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CAT#C2654_TitlePage 7/2/03 9:41 AM Page 1
Statistical Inference
and Simulation
for Spatial Point
Processes
Jesper Møller
Rasmus Plenge Waagepetersen
Møller, Jesper.
Statistical inference and simulation for spatial point processes / Jesper Møller and
Rasmus Plenge Waagepetersen.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 1-58488-265-4 (alk. paper)
1. Point processes. 2. Spatial analysis (Statistics) I. Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge. II.
Title.
QA274.42.M65 2003
519.2¢3—dc22 2003058463
This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material
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Preface
Acknowledgments
4 Summary statistics
4.1 First and second order properties
4.1.1 Basic definitions and results
8 Simulation-based inference
8.1 Monte Carlo methods and output analysis
App endices
References
Spatial point processes are used to model point patterns where the points
typically are positions or centres of objects in a two- or three-dimensional
region. The points may be decorated with marks (such as sizes or types
of the objects) whereby marked point processes are obtained. The areas
of applications are manifold and include astronomy, ecology, forestry,
geography, image analysis, and spatial epidemiology. For more than 30
years spatial point processes have been a major area of research in spa-
tial statistics, see e.g. Ripley (1977, 1981), Diggle (1983), Cressie (1993),
Stoyan & Stoyan (1994), Stoyan, Kendall & Mecke (1995), and van
Lieshout (2000). We expect that research in spatial point processes will
continue to be of importance as new technology makes huge amounts of
spatial point process data available and new applications emerge.
Some of the earliest applications of computational methods in statis-
tics are related to spatial point processes, cf. the historical account in
Section A.1. In the last decade computational methods, and particu-
larly Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, have undergone
major developments. However, general textbooks on MCMC and sta-
tistical applications contain very little material associated with spatial
point processes. The recent survey papers by Geyer (1999) and Møller
& Waagepetersen (2003) and the book by van Lieshout (2000) contain
material on MCMC methods for spatial point processes, but a more com-
prehensive book which collects and unifies recent theoretical advances
and shows examples of applications in simulation-based inference for
spatial point process seems missing.
This book aims at filling this gap; it is concerned with simulation-
based inference for spatial point processes, with an emphasis on MCMC
methods. It should be accessible for a fairly general readership interested
in spatial models, including senior undergraduate students and Ph.D.
students in statistics, experienced statisticians, and applied probabilists.
Moreover, researchers working with complex stochastic systems in e.g.
environmental statistics, ecology, and materials science may benefit from
reading the parts of the book concerned with the statistical aspects.
A substantial part of the book consists of statistical methodology,
simulation studies, and examples of statistical analysis of the different
datasets introduced in Chapter 1. The book provides further a detailed
Jesper Møller
Rasmus Plenge Waagepetersen
Aalborg, Denmark.
Example 1.1 (Hickory trees) Figure 1.1 shows the positions of 85 hick-
ory trees in an 120 by 120m square subset of the Bormann research plot
in Duke Forest in Durham, North Carolina. This data set which served
as an example in Wolpert & Ickstadt (1998) is a subset of a much larger
data set including 7859 trees of 38 species, which was initially collected
in 1951–52 by Bormann and updated in 1974, 1982, 1989, and 1993 by N.
Christensen, R. Peet and members of the Duke University and University
of North Carolina botany departments in a continuing study of forest
maturation (Bormann 1953, Christensen 1977). The trees in Figure 1.1
seem to aggregate, possibly due to environmental conditions which we
later model by an unobserved intensity process (Chapters 5 and 10).
Example 1.2 (Amacrine cells) The points in Figure 1.2 show amacrine
cell centres observed in a rectangular area within the retinal ganglion
cell layer of a rabbit. There are 152 “on” cells and 142 “off” cells, corre-
sponding to cells which process “light-on” and “light-off” information.
The observation window is scaled to [0, 1.6065] × [0, 1]. Compared to the
point pattern in Figure 1.1, the two point patterns in Figure 1.2 seem
more regular, possibly due to a repulsive behaviour between the points.
Scientific hypotheses of interest are whether the two types of points can
be regarded as realisations of independent point processes, and whether
the division of cells into “on” respective “off” cells is completely random
given the positions of the cells. For details, see Wässle, Boycott & Illing
(1981) and Diggle (1986).
