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Cognitive Science and Technology
James K. Peterson
Calculus for
Cognitive
Scientists
Derivatives, Integrals and Models
Series editor
David M.W. Powers, Adelaide, Australia
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11554

Before the class started, Sidney wanted to go over the text one more time
James K. Peterson
Calculus for Cognitive

Scientists
Derivatives, Integrals and Models
123
James K. Peterson
Department of Mathematical Sciences
Clemson University
Clemson, SC
USA
ISSN 2195-3988 ISSN 2195-3996 (electronic)

ISBN 978-981-287-872-4 ISBN 978-981-287-874-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-981-287-874-8
Library of Congress Control Number: 2015958343
© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2016

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar
methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or
for any errors or omissions that may have been made.
Printed on acid-free paper
This Springer imprint is published by SpringerNature

The registered company is Springer Science+Business Media Singapore Pte Ltd.
I dedicate this work to all of my students
who have been learning this material
from courses taught over the last 10 years
on the interplay between mathematics,
biology, computation, and cognitive science.
I am also indebted to the practicing
scientists who have helped an outsider
think more clearly and to my family
who have listened to my ideas in the living
room and over dinner for many years.
I hope that this text helps inspire everyone
to consider mathematics and computer
science as indispensable tools in their
own work in the cognitive and biological
sciences.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank all the students who have used the various iterations of our
mathematics, biology/cognitive science, and computation notes as they have
evolved to the fully typed version here. We have been pleased by the enthusiasm
you have brought to this interesting combination of ideas from many disciplines.
For our new text on how to start learning calculus with a cognitive and bio-
logical science slant, we would like to thank all of the students from the past size
years who have listened to similar lectures on these matters. Their interest and
plentiful feedback and comments are helping this new endeavor be successful. I am
looking forward to hearing from all of my new students on how to improve my
presentations!
We wanted a new painting for this new book and decided on a vision of what the
future will certainly hold: the squids of today are phenomenally intelligent and will
undoubtedly evolve to the point where studying calculus, mathematics, and com-
putation is an absolute must. The details of how to do that in a water-based
environment are easily solved. In our painting, the squid Sydney is getting ready to
go to class and has decided to read the lesson of the day one more time or perhaps
Sydney is simply working on these notes as part of a program of self-study as we
hope many of you will be.
Finally, we gratefully acknowledge the support of Hap Wheeler in the
Department of Biological Sciences in the years 2006–2014 for believing that
courses of this sort would be useful to biology students.
vii
Contents
Part I Introduction
1 Introductory Remarks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1 Our Design Philosophy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.2 Insights from Other Fields. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.3 How Should You Study? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.4 Code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.5 Some Glimpses of Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
1.5.1 West Nile Virus Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.5.2 Simple Brain Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.5.3 A Cancer Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
1.6 A Roadmap to the Text . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
1.7 Final Thoughts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Part II Using One Variable

2 Viability Selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.1 A Basic Evolutionary Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.1.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.1.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.2 The Next Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.2.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
2.3 A Difference Equation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
2.3.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
2.3.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.4 The Functional Form of the Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
2.4.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
2.4.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
2.4.3 Biology and the Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
ix
x Contents
2.5 A Gentle Introduction to MatLab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

2.5.1 Matlab Vectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
2.5.2 Graphing a Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
2.5.3 A Simple Virus Infection Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
2.6 Long Term Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
2.7 The Domestication of Wheat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.7.1 Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
3 Limits and Basic Smoothness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
3.1 Limits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.1.1 The Humble Square Root . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
3.1.2 A Cool Polynomial Trick . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
3.1.3 Change and More Change! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
3.1.4 How Many Do We Have? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
3.1.5 This Function Is Smooth! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
4 Continuity and Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
4.1 Continuity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
4.1.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
4.1.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
4.2 Differentiability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
4.2.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
4.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
4.3 Simple Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
4.3.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.3.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.4 The Quotient Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
4.4.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
4.4.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
4.5 Chain Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
4.5.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
4.5.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
5 Sin, Cos and All That. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
5.1 Sin, Cos and All That! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
5.1.1 The Sin and Cos Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
5.2 A New Power Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
5.2.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
5.3 Derivatives of Complicated Things . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
6 Antiderivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
6.1 Simple Integer Power Antiderivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
6.1.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
6.1.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
Contents xi
6.2 Simple Fractional Power Antiderivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

6.2.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
6.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
6.3 Simple Trigonometric Function Antiderivatives . . . . . . . . . . . 119
6.3.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
6.3.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
7 Substitutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
7.1 Simple Substitution Polynomials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
7.2 Substitution for Polynomials Quick and Dirty . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
7.2.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
7.3 Sin’s and Cos’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
7.3.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
7.3.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
8 Riemann Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
8.1 Riemann Sums. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
8.1.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
8.1.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
8.2 Riemann Sums in MatLab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
8.2.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
8.3 Graphing Riemann Sums. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
8.3.1 Automating Riemann Sums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
8.3.2 Uniform Partition Riemann Sums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
8.4 Riemann Integrals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
8.4.1 The Riemann Integral as a Limit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
8.4.2 Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
8.5 The Fundamental Theorem of Calculus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
8.6 The Cauchy Fundamental Theorem of Calculus . . . . . . . . . . . 155
8.6.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
8.6.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
8.7 Riemann Integration with Substitution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
8.7.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
8.8 Integration with Jumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
8.8.1 Removable Discontinuity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
8.8.2 Jump Discontinuity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
8.8.3 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
9 The Logarithm and Its Inverse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
9.1 The Natural Logarithm Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
9.2 Logarithm Functions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
9.2.1 Worked Out Examples: Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
9.2.2 Homework: Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
9.2.3 Worked Out Examples: Integrals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
9.2.4 Homework: Integrals. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
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xii Contents
9.3 The Exponential Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

9.4 Exponential Functions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
9.4.1 Worked Out Examples: Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
9.4.2 Homework: Exponential Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . 174
9.4.3 Worked Out Examples: Exponential Integrals. . . . . . 175
9.4.4 Homework: Exponential Integrals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
9.5 Our Antiderivatives So Far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
10 Exponential and Logarithm Function Properties . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
10.1 Positive Integer Powers of e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
10.1.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
10.2 Negative Integer Powers of e . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
10.2.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184
10.3 Adding Natural Logarithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
10.3.1 Adding Logarithms: Both Logarithms are Bigger
Than 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 185
10.3.2 Adding Logarithms: One Logarithm Less
Than 1 and One Bigger Than 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188
10.3.3 Generalizing These Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
10.3.4 Doing Subtracts in General . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
10.4 Fractional Powers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
10.5 The Logarithm Function Properties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
10.5.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
10.6 The Exponential Function Properties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
10.6.1 Properties of the Exponential Function . . . . . . . . . . 198
10.6.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
11 Simple Rate Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
11.1 Solving a Simple Rate Problem: Indefinite Approach . . . . . . . 209
11.1.1 Resolution of the Absolute Value . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
11.1.2 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211
11.1.3 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213
11.2 Solving a Simple Rate Problem: Definite Approach . . . . . . . . 214
11.2.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
11.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
11.3 The Half Life in Exponential Decay Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
11.4 The Carbon Dating Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222
11.4.1 A Simple Dating Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
11.4.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223
11.4.3 Further Caveats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
11.5 Simple Rate Problems with Jumps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
11.5.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
Contents xiii
12 Simple Protein Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

12.1 The Integrating Factor Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
12.1.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 230
12.1.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
12.2 The Integrating Factor Approach with a Constant
on the Right . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
12.2.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
12.3 Protein Synthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
12.3.1 The Underlying Biology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
12.3.2 Worked Out Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 240
12.3.3 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 243
12.4 The Response Time in Protein Synthesis Problems . . . . . . . . . 244
12.4.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246
12.5 Signal On and Off Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
12.5.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
12.6 Transcription Error Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
12.6.1 A First Attempt to Explain the Error Rate . . . . . . . . 251
12.6.2 The Second Attempt: Kinetic Proofreading . . . . . . . 253
13 Logistics Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ 257
13.1 The Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........ 257
13.1.1 An Integration Side Trip: Partial Fraction
Decompositions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
13.1.2 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
13.2 The General Solution Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 266
13.2.1 A Streamlined Solution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272
13.3 Solving a Logistics Model on Paper . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
13.3.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277
14 Function Approximation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
14.1 Taylor Polynomials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
14.1.1 Fundamental Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 280
14.2 The Zeroth Order Taylor Polynomial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282
14.2.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
14.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
14.3 The First Order Taylor Polynomial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 284
14.3.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
14.3.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
14.4 Quadratic Approximations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289
14.4.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
14.4.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
14.5 Exponential Approximations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 295
14.5.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 297
14.5.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 298
xiv Contents
15 Extreme Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

