Frank Herbert's Prescience: "Dune" and the Modern World

Author(s): William A. Senior

Source: Journal of the Fantastic in the Arts , Winter 2007, Vol. 17, No. 4 (68) (Winter
2007), pp. 317-320
Published by: International Association for the Fantastic in the Arts

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/44809216

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 Frank Herbert's Prescience:
Dune and the Modern World

William A. Senior

OF DUNE, COLIN MANLOVE NOTES LACONICALLY THAT "BENEATH THE SAND

lie the rich deposits of the spice on which the whole fabric of the empire
depends. The duality of aridity and richness here is almost metaphoric" (81).
While there is truth in this observation, it ignores the remarkably accurate
extrapolation set forth in the Dune series: these books are not simply
metaphoric but highly predictive. Written in 1965 before any of the oil embar-
goes of the 1970s or the wild increase in demand we have seen in the past 20
years, in the series, especially in the initial volume, Herbert foresees many of
the issues that face us most insistently today: production and price of oil, envi-
ronmental threats, the escalating instability of the Middle East, Muslim funda-
mentalism, the erosion of monolithic world powers, the failure - or
abandonment - of diplomacy, and the staggering cost in lives, money, and
materiel.
Willis E. McNelly points out the following:

The Dune series may be classified as science fiction's true epic; it can also be
construed as a thinly veiled allegory of our world's insatiable appetite for oil
and other petroleum products. (After all, Arrakis can be read as "Iraq,"
"melange" may be a metaphor for oil, and so on.) (371)

Well, yes, but in the context of the 21st century and the continuing crisis in
the Middle East that "so on" needs to be explored; and oddly enough, little lit-
erary criticism - and there's not that much on Herbert to begin with-
attempts to wrestle with the presentation of Realpolitik in the series,
particularly in the first novel.
Five years before Dune was published, oil, fuel, and gasoline simply were
not pressing concerns for most of the world; and gasoline was, in actuality, rel-

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318 • Introduction

atively inexpensive. In fact, the corporate stranglehold on oil production and

the production within the United States seemed unassailable and unchal-
lengeable. In terms of usage, as compared with the past twenty years, demand
was not an issue. Leťs remember that in the US the national highway system
was developed in the 1950s by the Eisenhower administration as a Cold War
strategy to enable rapid military response as well as to promote inter- state ship-
ping and trade, not to assuage any particular civilian need. As a result, in a
remarkable contrast with the current tangled global economic power grid,
even those nations with substantial oil resources and industries held little
power and even less cachet: "Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran
agreed to found the 'Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' on Sep-
tember 14, 1960. The event was ignored by the oil industry and went virtually
unreported in the international press" (Rustow 109). This condition lasted for
more than a decade until the early 1970s and the oil embargoes, at which
point OPEC nations ostensibly on the fringes moved directly to the center of
notice.

Until 1974, OPEC and its policies played a rather small role in international
affairs. OPEC activities had been given little space in the press, especially in
the American press. Space devoted to OPEC changed dramatically, however,
beginning in 1974, with the emergence of OPEC's role in world oil pricing.
(Zentner 96)

The Middle East had been perceived much as Arrakis in Dune as a place for
the major powers to exploit and ignore. The political machinations of the
Emperor and the Harkonnens (imperial powers - Harkonnens as the Soviet
bloc, Atreides as the American/Western), the covert manipulation of the
Guild (transportation and oil companies?), and the changes in ruling factions
recall the post WWI history of the region:

Forty years ago, the Middle East was for the most part the "property" of
Europe. In a sense, it was occupied territory. Its principalities, except for Per-
sia, were constructs of British and French diplomacy. . . . For Arabs, the end of
Ottoman domination had been followed by European rule. Then it would
have been inconceivable to imagine an uprising of Arabs which in any way
would threaten the vital interests of Europe. (Friedland 72)

We can see in this summary a mirror to the dismissive and contemptuous atti-
tude of the Imperium and the Harkonnens and the concept - grown almost to
abstraction - of the planet and its population as only crucial resources, valu-
able only because of what they can provide but not important in their own
right.

