Advance Research of Uganda
Advance Research of Uganda
Advance Research of Uganda
LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
After reading this lesson, you should be able to understand:
a) Meaning, Objectives and Types of Research
b) Qualities of Researcher
c) Significance of Research
d) Research Process
e) Research Problem
f) Features, Importance, Characteristics, Concepts and Types of Research Design
g) Case Study Research
h) Hypothesis and Its Testing
i) Sample Survey and Sampling Methods
j) Data presentation analysis and interpretation
Research in simple terms refers to search for knowledge. It is a scientific and systematic
search for information on a particular topic or issue. It is also known as the art of scientific
investigation. Several social scientists have defined research in different ways.
According to Clifford Woody (Kothari, 1988), research comprises “defining and redefining
problems, formulating hypotheses or suggested solutions; collecting, organizing and
evaluating data; making deductions and reaching conclusions; and finally, carefully
testing the conclusions to determine whether they fit the formulated hypotheses”.
Objectives of Research:
The objective of research is to find answers to the questions by applying scientific
procedures. In other words, the main aim of research is to find out the truth which is
hidden and has not yet been discovered. Although every research study has its own
specific objectives, the research objectives may be broadly grouped as follows:
1. To gain familiarity with new insights into a phenomenon (i.e., formulate research
studies);
2. To accurately portray the characteristics of a particular individual, group, or a
situation (i.e., descriptive research studies);
3. To analyze the frequency with which something occurs (i.e., diagnostic research
studies); and
4. To examine the hypothesis of a causal relationship between two variables (i.e.,
hypothesis-testing research studies).
Research Methods versus Methodology:
Research methods include all those techniques/methods that are adopted for conducting
research. Thus, research techniques or methods are the methods that the researchers
adopt for conducting the research studies.
On the other hand, research methodology is the way in which research problems are
solved systematically. It is a science of studying how research is conducted scientifically.
Under it, the researcher acquaints himself/herself with the various steps generally
adopted to study a research problem, along with the underlying logic behind them.
Hence, it is not only important for the researcher to know the research
techniques/methods, but also the scientific approach called methodology.
Research Approaches:
There are two main approaches to research, namely quantitative approach and qualitative
approach.
The quantitative approach involves the collection of quantitative data, which are put
to hard quantitative analysis in a formal and rigid manner. This approach further includes
experimental, inferential, and simulation approaches to research.
TYPES OF RESEARCH:
There are different types of research. The basic ones are as follows:-
Descriptive Versus Analytical:
Descriptive research consists of surveys and fact-finding enquiries of different types. The
main objective of descriptive research is describing the state of affairs as it prevails at
the time of study. The term ‘ex post facto research’ is quite often used for descriptive
research studies in social sciences and business research. The most distinguishing feature
of this method is that the researcher has no control over the variables here. He/she has
to only report what is happening or what has happened. Majority of the ex post facto
research projects are used for descriptive studies in which the researcher attempts to
examine phenomena, such as the consumers’ preferences, frequency of purchases,
shopping, etc. Despite the inability of the researchers to control the variables, ex post
facto studies may also comprise attempts by them to discover the causes of the selected
problem. The methods of research adopted in conducting descriptive research are survey
methods of all kinds, including correlational and comparative methods.
Meanwhile in the Analytical research, the researcher has to use the already available facts
or information, and analyze them to make a critical evaluation of the subject.
The research related to some abstract idea or theory is known as Conceptual Research.
Generally, philosophers and thinkers use it for developing new concepts or for
reinterpreting the existing ones. Empirical Research, on the other hand, exclusively
relies on the observation or experience with hardly any regard for theory and system.
Such research is data based, which often comes up with conclusions that can be verified
through experiments or observation. Empirical research is also known as experimental
type of research, in which it is important to first collect the facts and their sources, and
actively take steps to stimulate the production of desired information. In this type of
research, the researcher first formulates a working hypothesis, and then gathers sufficient
facts to prove or disprove the stated hypothesis. He/she formulates the experimental
design, which according to him/her would manipulate the variables, so as to obtain the
desired information. This type of research is thus characterized by the researcher’s control
over the variables under study. In simple term, empirical research is most appropriate
when an attempt is made to prove that certain variables influence the other variables in
some way. Therefore, the results obtained by using the experimental or empirical studies
are considered to be the most powerful evidences for a given hypothesis.
Qualities of a Researcher:
It is important for a researcher to possess certain qualities to conduct research. First and
foremost, he being a scientist should be firmly committed to the ‘articles of faith’ of the
scientific methods of research. This implies that a researcher should be a social science
person in the truest sense. Sir Michael Foster cited by (Wilkinson and Bhandarkar, 1979)
identified a few distinct qualities of a scientist.
First of all, the nature of a researcher must be of the temperament that vibrates
in unison with the theme which he is searching. Hence, the seeker of knowledge
must be truthful with truthfulness of nature, which is much more important, much
more exacting than what is sometimes known as truthfulness. The truthfulness
relates to the desire for accuracy of observation and precision of statement.
Ensuring facts is the principle rule of science, which is not an easy matter. The
difficulty may arise due to untrained eye, which fails to see anything beyond what
it has the power of seeing and sometimes even less than that.