15.1 Extremal Values. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301
15.1.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 302
15.1.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
15.2 The Newton Cooling Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303
15.2.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
15.2.2 Your Newton Cooling Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305
15.2.3 Your Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308
15.2.4 Some Sample Calculations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
16 Numerical Methods Order One ODEs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 315
16.1 Euler’s Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 315
16.1.1 Approximating the Solution to First Order
Differential Equations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317
16.1.2 Euler Approximates Again. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321
16.1.3 Euler Approximates the Last Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . 324
16.1.4 Euler’s Algorithm. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 329
16.1.5 Adding Time to Euler’s Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
16.1.6 Simple MatLab Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332
16.1.7 Matlab Euler Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335
16.1.8 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336
16.1.9 The True Versus the Euler Approximate Solution . . . 337
16.1.10 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340
16.2 Runge-Kutta Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 340
16.2.1 The MatLab Implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341
16.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
17 Advanced Protein Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
17.1 Binding Time Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
17.2 The Bound Fraction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 349
17.2.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352
17.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352
17.3 Transcription Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352
17.3.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356
17.3.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359
17.4 Simple Regulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359
17.4.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
17.4.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
17.5 Feedback Loops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
17.5.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
17.5.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368
Contents xv
Part III Using Multiple Variables

18 Matrices and Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371
18.1 Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371
18.1.1 The Zero Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372
18.1.2 Square Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
18.1.3 The Identity Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373
18.1.4 The Transpose of a Matrix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 374
18.1.5 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
18.2 Operations on Matrices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375
18.2.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 377
18.3 Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378
18.4 Operations on Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
18.5 The Magnitude of a Vector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
18.5.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
18.5.2 Some Matrix–Vector Calculations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382
18.6 The Inner Product of Two Column Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
18.6.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
19 A Cancer Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385
19.1 Two Allele TSG Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
19.2 Model Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391
19.3 Solving the Top Pathway Exactly. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392
19.3.1 The X0 X1 Subsystem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392
19.3.2 Solving for X2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393
19.4 Approximation of the Top Pathway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
19.4.1 Approximating X0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
19.4.2 Approximating X1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
19.4.3 Approximating X2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398
20 First Order Multivariable Calculus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399
20.1 Functions of Two Variables. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399
20.1.1 Drawing an Annotated Surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400
20.1.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406
20.2 Continuity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406
20.3 Partial Derivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
20.3.1 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 414
20.4 Tangent Planes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416
20.4.1 The Tangent Plane to a Surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 416
20.4.2 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 418
20.4.3 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419
20.4.4 Computational Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419
20.4.5 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
xvi Contents
20.5 Derivatives in Two Dimensions! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421

20.6 The Chain Rule . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425
20.6.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 426
20.6.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427
21 Second Order Multivariable Calculus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
21.1 Tangent Plane Approximation Error . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 429
21.2 Second Order Error Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430
21.2.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431
21.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432
21.3 Hessian Approximations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 432
21.3.1 Ugly Error Estimates! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433
21.3.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 436
21.4 Extrema Ideas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 437
21.4.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440
21.4.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442
21.5 A Regression to Regression. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 442
21.5.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447
21.5.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447
21.6 Regression and Covariances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449
21.6.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 450
21.6.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451
Reference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 452
22 Hamilton’s Rule in Evolutionary Biology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 453
22.1 How Do We Define Altruism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454
22.1.1 A Shared Common Good Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454
22.1.2 The Abstract Version . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 457
22.2 Hamilton’s Rule. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 461
22.2.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
22.2.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
22.3 Gene Survival . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464
22.3.1 Back to Covariance! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 466
22.4 Altruism Spread Under Additive Fitness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467
22.4.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469
22.4.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469
22.5 Altruism Spread Under Additive Genetics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469
22.5.1 Examples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 472
22.5.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
22.6 The Optimization Approach. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
22.6.1 Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474
22.6.2 Homework. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475
Contents xvii
Part IV Summing It All Up

23 Final Thoughts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480
Part V Advise to the Beginner

24 Background Reading . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 483
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 484
Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 487
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Actual survival curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Figure 1.2 A column circuit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Figure 1.3 Typical colon crypts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 1.4 The pathways for the TSG mutations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 2.1 The product p ð1 pÞ. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Figure 2.2 The MatLab startup screen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Figure 2.3 Graph of f. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Figure 2.4 Actual survival curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Figure 2.5 Simulation WNV survival data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Figure 2.6 Survival experiment results for 10 hosts and 18 fpu
Levels. a Healthy cells left in survival experiment: we
infect 10 hosts with 18 different pfu levels. The
simulation is run for 960 time units. b Survival curve: we
clearly see up and down variability in survival as pfu
levels increase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 51
Figure 2.7 The frequency of A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 53
Figure 2.8 Domesticated wheat dominance: Nautifian harvests every
5 years, domesticated wheat probability multiplier
is 0.4 and the initial domesticated wheat probability
is 1.0e 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 57
Figure 2.9 Domesticated wheat probabilities: Natufians plant every
5 years, domesticated wheat probability multiplier
is 0.4 and the initial domesticated wheat probability
is 1.0e 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 58
Figure 5.1 The critical area relationships that help us understand
how to estimate sinðxÞ=x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Figure 5.2 A simple neural circuit: 1-2-1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Figure 5.3 A simple neural processing function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Figure 5.4 A simple neural processing function’s derivative . . . . . . . . 109
Figure 5.5 Y4 output for our neural model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
Figure 5.6 Y4 ’s approximate derivative using h ¼ 0:01. . . . . . . . . . . . 111
xix
xx List of Figures
Figure 8.1 The area under the curve f . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

Figure 8.2 A simple Riemann sum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Figure 8.3 The Riemann sum as an approximate area. . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Figure 8.4 Graph of f. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
Figure 8.5 Simple rectangle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Figure 8.6 Riemann sum for f ðxÞ ¼ x2 for partition
f1; 1:5; 2:1; 2:8; 3:0g evaluation set ¼
f1:2; 1:7; 2:5; 2:9g . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 142
Figure 8.7 A typical Riemann sum graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 144
Figure 8.8 The Riemann sum with a uniform partition P10 of ½1; 4
for n ¼ 10. The function is sinð3xÞ and the Riemann sum
is 0:6726 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 146
Figure 8.9 Riemann sum with a uniform partition P20 of ½1; 4 for
n ¼ 20. The function is sinð3xÞ and the Riemann
sum is 0:6258 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 146
sum is 0:6149 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 147
sum is 0:6122 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Figure 8.12 The function F(x). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
Figure 9.1 The graph of the function 1/t. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Figure 9.2 There is a value e where the area under the curve is 1 . . . . 166
Figure 9.3 The function x3 and its inverse x1=3 plotted in the unit
square . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 172
Figure 10.1 There is a value c where the area under the curve from 1
to c is 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 180
Figure 10.2 There is a value c where the area under the curve from
e to c is 7 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 181
Figure 10.3 There is a value c where the area under the curve which
ends at 1 is 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 182
Figure 10.4 There is a value c where the area under the curve which
ends at 1 is 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 183
Figure 10.5 There is a value c where the area from the point
c to 1 is 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Figure 10.6 The natural logarithm of x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
Figure 10.7 lnð2xÞ and lnð3xÞ together. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
Figure 10.8 lnð3xÞ and lnðxÞ together . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194
Figure 10.9 The inverse of the natural logarithm of x, expðxÞ . . . . . . . . 196
Figure 10.10 The inverse of the natural logarithm of x, expðxÞ . . . . . 197
Figure 10.11 lnðxÞ and ex on the same graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
Figure 10.12 e2t and et on the same graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Figure 10.13 et and e1:5t on the same graph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
List of Figures xxi
Figure 11.1 Exponential data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