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 Introduction -319

How many people in 1965, for instance, at the height of the Cold War as
the Vietnam War began, would have paid attention to Herbert's prediction of
the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and its violent confrontation with the mod-
ern world? How many, even today, understand the difference between Sunnis
and Shia or the mysticism of Sufism or the complicated tribal politics of the
region, whether in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, or Afghanistan? We can see clearly the
parallels in Herbert's presentation of the Fremen: their culture and daily lives
are hidden from the outside so much that no one even knows what their pop-
ulation is; they hear and heed with fanatical zeal a call toward the creation of
an earthly paradise; they remember a past history of destruction and betrayal
by others;1 they resent the intrusion and arrogance of occupying powers whose
mission clashes with their desire for self-determination and control. The
Harkonnens dismiss the Fremen as "rabble" and grossly underestimate both
their commitment and military range and thus anticipate an easy victory and
rapid mission accomplished once the Atreides's power has been broken. Thus
it appears at first - until Paul's attritional guerilla warfare, the hit and run tac-
tics he learned from Gurney Halleck and Duncan Idaho, destabilizes planetary
government and the production of spice. We could easily label, as the Harkon-
nens do in a sense, as terrorists the Fremen death commandos who support
Paul Muad'Dib, the mythical Lisan al-Gaib come to life, as though he were a
contemporary imam promising glorious salvation for all willing to die for their
cause.

Of the spice Paul tells Gurney, "The people who can d

control it" (422). As a result, the various powers of the
Arrakis and Guild agents buy up all the spice they can f
in price, all to protect their investment and power. Dav
of Dune that "As in the late Renaissance, money, not lan
tom line. Thus the economic arena is where the real ba
However, this is misleading to an extent because contro
resources - oil/melange, the source of wealth - becom
ingly, in terms of the current situation in Iraq, control
the electrical infrastructure, the water system, commu
ated a tactical nightmare. The continuing sabotage of su
factions within Iraq has far-ranging effects on local and nat
power, corporate risk and commitment, the price of gas
and of course the quality of life for those living in the mid
Beyond such struggles and conflicts, what of the jih
Paul foresees raging across the galaxy and resulting in m
we not read this as a corollary prediction that if Islamic
contained within the Middle East, it will be exported to
nations? Just as the Harkonnen rule of Arrakis and th
Imperium incited Fremen resentment and hatred, so dec

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320 • Introduction

sion into the region have created a population willing to embrace such a jihad
with what seems an irrational fervor to Western minds. PauPs fear of such an
occurrence and its emergent reality over Dune Messiah and Children of Dune
foretell in a worst case scenario the potentiality, on a lesser scale, of the spread
of terrorism abroad, a frequent theme of many current right-wing jeremiads.2
To return to where I began, I am going to argue that the first three books
of the Dune series inhere to the sub -category we call cautionary sf, works with
an extrapolative intention combined with a warning of the shape of things to
come. Over 40 years ago, Frank Herbert crafted a remarkable depiction of our
time, so, read, or reread, Dune - and read it hard.

Notes
1 See 398-9, especially.
2 I am not considering the later novels, beginning with God Emperor of Dune ,
because of their more discursive and philosophical bent. Rather than cautionary tales,
they meditate on the uses and abuses of power in a different fashion. At times, Her-
bert seems to be channeling the worst impulses of Heinlein and Asimov and their ten-
dency to lecture through some indirectly autobiographical character.

Works Cited
Friedland, Edward, Paul Seabury, and Aaron Wildavsky. The Great Détente Disaster :
Oil and the Decline of American Foreign Policy. NY: Basic, 1975.
Herbert, Frank. Dune . NY: Ace, 1965.
Manlove, Colin. Science Fiction: Ten Explorations. Kent, OH: Kent State UR 1986.
McNelly, Willis E. "Frank Herbert." Science Fiction Writers. Ed. Richard Bleiler. 2nd
ed. NY: Scribners, 1999. 367-77.
Miller, David M. Frank Herbert. Mercer Island, WA: Starmont, 1980.
Rustow, Dankwart. Oil and Turmoil: America Faces OPEC and the Middle East. NY
and London: Norton, 1982.
Touponce, William F. Frank Herbert. Boston: Twayne, 1988.
Zentner, Rene D. "OPEC: Cartel or Chimaera?" OPEC : Twenty Years and Beyond. Ed.
Ragaei El Mallakh. Boulder, CO: Westview R 1982. 95-112.

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