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 k

vi Preface

Instructor Companion Site

The instructor’s section of the textbook website contains the following:
1. Solutions to the text problems
2. The supplemental text material described above
3. PowerPoint lecture slides
4. Figures from the text in electronic format, for easy inclusion in lecture slides
5. Data sets from the book examples and homework problems, in electronic form
6. Sample Syllabus
7. Sample Student Projects
The instructor’s section is for instructor use only, and is password-protected. Visit the Instructor Companion Site
portion of the website, located at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery, to register for a password.

Student Solutions Manual

The purpose of the Student Solutions Manual is to provide the student with an in-depth understanding of how to apply
the concepts presented in the textbook. Along with detailed instructions on how to solve the selected chapter exercises,
insights from practical applications are also shared.
Solutions have been provided for problems selected by the author of the text. Occasionally a group of “continued
exercises” is presented and provides the student with a full solution for a specific data set. Problems that are included
in the Student Solutions Manual are indicated by an icon appearing in the text margin next to the problem statement.
k This is an excellent study aid that many text users will find extremely helpful. The Student Solutions Manual k
may be ordered in a set with the text, or purchased separately. Contact your local Wiley representative to request the
set for your bookstore, or purchase the Student Solutions Manual from the Wiley website.

Acknowledgments
I express my appreciation to the many students, instructors, and colleagues who have used the eight earlier editions of
this book and who have made helpful suggestions for its revision. The contributions of Dr. Raymond H. Myers, Dr. G.
Geoffrey Vining, Dr. Brad Jones, Dr. Christine Anderson-Cook, Dr. Connie M. Borror, Dr. Scott Kowalski, Dr. Rachel
Silvestrini, Dr. Megan Olson Hunt, Dr. Dennis Lin, Dr. John Ramberg, Dr. Joseph Pignatiello, Dr. Lloyd S. Nelson, Dr.
Andre Khuri, Dr. Peter Nelson, Dr. John A. Cornell, Dr. Saeed Maghsoodloo, Dr. Don Holcomb, Dr. George C. Runger,
Dr. Bert Keats, Dr. Dwayne Rollier, Dr. Norma Hubele, Dr. Murat Kulahci, Dr. Cynthia Lowry, Dr. Russell G. Heikes,
Dr. Harrison M. Wadsworth, Dr. William W. Hines, Dr. Arvind Shah, Dr. Jane Ammons, Dr. Diane Schaub, Mr. Mark
Anderson, Mr. Pat Whitcomb, Dr. Pat Spagon, and Dr. William DuMouche were particularly valuable. My current
and former School Director and Department Chair, Dr. Ron Askin and Dr. Gary Hogg, have provided an intellectually
stimulating environment in which to work.
The contributions of the professional practitioners with whom I have worked have been invaluable. It is impossi-
ble to mention everyone, but some of the major contributors include Dr. Dan McCarville, Dr. Lisa Custer, Dr. Richard
Post, Mr. Tom Bingham, Mr. Dick Vaughn, Dr. Julian Anderson, Mr. Richard Alkire, and Mr. Chase Neilson of the
Boeing Company; Mr. Mike Goza, Mr. Don Walton, Ms. Karen Madison, Mr. Jeff Stevens, and Mr. Bob Kohm of
Alcoa; Dr. Jay Gardiner, Mr. John Butora, Mr. Dana Lesher, Mr. Lolly Marwah, Mr. Leon Mason of IBM; Dr. Paul
Tobias of IBM and Sematech; Ms. Elizabeth A. Peck of The Coca-Cola Company; Dr. Sadri Khalessi and Mr. Franz
Wagner of Signetics; Mr. Robert V. Baxley of Monsanto Chemicals; Mr. Harry Peterson-Nedry and Dr. Russell Boyles
of Precision Castparts Corporation; Mr. Bill New and Mr. Randy Schmid of Allied-Signal Aerospace; Mr. John M.
Fluke, Jr. of the John Fluke Manufacturing Company; Mr. Larry Newton and Mr. Kip Howlett of Georgia-Pacific; and
Dr. Ernesto Ramos of BBN Software Products Corporation.

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Preface vii

I am indebted to Professor E. S. Pearson and the Biometrika Trustees, John Wiley & Sons, Prentice Hall, The
American Statistical Association, The Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and the editors of Biometrics for permission
to use copyrighted material. Dr. Lisa Custer and Dr. Dan McCorville did an excellent job of preparing the solutions
that appear in the Instructor’s Solutions Manual, and Dr. Cheryl Jennings provided effective and very helpful proof-
reading assistance. I am grateful to NASA, the Office of Naval Research, the Department of Defense, the National
Science Foundation, the member companies of the NSF/Industry/University Cooperative Research Center in Quality
and Reliability Engineering at Arizona State University, and the IBM Corporation for supporting much of my research
in engineering statistics and experimental design over many years.

