bp

MacondoTechnicalNote
Title: Contributors: Pressures: Shut-in Rangeand Likelihood MikeLevitan, Debbie Kercho, FarahSaidi, SimonBishop, Yun Wang,CharlesBondurant, AndrewSweeney, Galina Skripnikova, DavidGrass,Pierre AndreDepret, Tony Laio, KellyMcAughan, ChrisCecil, Bob Merrill BobMerrill May20,2010 B - DRAFT

lssuedby: Date: Version:

Question,\ddressedin this TechnicalNote: As tslt is currentl-nevaluatinc optionsfbr the lrlacondo kill rvell.this techniti{l

quesrions: adclressestbllurvins tlre

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technical notedatedl7-\la.v. as rvellasyesterday's drall of tlris nu(e. We rverereeluested KateBakerto reconsider by thequestions light of continued in etTorts: L Havinghada chcance think on this are)'ou still satist'red the pr'rabilityy'ou to rvith described \Vednesday rvith the n'ork doneoverniglrt'l on and :. What*'ouldbe vourviewof probabilities you assume theGOR is if that i000 S('Fistbinstead 7500S('fistb'l of i. Following cornpletion I and3 create setof binsanddescribe probability of a the of such thatthel'sunr l00o,o:g oil8l00-8500. 10200-10700: onlv each to e gas l\,{57 I l-100. GOR=7.s00 9600psia:ancl rvitlr GOR i000. Ilavingconsidered questions. prohahilitv these additional the distrihutiorr irr ;rresented thisnoteis updated

"V53o
Exhibit No. Worldwide Court Inc.

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BP-HZN-21 79MD1021 151 81

BPD209-009308

crossflorv WHP. aniJ $'e c *CAP- rnodelrvhiclrmodelled Overniglrt wereableto create 'l'his rcsults u'crc iutlucntial. Tlrc Olgasintulation modclwas intcrrogated thc rcsults and r.vithin teant the available someadditional aud Olga runsrveleperlblnrecl trecaure reservoir from a detailed modelrvasstarted consider crosst-lorv to the A VIP simulation these perspective. Horvever. urudelwils not contpleted at:pru rtn 2tl-lrlav,anel this tindingsdo not incorporate thoseresults. Key Conclusions I -7.50t1 psiaand I I,i50 psia The SIW'HP espected lrelrenveen is to gas rr,'lriclr This ran-qe the high pressrrre zones. are considers impact shallou'er of fbundat depths betrveen 17.167 17.806 tlNlD-RKB. . Therew?sconsensus tlrcse zorles gas \!'erelikely to be opet but the that \vasan areaofuncertainty. contribution depletion and ofthesezones 'l'hc * o gas shallowcr zoncs 12.0.j0 I i.i20 ftlUD-RKts bchind are thc at lurgeol'SlWHP. l3:n inchlinerandurenut likelvto increase stated the This is The lower pressures occurlvhenthegaszorres not areallvexteusir,e. are quickh'. Although initiallvat a highpressure. deplete thegeologists' thev crosstlorv tionr tlreoil zonesr,vhen rvellis shut-inrvhichlorvers the establishing pressure. the rvellhcad 3. Tlreteanr wasre(luestetl estimate likelihood SIWHP.*...,lrrgl$ rppllffil' to the of

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811 BP-HZN-21 79MDL021 52

BPD209-009309

Tltese results alsoprovided are tabularll,: Pressure Rangr Probabitty Discrete psiaat wellhear to Exceed Probabilih
750C
100o/o
0o/o 60/o

Description Low Eslimales Oil+ 9ge66' Gas Sands Oil(GOR-3000 SF/stb) Oil+ LimiledGas Cil (GOR -7.500 SCF/stb)
Cil + 665

<800c
8000<P<850c

94Yo
69o/o 41o/o 24o/o 6o/.
2o/t

8500<P<900c
9000<P<950c

26ola 280k
'l$oln 18e/o 3o/o

Oil + extensive Gas sands lioh Pressure Gas column Hiohest estimates

9500<P<1000c 10000<P<1050c
1 0 5 0 0< F

11.350

0%

2o/. 001

l.

The Enterprise reported has considerable variationin the ga.s-oil ratioof the reco\red oil. These liont an initial1.850SCFlstb. CORsranr{e consistent theoil's PVT rvith data. almost to 7.500SCFistb. TheGORsshowan increasing trend. r o o The 7.500SCFlstb valueis consistent a calculated rvith SIWHPof -9.500psia. Tlte3.000SCFistb valueis cousistent team'sprevious the calculations oil rvith rvlrich resultin a SIIVIlP of '8.500 nsia. 'IIte lorverCOR is ntoreconsistent rvithareallv-limited sflnds !:as rvhichrvould

tlrervell o Tlreseqregation theoil andgasoccurs of witlrinthel{ horrrs fbllorvirrg slrrrt-in

Attnchments l. Pressurc Ranges ('alculation and Nlethods probabilities :. Nlethod Establishing tbr i. Tableof Formation Propenies 4. Thermal Cradierrt

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BP-HZN-21 79MDL021 153 81

BPD209-009310

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MethodUsedto DevelopCumulativeProbabilities
Tlte cuntulatir,c prol.rabilities deternrined rvere thrr;uqh pollin_g a prr)cess. The petroleunr cnd reservoir rverepresented nrodelresults. nrodelling engineers the the assunrptions. and the otherconsiderations I consrraints. Eachengineer asked consider rcngeofvalues(7500.8000,8500.q000.9500, r.vas to 0 10000, 10500, ll.i50 psia)and and in e.qtinratetheirou,nlrest;udgenrent prohabiliry the thatthe SIWHPnould erceedthat value, It rvasassurned the endpressures (7500. tlrtt I l.i50 psia) defined l00o,o tlre contideuce interv'al. Atier eachenrtineer r.vrote dorvntheir r,alues, thevu'erepolledin a randomorderfor their probability. These estin'lated rverethenaveraged create cumulative pernreabilir,v to a fbr curv'e eachpressure. Thc rcsultirtg cun'ervflsplotted. The statistics rvith cachpoint {afterthe 59i, associatcd shitt)areprovided the tbllou,ing in talrle:

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Page 5 of 7

Confidential { DATE \@ "M/d/yyyy" }

CONFIDENTIAL

BP-HZN-21 79MD1021 155 81

BPD209-009312

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