Research requires the moral quality of courage, which reflects the courage of a
steadfast endurance. The process of conducting research is not an easy task.
There are occasions when a research scientist might feel defeated or completely
lost. This is the stage when a researcher would need immense courage and the
sense of conviction.
A researcher should cultivate the habit of reserving judgment when the required
data are insufficient.
Significance of Research:
Research assumes significant role in the formulation of economic policy for both,
the government and business. It provides the basis for almost all government
policies of an economic system. Government budget formulation, for example,
depends particularly on the analysis of needs and desires of people, and the
availability of revenues, which requires research.
Research is also necessary for collecting information on the social and economic
structure of an economy to understand the process of change occurring in the
country. Collection of statistical information, though not a routine task, involves
various research problems. Therefore, large staff of research technicians or
experts are engaged by the government these days to undertake this work. Thus,
research as a tool of government economic policy formulation involves three
distinct stages of operation: (i) investigation of economic structure through
continual compilation of facts; (ii) diagnosis of events that are taking place and
analysis of the forces underlying them; and (iii) the prognosis i.e., the prediction
of future developments (Wilkinson and Bhandarkar, 1979).
Research also assumes significance in solving various operational and planning
problems associated with business and industry. In several ways, operations
research, market research and motivational research are vital and their results
assist in taking business decisions. Market research refers to the investigation of
the structure and development of a market for the formulation of efficient policies
relating to purchases, production and sales.
The research in social sciences is concerned with both knowledge for its own sake,
and knowledge for what it can contribute to solve practical problems.
Research Process:
Research Problem:
The first and foremost stage in the research process is to select and properly define the research
problem. A researcher should first identify a problem and formulate it, so as to make it amenable or
susceptible to research. In general, a research problem refers to an unanswered question that a
researcher might encounter in the context of either a theoretical or practical situation, which he/she
would like to answer or find a solution to. A research problem is generally said to exist if the following
conditions emerge (Kothari, 1988):
Research Design:
The most important step after defining the research problem is preparing the design of
the research project, which is popularly known as the ‘research design’. A research design
helps to decide upon issues like what, when, where, how much, by what means etc. With
regard to an enquiry or a research study.
A research design is the arrangement of conditions for collection and analysis of data in
a manner that aims to combine relevance to the research purpose with economy in
procedure. Infact, research design is the conceptual structure within which research is
conducted; it constitutes the blueprint for the collection, measurement and analysis of
data (Selltiz et al, 1962). Thus, research design provides an outline of what the researcher
is going to do in terms of framing the hypothesis, its operational implications and the final
data analysis. Specifically, the research design highlights decisions which include:
1. The nature of the study
2. The purpose of the study
3. The location where the study would be conducted
4. The nature of data required
5. From where the required data can be collected
6. What time period the study would cover
7. The type of sample design that would be used
8. The techniques of data collection that would be used
In view of the stated research design decisions, the overall research design may be
divided into the following (Kothari 1988):
a. The sampling design that deals with the method of selecting items to be observed
for the selected study;
b. The observational design that relates to the conditions under which the
observations are to be made;
c. The statistical design that concerns with the question of how many items are to be
observed, and how the information and data gathered are to be analysed; and
d. The operational design that deals with the techniques by which the procedures
specified in the sampling, statistical and observational designs can be carried out.
Extraneous Variables:
The independent variables which are not directly related to the purpose of the study but
affect the dependent variables, are known as extraneous variables. For instance, assume
that a researcher wants to test the hypothesis that there is a relationship between
children’s school performance and their self-confidence, in which case the latter is an
independent variable and the former, a dependent variable. In this context, intelligence
may also influence the school performance. However, since it is not directly related to
the purpose of the study undertaken by the researcher, it would be known as an
extraneous variable. The influence caused by the extraneous variable(s) on the
dependent variable is technically called the ‘experimental error’. Therefore, a research
study should always be framed in such a manner that the influence of extraneous
variables on the dependent variable/s is completely controlled, and the influence of
independent variable/s is clearly evident.
Control:
One of the most important features of a good research design is to minimize the effect
of extraneous variable(s). Technically, the term ‘control’ is used when a researcher
designs the study in such a manner that it minimizes the effects of extraneous variables.
The term ‘control’ is used in experimental research to reflect the restrain in experimental
conditions.
Confounded Relationship:
Research Hypothesis:
Treatments:
Treatments refer to the different conditions to which the experimental and control groups
are subject to. In the example considered, the two treatments are the parents with
regular earnings and those with no regular earnings. Likewise, if a research study
attempts to examine through an experiment the comparative effect of three different
types of fertilizers on the yield of rice crop, then the three types of fertilizers would be
treated as the three treatments.
Experiment:
Experiment refers to the process of verifying the truth of a statistical hypothesis relating
to a given research problem. For instance, an experiment may be conducted to examine
the yield of a certain new variety of rice crop developed. Further, Experiments may be
categorized into two types, namely, ‘absolute experiment’ and ‘comparative experiment’.
If a researcher wishes to determine the impact of a chemical fertilizer on the yield of a
particular variety of rice crop, then it is known as absolute experiment.