DOUGLAS C. MONTGOMERY
TEMPE, ARIZONA

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Contents

Preface iii

1
Introduction 1
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1.1 Strategy of Experimentation 1
1.2 Some Typical Applications of Experimental Design 7
1.3 Basic Principles 11
1.4 Guidelines for Designing Experiments 13
1.5 A Brief History of Statistical Design 19
1.6 Summary: Using Statistical Techniques in Experimentation 20
1.7 Problems 21

2
Simple Comparative Experiments 23
2.1 Introduction 24
2.2 Basic Statistical Concepts 25
2.3 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 28
2.4 Inferences About the Differences in Means, Randomized Designs 33
2.4.1 Hypothesis Testing 33
2.4.2 Confidence Intervals 39
2.4.3 Choice of Sample Size 41
2.4.4 The Case Where 𝜎12 ≠ 𝜎22 44
2.4.5 The Case Where 𝜎12 and 𝜎22 Are Known 47
2.4.6 Comparing a Single Mean to a Specified Value 47
2.4.7 Summary 48
2.5 Inferences About the Differences in Means, Paired Comparison Designs 50
2.5.1 The Paired Comparison Problem 50
2.5.2 Advantages of the Paired Comparison Design 52
2.6 Inferences About the Variances of Normal Distributions 53
2.7 Problems 55
ix

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x Contents

3
Experiments with a Single Factor: The Analysis of Variance 64
3.1 An Example 65
3.2 The Analysis of Variance 67
3.3 Analysis of the Fixed Effects Model 69
3.3.1 Decomposition of the Total Sum of Squares 69
3.3.2 Statistical Analysis 72
3.3.3 Estimation of the Model Parameters 76
3.3.4 Unbalanced Data 78
3.4 Model Adequacy Checking 78
3.4.1 The Normality Assumption 79
3.4.2 Plot of Residuals in Time Sequence 81
3.4.3 Plot of Residuals Versus Fitted Values 81
3.4.4 Plots of Residuals Versus Other Variables 86
3.5 Practical Interpretation of Results 86
3.5.1 A Regression Model 87
3.5.2 Comparisons Among Treatment Means 88
3.5.3 Graphical Comparisons of Means 88
3.5.4 Contrasts 89
3.5.5 Orthogonal Contrasts 92
3.5.6 Scheffé’s Method for Comparing All Contrasts 93
3.5.7 Comparing Pairs of Treatment Means 95
3.5.8 Comparing Treatment Means with a Control 98
k 3.6 Sample Computer Output 99 k
3.7 Determining Sample Size 103
3.7.1 Operating Characteristic and Power Curves 103
3.7.2 Confidence Interval Estimation Method 104
3.8 Other Examples of Single-Factor Experiments 105
3.8.1 Chocolate and Cardiovascular Health 105
3.8.2 A Real Economy Application of a Designed Experiment 107
3.8.3 Discovering Dispersion Effects 109
3.9 The Random Effects Model 111
3.9.1 A Single Random Factor 111
3.9.2 Analysis of Variance for the Random Model 112
3.9.3 Estimating the Model Parameters 113
3.10 The Regression Approach to the Analysis of Variance 119
3.10.1 Least Squares Estimation of the Model Parameters 120
3.10.2 The General Regression Significance Test 121
3.11 Nonparametric Methods in the Analysis of Variance 123
3.11.1 The Kruskal–Wallis Test 123
3.11.2 General Comments on the Rank Transformation 124
3.12 Problems 125

4
Randomized Blocks, Latin Squares, and Related Designs 135
4.1 The Randomized Complete Block Design 135
4.1.1 Statistical Analysis of the RCBD 137
4.1.2 Model Adequacy Checking 145
4.1.3 Some Other Aspects of the Randomized Complete Block Design 145
4.1.4 Estimating Model Parameters and the General Regression Significance Test 150

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Contents xi

4.2 The Latin Square Design 153

4.3 The Graeco-Latin Square Design 160
4.4 Balanced Incomplete Block Designs 162
4.4.1 Statistical Analysis of the BIBD 163
4.4.2 Least Squares Estimation of the Parameters 167
4.4.3 Recovery of Interblock Information in the BIBD 169
4.5 Problems 171