Figure 11.2 Power data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
Figure 11.3 Graph of e0:5t and et . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Figure 11.4 Graph of et and e2t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Figure 11.5 Graph of et and e1:5t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221
Figure 12.1 Promoter and gene . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
Figure 12.2 Promoter binding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
Figure 12.3 Activator and inactivator switching . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
Figure 12.4 Signal binding and protein transcription . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238
Figure 12.5 Protein production versus time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 239
Figure 12.6 Solution to x0 ðtÞ ¼ 0:02 xðtÞ þ 5; xð0Þ ¼ 75 . . . . . . . . . . 241
Figure 12.7 Solution to x0 ðtÞ ¼ 0:02 xðtÞ þ 5; xð0Þ ¼ 75 . . . . . . . . . . 246
Figure 12.8 Solution to P0 ¼ 0:04P þ 8; Pð0Þ ¼ 0 with the scenario
production is on for 2 response times, production is off
for 4 response times, production is on for 2 response time
and production is off from that point on . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 248
Figure 12.9 Solution to P0 ¼ 0:05P þ 11; Pð0Þ ¼ 100 with the
scenario production is on for 2 response times,
production is off for 3 response times, production
is on for 2 response time and production is off
from that point on . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249
Figure 12.10 MRNA and tRNA in more detail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
Figure 12.11 Ribosome processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Figure 12.12 Modified ribosome processing details . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254
Figure 13.1 Solution to u0 ðtÞ ¼ 3uðtÞ ð100 uðtÞÞ; uð0Þ ¼ 25 . . . . . . . . 263
Figure 13.2 Solution to u0 ðtÞ ¼ 2uðtÞ ð50 uðtÞÞ; uð0Þ ¼ 80 . . . . . . . . . 266
Figure 13.3 Solution page 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
Figure 14.1 eβt and its tangent line and quadratic approximation . . . . . 293
Figure 14.2 8 cosð2tÞ þ 3 sinð7tÞ and its tangent line and quadratic
approximation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
Figure 15.1 Experimental data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
Figure 15.2 Correct log plot to find slope . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Figure 15.3 The model versus the data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
Figure 16.1 True versus Euler for x0 ¼ 0:5xð60 xÞ; xð0Þ ¼ 20. . . . . . . 338
Figure 17.1 The activation when b ¼ 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
Figure 17.2 The activation when b ¼ 2, 3 and 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
Figure 17.3 The activation when b ¼ 10 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 354
Figure 17.4 The steady State value for the repression model when
b¼2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 356
xxii List of Figures
Figure 17.5 Repression and Degradation steady state values

for τ ¼ 0:5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 361
Figure 17.6 Repression and degradation steady state values
for τ ¼ 2:0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
Figure 17.7 Negative Feedback Transcription . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
Figure 17.8 Positive Feedback Transcription. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
Figure 18.1 Graphing a two dimensional vector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 380
Figure 18.2 Graphing a three dimensional vector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381
Figure 19.1 Typical colon crypts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
Figure 19.2 The pathways for the TSG allele losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388
Figure 19.3 The pathways for the TSG allele losses rewritten using
selective advantage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 389
Figure 19.4 The pathways for the TSG allele losses rewritten using
mathematical variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
Figure 20.1 The grid for the surface z ¼ x2 þ y2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
Figure 20.2 The surface and grid for z ¼ x2 þ y2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
Figure 20.3 The surface with grid and traces for z ¼ x2 þ y2 . . . . . . . . . 403
Figure 20.4 Adding the base to the surface with grid and traces for
z ¼ x2 þ y2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 404
Figure 20.5 The surface with grid and traces and column for
z ¼ x2 þ y2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 404
Figure 20.6 The traces f ðx0 ; yÞ and f ðx; y0 Þ for the surface z ¼ x2 þ y2
for x0 ¼ 0:5 and y0 ¼ 0:5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 408
for x0 ¼ 0:5 and y0 ¼ 0:5 with added
tangent lines. We have added the tangent plane
determined by the tangent lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 410
tangent lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 411
tangent lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 412
Figure 21.1 The surface f ðx; yÞ ¼ 2x2 þ 4y3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 442
Figure 21.2 The regression line for our sample data . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 448
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List of Table
Table 19.1 The Non CIN Pathway Approximations

with error estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397
xxiii
List of Code Examples
Listing 1.1 How to add paths to Octave . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Listing 1.2 Setting the path in Octave . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Listing 2.1 Defining a Matlab Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Listing 2.2 Defining a second Matlab Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Listing 2.3 A column vector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Listing 2.4 A column vector with no display . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Listing 2.5 A row vector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Listing 2.6 A row vector with no display . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Listing 2.7 New Vector Z . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Listing 2.8 Component wise Multiplication of Vectors . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Listing 2.9 A Vector Squared. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Listing 2.10 The function f(x) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Listing 2.11 f(2). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Listing 2.12 f(X) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Listing 2.13 Set up some vectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Listing 2.14 Setting up a function plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Listing 2.15 Adding labels to the plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Listing 2.16 Graphing f(t) = t3 + 2t + 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Listing 2.17 Loading Data From a File . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Listing 2.18 Putting Survival Data into a Matlab Variable . . . . . . . . . . 48
Listing 2.19 Loading data into MatLab variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Listing 2.20 Loading Healthy Percent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Listing 2.21 Logarithm of Pfu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Listing 2.22 Listing logPFU Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Listing 2.23 Simple logPfu versus Surviving Hosts Plot . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Listing 2.24 Healthy Percent versus logPfu Plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Listing 2.25 Entire Matlab Survival Data Session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Listing 2.26 Initialize our constants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Listing 2.27 Setting up the frequency function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Listing 2.28 Plotting the frequency of A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Listing 2.29 Finding the switching point . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
xxv
xxvi List of Code Examples
Listing 2.30 Our domesticated wheat model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 56

Listing 2.31 Sample Domesticated Wheat Simulation . . . . . . . . ..... 57
Listing 2.32 The Domesticated Wheat Probability versus
Harvests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Listing 2.33 Sample Domesticated Wheat Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Listing 8.1 Defining a Matlab Function again . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Listing 8.2 Set up the Partition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Listing 8.3 Find the Delta x’s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Listing 8.4 Set up the evaluation set E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Listing 8.5 Find the vector f(E).*dx . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Listing 8.6 Sum the vector to get the Riemann Sum . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Listing 8.7 All the Riemann Sum pieces together . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Listing 8.8 Sample Problem session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Listing 8.9 Setting up a function plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Listing 8.10 Adding labels to the plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Listing 8.11 Plotting a line . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
Listing 8.12 Plotting a horizontal line for our rectangle . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
Listing 8.13 Plotting a vertical line for our rectangle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138
Listing 8.14 Setting the axis of our plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Listing 8.15 Plotting the rectangle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Listing 8.16 The loop to plot all the rectangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Listing 8.17 The details of the rectangle for loop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Listing 8.18 Handling f being possibly negative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Listing 8.19 The full plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Listing 8.20 Adding the plot of f over the rectangles . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Listing 8.21 Plotting our Riemann Sum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Listing 8.22 The complete code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Listing 8.23 General Matlab Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Listing 8.24 Designing the Riemann Sum function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Listing 8.25 Our Riemann Sum Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Listing 8.26 The Riemann sum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
Listing 8.27 Sample Problem Session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
Listing 8.28 The Uniform Partition Riemann Sum Function. . . . . . . . . 145
Listing 8.29 Typical Session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Listing 8.30 Sample Problem session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Listing 10.1 Natural Logarithm And Inverse Natural Logarithm
Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Listing 10.2 e-x Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
Listing 11.1 Collected Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
Listing 11.2 Power Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206
Listing 14.1 Drawing the Approximations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 292
Listing 14.2 Generating approximations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Listing 14.3 Generating approximations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Listing 15.1 Cooling Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
List of Code Examples xxvii
Listing 15.2 Loading The Data Into Matlab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 310

Listing 15.3 Get the Logarithms of the Temperature Data
and Its Plot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310
Listing 15.4 Find Optimal Slope for Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 311
Listing 15.5 Build Model of Cooling Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 312
Listing 15.6 Plot the data and model on the same graph . . . . . . . . . . . 312
Listing 16.1 Define dynamics f(x) = 3x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
Listing 16.2 Euler Approximates The Long Way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 333
Listing 16.3 Simple Euler Approximations In Matlab With a for
loop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 334
Listing 16.4 DoEuler.m. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 335
Listing 16.5 Euler Approximates for x′ = 1.9x, x(0) = 10 . . . . . ..... 335
Listing 16.6 Euler Approximates for x′ = 0.5x(60 − x),
x(0) = 20. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336
Listing 16.7 Euler Approximates for x′ = −0.3x + 13, x(0) = 10. . . . . . 336
Listing 16.8 True versus Euler Approximate Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . 337
Listing 16.9 Plotting Euler Approximations Only . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338
Listing 16.10 Plotting Multiple Euler Approximations Only . . . . . . . . . 339
Listing 16.11 DoEulerTwo.m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
Listing 16.12 RKstep.m: Runge-Kutta Codes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 342
Listing 16.13 FixedRK.m: The Runge-Kutta Solution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
Listing 16.14 True versus All Four Runge-Kutta
Approximations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 344
Listing 17.1 Activation for b = 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 353
Listing 17.2 The Steady State for the Repression model
with b = 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 355
Listing 17.3 Problem Code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 359
Listing 17.4 Steady State Values for Repression and Degradation
Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
Listing 17.5 Problem Code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
Listing 17.6 Problem Code . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
Listing 17.7 A Sample Negative Feedback Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
Listing 17.8 A Sample Positive Feedback Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
Listing 17.9 eulerdelay.m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 365
Listing 17.10 A Sample Negative Feedback With Delay . . . . . . . . . . . . 366
Listing 17.11 A Sample Positive Feedback With Delay . . . . . . . . . . . . 367
Listing 20.1 Setting Up The Surface Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
Listing 20.2 Drawing The Base Line Grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401
Listing 20.3 Drawing the Surface as a Mesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
Listing 20.4 Drawing the Traces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
Listing 20.5 Drawing The Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
Listing 20.6 Drawing the Vertical Lines for the Base . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
Listing 20.7 Drawing The Surface Patch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
Listing 20.8 DrawSimpleSurface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405
xxviii List of Code Examples
Listing 20.9 Drawing a simple surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405