Experimental Unit(s):
The need for a research design arises out of the fact that it facilitates the smooth conduct
of the various stages of research. It contributes to making research as efficient as
possible, thus yielding the maximum information with minimum effort, time and
expenditure.
A research design helps to plan in advance, the methods to be employed for collecting
the relevant data and the techniques to be adopted for their analysis. This would help in
pursuing the objectives of the research in the best possible manner, provided the
available staff, time and money are given. Hence, the research design should be prepared
with utmost care, so as to avoid any error that may disturb the entire project. Thus,
research design plays a crucial role in attaining the reliability of the results obtained,
which forms the strong foundation of the entire process of the research work.
Despite its significance, the purpose of a well-planned design is not realized at times. This
is because it is not given the importance that it deserves. As a consequence, many
researchers are not able to achieve the purpose for which the research designs are
formulated, due to which they end up arriving at misleading conclusions. Therefore, faulty
designing of the research project tends to render the research exercise meaningless. This
makes it imperative that an efficient and suitable research design must be planned before
commencing the process of research.
The research design helps the researcher to organize his/her ideas in a proper form,
which in turn facilitates him/her to identify the inadequacies and faults in them. The
research design is also discussed with other experts for their comments and critical
evaluation, without which it would be difficult for any critic to provide a comprehensive
review and comments on the proposed study.
Characteristics of A Good Research Design:
A good research design often possesses the qualities of being flexible, suitable, efficient,
and economical and so on. Generally, a research design which minimizes bias and
maximizes the reliability of the data collected and analyzed is considered a good design
(Kothari 1988).
A research design which does not allow even the smallest experimental error is said to
be the best design for investigation. Further, a research design that yields maximum
information and provides an opportunity of viewing the various dimensions of a research
problem is considered to be the most appropriate and efficient design. Thus, the question
of a good design relates to the purpose or objective and nature of the research problem
studied.
While a research design may be good, it may not be equally suitable to all studies. In
other words, it may be lacking in one aspect or the other in the case of some other
research problems. Therefore, no single research design can be applied to all types of
research problems.
A research design suitable for a specific research problem would usually involve the
following considerations:
i. The methods of gathering the information;
ii. The skills and availability of the researcher and his/her staff, if any;
iii. The objectives of the research problem being studied;
iv. The nature of the research problem being studied; and
v. The available monetary support and duration of time for the research work.
UNIT 3: CASE STUDY RESEARCH AND THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
LECTURER: MR. KIKAMBI JOHN BOSCO
Hypothesis:
“Hypothesis may be defined as a proposition or a set of propositions set forth as an
explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena either asserted
merely as a provisional conjecture to guide some investigation in the light of established
facts” (Kothari, 1988). A research hypothesis is quite often a predictive statement, which
is capable of being tested using scientific methods that involve an independent and some
dependent variables. For instance, the following statements may be considered:
i. “Students who take tuitions perform better than the others who do not receive
tuitions” or,
ii. “The female students perform as well as the male students”.
Characteristics of Hypothesis:
A hypothesis should have the following characteristic features:-
i. A hypothesis must be precise and clear. If it is not precise and clear, then the
inferences drawn on its basis would not be reliable.
ii. A hypothesis must be capable of being put to test. Quite often, the research
programmes fail owing to its incapability of being subject to testing for validity.
Therefore, some prior study may be conducted by the researcher in order to
make a hypothesis testable.
iii. A hypothesis must state relationship between two variables, in the case of
relational hypotheses.
iv. A hypothesis must be specific and limited in scope. This is because a simpler
hypothesis generally would be easier to test for the researcher. And therefore,
he/she must formulate such hypotheses.
v. As far as possible, a hypothesis must be stated in the simplest language, so as
to make it understood by all concerned. However, it should be noted that
simplicity of a hypothesis is not related to its significance.
vi. A hypothesis must be consistent and derived from the most known facts. In
other words, it should be consistent with a substantial body of established facts.
That is, it must be in the form of a statement which is most likely to occur.
vii. A hypothesis must be amenable to testing within a stipulated or reasonable
period of time. No matter how excellent a hypothesis, a researcher should not
use it if it cannot be tested within a given period of time, as no one can afford
to spend a life-time on collecting data to test it.28
viii. A hypothesis should state the facts that give rise to the necessity of looking for
an explanation. This is to say that by using the hypothesis, and other known
and accepted generalizations, a researcher must be able to derive the original
problem condition. Therefore, a hypothesis should explain what it actually
wants to explain, and for this it should also have an empirical reference.
Concepts Relating To Testing Of Hypotheses:
Testing of hypotheses requires a researcher to be familiar with various concepts concerned
with it such as:
After making decision on the level of significance for hypothesis testing, the researcher has
to next determine the appropriate sampling distribution. The choice to be made generally
relates to normal distribution and the t-distribution. The rules governing the selection of the
correct distribution are similar to the ones already discussed with respect to estimation.
Another step involved in hypothesis testing is the selection of a random sample and then
computing a suitable value from the sample data relating to test statistic by using the
appropriate distribution. In other words, it involves drawing a sample for furnishing empirical
data.