5
Introduction to Factorial Designs 179
5.1 Basic Definitions and Principles 179
5.2 The Advantage of Factorials 182
5.3 The Two-Factor Factorial Design 183
5.3.1 An Example 183
5.3.2 Statistical Analysis of the Fixed Effects Model 186
5.3.3 Model Adequacy Checking 191
5.3.4 Estimating the Model Parameters 194
5.3.5 Choice of Sample Size 196
5.3.6 The Assumption of No Interaction in a Two-Factor Model 197
5.3.7 One Observation per Cell 198
5.4 The General Factorial Design 201
5.5 Fitting Response Curves and Surfaces 206
k 5.6 Blocking in a Factorial Design 215 k
5.7 Problems 220

6
The 2k Factorial Design 230
6.1 Introduction 230
6.2 The 22 Design 231
6.3 The 23 Design 240
6.4 The General 2k Design 252
6.5 A Single Replicate of the 2k Design 254
6.6 Additional Examples of Unreplicated 2k Designs 268
6.7 2k Designs are Optimal Designs 280
6.8 The Addition of Center Points to the 2k Design 285
6.9 Why We Work with Coded Design Variables 290
6.10 Problems 292

7
Blocking and Confounding in the 2k Factorial Design 308
7.1 Introduction 308
7.2 Blocking a Replicated 2k Factorial Design 309
7.3 Confounding in the 2k Factorial Design 311
7.4 Confounding the 2k Factorial Design in Two Blocks 311
7.5 Another Illustration of Why Blocking Is Important 319
7.6 Confounding the 2k Factorial Design in Four Blocks 320

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xii Contents

7.7 Confounding the 2k Factorial Design in 2p Blocks 322

7.8 Partial Confounding 323
7.9 Problems 325

8
Two-Level Fractional Factorial Designs 328
8.1 Introduction 329
8.2 The One-Half Fraction of the 2k Design 329
8.2.1 Definitions and Basic Principles 329
8.2.2 Design Resolution 332
8.2.3 Construction and Analysis of the One-Half Fraction 332
8.3 The One-Quarter Fraction of the 2k Design 344
8.4 The General 2k−p Fractional Factorial Design 351
8.4.1 Choosing a Design 351
8.4.2 Analysis of 2k−p Fractional Factorials 354
8.4.3 Blocking Fractional Factorials 355
8.5 Alias Structures in Fractional Factorials and Other Designs 360
8.6 Resolution III Designs 362
8.6.1 Constructing Resolution III Designs 362
8.6.2 Fold Over of Resolution III Fractions to Separate Aliased Effects 364
8.6.3 Plackett–Burman Designs 367
8.7 Resolution IV and V Designs 376
k 8.7.1 Resolution IV Designs 376 k
8.7.2 Sequential Experimentation with Resolution IV Designs 377
8.7.3 Resolution V Designs 383
8.8 Supersaturated Designs 384
8.9 Summary 385
8.10 Problems 386

9
Additional Design and Analysis Topics for Factorial
and Fractional Factorial Designs 405
9.1 The 3k Factorial Design 406
9.1.1 Notation and Motivation for the 3k Design 406
9.1.2 The 32 Design 407
9.1.3 The 33 Design 408
9.1.4 The General 3k Design 413
9.2 Confounding in the 3k Factorial Design 413
9.2.1 The 3k Factorial Design in Three Blocks 413
9.2.2 The 3k Factorial Design in Nine Blocks 416
9.2.3 The 3k Factorial Design in 3p Blocks 417
9.3 Fractional Replication of the 3k Factorial Design 418
9.3.1 The One-Third Fraction of the 3k Factorial Design 418
9.3.2 Other 3k−p Fractional Factorial Designs 421
9.4 Factorials with Mixed Levels 422
9.4.1 Factors at Two and Three Levels 422
9.4.2 Factors at Two and Four Levels 424
9.5 Nonregular Fractional Factorial Designs 425

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Contents xiii

9.5.1 Nonregular Fractional Factorial Designs for 6, 7, and 8 Factors in 16 Runs 427
9.5.2 Nonregular Fractional Factorial Designs for 9 Through 14 Factors in 16 Runs 436
9.5.3 Analysis of Nonregular Fractional Factorial Designs 441
9.6 Constructing Factorial and Fractional Factorial Designs Using
an Optimal Design Tool 442
9.6.1 Design Optimality Criterion 443
9.6.2 Examples of Optimal Designs 443
9.6.3 Extensions of the Optimal Design Approach 453
9.7 Problems 454