Listing 20.10 Drawing a full trace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
Listing 20.11 Drawing Tangent Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410
Listing 20.12 Drawing Tangent Lines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 411
Listing 20.13 DrawTangentPlanePackage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 420
Listing 20.14 Drawing Tangent Planes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
Listing 21.1 The surface f(x, y) = 2x2 + 4y3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441
Listing 21.2 Finding the regression line. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447
Listing 21.3 Finding the regression line. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 451
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CHAPTER I
PLAIN TRUTHS ABOUT MACEDONIA
War imminent between Bulgaria and Turkey—My secret inquiries—Atrocities by the
Greek bands—Chats with the leaders of the insurrection—The truth about the
intrigues in Macedonia—I visit the scene of the massacres—Stories told to me
—Horrifying facts—Germany behind the assassins—A disgraceful truth.
This present record of my observations in the Near East would be

incomplete without some description of my journey through
Macedonia, and what I saw there.
The Macedonian question is the burning question of to-day, and
one that can only be solved in one way—by a fierce and bloody war.
As I have already shown, there is every indication that hostilities
between Bulgaria and Turkey must occur in the present year.
Indeed, the thread is now strained to breaking point, and one need
never be surprised to learn at the breakfast-table one morning that
Bulgaria has boldly thrown down the gauntlet to the Sultan. Then,
aided by Roumania—who will be induced to give her support in
return for that additional strip of territory between the Danube and
the Black Sea, as I have already indicated in a previous chapter—a
fierce and bitter struggle will commence. With Bulgaria, the Northern
Albanians will ally themselves according to the words of the various
chiefs of whom I made inquiry; Montenegro, and of course Servia,
will hold their own against the Turk, and the result must be that the
whole of the Balkans will be aflame.
This forecast is no imaginary one. It is based upon information
imparted to me in confidence by Cabinet Ministers themselves—
information which is in part in the possession of the Foreign Office at
this moment. Secret preparations are in active progress both in
Roumania and Bulgaria, while Servia has ordered her new artillery to
be delivered at the end of this present spring. There is a tacit
agreement between the Balkan States that affairs in Macedonia are
intolerable, and that the decimated population must now be
protected. And in summary of the various conversations I had with
the monarchs and their Ministers in each of the Balkan capitals, I
can only say that the view is unanimous.
In Servia, in Bulgaria, in Montenegro, in Albania, in Roumania, and
in Macedonia itself I made every inquiry from reliable sources. From
secret information, I was able to gather that there is but one
solution of the question—War.
At present the Bulgarian bands formed to protect the Macedonians
are passive. The organisation is still there, and will be of greatest
use when hostilities are declared; but there is no activity, and there
has, indeed, been little since the recent abortive insurrection.
Greek bands, aided and abetted by the Turks, are, however,
everywhere, and each day the most awful atrocities are committed
by them. Reports of these are received in Sofia and in
Constantinople, but no representation is made by either of the
Powers to the Sublime Porte or to Athens. “Macedonia!” exclaimed a
well-known foreign Ambassador one day, while I was sitting at lunch
with him at his Embassy, “Macedonia! We’re sick of Macedonia, and
have ceased to trouble about it!”
Ceased to trouble indeed! Here a great and intelligent Christian
population is being slaughtered in order to further the ambitious
aims of Germany, and no one stirs a finger! Europe raised its eyes
heavenward when it heard of the Congo atrocities, yet of poor
Macedonia the Powers are “sick,” and she is cast helpless to the
assassin’s knife!
Before going to Macedonia I sought and obtained the opinions of
the leading authorities in the East, as well as those of the rulers and
Ministers. Much told me by the various monarchs was, of course, in
entire confidence, therefore I can only speak generally in declaring
their opinion to be in favour of securing for Macedonia autonomy
under a European prince as Governor-General.
In more than one high quarter Prince Danilo of Montenegro was
mentioned as possible for the post, and in another the name of
Prince Mirko of Montenegro was put forward. A German prince or an
Austrian archduke would be impossible, but an English prince would
be welcomed, and the name of Prince Arthur of Connaught was
spoken of by more than one Balkan Cabinet Minister.
In Servia I had several highly interesting chats with Professor
Civics of Belgrade University, who is a well-known authority on
Macedonia, and who has recently published a book attempting to
prove that the bulk of the Macedonian population is not Bulgar, but
Serb. Many of his arguments I found, on exhaustive inquiry, to be
well based, yet my own conclusion is that, after all, the great
majority of the Macedonian population is really Bulgar.
This fact is admitted all through the Balkans, therefore the
situation in Macedonia must of necessity affect Bulgaria more closely
than any other nation.
The question of Macedonia is a most difficult and complicated one,
but I spared no effort in order to thoroughly master it in all its
various phases, and to get at the truth of the present and the
probabilities of the near future.
In Sofia I had a long talk with Professor Agoura of Sofia University,
who is one of the best-known authorities upon the Macedonian
question. He has been in Macedonia many times, and, like myself,
has had an opportunity of speaking with the people and hearing
their grievances.
“In England the Macedonian question is entirely misunderstood,”
he said. “Some writers have taken Professor Civics’ views, and
endeavoured to prove that the Macedonians are really Slavs. But
they are not. Their whole history shows that they are Bulgars.”
“And the present state of the country?” I asked.
“Never in the modern history of Macedonia has it been in such a
bad state as at present. The Christian Bulgars are outraged,
tortured, and shot, and their villages burnt by the Greek bands, who
are now under the protection of the Turks, and not a voice is raised
at Constantinople in complaint. It is simply astounding that such a
state of things should be allowed to exist in this twentieth century.
Over one thousand Christian Bulgars were killed in the raids last
year, and this year the number is known to be more than double.
Bulgaria is, however, at this moment staying her hand. Weakened as
the Macedonians are, and with Turkey protecting the Greek bands,
our Bulgarian bands for the protection of the villages have but little
chance. Of late, it has been the unfortunate Bulgar who has lost
always. The Bulgar bands, it was found, compromised the villages,
and at the same time were not strong enough to protect them.
Therefore those still in Macedonia live in the mountains and come
down when required. Ah!” he added, throwing up his hands, “the
state of affairs is terrible! Only recently during a village wedding at
Zagoutcheni the place was attacked by a Greek band and seventy
men, women, and children killed.”
“And in your opinion what would be the best settlement of the
question?” I inquired; for he was one of the greatest authorities in
Europe upon the much-vexed problem.
“The best settlement of Macedonia would be an autonomy, but a
restrained one—one that would not separate Macedonia from
Turkey,” he replied. “Macedonia should be placed under a European
Governor-General—certainly not German—preferably a Swiss. The
police and the central administration should be vested in the
Governor-General, and all other questions left to Turkey. Religion
should, of course, be free. Bulgaria has no desire to annex
Macedonia, as the Powers seem to think. I do not think that the
question can be settled in any other way. A European conference
should be convoked, and the matter dealt with at once. When you
go to Macedonia, you will see for yourself the state of things. But
remember, the Turks will let you see nothing if they can help it. You
are going to Monastir. Good. Travel across to Ochrida, and you will
see and hear things that will appal you.
Macedonian Christian
abducted by the Turks from
Klene, a village near Debr,
and rescued by a Bulgarian General Tzontcheff,
band. The Bulgarian leader in Macedonia.
“Recently there have been, to my knowledge, eight Christian