The next step for the researcher is to calculate the probability that the sample result would
diverge as far as it can from expectations, under the situation when the null hypothesis is
actually true.
Another step involved consists of making a comparison of the probability calculated with the
specified value of α, i.e. The significance level. If the calculated probability works out to be
equal to or smaller than the α value in case of one-tailed test, then the null hypothesis is to
be rejected. On the other hand, if the calculated probability is greater, then the null
hypothesis is to be accepted. In case the null hypothesis H0 is rejected, the researcher runs
the risk of committing the Type I error. But, if the null hypothesis H0 is accepted, then it
involves some risk (which cannot be specified in size as long as H0 is vague and not specific)
of committing the Type II error.
SAMPLE SURVEY
A sample design is a definite plan for obtaining a sample from a given population (Kothari,
1988). Sample constitutes a certain portion of the population or universe. Sampling design
refers to the technique or the procedure the researcher adopts for selecting items for the
sample from the population or universe. A sample design helps to decide the number of items
to be included in the sample, i.e., the size of the sample. The sample design should be
determined prior to data collection. There are different kinds of sample designs which a
researcher can choose. Some of them are relatively more precise and easier to adopt than
the others. A researcher should prepare or select a sample design, which must be reliable
and suitable for the research study proposed to be undertaken.
A researcher should take into consideration the following aspects while developing a sample
design:
i. Type Of Universe:
The first step involved in developing sample design is to clearly define the number of cases,
technically known as the universe. A universe may be finite or infinite. In a finite universe the
number of items is certain, whereas in the case of an infinite universe the number of items
is infinite (i.e., there is no idea about the total number of items). For example, while the
population of a city or the number of workers in a factory comprise finite universes, the
number of stars in the sky, or throwing of a dice represent infinite universe.
Prior to selecting a sample, decision has to be made about the sampling unit. A sampling unit
may be a geographical area like a state, district, village, etc., or a social unit like a family,
religious community, school, etc., or it may also be an individual. At times, the researcher
would have to choose one or more of such units for his/her study.
iii. Source List:
Source list is also known as the ‘sampling frame’, from which the sample is to be selected.
The source list consists of names of all the items of a universe. The researcher has to prepare
a source list when it is not available. The source list must be reliable, comprehensive, correct,
and appropriate. It is important that the source list should be as representative of the
population as possible.
Size of the sample refers to the number of items to be chosen from the universe to form a
sample. For a researcher, this constitutes a major problem. The size of sample must be
optimum. An optimum sample may be defined as the one that satisfies the requirements of
representativeness, flexibility, efficiency, and reliability. While deciding the size of sample, a
researcher should determine the desired precision and the acceptable confidence level for
the estimate. The size of the population variance should be considered, because in the case
of a larger variance generally a larger sample is required. The size of the population should
be considered, as it also limits the sample size.
Basically, two costs are involved in a sampling analysis, which govern the selection of a
sampling procedure. They are:
There are two causes of incorrect inferences, namely systematic bias and sampling error.
Systematic bias arises out of errors in the sampling procedure. They cannot be reduced or
eliminated by increasing the sample size. Utmost, the causes of these errors can be identified
and corrected.
Generally, a systematic bias arises out of one or more of the following factors:
Quota Sampling:
Quota sampling is also an example of non-probability sampling. Under this sampling, the
researchers simply assume quotas to be filled from different strata, with certain restrictions
imposed on how they should be selected. This type of sampling is very convenient and is
relatively less expensive. However, the samples selected using this method certainly do not
satisfy the characteristics of random samples. They are essentially judgment samples and
inferences drawn based on that, would not be amenable to statistical treatment in a formal
way.
Probability Sampling:
Probability sampling is also known as ‘choice sampling’ or ‘random sampling’. Under this
sampling design, every item of the universe has an equal chance of being included in the
sample. In a way, it is a lottery method under which individual units are selected from the
whole group, not deliberately, but by using some mechanical process. Therefore, only chance
would determine whether an item or the other would be included in the sample or not. The
results obtained from probability or random sampling would be assured in terms of
probability. That is, the researcher can measure the errors of estimation or the significance
of results obtained from the random sample. This is the superiority of random sampling
design over the deliberate sampling design. Random sampling satisfies the law of statistical
regularity, according to which if on an average the sample chosen is random, then it would
have the same composition and characteristics of the universe. This is the reason why the
random sampling method is considered the best technique of choosing a representative
sample.
The following are the implications of the random sampling:
i. It provides each element in the population an equal probable chance of being
chosen in the sample, with all choices being independent of one another and
ii. It offers each possible sample combination an equal probable opportunity of being
selected.
On the other hand, if instead of taking census of all banks within the selected districts, the
researcher chooses certain towns and interviews all banks in it, this would represent three-
stage sampling design. Again, if instead of taking a census of all banks within the selected
towns, the researcher randomly selects sample banks from each selected town, then it
represents a case of using a four-stage sampling plan. Thus, if the researcher selects
randomly at all stages, then it is called as multi-stage random sampling design.
Thus, a researcher has to pass through various stages of conducting research once the
problem of interest has been selected. Research methodology familiarizes a researcher with
the complex scientific methods of conducting research, which yield reliable results that are
useful to policy-makers, government, industries etc. in decision-making.