10
Fitting Regression Models
(online at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery) 460
10.1 Introduction 461
10.2 Linear Regression Models 461
10.3 Estimation of the Parameters in Linear Regression Models 462
10.4 Hypothesis Testing in Multiple Regression 473
10.4.1 Test for Significance of Regression 473
10.4.2 Tests on Individual Regression Coefficients and Groups of Coefficients 475
10.5 Confidence Intervals in Multiple Regression 478
10.5.1 Confidence Intervals on the Individual Regression Coefficients 478
10.5.2 Confidence Interval on the Mean Response 478
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10.6 Prediction of New Response Observations 479
10.7 Regression Model Diagnostics 480
10.7.1 Scaled Residuals and PRESS 480
10.7.2 Influence Diagnostics 483
10.8 Testing for Lack of Fit 483
10.9 Problems 485

11
Response Surface Methods and Designs 489
11.1 Introduction to Response Surface Methodology 490
11.2 The Method of Steepest Ascent 492
11.3 Analysis of a Second-Order Response Surface 497
11.3.1 Location of the Stationary Point 497
11.3.2 Characterizing the Response Surface 499
11.3.3 Ridge Systems 505
11.3.4 Multiple Responses 506
11.4 Experimental Designs for Fitting Response Surfaces 511
11.4.1 Designs for Fitting the First-Order Model 511
11.4.2 Designs for Fitting the Second-Order Model 511
11.4.3 Blocking in Response Surface Designs 518
11.4.4 Optimal Designs for Response Surfaces 521
11.5 Experiments with Computer Models 535
11.6 Mixture Experiments 542
11.7 Evolutionary Operation 553
11.8 Problems 558

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xiv Contents

12
Robust Parameter Design and Process Robustness
Studies (online at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery) 569
12.1 Introduction 569
12.2 Crossed Array Designs 571
12.3 Analysis of the Crossed Array Design 573
12.4 Combined Array Designs and the Response Model Approach 576
12.5 Choice of Designs 582
12.6 Problems 585

13
Experiments with Random Factors 589
13.1 Random Effects Models 589
13.2 The Two-Factor Factorial with Random Factors 590
13.3 The Two-Factor Mixed Model 597
13.4 Rules for Expected Mean Squares 602
13.5 Approximate F-Tests 605
13.6 Some Additional Topics on Estimation of Variance Components 609
13.6.1 Approximate Confidence Intervals on Variance Components 609
13.6.2 The Modified Large-Sample Method 613
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13.7 Problems 615

14
Nested and Split-Plot Designs 618
14.1 The Two-Stage Nested Design 619
14.1.1 Statistical Analysis 619
14.1.2 Diagnostic Checking 624
14.1.3 Variance Components 626
14.1.4 Staggered Nested Designs 626
14.2 The General m-Stage Nested Design 628
14.3 Designs with Both Nested and Factorial Factors 630
14.4 The Split-Plot Design 634
14.5 Other Variations of the Split-Plot Design 640
14.5.1 Split-Plot Designs with More Than Two Factors 640
14.5.2 The Split-Split-Plot Design 645
14.5.3 The Strip-Split-Plot Design 649
14.6 Problems 650

15
Other Design and Analysis Topics
(online at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery) 656
15.1 Nonnormal Responses and Transformations 657
15.1.1 Selecting a Transformation: The Box–Cox Method 657
15.1.2 The Generalized Linear Model 659

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Contents xv

15.2 Unbalanced Data in a Factorial Design 666

15.2.1 Proportional Data: An Easy Case 667
15.2.2 Approximate Methods 668
15.2.3 The Exact Method 670
15.3 The Analysis of Covariance 670
15.3.1 Description of the Procedure 671
15.3.2 Computer Solution 679
15.3.3 Development by the General Regression Significance Test 680
15.3.4 Factorial Experiments with Covariates 682
15.4 Repeated Measures 692
15.5 Problems 694

Appendix (online at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery) 697

Table I. Cumulative Standard Normal Distribution 698
Table II. Percentage Points of the t Distribution 700
Table III. Percentage Points of the 𝜒 2 Distribution 701
Table IV. Percentage Points of the F Distribution 702
Table V. Percentage Points of the Studentized Range Statistic 707
Table VI. Critical Values for Dunnett’s Test for Comparing Treatments
with a Control 709
Table VII. Coefficients of Orthogonal Polynomials 711
Table VIII. Alias Relationships for 2k−p Fractional Factorial Designs
with k ≤ 15 and n ≤ 64 712
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Bibliography (online at www.wiley.com/college/montgomery) 724
Index 731