villages entirely destroyed by Greek bands—the inhabitants
exterminated, and the houses burned to the ground. During the past
two years there has never passed one single day without murders
and outrages committed by Greek bands upon the Bulgar inhabitants
of Macedonia. Unfortunately, the Turkish army arrives always too
late to protect the population; but this is, of course, arranged:
Indeed, it seems as though the Turks protect these Greek bands and
assist them in their nefarious work. From Ochrida right down to
Salonica these murders are of daily occurrence, always by the Greek
bands. These bands operate in the arrondissements of Seres,
Drama, Demir-Hissar, Kavala; in the Salonica vilayet at Enije-Vardar,
Vodena, and Guevgueli; in Lerin, Florina, Castoria, Presba, and
Murievo, and around Monastir. The Servian bands operate at
Cumanovo, Palanca, Veles, Kitschevo, and Poretschi; while Turkish
bands are just now massacring at Tikveschi, Schlip, Veles, Kotschani,
Strousaitza, Razlog, Melnik, and Nevrokop. So it will be seen that
where there are no Greek bands, there are either Turks or Servians.”
In Sofia I also met the renowned leader of the premature
insurrection in Macedonia, General Ivan Tzontcheff, a short, smart,
dapper little man, quick of movement and alert of manner. With him
I likewise had a very interesting chat. As one who has the
Macedonian cause at heart, as head of the Macedonian External
Committee, and being in daily touch with events in that terrified
country, he and his friend, Monsieur Gologanoff, were able to give
me many details and explain much that is unknown to the English
public.
I also met several times, and had long conversations with, Dr.
Tartarcheff, who was president of the Macedonian Revolutionary
Committee in Bulgaria, and who, after the insurrection, was taken
prisoner by the Turks. Both men gave me much authentic
information and introductions that were of great use to me in my
journey through Macedonia.
The truth is that the Macedonian question is the direct result of
the Treaty of Berlin, for by it the Treaty of St. Stefano—which
incorporated Macedonia in the Bulgarian Principality—was annulled.
The Treaty of Berlin thus left Macedonia under the Turkish dominion,
with a provision of a kind of autonomy under the control of the
Great Powers.
This autonomy was worked up in detail by an International
Commission in Constantinople in 1880. But it was not applied, and
the situation in Macedonia remained the same as it was before the
Russo-Turkish War, and became even worse, on account of the
Turkish fanaticism aroused against the Bulgarians as the cause of
their military disasters.
The Turkish persecutions and the new situation in Bulgaria
attracted the greater portion of the Macedonian intelligent
population into that Principality. A strong Macedonian emigration was
therefore started to Bulgaria, which in late years has arisen to the
number of more than 150,000.
Macedonia, thus drained of its intelligence, devoted its energies
from 1880 to 1890 to a strong educational movement, which was
favoured in a great measure by the political circumstances arisen
after the union of Eastern Roumelia to the Bulgarian Principality in
1885. Towards the end of this period, 1880 to 1890, there had
sprung up in Macedonia a young, vigorous intelligence, with a strong
national conscience, longing for greater freedom in the national and
economical development of the country, and aspiring for a wider
field of activity. The Turks, afraid of the Bulgarian progress, began to
restrain the activity of the Macedonians. The growing tyrannical
régime of the Sultan Hamid made the situation still more difficult,
and life became impossible in the country.
The Macedonians then sought their salvation in revolution.
This revolutionary movement had for its object the autonomy of
Macedonia, which is declared by all I met in the Balkans to be the
only solution of the question.
Several important reasons are given for this. First, it is argued that
autonomy was secured by International Acts:—the Treaty of Berlin,
and the International Commission in Constantinople, 1880. Secondly,
it did not touch in any way the integrity of the Turkish Empire, a
dogma in the policy of the European Powers. Thirdly, it did not in
any way impair the suzerainty of the Sultan, who still remained the
sovereign of the province, and who had himself accepted and signed
the International Act. Fourthly, it gave full scope to the free
development of all the inhabitants in the country, independently of
religion or race. Fifthly, the autonomy not only did not affect the
interests of any Balkan State, but was bringing a soothing element
into the relations between the Balkan nations.
To-day the animosities between the Balkan nations have their
common cause in Macedonia. She is the apple of discord. Every
Balkan State is contemplating the conquest of this rich province and
the playing of principal rôle in the destinies of the Peninsula. All have
instituted church and school propagandas in the country, where they
wage a furious war between themselves upon the shoulders of the
native population. This war is made more cruel by the policy of
Turkey, Germany, and Greece. So that in this way the Macedonian
population is demoralised, and the Balkan nations themselves are
exhausting their energy.
The autonomy, if secured, would exercise a benign influence
towards an understanding between the Balkan nations. By the
establishment of such an administration in Macedonia, under the
guidance and the control of Europe, the Macedonians would take
their destiny in their own hands. The different propagandas would
not have such a propitious field for action, and the animosities would
gradually subside. That this is the best solution of the Macedonian
question is held by statesmen all through the Peninsula, for by the
progress of time and the development of events the erection of
Macedonia into a separate state must become dominant as the final
solution.
The way for a Balkan Federation would then be cleared.
Macedonia by itself would become a kind of Switzerland, and the
nucleus towards the creation of a still more powerful Switzerland in
the Balkan Federation, which, neutralised, would create in the
Balkan Peninsula a field for progress and civilisation, but not a bridge
for the conquering ambitions from the North.
With such broad ideas and with such hopes, the Macedonians
wrote upon their revolutionary banner the watchwords, “Macedonia
for the Macedonians.”
The revolutionary movement in Macedonia—which dates from the
year 1893—began to develop into a strong organisation from 1896-
97. The whole country, by patient work, was gradually covered with
a network of secret societies, at the head of which was a Central
Revolutionary Committee, which, in fact, had a greater power in the
country than the official Turkish authorities.
This revolutionary organisation had an international character. In it
were received all the Macedonians thirsting for liberty. In its ranks
were not only Bulgarians, but also Vlachs, Montenegrins, Servians,
and even Turks, discontented with the Sultan’s régime. But on the
whole, the organisation bore a Bulgarian colour, chiefly on account
of the great Bulgarian majority in Macedonia, and also on account of
the suspicion that the organisation intended prosecuting Bulgarian
ambitions.
For the reason that Macedonia had a population mostly of
Bulgarian nationality, and through the agitation of Macedonian
Emigration, the revolutionary movement found a favourable ground
in Bulgaria. Here it was met with sympathy, which was followed by
moral and material support. An organisation was instituted in the
Principality, which spread its influence very rapidly through the whole
country. This organisation was called the External Organisation,
while that in Macedonia bore the name of the Internal Revolutionary
Organisation.
The activity of these two organisations brought the revolutionary
movement to a great development during the years of 1900 and
1901. The revolutionary idea became dominant in Macedonia. Nearly
the whole population was united in a strongly organised body, and a
great part of the men able to fight were armed, and fighting bands
were formed which exercised the armed men. The country was
divided into military districts, and the Macedonians were inspired
with such enthusiasm that they welcomed, with a thrill of exultation,
the impending struggle. The enthusiasm was no less great in
Bulgaria, where the coming insurrection was awaited with great
hopes of success. Indeed, no nation in the Balkan Peninsula had
shown such a power of organisation, such sacrificing spirit, and such
fighting qualities as the Macedonians. An intimate knowledge of the
Macedonian revolutionary movement, such as General Tzontcheff
possesses, shows, indeed, the wonderful energy of the
Macedonians.
A Bulgarian Band in Macedonia.
But alas! political intrigues from quarters with unfriendly