The amacrine cell data is an example of a multitype (or bivariate)
point pattern, and it is analysed in Diggle (1986) and van Lieshout &
Baddeley (1999) using nonparametric summary statistics (Chapter 4).
• • •
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•
•
• •
•
•
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•
•
• •
• •
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• •
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• • • ••
• • •
Figure 1.2 Amacrine “on” (crosses) and “off ” (circles) cell centres.
Figure 1.3 Mucous membrane ECL (crosses) and other (circles) cell centres.
Example 1.4 (Norwegian spruces) Figure 1.4 shows 134 discs, where
the centres are the positions of Norwegian spruces observed in a rect-
angular window of size 56 × 38m, and the radii are the stem diameters
multiplied by 5. As discussed in Penttinen, Stoyan & Henttonen (1992)
and Goulard, Särkkä & Grabarnik (1996) the “influence zone” of a tree
is about five times the stem diameter. The discs can be modelled by a
so-called marked point process (Section 2.2). The data has been analysed
in Fiksel (1984a), Penttinen et al. (1992), Stoyan et al. (1995), Goulard
et al. (1996), and Møller & Waagepetersen (2003) using different Markov
marked point process models (Chapters 6 and 9).
Example 1.5 (Weed) In this example the points are positions of 976
Trifolium spp. (clover) and 406 Veronica spp. (speedwell) weed plants
observed within 45 metal frames on a Danish barley field. The 45 frames
are of size 30×20cm and organised in 9 groups, each containing 5 frames,
where the vertical and horizontal distances between two neighbouring
Figure 1.4 Norwegian spruces. The radii of the discs equal 5 times the stem
diameters.
groups are 1 and 1.5m, respectively, see Figure 1.5. The size of the ex-
perimental area is 7.5 × 5m, where the longest side is parallel with the
ploughing direction. The weed plant positions are shown in Figure 1.6
where we have rotated the design 90◦ and omitted some space between
the frames. Note the trend in the point pattern of Trifolium spp. weed
plants: in general more plants occur in the upper frames, i.e. the frames
to the left in Figure 1.6.
5.0 m
7.5 m
xB = x ∩ B
Elements of Nlf are called locally finite point configurations, and they
will be denoted by x, y, . . ., while ξ, η, . . . will denote points in S. The
empty point configuration is denoted ∅. We shall abuse notation and
write x ∪ ξ for x ∪ {ξ}, x \ η for x \ {η}, etc., when x ∈ Nlf and ξ, η ∈ S.
2.3 Unified framework for p oint pro cesses and marked p oint
pro cesses
In this book we distinguish between point processes on S ⊆ Rd and
marked point processes with points in T ⊆ Rd . However, both types
of processes as well as point processes on non-Euclidian spaces can be
handled in a unified framework where S is a general metric space, see
Appendix B (for a marked point process as in Section 2.2, S = T × M ).
We denote the metric d(·, ·), and for ξ ∈ S and r ≥ 0, we let
b(ξ, r) = {η ∈ S : d(ξ, η) ≤ r}
denote the closed ball in S with centre ξ and radius r. Examples of
metrics are given in Appendix B. When S ⊆ Rd , we let always, unless
otherwise stated, d(ξ, η) = ξ − η be the usual Euclidian distance.
For the mathematical treatment of point processes we equip S and Nlf
with appropriate σ-algebras denoted B and Nlf , respectively (for details,
see Section B.2). Readers unfamiliar with measure theory may just think
of B and Nlf as very large families of subsets of S and Nlf . We shall often
just write B ⊆ S and F ⊆ Nlf when we mean B ∈ B and F ∈ Nlf .
Appendix B contains some useful characterisation and uniqueness re-
3.1.1 Definitions
This measure is locally finite, i.e. µ(B) < ∞ for bounded B ⊆ S, and
diffuse, i.e. µ({ξ}) = 0 for ξ ∈ S. For readers familiar with measure
theory it should be obvious how many of the definitions and results in
this chapter extend to a general metric space S as in Appendix B and a
locally finite diffuse measure µ on S.