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C H A P T E R 1

Introduction

CHAPTER OUTLINE
1.1 STRATEGY OF EXPERIMENTATION SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL FOR CHAPTER 1
1.2 SOME TYPICAL APPLICATIONS S1.1 More about Planning Experiments
OF EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN S1.2 Blank Guide Sheets to Assist in Pre-Experimental
1.3 BASIC PRINCIPLES Planning
S1.3 Montgomery’s Theorems on Designed Experiments
1.4 GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING EXPERIMENTS
1.5 A BRIEF HISTORY OF STATISTICAL DESIGN
1.6 SUMMARY: USING STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES IN
EXPERIMENTATION

The supplemental material is on the textbook website www.wiley.com/college/montgomery.

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CHAPTER LEARNING OBJECTIVES

1. Learn about the objectives of experimental design and the role it plays in the knowledge discovery
process.
2. Learn about different strategies of experimentation.
3. Understand the role that statistical methods play in designing and analyzing experiments.
4. Understand the concepts of main effects of factors and interaction between factors.
5. Know about factorial experiments.
6. Know the practical guidelines for designing and conducting experiments.

1.1 Strategy of Experimentation

Observing a system or process while it is in operation is an important part of the learning process and is an integral
part of understanding and learning about how systems and processes work. The great New York Yankees catcher
Yogi Berra said that “ . . . you can observe a lot just by watching.” However, to understand what happens to a process
when you change certain input factors, you have to do more than just watch—you actually have to change the factors.
This means that to really understand cause-and-effect relationships in a system you must deliberately change the
input variables to the system and observe the changes in the system output that these changes to the inputs produce.
In other words, you need to conduct experiments on the system. Observations on a system or process can lead to
theories or hypotheses about what makes the system work, but experiments of the type described above are required
to demonstrate that these theories are correct.
Investigators perform experiments in virtually all fields of inquiry, usually to discover something about a partic-
ular process or system or to confirm previous experience or theory. Each experimental run is a test. More formally,
1

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2 Chapter 1 Introduction

we can define an experiment as a test or series of runs in which purposeful changes are made to the input variables of
a process or system so that we may observe and identify the reasons for changes that may be observed in the output
response. We may want to determine which input variables are responsible for the observed changes in the response,
develop a model relating the response to the important input variables, and use this model for process or system
improvement or other decision-making.
This book is about planning and conducting experiments and about analyzing the resulting data so that valid and
objective conclusions are obtained. Our focus is on experiments in engineering and science. Experimentation plays
an important role in technology commercialization and product realization activities, which consist of new product
design and formulation, manufacturing process development, and process improvement. The objective in many cases
may be to develop a robust process, that is, a process affected minimally by external sources of variability. There are
also many applications of designed experiments in a nonmanufacturing or non-product-development setting, such
as marketing, service operations, and general business operations. Designed experiments are a key technology for
innovation. Both break through innovation and incremental innovation activities can benefit from the effective use
of designed experiments.
As an example of an experiment, suppose that a metallurgical engineer is interested in studying the effect of
two different hardening processes, oil quenching and saltwater quenching, on an aluminum alloy. Here the objective
of the experimenter (the engineer) is to determine which quenching solution produces the maximum hardness for
this particular alloy. The engineer decides to subject a number of alloy specimens or test coupons to each quenching
medium and measure the hardness of the specimens after quenching. The average hardness of the specimens treated
in each quenching solution will be used to determine which solution is best.
As we consider this simple experiment, a number of important questions come to mind:
1. Are these two solutions the only quenching media of potential interest?
2. Are there any other factors that might affect hardness that should be investigated or controlled in this
k k
experiment (such as the temperature of the quenching media)?
3. How many coupons of alloy should be tested in each quenching solution?
4. How should the test coupons be assigned to the quenching solutions, and in what order should the data be
collected?
5. What method of data analysis should be used?
6. What difference in average observed hardness between the two quenching media will be considered
important?
All of these questions, and perhaps many others, will have to be answered satisfactorily before the experiment is
performed.
Experimentation is a vital part of the scientific (or engineering) method. Now there are certainly situations
where the scientific phenomena are so well understood that useful results including mathematical models can be devel-
oped directly by applying these well-understood principles. The models of such phenomena that follow directly from
the physical mechanism are usually called mechanistic models. A simple example is the familiar equation for cur-
rent flow in an electrical circuit, Ohm’s law, E = IR. However, most problems in science and engineering require
observation of the system at work and experimentation to elucidate information about why and how it works.
Well-designed experiments can often lead to a model of system performance; such experimentally determined models
are called empirical models. Throughout this book, we will present techniques for turning the results of a designed
experiment into an empirical model of the system under study. These empirical models can be manipulated by a
scientist or an engineer just as a mechanistic model can.
A well-designed experiment is important because the results and conclusions that can be drawn from the experi-
ment depend to a large extent on the manner in which the data were collected. To illustrate this point, suppose that the
metallurgical engineer in the above experiment used specimens from one heat in the oil quench and specimens from
a second heat in the saltwater quench. Now, when the mean hardness is compared, the engineer is unable to say how
much of the observed difference is the result of the quenching media and how much is the result of inherent differences

