David 1964
David 1964
David 1964
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velopment of new technology and its adoption; (4) the economy bene-
fits from preferential capital gains taxation by increased economic
growth.
While this line of argument may satisfy a few economists who do
not choose to look beyond a partial equilibriumanalysis, I question its
significance. What quantitative effects on growth can we attribute to
preferential taxation? What benefits do we get from this indirect tax
device as compared to other actions to stimulate growth? Let us ex-
amine the links in the chain of argumentone by one.
First, capital gains taxation increases the volume of savings as it
discriminatesin favor of savings accumulatedin assets privileged to the
low tax. To evaluate this argumentwe must recall that this tax provides
for far more than a marginal change in rate of return. The tax has sig-
nificant income as well as substitution effects. The taxes that investors
avoid by the capital gains loophole reduce both the average rate of tax-
ation and the marginal rate applicable to capital gains. Households will
be sensitive to the difference.They will adjust work effort, consumption,
and saving in noneligible forms of investment in response to adjustments
in their income. What clues do we have as to the outcome? Break sug-
gests that for high-income groups the effective tax rate may have little
to do with work effort [4]. But that analysis speaks for the behavior of
a limited group of professional types; we can only guess about the re-
sponse of lower-echelon corporate executives and owners of small busi-
nesses to lower effective tax rates. Do they retire early, turn down post-
retirement jobs, or work shorter hours because of increases in disposa-
ble income?
Let us assume, on balance, adjustments in work effort for investors
are unimportant. What else can be said about investor's behavior?
If work effort remains constant, lower average taxes mean more dis-
posable income for the investor in capital gains; in addition low mar-
ginal taxes on additional earnings in the form of capital gains will
influence the investor's choices. Greater disposable income may be
entirely consumed, but that is most unlikely. Preferential capital gains
taxation implies greater savings among investors, provided that saving
responds elastically to increases in yield. (While this seems likely,
if target saving occurs on a sufficiently wide scale, net saving may be
interest inelastic.) The corollary of increased savings in eligible assets
surely is relatively less savings in ineligible forms. Relatively fewer
dollars are invested in savings accounts, while more dollars are in-
vested in mutual funds and stocks.
In addition to changing the volume of savings capital gains taxation
will also have an effect on the portfolio that the saver demands.
Changeover from uniform income taxation to a preferential tax for
months will hold their assets for another eighteen months to take ad-
vantage of the more preferred rate [9]. The shrewd tax dodger who
contemplates holding his appreciated assets until death will still be
locked-in to his investment. (Admittedly he may be relieved of a
psychic burden by the fact that taxes will be applied with a 40 percent
rate of inclusion or a maximum of 21 percent tax rather than rates
applicable under the existing law, but the fact remains that complete
avoidance of tax still looks better than a 21 percent tax.)
The tax avoidance effects of capital gains taxation can only be
eliminated by taxing transactions on capital assets on the same basis
as ordinary income and eliminating the possibility of discretionary
postponement of tax by some system of accrual taxation or the recog-
nition of interest due on deferred tax liability. The Congress has
moved in the opposite direction on both counts. The new law will in-
crease the rate differential between many capital transactions and
ordinary income transactions. The new law will increase the scope for
avoiding the tax altogether by granting exemption from the tax to
certain elderly persons who sell their homes. To my knowledge no
analysis by the Administration or the Congress indicates that the pro-
posed changes in law would provide desirable economic effects in the
areas of growth, stabilization, or economic efficiency. Neither can the
equity of the proposed changes be defended. If new law goes into
effect, the scope for tax avoidance will be enlarged, the differential
between actual and nominal tax rates will remain. Taxpayer morale
will continue to wilt and the economy will continue to bear an enor-
mous burden of tax compliance costs.
To summarize,preferential capital gains taxation in its present form
is destabilizing. Whether full taxation would increase the stabilizing
process of the tax system depends on resulting changes in asset price
movements. The impact of preferential capital gains taxation on effi-
ciency is determined by a balance between real tax avoidance costs
and real economic growth that the tax may facilitate. However, it is
unclear that real economic growth induced by the tax is of any appre-
ciable magnitude. The overall impact of taxation on the amount of
saving is not known. If there is a strong effect on saving, it is unclear
how that effect will be mirrored in new investments. Much of the
saving can be absorbed in increasing asset prices. How such changes
might ultimately stimulate investment is still in the realm of contro-
versy [19]. And even if increases in investments undertaken because
of preferential taxation were to amount to as much as $1 billion a year,
the change in our rate of economic growth would be negligible. The link
between preferential capital gains taxation and important quantitative
effects on our country's growth thus appears to be one that must be
demonstrated,not merely asserted.