dispositions towards Macedonian aspirations, sowed
misunderstandings in the midst of the Organisation, and her forces
were suddenly paralysed by internal strife just on the eve of the
struggle.
The consequence was that the Macedonian revolutionary
movement did not express itself in one general effort, but in partial
insurrections, none of which showed the whole revolutionary energy.
The insurrection in the valley of the river Stromina during the
autumn of 1902 and the insurrection in the vilayet of Monastir in
1903 were easily crushed, and the hopes and expectations of the
population unfortunately deceived.
After these abortive insurrections a new situation was created.
The European Powers admitted the inability of the Turkish
Government to establish order in Macedonia, and the principle of
European interference and control was adopted. As a result of this
principle, the Murshteg reforms worked up by Austria and Russia
were proclaimed. These reforms, however, were not integral, but
merely embryo reforms, from the expansion and development of
which depended the pacification of the country.
On the other hand, the morale of the Macedonians was now
shaken and the power of the Revolutionary Organisation shattered in
consequence of the incomplete insurrections and the consequent
Turkish victories.
Naturally, the Turks, faithful to their traditional policy, would avail
themselves of this situation in order to hinder the development of
the reforms in their true sense. The Greeks—whose policy is the
partition of Macedonia—were, like the Turks, against such a
development of the reforms, because the establishment of an
effectual European control would lead to a good government, which
would gradually evolve the destiny of Macedonia towards an
autonomy.
Therefore, the policy of Turkey, Greece, and Germany had a
common interest, namely, to paralyse the reforms, and became a
common enemy to the Macedonians, who, by their Bulgarian
majority, were striving for autonomy.
So, united in their action, Greece, and also Servia to a smaller
extent, hurled, the one from the South and the other from the
North, armed bands into Macedonia, who commenced their
destructive work against the Bulgarian element, by killing the leading
men and enforcing the country population to recognise Greek or
Servian nationality. The Turks cover their action, and the villagers,
unprotected and without arms, are unable to defend themselves.
They are at the mercy of these bands, aided by the Turkish
authorities.
Thus a cruel religious and racial war has sprung up in the heart of
Macedonia, under the protection and instigation of the Turkish policy,
and also under the benevolent eyes of Germany and Austria.
This terrible situation has been still more complicated by the
Bulgarians themselves. The Revolutionary Organisation being
shattered in its moral and material power, armed bands were formed
after the insurrection, under unscrupulous leaders, who commenced
acts of depredation upon the unfortunate Macedonians.
Just now the revolutionary organisation in Bulgaria is undergoing
another crisis. It is divided into two principal flanks: the moderate
and the extreme. The first-mentioned inclines towards a suspension
of active revolutionary operations on account of the exhaustion of
the Macedonian population and the unfavourable political situation in
Europe, while the extreme party are urging a continuance of
revolutionary action to exasperation. At the annual congress in
January last the moderates had a chance to oust the extreme party,
but the death of Damian Groueff, the chief of the moderates, who
was killed in the village of Roussinovo (vilayet of Uskub) upset all
their plans. On account of Groueff’s death they did not take part in
the congress, and the result is that the extreme party are now all
paramount, and further reprisals may be expected.
Therefore from all sides—from Turks, Greeks, Servians, and even
Bulgarians, as well as from an interested diplomacy—the
Macedonians are pressed, and their aspirations for the autonomy
compromised. And what is the result of all this? Only that the
Macedonians are set by the interested Powers before the eyes of the
Christian world as a cruel and barbarous population, unworthy of
sympathy—worthy only of the tyrannical Turkish rule!
What is the remedy?
There is but one, the one advocated by the kings and princes of
the Balkans and the Cabinet Ministers with whom I chatted, namely,
to change the present farcical so-called reforms into an
administration, under effectual European control by appointing a
European Governor-General, responsible to the Powers. Then this
terrible situation will change into the peaceful development of a
country which is endowed by nature with bounty, but reduced by
men’s covetousness to a perfect hell.
That Macedonia to-day is a hell I have seen with my own eyes.
And moreover I have been under fire from a Greek band myself. I
travelled—contrary to the advice of my friends, who feared the perils
of the way—right through the heart of Macedonia from south to
north, visiting the Seres and Melnik districts, which only a few days
prior to my arrival had been ravaged by Greek bands. In one poor
village I passed through, twenty-three women, children, and old
men had been butchered in cold blood on the previous day, and I
saw with my own eyes some of their mutilated bodies. Upon the
women nameless atrocities had been committed.
In Caraja-Kioi, a village not far from Seres, I was told that a
fortnight before, nineteen persons, mostly old men and women, had
been massacred, and I was informed by eye-witnesses that the
Greek band was assisted by the Turks, and that present at the
massacre was a Greek metropolitan and a Greek consular employé!
I saw and spoke to two women who had been maltreated by the
Greeks, and who still bore wounds. The head of one was bound by a
bloodstained rag, and the arm of the other was in a sling.
What they told me was truly horrifying. Both had been outraged
and left for dead, without a hand being raised in their defence. And
their cases were only two out of several dozen. A child, a little girl of
seven, had been decapitated by a brutal Turk, and a mother with her
suckling babe had been tortured by slow burning.
Everywhere I went was the same terrible tale, the same cry for
the protection of the Powers. At Vranja, in the Melnik district, I saw
the gaunt ruins of seven houses which had been recently burnt, and
was told how nine women, after being subjected to all sorts of
atrocities, were afterwards shot, while at Bashna three men were
burnt alive, in a house, and six women shot.
That journey through Macedonia still haunts me like a nightmare.
On the one hand, I met the oily Turkish official in frock-coat and fez
declaring that the country was quite quiet, and that all reports were
exaggerated; while, on the other, I saw with my own eyes the
devilish blood-lust of the Greeks, the poor people with their wounds
still upon them, the mutilated bodies of innocent Christian women
whose blood calls hourly for vengeance.
To Florina, up to Kastoria, and through the terrorised districts
around the lakes of Presba and Ochrida I travelled, first under
Turkish escort, but not being allowed to see what I wanted, I was
permitted by a Bulgarian band to join them, and rode through the
various districts. It was a somewhat perilous and exciting time, for I
travelled quickly, wishing to get out of the country. Its terrors had
got on my nerves, and the gloomy warnings of my friends ever rose
within my mind. Greek bands seemed to be operating everywhere,
and we never knew when we might not come into close quarters.
Our way lay often through deep ravines, affording excellent cover for
lurking Greeks.
So life was the reverse of pleasant.
Still I saw with my own eyes sights that appalled me, and I am
certain that if the reader had seen what I have witnessed he would
cry shame that such an awful state of things should be allowed to
exist, and even fostered by a Christian civilised Power.
Does the Christian Kaiser, with all his outward declarations of
belief in the direction of the Almighty, ever give a thought to the
poor Macedonians butchered with his knowledge—butchered to
further the secret aims of the “Fatherland”? Does His Imperial
Majesty, when he bends his knee in prayer, remember the first
tenets of the Christian faith?
Those who know, as I know, the secrets of German intrigue in
Constantinople, cannot but feel contempt and disgust at the
shameful sacrifice of human life in Macedonia, where Greeks and
Turks outrage, torture, burn, and shoot the poor innocent populace,
egged on by “pious” Germany.
Let the ambitious Emperor, who so often invokes God’s blessing
upon the German nation, pause for a moment and reflect whether
there is no hypocrisy in his political policy, and whether he himself,
personally, can expect to receive the Divine aid he so constantly
petitions with mock servility.
By raising his hand he could to-morrow stop those brutal, savage
Greeks from their bloody work. Yet, by doing so, he knows he would
nullify his policy of Germany’s advance southward, and would throw
to the winds the years of secret diplomacy practised at the Sublime
Porte. Will he do so?
Or will he continue to lift his eyes to Heaven, and close his ears to
the death-cries of the poor slaughtered Christian women and
children, who are every day being butchered for political purposes?
It was the Kaiser’s diplomacy that discovered the existence of the
Roumanian population in Macedonia; it was by his intrigues at
Athens that diplomatic negotiations between Greece and Roumania
have been broken off.
Go to Macedonia yourself with an open mind and study the
question on the spot, and you will, before a week has passed, obtain
quite sufficient evidence to convince you that what I have here
written is the truth—that Germany stands behind both Greek and
Turk, and encourages them with moral and material support to
commit those awful and nameless outrages which are a disgrace to
our civilisation.
CHAPTER II
THE TRUTH EXPOSED
Summary of my confidential information—War this year—The attitude of Greece,
Bulgaria, Roumania, and Turkey—Procrastination, promises, and perfect
politeness—A matter more serious than Macedonia—Warning to British
statesmen and the public—The real truth exposed—Germany and India.
As summary of all my confidential inquiries throughout the Near

East, I find that the present position as regards Macedonia is a very
serious one.
Bulgaria, who has the largest population there, has undoubtedly
decided to adopt a firm course, which must inevitably lead to war
during the present year. Within a few months the Balkans will be in
bloody conflict.
Greece is defiant, and her bands still ravage Macedonia. Monsieur
Theotokis, the Prime Minister, has openly adopted a policy of
defiance against Roumania, and of increased persecution of the
Vlachs in Macedonia.
His attitude is a ridiculous one, and calculated to still further
complicate the situation. He declares that the enemies of Hellenism
have succeeded in persuading public opinion in Europe, and even
European Governments, that the abnormal situation in Macedonia is
due to the action of Greco-Macedonian bands, and has also made
them forget the atrocities which Bulgarians had committed for six
years against the Greeks, who had at last been compelled to rise
and try to defend themselves. Whenever the Greek Government asks
for compensation of the Powers, no matter what the question at
issue, they are, he says, met with the argument that they were
responsible for the atrocities in Macedonia, because they aided
Greek bands. The Powers, he says, were informed that the Hellenic
Government could not prevent succour being given to the
Macedonian Greeks in their defensive campaign, but would use its
authority to moderate the activity of the bands. Unhappily, the
slackening of the activity of the Greek bands was followed by a
recrudescence of that of the hostile bands. The Powers were
informed that the situation was becoming intolerable, and unless
they could take measures to oblige others to respect their wishes,
the Greek Government would be obliged to defend a race which was
resolved to live, and not to bend under the ferocity of its enemies.
He maintains that it is the duty of Greece to accelerate her military
preparations. Without an army she cannot be considered a factor in
the East, or hope for the sympathies of others.
But M. Theotokis has gone even farther. His declarations are
distinctly amusing. In the course of an interview in Athens in January
of the present year he actually had the audacity to attribute the
present situation in Macedonia to Bulgaria. He argued as follows:—
“For a period of six years armed bands of Bulgarians roved all