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1.1 Strategy of Experimentation 3

Controllable factors ◾ FIGURE 1.1 General model of a process or system

x1 x2 xp

Inputs Output
Process
y

z1 z2 zq
Uncontrollable factors

between the heats.1 Thus, the method of data collection has adversely affected the conclusions that can be drawn from
the experiment.
In general, experiments are used to study the performance of processes and systems. The process or system can
be represented by the model shown in Figure 1.1. We can usually visualize the process as a combination of oper-
ations, machines, methods, people, and other resources that transforms some input (often a material) into an output
that has one or more observable response variables. Some of the process variables and material properties x1 , x2 , . . . , xp
are controllable, whereas other variables such as environmental factors or some material properties z1 , z2 , . . . , zq are
uncontrollable (although they may be controllable for purposes of a test). The objectives of the experiment may
include the following:
1. Determining which variables are most influential on the response y
2. Determining where to set the influential x’s so that y is almost always near the desired nominal value
k 3. Determining where to set the influential x’s so that variability in y is small k
4. Determining where to set the influential x’s so that the effects of the uncontrollable variables z1 , z2 , . . . , zq
are minimized.
As you can see from the foregoing discussion, experiments often involve several factors. Usually, an objective of
the experimenter is to determine the influence that these factors have on the output response of the system. The general
approach to planning and conducting the experiment is called the strategy of experimentation. An experimenter can
use several strategies. We will illustrate some of these with a very simple example.
I really like to play golf. Unfortunately, I do not enjoy practicing, so I am always looking for a simpler solution
to lowering my score. Some of the factors that I think may be important, or that may influence my golf score, are as
follows:
1. The type of driver used (oversized or regular sized)
2. The type of ball used (balata or three piece)
3. Walking and carrying the golf clubs or riding in a golf cart
4. Drinking water or drinking “something else” while playing
5. Playing in the morning or playing in the afternoon
6. Playing when it is cool or playing when it is hot
7. The type of golf shoe spike worn (metal or soft)
8. Playing on a windy day or playing on a calm day.
Obviously, many other factors could be considered, but let’s assume that these are the ones of primary interest.
Furthermore, based on long experience with the game, I decide that factors 5 through 8 can be ignored; that is, these

1 A specialist in experimental design would say that the effects of quenching media and heat were confounded; that is, the effects of these two factors cannot be separated.