Proposition 3.1
(i) X ∼ Poisson(S, ρ) if and only if for all B ⊆ S
with µ(B) = S ρ(ξ)dξ < ∞ and all F ⊆ Nlf ,
P (XB ∈ F )
∞
n
exp(−µ(B))
= ··· 1[{x1 , . . . , xn } ∈ F ] ρ(xi )dx1 · · · dxn
n=0
n! B B i=1
(3.2)
where the integral for n = 0 is read as 1[∅ ∈ F ].
(ii) If X ∼ Poisson(S, ρ), then for functions h : Nlf → [0, ∞) and B ⊆ S
with µ(B) < ∞,
E h(XB )
∞ n
exp(−µ(B))
= ··· h({x1 , . . . , xn }) ρ(xi )dx1 · · · dxn .
n=0
n! B B i=1
(3.3)
Proof. (i) follows immediately from (i) and (ii) in Definition 3.2. (i) and
the standard proof imply (ii).
This is the void probability for a Poisson process with intensity measure
µ, so the existence and uniqueness follow from Section 2.3 (or Theo-
rem B.1 in Section B.3).
By Theorem 3.1, Definition 3.2 states more than needed for charac-
terising a Poisson process. However, as seen in the proof of Theorem 3.1
and many places in the sequel, (i) and (ii) in Definition 3.2 provide an
easy construction of a Poisson process. Sometimes in the literature, (ii)
is replaced by the condition that N (B1 ), . . . , N (Bn ) are independent for
disjoint sets B1 , . . . , Bn ⊆ S and n ≥ 2. This property is called indepen-
dent scattering. It can be extended as follows.
P (N (B) = 0)
∞
= P (N (B) = 0|N (b(0, r) = n)P (N (b(0, r) = n)
n=0
∞
= (|b(0, r) \ B|/|b(0, r)|)n exp(−ρ|b(0, r)|)(ρ|b(0, r)|)n /n!
n=0
= exp(ρ|b(0, r) \ B| − ρ|b(0, r)|) = exp(−ρ|B|).
We verify now (i) and (ii).† For a fixed n ∈ N, the joint density of
(S1 , U1 , . . . , Sn , Un ) is
† Readers who are unfamiliar with measure theory may prefer to skip this part of
the proof.
(where the left hand side is finite if and only if the right hand side is
finite).
Consider next the general case.† If we can prove (3.7) when h(ξ, x) =
1[(ξ, x) ∈ F ], F ⊆ S × Nlf , is an indicator function, then by the standard
proof, (3.7) is satisfied for any nonnegative function h. The left and
right sides in (3.7) both become measures on S × Nlf when we consider
indicator functions h(ξ, x) = 1[(ξ, x) ∈ F ], F ⊆ S × Nlf , and they are
both equal to EN (B) = B ρ(ξ)dξ if h(ξ, x) = 1[(ξ, x) ∈ B × Nlf ] for
bounded B ⊆ S. By Lemma B.4 in Section B.3, we thus just need to
verify (3.7) when h is of the form
h(ξ, x) = 1[ξ ∈ C, n(xA ) = 0], bounded A, C ⊆ S. (3.8)
But this follows from the first part of the proof, since B = A ∪ C is
bounded and ρ is locally integrable.
† Readers who are unfamiliar with measure theory may prefer to skip this part of
the proof.
where the = over the summation sign means that the n points ξ1 , . . . , ξn
are pairwise distinct.
Proof. For n = 1, (3.7) and (3.9) obviously agree. For n ≥ 2, consider
=
h̃(ξ, x) = h(ξ, ξ2 , . . . , ξn , x \ {ξ2 , . . . , ξn }).
ξ2 ,...,ξn ∈x
By (3.7) and the induction hypothesis, the left hand side in (3.9) is equal
to
E h̃(ξ, X \ ξ) = Eh̃(ξ, X)ρ(ξ)dξ
ξ∈X S
= ··· Eh(ξ, ξ2 , . . . , ξn , X)ρ(ξ2 ) · · · ρ(ξn )dξ2 · · · dξn ρ(ξ)dξ
S S S
Proof. The first part can easily be verified using Proposition 3.1 and
considering two independent Poisson processes within a bounded ball
B which expands to S; it is also verified in the Disjointness Lemma in
Kingman (1993). The second part follows from Theorem 3.1: for bounded
B ⊆ S,
∞
∞
P (XB = ∅) = P (Xi ∩ B = ∅) = exp(−µi (B)) = exp(−µ(B))
i=1 i=1
where µi (B) = B ρi (ξ)dξ.
