ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter February 17, 2012
ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter February 17, 2012
ValuEngine Weekly Newsletter February 17, 2012
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MARKET OVERVIEW
Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500
started week
12799.11 2926.21 820 1343.06
Thursday Close
12904.1 2959.85 829.96 1358.04
4 day change
104.99 33.64 9.96 14.98
4 day change %
0.82% 1.15% 1.21% 1.12%
ytd
5.62% 13.62% 12.02% 7.99%
SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities
Change
1.26% 2.22% 1.54% 0.96% 1.35% 1.22% 0.96% 1.36% 1.28% 1.16% 1.07% 1.22% 1.05% 0.75% 1.50% 1.02%
MTD
1.09% 5.50% -0.10% 1.65% 4.77% 4.32% 3.64% 3.19% 2.92% 2.29% 2.94% 1.93% 4.21% 3.58% 4.50% 1.67%
YTD
7.33% 19.97% 11.68% 9.31% 15.55% 16.10% 12.13% 7.90% 10.61% 12.91% 11.10% 12.08% 8.69% 10.70% 13.46% 3.21%
Valuation
12.06% overvalued 4.48% overvalued 5.92% overvalued 6.15% overvalued 20.07% overvalued 1.75% undervalued 5.76% overvalued 11.20% overvalued 19.49% overvalued 12.36% overvalued 17.96% overvalued 16.49% overvalued 9.07% overvalued 18.35% overvalued 10.46% overvalued 12.25% overvalued
Last 12MReturn
-5.88% 19.73% -23.15% 2.29% -3.64% -14.09% -1.78% -6.10% N/A -3.58% -7.77% 6.49% -12.76% 5.87% -10.62% 0.20%
P/E Ratio
28.9 31.96 22.05 24.9 43.34 31.1 27.87 23.05 22.3 26.79 40.24 16.04 40.52 21.72 21.87 24.82
Name
NEVSUN RESOURCS KINROSS GOLD GEORGIA GULF BARRICK GOLD CP CHINA GERUI ADV
Mkt Price
3.9 11.1 34.44 48.17 4
Valuation(%)
-35.58 -43.53 -73.16 -7.4 -23.22
Name
NEVSUN RESOURCS VALE RIO DO-ADR CLIFFS NATURAL TECK RESOURCES COEUR DALENE MI
Mkt Price
3.9 25.33 68.67 39.55 28.08
Valuation(%)
-35.58 -11.01 -5.64 0.16 -30.84
Name
COEUR DALENE MI VISTA GOLD CORP CELANESE CP-A ANGLOGOLD LTD BARRICK GOLD CP
Mkt Price
28.08 3.53 51.79 42.65 48.17
Valuation(%)
-30.84 -52.76 -3.71 -16.12 -7.4
Name
ENDEAVOUR SILVR CLEAN DIESEL DAQO NEW ENERGY CHEMTURA CORP FIBRIA CELULOSE
Mkt Price
10.29 3.17 3.28 14.8 9.62
Valuation(%)
300 300 267.1 173.96 80.16
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Ticker
HEI TRW VALE MA WBMD CX LMCA SFD KEY HSC AMLN TXT MMR SHLD GLNG EBR LLL F
Company Name
HEICO CORP TRW AUTOMTV HLD VALE RIO DO-ADR MASTERCARD INC WEBMD HEALTH CP CEMEX SA ADR LIBERTY MDA-LC SMITHFIELD FOOD KEYCORP NEW HARSCO CORP AMYLIN PHARMA TEXTRON INC MCMORAN EXPLOR SEARS HLDG CP GOLAR LNG LTD ELETROBRAS-ADR L-3 COMM HLDGS FORD MOTOR CO
Sector
AEROSPACE AUTO TIRES TRUCKS BASIC MATERIALS BUSINESS SERVICES COMPUTERS TECHNOLOGY CONSTRUCTION CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY CONSUMER STAPLES FINANCE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS MEDICAL MULTI-SECTOR CONGLOMERATES OILS ENERGY RETAIL WHOLESALE TRANSPORTATION UTILITIES AEROSPACE AUTO TIRES TRUCKS
Sector Average
4.41 19.87 2.03 11.45 14.32 26.14 1.61 -1.00 15.11 11.38 32.91 22.23 9.90 42.51 8.68 6.06
Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2 Long 2
CLF ACN AOL TOL EA EL FCE.A DNPLY VPHM LUK RRC GMCR UPS TEF
CLIFFS NATURAL ACCENTURE PLC AOL INC TOLL BROTHERS ELECTR ARTS INC ESTEE LAUDER FOREST CITY A DAI NIPPON PRIN VIROPHARMA LEUCADIA NATL RANGE RESOURCES GREEN MTN COFFE UTD PARCEL SRVC TELEFONICA S.A.