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4 Chapter 1 Introduction

factors are not important because their effects are so small that they have no practical value. Engineers, scientists,
and business analysts often must make these types of decisions about some of the factors they are considering in
real experiments.
Now, let’s consider how factors 1 through 4 could be experimentally tested to determine their effect on my golf
score. Suppose that a maximum of eight rounds of golf can be played over the course of the experiment. One approach
would be to select an arbitrary combination of these factors, test them, and see what happens. For example, suppose
the oversized driver, balata ball, golf cart, and water combination is selected, and the resulting score is 87. During the
round, however, I noticed several wayward shots with the big driver (long is not always good in golf), and, as a result,
I decide to play another round with the regular-sized driver, holding the other factors at the same levels used previously.
This approach could be continued almost indefinitely, switching the levels of one or two (or perhaps several) factors for
the next test, based on the outcome of the current test. This strategy of experimentation, which we call the best-guess
approach, is frequently used in practice by engineers and scientists. It often works reasonably well, too, because
the experimenters often have a great deal of technical or theoretical knowledge of the system they are studying, as
well as considerable practical experience. The best-guess approach has at least two disadvantages. First, suppose the
initial best-guess does not produce the desired results. Now the experimenter has to take another guess at the correct
combination of factor levels. This could continue for a long time, without any guarantee of success. Second, suppose
the initial best-guess produces an acceptable result. Now the experimenter is tempted to stop testing, although there is
no guarantee that the best solution has been found.
Another strategy of experimentation that is used extensively in practice is the one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT)
approach. The OFAT method consists of selecting a starting point, or baseline set of levels, for each factor, and then
successively varying each factor over its range with the other factors held constant at the baseline level. After all tests
are performed, a series of graphs are usually constructed showing how the response variable is affected by varying
each factor with all other factors held constant. Figure 1.2 shows a set of these graphs for the golf experiment, using
k the oversized driver, balata ball, walking, and drinking water levels of the four factors as the baseline. The interpre- k
tation of these graphs is straightforward; for example, because the slope of the mode of travel curve is negative, we
would conclude that riding improves the score. Using these one-factor-at-a-time graphs, we would select the optimal
combination to be the regular-sized driver, riding, and drinking water. The type of golf ball seems unimportant.
The major disadvantage of the OFAT strategy is that it fails to consider any possible interaction between the fac-
tors. An interaction is the failure of one factor to produce the same effect on the response at different levels of another
factor. Figure 1.3 shows an interaction between the type of driver and the beverage factors for the golf experiment.
Notice that if I use the regular-sized driver, the type of beverage consumed has virtually no effect on the score, but if
I use the oversized driver, much better results are obtained by drinking water instead of “something else.” Interactions
between factors are very common, and if they occur, the one-factor-at-a-time strategy will usually produce poor results.
Many people do not recognize this, and, consequently, OFAT experiments are run frequently in practice. (Some indi-
viduals actually think that this strategy is related to the scientific method or that it is a “sound” engineering principle.)
One-factor-at-a-time experiments are always less efficient than other methods based on a statistical approach to design.
We will discuss this in more detail in Chapter 5.
The correct approach to dealing with several factors is to conduct a factorial experiment. This is an experimental
strategy in which factors are varied together, instead of one at a time. The factorial experimental design concept is
Score

Score

Score

Score

O R B T W R W SE
Driver Ball Mode of travel Beverage

◾ FIGURE 1.2 Results of the one-factor-at-a-time strategy for the golf experiment

k
 k

1.1 Strategy of Experimentation 5

Oversized
driver
T

Type of ball
Score
Regular-sized
driver

W SE
Beverage type O R
Type of driver
◾ FIGURE 1.3
◾ F I G U R E 1 . 4 A two-factor
Interaction between type of
factorial experiment involving type
driver and type of beverage for
of driver and type of ball
the golf experiment

extremely important, and several chapters in this book are devoted to presenting basic factorial experiments and a
number of useful variations and special cases.
To illustrate how a factorial experiment is conducted, consider the golf experiment and suppose that only two
factors, type of driver and type of ball, are of interest. Figure 1.4 shows a two-factor factorial experiment for studying
the joint effects of these two factors on my golf score. Notice that this factorial experiment has both factors at two
levels and that all possible combinations of the two factors across their levels are used in the design. Geometrically, the
four runs form the corners of a square. This particular type of factorial experiment is called a 22 factorial design (two
k factors, each at two levels). Because I can reasonably expect to play eight rounds of golf to investigate these factors, k
a reasonable plan would be to play two rounds of golf at each combination of factor levels shown in Figure 1.4.
An experimental designer would say that we have replicated the design twice. This experimental design would enable
the experimenter to investigate the individual effects of each factor (or the main effects) and to determine whether the
factors interact.
Figure 1.5a shows the results of performing the factorial experiment in Figure 1.4. The scores from each round
of golf played at the four test combinations are shown at the corners of the square. Notice that there are four rounds of
golf that provide information about using the regular-sized driver and four rounds that provide information about using
the oversized driver. By finding the average difference in the scores on the right- and left-hand sides of the square (as in
Figure 1.5b), we have a measure of the effect of switching from the oversized driver to the regular-sized driver, or
92 + 94 + 93 + 91 88 + 91 + 88 + 90
Driver effect = −
4 4
= 3.25
That is, on average, switching from the oversized to the regular-sized driver increases the score by 3.25 strokes per
round. Similarly, the average difference in the four scores at the top of the square and the four scores at the bottom
measures the effect of the type of ball used (see Figure 1.5c):
88 + 91 + 92 + 94 88 + 90 + 93 + 91
Ball effect = −
4 4
= 0.75
Finally, a measure of the interaction effect between the type of ball and the type of driver can be obtained by subtracting
the average scores on the left-to-right diagonal in the square from the average scores on the right-to-left diagonal (see
Figure 1.5d), resulting in
92 + 94 + 88 + 90 88 + 91 + 93 + 91
Ball–driver interaction effect = −
4 4
= 0.25

k
 k

6 Chapter 1 Introduction

88, 91 92, 94
T

Type of ball
88, 90 93, 91
B

O R
Type of driver
(a) Scores from the golf experiment

– +
T T + + T –

+
Type of ball

Type of ball

Type of ball
– – –

+
B B B
– +

O R O R O R
Type of driver Type of driver Type of driver
(b) Comparison of scores leading (c) Comparison of scores (d) Comparison of scores
to the driver effect leading to the ball effect leading to the ball–driver
interaction effect