= exp(−µthin (C)).
By symmetry,
P ((X \ Xthin ) ∩ C = ∅) = exp(−(µ − µthin )(C)).
The result now follows by Proposition 3.2: for bounded A, B ⊆ S,
P (Xthin ∩ A = ∅, (X \ Xthin ) ∩ B = ∅)
=P (X ∩ A ∩ B = ∅)P (Xthin ∩ (A \ B) = ∅)P ((X \ Xthin ) ∩ (B \ A) = ∅)
= exp(−µ(A ∩ B) − µthin (A \ B) − (µ − µthin )(B \ A))
whereby (3.10) is obtained.
The following corollary shows that inhomogeneous Poisson processes
often can be derived by thinning a homogeneous Poisson process.
Proposition 3.8
(i) For any numbers ρ1 > 0 and ρ2 > 0, Poisson(Rd , ρ1 ) is absolutely
continuous with respect to Poisson(Rd , ρ2 ) if and only if ρ1 = ρ2 .
(ii) For i = 1, 2, suppose that ρi : S → [0, ∞) so that µi (S) = S ρi (ξ)dξ
is finite, and that ρ2 (ξ) > 0 whenever ρ1 (ξ) > 0. Then Poisson(S, ρ1 )
is absolutely continuous with respect to Poisson(S, ρ2 ), with density
f (x) = exp(µ2 (S) − µ1 (S)) ρ1 (ξ)/ρ2 (ξ) (3.11)
ξ∈x
Proof. (i) The “if” part is trivial. Assume that ρ1 = ρ2 . Consider dis-
i m⊆ R with |Ai | = 1, i = 1, 2, . . ., and let Fd = {x ∈
d
joint subsets A
Nlf : limm→∞ i=1 n(x ∩ Ai )/m = ρ1 }. Under both Poisson(R , ρ1 ) and
Poisson(Rd , ρ2 ), the N (Ai ) are i.i.d. but with means ρ1 and ρ2 , respec-
tively. Hence, by the strong law of large numbers, P (X1 ∈ F ) = 1 but
P (X2 ∈ F ) = 0.
(ii) IfY is Poisson(S, ρ2 ), we have to verify that P (X ∈ F ) = E 1[Y ∈
F ]f (Y ) for F ⊆ Nlf . This is straightforwardly derived from Proposi-
tion 3.1.
. . . . .
.
. .
. . . . .
. . .. .
. .. .
. .
. . .
. . .. .
. . . . . .
. . . . . .
.
. . . . . .
. .
. . . ..
. . .
. . . .
. . . . . .. .
.. . .. .
.
.. .. . .
. . .
. . . . .
.. .
. . . .
.. . .. . . .
. .
. . . .
. . .. .
. . .. .
. . . . .
. . .
.
where the last equality follows from (i). The result now follows from
Theorem 3.1.
Summary statistics
This chapter surveys the most commonly used summary statistics for
point processes and multitype point processes in the homogeneous as
well as the inhomogeneous case. Exploratory analysis for spatial point
patterns and the validation of fitted models are often based on nonpara-
metric estimates of various summary statistics. For example, the initial
step of a point process analysis often consists of looking for discrepan-
cies with a Poisson model using nonparametric estimates of summary
statistics.
Section 4.1 deals with characteristics describing the first and second
order properties of a point process, particularly intensity and pair corre-
lation functions and second order reduced moment measures. Section 4.2
focuses on summary statistics for second order properties (such as the
so-called K and L-functions, and including the anisotropic case) and
summary statistics based on interpoint distances (such as the so-called
F , G, and J-functions). Section 4.3 concerns nonparametric estimation
of summary statistics and contains some examples of applications; many
other examples are given in the other chapters of this book. Sections 4.4–
4.5 concern summary statistics for multivariate and marked point pro-
cesses. The more technical part related to this chapter is deferred to
Appendix C.
Further material on summary statistics can be found in Stoyan &
Stoyan (1994, 2000), Baddeley & Gill (1997), Ohser & Mücklich (2000),
and the references therein. The application of many of the summary
statistics in this chapter requires some sort of stationarity assumption.