Revision questions
For unit 1, 2 and 3
1. Define research.
2. What are the objectives of research?
3. State the significance of research.
4. What is the importance of knowing how to do research?
5. Briefly outline research process.
6. Highlight the different research approaches.
7. Discuss the qualities of a researcher.
8. Explain the different types of research.
9. What is a research problem?
10. Outline the features of research design.
11. Discuss the features of a good research design.
12. Describe the different types of research design.
13. Explain the significance of research design.
14. What is a case study?
15. Discuss the criteria for evaluating case study.
16. Define hypothesis.
17. What are the characteristic features of a hypothesis?
18. Distinguish between null and alternative hypothesis.
19. Differentiate type i error and type ii error.
20. How is a hypothesis tested?
21. Define the concept of sampling design.42
22. Describe the steps involved in sampling design.
23. Discuss the criteria for selecting a sampling procedure.
24. Distinguish between probability and non-probability sampling.
25. How is a random sample selected?
26. Explain complex random sampling designs.
UNIT 4: Data Collection & Sources of Data
LECTURER: MR. KIKAMBI JOHN BOSCO
Merits:
1. Most often respondents are happy to pass on the information required from them when
contacted personally and thus response is encouraging.
2. The information collected through this method is normally more accurate because
interviewer can clear doubts of the informants about certain questions and thus obtain
correct information. In case the interviewer apprehends that the informant is not
giving accurate information, he may cross-examine him and thereby try to obtain the
information.
3. This method also provides the scope for getting supplementary information from the
informant, because while interviewing it is possible to ask some supplementary
questions which may be of greater use later.
4. There might be some questions which the interviewer would find difficult to ask
directly, but with some tactfulness, he can mingle such questions with others and get
the desired information. He can twist the questions keeping in mind the informant’s
reaction. Precisely, a delicate situation can usually he handled more effectively by a
personal interview than by other survey techniques.
5. The interviewer can adjust the language according to the status and educational level
of the person interviewed, and thereby can avoid inconvenience and misinterpretation
on the part of the informant.
Demerits:
1. This method can prove to be expensive if the number of informants is large and the
area is widely spread.
2. There is a greater chance of personal bias and prejudice under this method as
compared to other methods.
3. The interviewers have to be thoroughly trained and experienced; otherwise they may
not be able to obtain the desired information. Untrained or poorly trained interviewers
may spoil the entire work.
4. This method is more time taking as compared to others. This is because interviews can
be held only at the convenience of the informants. Thus, if information is to be
obtained from the working members of households, interviews will have to be held in
the evening or on week end. Even during evening only an hour or two can be used
for interviews and hence, the work may have to be continued for a long time, or a
large number of people may have to be employed which may involve huge expenses.
Conclusion:
Though there are some demerits in this method of data collection still we cannot say that
it is not useful. The matter of fact is that this method is suitable for intensive rather than
extensive field surveys. Hence, it should be used only in those cases where intensive
study of a limited field is desired.
In the present time of extreme advancement in the communication system, the
investigator instead of going personally and conducting a face to face interview may also
obtain information over telephone. A good number of surveys are being conducted every
day by newspapers and television channels by sending the reply either by e-mail or SMS.
This method has become very popular nowadays as it is less expensive and the response
is extremely quick. But this method suffers from some serious defects, such as (a) those
who own a phone or a television only can be approached by this method, (b) only few
questions can be asked over phone or through television, (c) the respondents may give
a vague and reckless answers because answers on phone or through SMS would have to
be very short.
Demerits:
1. This method can be adopted only where the informants are literates so that they can
understand written questions and lend the answers in writing.
2. It involves some uncertainty about the response. Co-operation on the part of
informants may be difficult to presume.
3. The information provided by the informants may not be correct and it may be difficult
to verify the accuracy.
However, by following the guidelines given below, this method can be made more
effective:
The questionnaires should be made in such a manner that they do not become an undue
burden on the respondents; otherwise the respondents may not return them back.
i. Prepaid postage stamp should be affixed
ii. The sample should be large
iii. It should be adopted in such enquiries where it is expected that the respondents
would return the questionnaire because of their own interest in the enquiry.
iv. It should be preferred in such enquiries where there could be a legal compulsion
to provide the information.
5. Schedules Sent Through Enumerators:
Another method of data collection is sending schedules through the enumerators or
interviewers. The enumerators contact the informants, get replies to the questions
contained in a schedule and fill them in their own handwriting in the questionnaire form.
There is difference between questionnaire and schedule. Questionnaire refers to a device
for securing answers to questions by using a form which the respondent fills in him self,
whereas schedule is the name usually applied to a set of questions which are asked in a
face-to face situation with another person. This method is free from most of the
limitations of the mailed questionnaire method.
Merits:
The main merits or advantages of this method are listed below:
1. It can be adopted in those cases where informants are illiterate.
2. There is very little scope of non-response as the enumerators go personally to obtain
the information.
3. The information received is more reliable as the accuracy of statements can be checked
by supplementary questions wherever necessary.