over Macedonia, endeavouring to get the Greek Christian
inhabitants to declare allegiance to the head of the Bulgarian
Church, and backed up their efforts in this direction by
committing murders and atrocities of every description.
Notwithstanding repeated appeals of the Greek Government to
the Powers to put a stop to these outrages, they were
continued, and instead of being checked, went on increasing in
number and violence. News of these atrocities reaching Greece
daily, public opinion here was getting more and more excited,
and finally, the Greek public having given up all hope of a stop
being put to them, committees were formed with the object of
taking action to protect their compatriots.
“The Greek Government was powerless to prevent these
protective bands from crossing into Macedonia, as,
unfortunately, we have not sufficient forces to thoroughly guard
the frontier. The inability is not surprising, when you consider
that Turkey with twenty times the forces at her disposal is not
able to prevent them from getting across. That these bands
should occasionally have seized an opportunity to avenge
Bulgarian crimes, which had continued so long unrestrained, is
only natural, as it is not possible to keep armed bands under
proper control in such circumstances.
“Finding at last that they had to face Greek bands, which they
were not able to stand up against, the Bulgarians commenced
to fill the world with complaints against the Greeks, and sent
out descriptions of imaginary atrocities committed by Greek
bands, when their only real cause of complaint was that they
themselves could no longer commit crimes on the Greek
Christians with impunity in the way they, for six years, had been
accustomed.
“The result of the great outcry raised by the Bulgarians was
that strong pressure was brought to bear by the Powers on the
Greek Government to prevent Greek bands from crossing into
Macedonia, and the Greek Government increased the efforts
they had always been making in this direction. Probably as a
result of the efforts of this Government, fewer Greek bands
have been operating in Macedonia during the past two months,
and the consequence is that thirty-nine Greeks have been
murdered in Macedonia during this period by Bulgarians, while
only seven of the latter have been killed by Greeks.
“The Greek Government have no interest whatever in
hindering the efforts of the Powers to restore order in
Macedonia. Quite the contrary; no one desires to see order
restored there more than we do. But you must remember that
the majority of the inhabitants of Macedonia are Greeks, and it
is not in the power of the Greek Government to control public
opinion in Greece in face of the atrocities committed by
Bulgarians on our countrymen in Macedonia. If the Bulgarian
propaganda in that country is put a stop to, the Greek Christians
will have nothing to fear, and in such circumstances no Greek
bands will be found there, as their sole object in crossing the
frontier was to protect their co-religionists, who for six years
had been terrorised by the Bulgarians. Once Bulgarian crimes in
Macedonia cease, there will be nothing more heard of
‘regrettable incidents’ in that country.”
Thus it will be seen that the Prime Minister makes no mention of

Germany or of German intrigue. He endeavours to put the blame
upon Bulgaria, when all Europe knows well that it is Greece who is
responsible for the present bloodshed, and even the Turkish Grand
Vizier himself has condemned the action of the Greeks, and declared
that in more than one instance the Greek bands have actually
operated with the full knowledge and assistance of Greek consuls.
With such biassed views held by the Greek Premier, it can easily
be seen that a solution of the problem of Macedonia cannot be
arrived at without recourse to force of arms, and the more so,
because of Bulgaria’s determination to make her power felt in the
country where her subjects are being daily murdered.
The Turkish policy is the traditional one of procrastination,
promises, and perfect politeness. The promised reforms are not
carried out, the foreign officers employed in reforming the
gendarmerie are disgusted with their treatment, and are fast leaving
the Turkish service, while the Mohammedan rule is daily growing
more and more oppressive, and the unfortunate Macedonians are
being slaughtered under the very eyes and with the full cognisance
of the Turkish officials, both civil and military.
In Constantinople it is believed that a serious entente regarding
Macedonia exists between Italy and Austria, and this belief is based
upon Signor Tittoni’s recent declaration. From information I gathered
from very reliable sources, however, I am in a position to state that
the Turkish fears are utterly groundless. An entente exists, but only
in regard to Servia, Bulgaria, and Northern Albania. Austria desired
that Montenegro should be included, but Italy—for very obvious
reasons—made the complete independence of that valiant little
country one of the stipulations. Hitherto Italy and Austria have
carried on separate propagandas, but it is quite certain that the two
are now amalgamated, and will in future work towards one common
end.
Turkey has nothing to fear from either Austria or Italy, but from
Bulgaria and Germany—from the former, who will assert her rights;
and from the latter, who will eventually play the traitor and crush
her.
My conversations at the Sublime Porte, in those shabbily furnished
rooms, with seedy officials offering me cups of coffee, were often
very amusing. I had really credited the Turk with more shrewdness,
for the Oriental is usually supposed to be the finest diplomat in all
the world. Yet from the Grand Vizier downwards to the men-in-the-
street, they are all held fascinated under the benign smile of
Germany.
Assurances were given me during those audiences with the rulers
of Turkey that all was being done that could possibly be done in
Macedonia; that reports of massacres were exaggerated; that the
Turks were actually protecting the Bulgarians, and that the
Macedonian question was not at all a serious one.
I will give one instance. It was admitted to me during one of my
audiences at the Sublime Porte, that “a few incidents” had occurred,
but I was assured that they were not serious, and that all was now
quiet in Macedonia.
In reply, I pointed out that on November 7 last (Old Style) a Greek
band descended upon the village of Karadjovo, and having
disembowelled seven men, killed twenty-five Bulgarians. They then
massacred most of the women and children in the village, and
calmly went off.
I was then officially informed that it had been discovered that a
certain Greek consul had been implicated in this raid, and that arms
had been supplied through him. The Turks had therefore made a
strong protest to Athens, and sent four battalions in pursuit of the
assassins.
At Salonica, ten days later, I saw one of the peasants present at
this massacre in question, and the description he gave of it was
horrifying. His version of the affair was very different from the
official Turkish version, for he declared that the Turks themselves
aided the assassins and allowed them to get clear away. Twenty-five
women were, he said, outraged and afterwards killed. One woman
had her hands cut off, and another’s feet were burnt over a fire.
Other facts he told me were too terrible to repeat here.
Though the Porte may have made formal protest to Athens, there
is but little doubt that the Turks were implicated in the massacre—as
they are in most of those “regrettable incidents,” as they are called,
which daily occur in the Land of Black Terror.
Permission was readily granted to me to travel through the
country, but it certainly would not have been had it been known that
beyond the lake of Ochrida I intended to disregard my Turkish escort
and throw in my lot with the Bulgarians, declared by the authorities
to be “insurgents” in order to see for myself.
I arrived at the village of Ghilposte, in the Seres district, two days
after a Greek band had descended upon the little place, and I saw
with my own eyes traces of their terrible atrocities. They had blown
up ten houses by dynamite, and capturing four men, two women,
and a baby one year old, had deliberately burned them all alive, as
well as outraging three other women.
The leader of the Bulgarian organisation for the protection of the
defenceless people furnished me with a complete list of all the
atrocities committed by the Greek bands during the past year, but it
is so long and the details are so revolting that I do not feel justified
in including it in these pages.
The Turk is indeed a strange product. He hopes always to
persuade the foreigner into adopting his own views. More than once
I was told in Constantinople that there had been no massacres in
Macedonia this year, and that the country, especially in the vilayet of
Monastir, was quite quiet!
General Tzontcheff in Macedonia.
The Turkish Burial-ground at Scutari, Asia Minor.
I went there, and discovered the exact opposite to be the case. In