◾ FIGURE 1.5 Scores from the golf experiment in Figure 1.4 and calculation of the factor effects
k k
The results of this factorial experiment indicate that driver effect is larger than either the ball effect or the inter-
action. Statistical testing could be used to determine whether any of these effects differ from zero. In fact, it turns out
that there is reasonably strong statistical evidence that the driver effect differs from zero and the other two effects do
not. Therefore, this experiment indicates that I should always play with the oversized driver.
One very important feature of the factorial experiment is evident from this simple example; namely, factorials
make the most efficient use of the experimental data. Notice that this experiment included eight observations, and all
eight observations are used to calculate the driver, ball, and interaction effects. No other strategy of experimentation
makes such an efficient use of the data. This is an important and useful feature of factorials.
We can extend the factorial experiment concept to three factors. Suppose that I wish to study the effects of type
of driver, type of ball, and the type of beverage consumed on my golf score. Assuming that all three factors have two
levels, a factorial design can be set up as shown in Figure 1.6. Notice that there are eight test combinations of these
three factors across the two levels of each and that these eight trials can be represented geometrically as the corners of
a cube. This is an example of a 23 factorial design. Because I only want to play eight rounds of golf, this experiment
would require that one round be played at each combination of factors represented by the eight corners of the cube in
Figure 1.6. However, if we compare this to the two-factor factorial in Figure 1.4, the 23 factorial design would provide
the same information about the factor effects. For example, there are four tests in both designs that provide information
about the regular-sized driver and four tests that provide information about the oversized driver, assuming that each
run in the two-factor design in Figure 1.4 is replicated twice.

◾ F I G U R E 1 . 6 A three-factor factorial experiment involving

type of driver, type of ball, and type of beverage
Beverage

Ball

Driver

k
 k

1.2 Some Typical Applications of Experimental Design 7

Mode of travel ◾ F I G U R E 1 . 7 A four-factor factorial

experiment involving type of driver, type of ball,
Walk Ride type of beverage, and mode of travel

Beverage
Ball

Driver

Mode of travel ◾ F I G U R E 1 . 8 A four-factor fractional

factorial experiment involving type of driver,
Walk Ride type of ball, type of beverage, and mode of travel

Beverage
Ball

Driver

Figure 1.7 illustrates how all four factors—driver, ball, beverage, and mode of travel (walking or riding)—could
k be investigated in a 24 factorial design. As in any factorial design, all possible combinations of the levels of the factors k
are used. Because all four factors are at two levels, this experimental design can still be represented geometrically as
a cube (actually a hypercube).
Generally, if there are k factors, each at two levels, the factorial design would require 2k runs. For example, the
experiment in Figure 1.7 requires 16 runs. Clearly, as the number of factors of interest increases, the number of runs
required increases rapidly; for instance, a 10-factor experiment with all factors at two levels would require 1024 runs.
This quickly becomes infeasible from a time and resource viewpoint. In the golf experiment, I can only play eight
rounds of golf, so even the experiment in Figure 1.7 is too large.
Fortunately, if there are four to five or more factors, it is usually unnecessary to run all possible combinations of
factor levels. A fractional factorial experiment is a variation of the basic factorial design in which only a subset of
the runs is used. Figure 1.8 shows a fractional factorial design for the four-factor version of the golf experiment. This
design requires only 8 runs instead of the original 16 and would be called a one-half fraction. If I can play only eight
rounds of golf, this is an excellent design in which to study all four factors. It will provide good information about the
main effects of the four factors as well as some information about how these factors interact.
Fractional factorial designs are used extensively in industrial research and development, and for process
improvement. These designs will be discussed in Chapters 8 and 9.

1.2 Some Typical Applications of Experimental Design

Experimental design methods have found broad application in many disciplines. As noted previously, we may view
experimentation as part of the scientific process and as one of the ways by which we learn about how systems or
processes work. Generally, we learn through a series of activities in which we make conjectures about a process,
perform experiments to generate data from the process, and then use the information from the experiment to establish
new conjectures, which lead to new experiments, and so on.
Experimental design is a critically important tool in the scientific and engineering world for driving innovation
in the product realization process. Critical components of these activities are in new manufacturing process design and

k
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