This method too like others is not free from defects or limitations. The main limitations
are listed below:
Demerits:
1. In comparison to other methods of collecting primary data, this method is quite costly
as enumerators are generally paid persons.
2. The success of the method depends largely upon the training imparted to the
enumerators.
3. Interviewing is a very skilled work and it requires experience and training. Many
statisticians have the tendency to neglect this extremely important part of the data
collecting process and this result in bad interviews. Without good interviewing most
of the information collected may be of doubtful value.
4. Interviewing is not only a skilled work but it also requires a great degree of politeness
and thus the way the enumerators conduct the interview would affect the data
collected. When questions are asked by a number of different interviewers, it is
possible that variations in the personalities of the interviewers will cause variation in
the answers obtained. This variation will not be obvious. Hence, every effort must be
made to remove as much of variation as possible due to different interviewers.
Secondary Data:
As stated earlier, secondary data are those data which have already been collected and
analyzed by some earlier agency for its own use, and later the same data are used by a
different agency. According to W.A.Neiswanger, “A primary source is a publication in
which the data are published by the same authority which gathered and analyzed them.
A secondary source is a publication, reporting the data which was gathered by other
authorities and for which others are responsible.”
1. Published Sources:
The governmental, international and local agencies publish statistical data, and chief
among them are explained below:
(a) International Publications:
There are some international institutions and bodies like I.M.F, I.B.R.D, I.C.A.F.E
and U.N.O who publish regular and occasional reports on economic and statistical
matters.
(b) Official Publications of Central and State Governments:
Several departments of the Central and State Governments regularly publish
reports on a number of subjects. They gather additional information. Some of the
important publications are: The Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, Census of India,
Statistical Abstracts of States, Agricultural Statistics of India, Indian Trade Journal,
etc.
(c) Semi-Official Publications:
Semi-Government institutions like Municipal Corporations, District Boards,
Panchayats, etc. Publish reports relating to different matters of public concern.
(d) Publications of Research Institutions:
Indian Statistical Institute (I.S.I), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (I.C.A.R),
Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (I.A.S.R.I), etc. Publish the findings
of their research programmes.
Publications of various Commercial and Financial Institutions Reports of various
Committees and Commissions appointed by the Government as the Raj
Committee’s Report on Agricultural Taxation, Wanchoo Committee’s Report on
Taxation and Black Money, etc. Are also important sources of secondary data.
(e) Journals and News Papers:
Journals and News Papers are very important and powerful source of secondary
data. Current and important materials on statistics and socio-economic problems
can be obtained from journals and newspapers like Economic Times, Commerce,
Capital, Indian Finance, Monthly Statistics of trade etc.
2. Unpublished Sources:
Unpublished data can be obtained from many unpublished sources like records
maintained by various government and private offices, the theses of the numerous
research scholars in the universities or institutions etc.
Summary:
There are two types of data, primary and secondary. Data which are collected first hand
are called Primary data and data which have already been collected and used by
somebody are called Secondary data. There are two methods of collecting data: (a)
Survey method or total enumeration method and (b) Sample method. When a researcher
goes for investigating all the units of the subject, it is called as survey method. On the
other hand if he/she resorts to investigating only a few units of the subject and gives the
result on the basis of that, it is known as sample survey method. There are different
sources of collecting Primary and Secondary data. Some of the important sources of
Primary data are—Direct Personal Interviews, Indirect Oral Interviews, Information from
Correspondents, Mailed questionnaire method, Schedules sent through enumerators and
so on. Though all these sources or methods of Primary data have their relative merits
and demerits, a researcher should use a particular method with lot of care. There are
basically two sources of collecting secondary data- (a) Published sources and (b)
Unpublished sources. Published sources are like publications of different government and
semi-government departments, research institutions and agencies etc. Whereas
unpublished sources are like records maintained by different government departments
and unpublished theses of different universities etc. Editing of secondary data is
necessary for different purposes as – editing for completeness, editing for consistency,
editing for accuracy and editing for homogeneity.
It is always a tough task for the researcher to choose between primary and secondary
data. Though primary data are more authentic and accurate, time, money and labor
involved in obtaining these more often prompt the researcher to go for the secondary
data. There are certain amount of doubt about its authenticity and suitability, but after
the arrival of many government and semi government agencies and some private
institutions in the field of data collection, most of the apprehensions in the mind of the
researcher have been removed.
9 Cross Checks:
The questionnaire should be so designed as to provide internal checks on the accuracy
of the information supplied by the respondents by including some connected questions
at least with respect to matters which are fundamental to the enquiry.
10 Pre Testing The Questionnaire:
It would be practical in every sense to try out the questionnaire on a small scale before
using it for the given enquiry on a large scale. This has been found extremely useful in
practice. The given questionnaire can be improved or modified in the light of the
drawbacks, shortcomings and problems faced by the investigator in the pre test.
11 A Covering Letter:
A covering letter from the organizers of the enquiry should be enclosed along with the
questionnaire for the purposes regarding definitions, units, concepts used in the
questionnaire, for taking the respondent’s confidence, self addressed envelop in case of
mailed questionnaire, mention about award or incentives for the quick response, a
promise to send a copy of the survey report etc.