Constantinople also I was strongly persuaded, by interested persons,
not to go to Macedonia; but I went, and I saw things that it was not
intended that I should see.
I had travelled all through the Balkans in order to learn the real
truth, and I did not intend to miss out Macedonia. Turkey, of course,
makes capital out of the fact that the Vlachs, or Roumanian
population, are between the devil and the deep sea. These
unfortunate Macedo-Roumanians live under the cross fire of Greek
and Bulgar, each of whom claims the right to save their souls. The
Turks point—and perhaps justly—to this fact as one of the chief
causes of the present disturbed state of Macedonia. The Turk
pretends to be asleep, and to disregard the intrigues of the other
Powers, but the fact is that he is very wide awake, and knows quite
well that hostilities must break out at a very early date. Only he is
misled by Germany, alarmed by a bogey put forward by Austria and
Italy, and a little afraid, at times, of British protests.
There remains Roumania. Her attitude is a very serious
consideration in discussing the immediate future of the Balkans.
In Bucharest I found that, although a Federation of the Balkan
States would be welcomed, yet one fact is still remembered. In
1888, when the Bulgarians offered the crown of Bulgaria to King
Charles of Roumania, as the first step towards a Federation, both
Russia and Austria opposed it so strongly that the King was unable
to accept. Roumania’s position towards Macedonia is now one of
armed inactivity. Though the Macedo-Roumanians are slaughtered
by the Greek bands, Roumania is compelled to stay her hand and
offer no defence, because alone and unaided, her protest would be
worse than useless.
That she will, ere long, ally herself with Bulgaria against the Turks,
my confidential information goes to show. She desires a better
frontier from the Danube to the Black Sea, and in order to obtain
that concession from Bulgaria she will assist her to drive the Turk
from Macedonia.
There is, however, a far more serious consideration, and one
which has been overlooked by British statesmen and the British
public.
During my journey of inquiry I made careful investigation into
certain suspicious facts and certain clever intrigues. The inquiry was
an exceedingly difficult one, for the truth is well guarded, for very
obvious reasons.
The result, however, reveals a state of affairs of which we in
England have been unfortunately ignorant, and which, here exposed,
should claim immediate attention by every right-minded and patriotic
man.
The truth briefly is this. The recent war between Russia and
Japan, the question of Morocco, the perturbation in Europe by the
Russian defeats and revolution, on the one hand, and the weakness
of the Macedonians made greater by the rivalries between the
Balkan nations, on the other, have of late diverted the attention of
Europe from the Near East.
But this is only a lull before the storm—a storm that must break in
the near future, and which surely will have a world-wide significance.
The countries denominated by the general name of the Near East
are, by their geographical position and fertility, of immense
importance. They have been the cradle of the ancient civilisation and
of rich and powerful empires. The shores of the Ægean Sea and of
the Eastern Mediterranean were once the most populated, and their
commerce and wealth were unrivalled. The vast fertile provinces of
Asia Minor have been the granaries of the Roman and Byzantine
empires; while the valleys of Euphrates and Tigris breathed
abundance and luxury. History is eloquent testimony of their past
splendour. The reason of their gloomy present does not lie either in
the exhaustion of the soil or in the loss of their geographical
importance, but only in the administration which the Turk has
established for centuries over them. A change in the administration
will bring resurrection. Nay, the means and resources of the present
civilisation must call forth in them an immense economical
development.
Germany, with her usual foresight, has ever been on the alert.
Towards this Near East with gloomy present, but with a glorious
future, the German policy has thrown covetous eyes. When Bismarck
made his famous declaration—that the Eastern Question was not
worth the bones of a Pomeranian grenadier—the German policy was
already maturing a vast plan of penetration in the Near East. The
real truth is that the basis of this policy of penetration was the
maintenance of the Turkish rule, as a means for its realisation.
The true extent of German intrigue is not realised in England,
therefore I may as well explain that the policy was—
1. Support, and even encouragement, of the despotical régime in
Turkey, in order to obtain the absolute confidence of Sultan Hamid.
2. Grasp of the reorganisation of the Turkish Army, and use it as
her instrument.
3. Gain a dominant position in the Turkish finances.
4. Lay hold on the communications of the empire, and thus
become the master of her economical development.
A full expansion was given to this policy after the accession to the
throne of William II., who in his first visit to the Sultan in 1889 laid
the foundation of mutual friendship and admiration between the two
rulers.
The results are astonishing. In less than a quarter of a century the
German net has been cast over the whole body of the Turkish
Empire. German diplomacy is paramount to-day in Constantinople.
The Turkish Army has been reorganised upon the Prussian system,
and is under German control. The finances of the Turkish Empire are
gradually becoming a dependency to the German banks by loans
and concessions, which are constantly increasing. By the great
railway from the Bosphorus to the Persian Gulf, opening up by its
branches the most fertile provinces of Asiatic Turkey, Germany
becomes master of the economical development of this part of the
Sultan’s empire.
Thus the economical and political influence of the Germans has
been so much extended and has gained such a domination, that the
Turkish Empire is, in a sense, already a German protectorate. No act
of importance is possible in Turkey without the knowledge and
influence of Germany. Every act of Abdul Hamid is under the control
and direction of German diplomacy. Allemania bisum dostour
(“Germany is our friend”) is a saying which has penetrated even into
the mass of the Turkish nation, and the Kaiser has a full right to
boast himself as the protector and champion of the Mussulmans.
In the Balkan Peninsula, on the European side, the pioneer of the
German policy is the Austro-Hungarian Empire. By tradition, by its
dynasty, and by its alliance, Austria plays the rôle of vanguard to the
German advance towards the Near East. The occupation of Bosnia
and Herzegovina has made Austria a Balkan power, and her plans
are ready for the march of an Austrian army southward to the Gulf
of Salonica, which will bring her in touch with the Ægean Sea and
make her the ruler over the whole Peninsula. In the meantime, she
is strengthening her political and economical influence in Servia and
Albania by the same methods as used by the Germans.
In the midst of this land activity in the Near East, the importance
of the Ægean Sea, which is the necessary link, was not lost to view.
A footing was sought, and the island of Thassos was chosen as the
foundation-stone of the future naval power in the Eastern basin of
the Mediterranean. This island was picked upon because, in the first
place, it would not attract attention, and, in the second place,
because it would serve admirably the German plans. Thassos has a
good geographical position in the Ægean Sea. It is not far from the
Dardanelles, the door to Constantinople, and is very near the
Macedonian shore, being in the very entrance of the port of Kavala.
With a naval base on this island, Germany would gain a still
greater influence in Turkey, and especially on the European and
Asiatic shores of the Ægean Sea. According to trustworthy
information which I have obtained in confidence, a vast German
activity is contemplated upon these shores in the very near future.
Thus the Germans, with the aid of the Turkish régime and of the
Austrian Empire, are cleverly paving their way towards the Near
East, and preparing the foundation of a “Fatherland” stretching from
the Baltic to the Indian Ocean.
As Germany has already championed the cause of Turkey in
Europe, what is to prevent her from carrying her influence, at an
early date, over Egypt and the whole peninsula of India, where she
will find sixty millions of Mussulmans, who fully recognise that
England has abandoned her policy of bolstering up “the sick man”
for many years past? These latter would welcome Germany as the
champion of Mohammedanism, not only in Europe, but in all the
Mussulman states of the Eastern world.
And then?
Surely this is a most important point, which should very seriously
engage the immediate and earnest attention of all British statesmen
who have the true interests of our Empire at heart!
THE END.
Printed by
Morrison & Gibb Limited
Edinburgh
Transcriber’s Note
The author employs the name ‘Palagonium Radula’ for
the geranium, rather than the proper ‘Pelargonium
Radula’. This appears to be unique to him, but was
retained as printed.
Errors deemed most likely to be the printer’s have
been corrected, and are noted here. The references are
to the page and line in the original. The following issues
should be noted, along with the resolutions.
156.12 mid[d]le-aged, keen, Inserted.
clever
169.20 Chief town, [H/N]egotin Replaced.
170.24 the chief town is Replaced.
Pe[l/t]rovatz
170.39 in Kra[ni/in]a, East Servia. Transposed.
171.40 Podun[va/av]lye Transposed.
220.26 the geranium oil sic:
([Palagonium] Radula) Pelargonium
226.38 Have you received [i]t? Restored.
280.1 The entrance to the Removed.
Bosphoro[u]s.
294.31 the exhaustion of the Replaced.
Macedoni[o/a]n
population
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Calculus for Cognitive

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Part II Using One Variable

2.5 A Gentle Introduction to MatLab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

6.2 Simple Fractional Power Antiderivatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

9.3 The Exponential Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

12 Simple Protein Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229

15 Extreme Values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301

Part III Using Multiple Variables

20.5 Derivatives in Two Dimensions! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421

Part IV Summing It All Up

Part V Advise to the Beginner

Figure 1.1 Actual survival curve . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Figure 8.1 The area under the curve f . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131

Figure 11.1 Exponential data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

Figure 17.5 Repression and Degradation steady state values

Table 19.1 The Non CIN Pathway Approximations

Listing 1.1 How to add paths to Octave . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Listing 2.30 Our domesticated wheat model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 56

Listing 15.2 Loading The Data Into Matlab . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..... 310

Listing 20.9 Drawing a simple surface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 405

This present record of my observations in the Near East would be

“Recently there have been, to my knowledge, eight Christian

But alas! political intrigues from quarters with unfriendly

As summary of all my confidential inquiries throughout the Near

“For a period of six years armed bands of Bulgarians roved all

Thus it will be seen that the Prime Minister makes no mention of

I went there, and discovered the exact opposite to be the case. In

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Creating the works from print editions not protected by U.S.

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