all
her might.
One thing she succeeded in making Margaretta promise when, from

time to time, she threatened to run away, and that was that she
would go straight to Nelly's home, and no further, to begin with.
To this Margaretta agreed, and both Nelly and Thorley, whom she
informed of the arrangement, were content.
It was through the little seamstress that Meg gained her third friend,
and the one who was likely to be of the most service to her.
CHAPTER IV.
THE MOUSE HELPS THE LIONESS,
AND MARGARETTA GAINS A THIRD FRIEND.
NELLY CORRY'S active fingers were never idle, and her cleverness,
good taste, and modest manners were the means of introducing her
to the best houses in the neighbourhood, as well as to Northbrook
Hall. One of her customers, a childless widow, resided in a pretty
cottage about half a mile from it.
This lady, Mrs. Moffat, was much interested in the little seamstress,
who was so good a daughter and so industrious, and very often
made the girl bring her work into her own sitting-room. There the

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"Nor am I. It is to your wife's arrival—if this girl be indeed your wife."

"I have made no announcement of my marriage to outsiders. You are

Sir Philip laid a bitter stress on the last word.

The father of Florence Winstanley, an enthusiastic traveller like

The pair lingered no longer than was necessary. There were

Lady Longridge's motherly heart! Who had ever heard an appeal to it

"How do you expect to keep up Northbrook?" she asked at last. "You

"That will be quite easy. You will remember that everything

"Are you not rather hasty in coming to such a decision?" he asked.

"How is Florence this morning? Rested, I hope, poor child! She

And again Sir Philip devoted himself to the paper.

There was mischief brewing. Lady Longridge noted the stress on

PART 4 nalyzing THE Data, Interpreting the