SAMPLING
Though sampling is not new, the sampling theory has been developed recently. People
knew or not but they have been using the sampling technique in their day to day life. For
example a house wife tests a small quantity of rice to see whether it has been well-cooked
and gives the generalized result about the whole rice boiling in the vessel. The result
arrived at is most of the times 100% correct. In another example, when a doctor wants
to examine the blood for any deficiency, takes only a few drops of blood of the patient
and examines. The result arrived at is most of the times correct and represent the whole
amount of blood available in the body of the patient. In all these cases, by inspecting a
few, they simply believe that the samples give a correct idea about the population. Most
of our decision are based on the examination of a few items only i.e. Sample studies. In
the words of Croxton and Cowdon, “It may be too expensive or too time consuming to
attempt either a complete or a nearly complete coverage in a statistical study. Further to
arrive at valid conclusions, it may not be necessary to enumerate all or nearly all of a
population. We may study a sample drawn from the large population and if that sample
is adequately representative of the population, we should be able to arrive at valid
conclusions.”
According to Rosander, “The sample has many advantages over a census or complete
enumeration. If carefully designed, the sample is not only considerably cheaper but may
give results which are just accurate and sometimes more accurate than those of a census.
Hence a carefully designed sample may actually be better than a poorly planned and
executed census.”
Merits:
1. It saves time:
Sampling method of data collection saves time because fewer items are collected and
processed. When the results are urgently required, this method is very helpful.
2. It reduces cost:
Since only a few and selected items are studied in sampling, there is reduction in cost of
money and reduction in terms of man hours.
3. More reliable results can be obtained:
Through sampling, more reliable results can be obtained because (a) there are fewer
chances of sampling statistical errors. If there is sampling error, it is possible to estimate
and control the results.(b) Highly experienced and trained persons can be employed for
scientific processing and analyzing of relatively limited data and they can use their high
technical knowledge and get more accurate and reliable results.
4. It provides more detailed information:
As it saves time, money and labor, more detail information can be collected in a sample
survey.
5. Sometimes only sampling method to depend upon:
Sometimes it so happens that one has to depend upon sampling method alone because
if the population under study is finite, sampling method is the only method to be used.
For example, if someone’s blood has to be examined, it will become fatal to take all the
blood out from the body and study depending upon the total enumeration method.
6. Administrative convenience:
The organization and administration of sample survey are easy for the reasons which
have been discussed earlier.
7. More scientific:
Since the methods used to collect data are based on scientific theory and results obtained
can be tested, sampling is a more scientific method of collecting data.
It is not that sampling is free from demerits or shortcomings. There are certain
shortcomings of this method which are discussed below:
1. Illusory conclusion:
If a sample enquiry is not carefully planned and executed, the conclusions may be
inaccurate and misleading.
2. Sample Not Representative:
To make the sample representative is a difficult task. If a representative sample is taken
from the universe, the result is applicable to the whole population. If the sample is not
representative of the universe the result may be false and misleading.
3. Lack Of Experts:
As there are lack of experts to plan and conduct a sample survey, its execution and
analysis, and its results would be
Unsatisfactory and not trustworthy.
4. Sometimes More Difficult Than Census Method:
Sometimes the sampling plan may be complicated and requires more money, labor and
time than a census method.
5. Personal Bias:
There may be personal biases and prejudices with regard to the choice of technique and
drawing of sampling units.
6. Choice Of Sample Size:
If the size of the sample is not appropriate then it may lead to untrue characteristics of
the population.
7. Conditions Of Complete Coverage:
If the information is required for each and every item of the universe, then a complete
enumeration survey is better.
Essentials of sampling:
In order to reach a clear conclusion, the sampling should possess the following essentials:
1. It must be representative:
The sample selected should possess the similar characteristics of the original universe
from which it has been drawn.
2. Homogeneity:
Selected samples from the universe should have similar nature and should mot have any
difference when compared with the universe.
3. Adequate samples:
In order to have a more reliable and representative result, a good number of items are
to be included in the sample.
4. Optimization:
All efforts should be made to get maximum results both in terms of cost as well as
efficiency. If the size of the sample is larger, there is better efficiency and at the same
time the cost is more. A proper size of sample is maintained in order to have optimized
results in terms of cost and efficiency.
UNIT 6: STATISTICAL LAWS
LECTURER: MR. KIKAMBI JOHN BOSCO
STATISTICAL LAWS
One of the basic reasons for undertaking a sample survey is to predict and generalize the
results for the population as a whole. The logical process of drawing general conclusions
from a study of representative items is called induction. In statistics, induction is a
generalization of facts on the assumption that the results provided by an adequate sample
may be taken as applicable to the whole. The fact that the characteristics of the sample
provide a fairly good idea about the population characteristics is borne out by the theory
of probability. Sampling is based on two fundamental principles of statistics theory viz,
(i) the Law of Statistical Regularity and (ii) the Law of Inertia of Large Numbers.
THE LAW OF STATISTICAL REGULARITY
The Law of Statistical Regularity is derived from the mathematical theory of probability.