We therefore consider point processes (or marked point processes) with
points in Rd . However, in some cases we can replace Rd with a proper
subset of Rd or an arbitrary space S, cf. Appendix C.
4.1 First and second order prop erties of a p oint pro cess
Definition 4.3 If the second order factorial moment measure α(2) can
be written as
α(2) (C) = 1[(ξ, η) ∈ C]ρ(2) (ξ, η)dξdη, C ⊆ Rd × Rd ,
where ρ(2) is a nonnegative function, then ρ(2) is called the second order
product density.
Definition 4.4 If both ρ and ρ(2) exist, the pair correlation function is
defined by
ρ(2) (ξ, η)
g(ξ, η) =
ρ(ξ)ρ(η)
where we take a/0 = 0 for a ≥ 0.
and
=
E h2 (ξ, η) = h2 (ξ, η)ρ(2) (ξ, η)dξdη. (4.3)
ξ,η∈S
Proof. By the standard proof these equalities follow directly from Defi-
nitions 4.1–4.3.
where the last equality follows from (4.2). Hence ρthin (ξ) = p(ξ)ρ(ξ). It
(2)
follows in the same way that ρthin (ξ, η) = p(ξ)p(η)ρ(2) (ξ, η), and so
(2)
gthin(ξ, η) = ρthin (ξ, η)/(ρthin (ξ)ρthin (η)) = ρ(2) (ξ, η)/(ρ(ξ)ρ(η))
= g(ξ, η).
Definition 4.5 Suppose that X has intensity function ρ and that the
measure
=
1 1[ξ ∈ A, η − ξ ∈ B]
K(B) = E , B ⊆ Rd , (4.4)
|A| ρ(ξ)ρ(η)
ξ,η∈X
does not depend on the choice of A ⊆ Rd with 0 < |A| < ∞, where we
take a/0 = 0 for a ≥ 0. Then X is said to be second order intensity
reweighted stationary and K is called the second order reduced moment
measure.
Stationarity of X implies second order intensity reweighted stationar-
ity.† If the pair correlation function exists and is invariant under trans-
† This follows by some elementary measure theoretical properties: In the stationary
case where ρ is constant,
=
ν(A) = |A|ρ2 K(B) = E 1[ξ ∈ A, η − ξ ∈ B]
ξ,η∈X
This follows by applying (4.3) to the right hand side in (4.4). Note that
K is in general not translation invariant (even if X is stationary).
When the intensity ρ is constant we have that
α (B1 × B2 ) = ρ
(2) 2
K(B2 − ξ)dξ.
B1
Proof. This follows along similar lines as in the proof of Proposition 4.2.
† Here and in the following we abuse notation and denote by g also the function
which describes how the pair correlation depends on interpoint distances.
for an arbitrary set A ⊂ Rd with 0 < |A| < ∞. Finally, the J-function
is defined by
J(r) = (1 − G(r))/(1 − F (r)) for F (r) < 1. (4.10)
Example 4.1 (Intensity function for mucous cell data) Figure 4.2 shows
nonparametric estimates of the intensity function for the point pattern
in Example 1.3 when the information of point type is ignored. The band
widths used are b = 0.08, 0.12, 0.16, and 0.20. The choice b = 0.16 seems
to provide a suitable impression of the large scale variation in the point
pattern.
Proof. For simplicity assume that X has a translation invariant pair cor-
relation function g so that we can use (4.3) with ρ(2) (ξ, η) = ρ(η)ρ(ξ)g(η−
ξ). In the general case the proof is similar, using (C.2) instead of (4.3).
Letting h(ξ, η) = 1[η − ξ ∈ B]/(ρ(ξ)ρ(η)|W ∩ Wη−ξ |) in (4.3) we get
=
1[η − ξ ∈ B]
E
ρ(ξ)ρ(η)|W ∩ Wη−ξ |
ξ,η∈XW
1[ξ ∈ W, η ∈ W, η − ξ ∈ B]
= g(η − ξ)dηdξ
|W ∩ Wη−ξ |
1[ξ ∈ W ∩ W−η̃ , η̃ ∈ B]
= g(η̃)dξdη̃
|W ∩ Wη̃ |
= K(B)
using (4.5) and that |W ∩ Wη̃ | = |W ∩ W−η̃ | in the last equality.
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