70.24 53.49 15.04 22.42 17.74 57.54 11.64 10.11 29.47 25.1 54.53 50.87 73.65 17.21
68.67 58.45 18.8 23.5 17.77 56.08 15.47 10.48 32.31 29.08 63.37 69.05 76.76 17.02
-1.57 4.96 3.76 1.08 0.03 -1.46 3.83 0.37 2.84 3.98 8.84 18.18 3.11 -0.19
-2.24 9.27 25.00 4.82 0.17 -2.54 32.90 3.66 9.64 15.86 16.21 35.74 4.22 -1.10
BASIC MATERIALS BUSINESS SERVICES COMPUTERS TECHNOLOGY CONSTRUCTION CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY CONSUMER STAPLES FINANCE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS MEDICAL MULTI-SECTOR CONGLOMERATES OILS ENERGY RETAIL WHOLESALE TRANSPORTATION UTILITIES
18.52
1293.67 1358.04
64.37
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Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to [email protected] Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.984) My annual value is 2.502 with daily and weekly value levels at 2.055 and 2.038, and annual, quarterly and monthly risky levels are 1.903, 1.797, 1.687 and 1.347. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold--($1730.0) Semiannual, annual and weekly value levels are $1659.5, $1635.8, $1575.8, $1593.9 with daily, weekly and quarterly pivots at $1737.5, $1735.0, $1725.5 and $1740.9 and monthly risky level at $1816.4. Nymex Crude--($102.30) Monthly and semiannual value levels are $85.62 and $79.83 with my quarterly pivot at $99.87, and daily, weekly, semiannual and annual risky levels at $103.88, $104.54, $104.84, and $103.58 and $117.00. The Euro--(1.3137) Semiannual, weekly, monthly, and quarterly value levels are 1.2980, 1.2971, 1.2945, and 1.2499 with daily, and annual and semiannual risky levels at 1.3229, 1.4239 and 1.4405. Major Indices Equity Technicals ValuEngine shows that fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued ten by doubledigit percentages. The Computer and Technology sector is 20.1% overvalued with a PE ratio of 43.3 times. These statistics sounds bubbly to me! Meanwhile trading ranges remain in place. The S&P 500, Dow Transports and Russell 2000 remain below 2011 highs at 1370.58, 5627.85 and 868.57 respectively with the highs for Transports and small caps being all time highs. My overall neutral zone is between my quarterly value levels at 12,478 Dow Industrials, 1305.4 SPX and 2777 NASDAQ and quarterly / annual risky levels at 1363.2 S&P 500, 5448 Dow Transports and 836.15 Russell 2000.
Equity Fundamentals: 53.6% of all stocks are undervalued / 46.4% of all stocks are overvalued. Back on October 4th - 93.5% of all stocks were undervalued. Fifteen of sixteen sectors are overvalued; ten are overvalued by double-digit percentages (10.4% OV to 20.1% OV.) Back in March 2009 the sectors were undervalued by 33% to 45%. PE Ratios range from 16 times for Multi-Sector Conglomerates to 43.3 times for Computer and Technology. Sectors have shifted to Overvalued from Undervalued Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages Dow --(12,904) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 12,478, 12,312, 11,557, 8,425 and 8,336 with quarterly and daily pivot pivots at 12,796 and 12,887, and weekly and annual risky levels at 13,276 and 14,032. S&P 500--(1358.1) Quarterly, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1331.7, 1305.4, 1176.1, 841.7 and 829.9 with a daily pivot at 1356.4, and annual and weekly risky levels at 1363.2, 1391.9 and 1562.9. The May 2, 2011 high is 1370.58. NASDAQ (2960) Quarterly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2849, 2777, 2698, 2512, 2012 and 1952 with a daily pivot at 2954, and weekly and annual risky levels at 2984 and 3232. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2592) Quarterly, weekly, annual, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2471, 2422, 2412, 2300, 2280, 1851 and 1743 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 2599, 2610 and 2603. Dow Transports (5263) Monthly and semiannual value levels are 4522, 4407 and 3778 with a daily pivot at 5220, and weekly, quarterly, and annual risky levels at 5498, 5448, 5861 and 6111. The all time high was set at 5627.85 on July 11, 2011. Russell 2000 (829.96) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 819.06, 662.90, 572.90 and 510.81 with quarterly pivots at 824.46 and 829.03, and weekly, and annual risky levels at 843.28, 836.15 and 969.09. The all time high was set at 868.57 on May 2, 2011. The SOX (435.88) Quarterly, monthly, annual and semiannual value levels are 423.32, 390.17, 323.52, 269.80, 277.90 and 194.47 with a daily pivot at 431.79, and weekly and annual risky levels at 444.44 and 520.61. The 2011 high is 474.33 set on February 18, 2011.
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