According to W.I.King, “the Law of Statistical Regularity formulated in the mathematical
theory of probability lays down that a moderately large number of items chosen at
random from a very large group are almost sure to have the characteristics of the large
group.” For example, if we want to find out the average income of 10,000 people, we
take a sample of 100 people and find the average. Suppose another person takes another
sample of 100 people from the same population and finds the average, the average
income found out by both the persons will have the least difference. On the other hand
if the average income of the same 10,000 people is found out by the census method, the
result will be more or less the same.
Characteristics
1. The item selected will represent the universe and the result is generalized to
universe as a whole.
2. Since sample size is large, it is representative of the universe.
3. There is a very remote chance of bias.
LAW OF INERTIA OF LARGE NUMBERS
The Law of inertia of Large Numbers is an immediate deduction from the Principle of
Statistical Regularity. Law of Inertia of Large Numbers states, “Other things being equal,
as the sample size increases, the results tend to be more reliable and accurate.” This is
based on the fact that the behavior or a phenomenon en masse. I.e., on a large scale is
generally stable. It implies that the total change is likely to be very small, when a large
number or items are taken in a sample. The law will be true on an average. If sufficient
large samples are taken from the patent population, the reverse movements of different
parts in the same will offset by the corresponding movements of some other parts.
Sampling Errors:
In a sample survey, since only a small portion of the population is studied its results are
bound to differ from the census results and thus, have a certain amount of error. In
statistics the word error is used to denote the difference between the true value and the
estimated or approximated value. This error would always be there no matter that the
sample is drawn at random and that it is highly representative. This error is attributed to
fluctuations of sampling and is called sampling error. Sampling error exist due to the fact
that only a sub set of the population has been used to estimate the population parameters
and draw inferences about the population. Thus, sampling error is present only in a
sample survey and is completely absent in census method.
Sampling errors occur primarily due to the following reasons:
1. Faulty selection of the sample:
Some of the bias is introduced by the use of defective sampling technique for the selection
of a sample e.g. Purposive or judgment sampling in which the investigator deliberately
selects a representative sample to obtain certain results. This bias can be easily overcome
by adopting the technique of simple random sampling.
2. Substitution:
When difficulties arise in enumerating a particular sampling unit included in the random
sample, the investigators usually substitute a convenient member of the population. This
obviously leads to some bias since the characteristics possessed by the substituted unit
will usually be different from those possessed by the unit originally included in the sample.
3. Faulty demarcation of sampling units:
Bias due to defective demarcation of sampling units is particularly significant in area
surveys such as agricultural experiments in the field of crop cutting surveys etc. In such
surveys, while dealing with border line cases, it depends more or less on the discretion
of the investigator whether to include them in the sample or not.
4. Error due to bias in the estimation method:
Sampling method consists in estimating the parameters of the population by appropriate
statistics computed from the sample. Improper choice of the estimation techniques might
introduce the error.
5. Variability of the population:
Sampling error also depends on the variability or heterogeneity of the population to be
sampled.
Sampling errors are of two types: Biased Errors and Unbiased Errors
Biased Errors:
The errors that occur due to a bias of prejudice on the part of the informant or enumerator
in selecting, estimating measuring instruments are called biased errors. Suppose for
example, the enumerator uses the deliberate sampling method in the place of simple
random sampling method, then it is called biased errors. These errors are cumulative in
nature and increase when the sample size also increases. These errors arise due to defect
in the methods of collection of data, defect in the method of organization of data and
defect in the method of analysis of data.
Unbiased Errors:
Errors which occur in the normal course of investigation or enumeration on account of
chance are called unbiased errors. They may arise accidentally without any bias or
prejudice. These errors occur due to faulty planning of statistical investigation.
To avoid these errors, the statistician must take proper precaution and care in using the
correct measuring instrument. He must see that the enumerators are also not biased.
Unbiased errors can be removed with the proper planning of statistical investigations.
Both these errors should be avoided by the statisticians.
Reducing Sampling Errors:
Errors in sampling can be reduced if the size of sample is increased. This is shown in the
following diagram.
From the above diagram it is clear that when the size of the sample increases, sampling
error decreases. And by this process samples can be made more representatives to the
population.
Testing of hypothesis:
As a part of investigation, samples are drawn from the population and results are derived
to help in taking the decisions. But such decisions involve an element of uncertainty
causing wrong decisions. Hypothesis is an assumption which may or may not be true
about a population parameter. For example, if we toss a coin 200 times, we may get 110
heads and 90 tails.
At this instance, we are interested in testing whether the coin is unbiased or not.
Therefore, we may conduct a test to judge the significance of the difference of sampling
or otherwise. To carry out a test of significance, the following procedure has to be
followed:
1. Framing the Hypothesis:
To verify the assumption, which is based on sample study, we collect data and find out
the difference between the sample value and the population value. If there is no
difference found or the difference is very small then the hypothetical value is correct.
Generally two hypotheses complementary to each offer are constructed, and if one is
found correct, the other is rejected.
The alternative hypothesis (i) is known as a two-tailed alternative and the alternatives in
(ii) and (iii) are known as right-tailed and left-tailed alternatives. Accordingly, the
corresponding tests of significance are called two-tailed, right-tailed and left-tailed tests
respectively.
The null hypothesis consists of only a single parameter value and is usually simple while
alternative hypothesis is usually composite.