And The Winner Is
And The Winner Is
And The Winner Is
: Authoritarian Elections in the Arab World Author(s): Jillian Schwedler and Laryssa Chomiak Reviewed work(s): Source: Middle East Report, No. 238, Year of Elections: Fact and Fiction (Spring, 2006), pp. 1219 Published by: Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP) Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25164705 . Accessed: 05/03/2012 15:43
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Supporters of President fine al-AbidineBen Ali rally inTunis before the October 1999 presidential election. FETHI BELAID/AFP
And
the Winner
Authoritarian
Elections
The
administration of President George W Bush claims a commitment to promoting democratization in theArab world, whether through regime change or by pressuring authoritarian leaders through "transformational diplomacy" to open their political systems. It has been tempting for the administration'ssupporterstofind evidence for thesuccessof these Arab countries in 2005. policies in the spate of elections in United States assembly in Iraqwould not have occurred had the not invaded the country, but the ongoing military occupation and the flourishing of numerous armed groups outside of government control raise doubts about whether the outcomes really reflect the preferences of Iraqis. Arguably, US pressure played a role in keeping theMay-June elections in Lebanon
Certainly, December's elections for a four-year national
All this leads to a question: what do authoritarian regimes gain by holding bogus elections?1 Some leaderswho claim a commitment to democratization blame the lack of progress in their countries on, for example, the threatof radical Islam, the lack of viable political parties or instabilityresultingfrom weak
Yet virtually every regime embraces the language
economies.
held or called for elections of some kind, though the resulting assemblies have little actual power. If neither their citizens nor the international community are bedazzled by these great
performances,
of democracy and most hold regular elections. Even states that have long resisted the trend toward increased participa tion, such as Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, have
standing having taken place under Israelimilitary occupation. The US response to theHamas victory, however, betrays the to hypocrisy underlying Washington's exhortations democratize. US spokespersons were caught in the contradiction between on holding successful elections congratulating the Palestinians
and
on schedule, though the results there,which reinforced old confessional divisions, sapped the popular democratic energies that had earlier been on display. The US can also claim some credit for the January 2006 elections thatgaveHamas control of most what was clearly the thePalestinian Legislative Council, in democratic balloting the region had seen in decades, notwith
why
do
authoritarian
regimes
invest
scarce
bother?
Do Elections ProduceLegitimacy?
One
tions
slippery
term
that,
in
for consent
Lebanon and Palestine, there are good reasons forquestioning whether the fact ofmore or less democratic elections equates
to
denouncing
the victor
as a terrorist
organization.
In
Iraq,
Muhammad. They recurrentlydeploy symbols and rhetoric as the to that end?the Moroccan king portrays himself cratic them as such. For "Commander of the Faithful," while Jordan's King Hussein and no one mistakes measure, by any in current claimed a role as protector of the holy sites in Jerusalem. The states" such as elections and former years, "rogue a and Iraq under Saddam Hussein's rule have been mocked Syria ruling family in Saudi Arabia stakes different, religiously are. as the fraudulent has a based claim to moral authority, stemming from its role as for instance, practices Syria, they decades-long history ofmounting patently false elections for the protector of the holy cities ofMecca and Medina. All a domestic audience that is no more fooled than the interna threemonarchies have continuously presented themselves as tional one. Syrians "approve" thepresident every seven years by legitimate, though the consent of their subjects has been far referendum, and they "elect" the People's Council every four from constant, and they have held at best irregular legisla tive elections. (Certainly, they have not put themselves up in an years competition. ostensibly multi-party for election.) Charade-like elections are also the norm inUS-allied Arab The ruled might consent to other forms of undemocratic Palestine of Iraq, and Lebanon countries?the examples rule because of the popularity of a charismatic leader or a thepolicies of theBush administration notwithstanding?and have not changed this. Initially promising political openings political ideology. Egypt's Gamal Abdel Nasser was popular in Jordan,Tunisia and Yemen have since been emptied ofmost Arab world forhis pan-Arab nationalist project, throughout the and Tunisia's PresidentHabib Bourguiba won popular support while the formal trappings of electoral democracy substance, for his early policies of rapidmodernization. A regimemight and pluralism remain. The more recent openings ofMorocco also become popular by bringing an end to conflict, ousting and Egypt appear, upon closer inspection, to be littleconcerned an occupying force or to itscitizens. Finally, with broadening real participation. In 2005, Egypt promised a providing security an unpopular but militarily powerful regime might secure election and then adopted measures competitive presidential to ensure that a real contest could not happen. the appearance of consent of the ruled (or at least the absence of overt dissent) through the omnipresent threat of arbitrary Most
democracy.
them require the unencumbered choice between politicians vying for public support that the term "elections" implies. One possibility is that people recognize their leader as to possessing themoral authority to rule according religious Hashemite monarchy and Morocco's prescriptions. Jordan's Alaoui monarchy both claim the right to the throne based in part on claims of familial descent from the Prophet
Julian Schwedler teaches governmentand politics at the University of Maryland and is chair ofMERIP's board ofdirectors.Laryssa Chomiak isa doctoral student ingovern ment and politics at the University of Maryland. The authors thankSamirFayyaz,Marc on earlierdrafts. Lynch, Shana Marshall and Lisa Wedeenfor theirdetailed comments
that such a regimewas legitimate, but the regimewould most likely claim to be.
imprisonment
or worse.
No
independent
observer
would
say
13
shepard
sherbell/corbis
saba
Not
only
have
elections
been
unnecessary
for
gaining
de
Algeria's war
1991-1992
elections
threatened
to do
just
that,
the
summoned
anyone
the citizens
Surely
presidents
are eitherweak or entirely absent (Iraq and Palestine). The elections in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine all were held in
contexts each choose Palestine, where armed raising non-state questions candidates. to territory, of control portions to the ability of voters In the cases of and today's Iraq about long-term democratization?in militias
occupation,
existing
state
structures
freely among
the commitment
from other crises; to respond to foreign pressure; to display state power; and simply because they have held them in the
past. Multiple rationale rationales are often regime tends at for any one a in any play to shift over state, time. and the
Newly unified Yemen's elections in 1993 looked promising at the time. The People's Democratic Republic ofYemen and theYemen Arab Republic unified as theRepublic ofYemen in
1990, part of and the former regimes agreed efforts on a democratic to undermine system the electoral as of unification. Despite
process?through
assassination
incumbent
regime.
from the souths Yemeni Socialist Party?Yemenis returned an which no partywon amajority and independents assembly in won 48 of 301 seats.A brief civilwar in 1994 an abrupt brought to that process, however, when President Ali Abdallah end Salih's military defeated the leaders from the south.
national private investment to bolster the economy. Though regimesmight hold elections for purposes of distraction, the contestsmay indeed mark the initiation of a real democratic transition even if the regime never intends to cede any real power to the new assemblies. Elections held for these reasons
Distraction
Authoritarian other crises. These might include rapid price hikes while the regime is lifting subsidies in accordance with International or otherwise regimes may also hold elections initiate processes of democratization to distract citizens from
are not necessarily fake, although in practice the regimes typi structure the electoral systems and draw districts with cally a view toward producing the results theywant. After these initial openings, regimesmay continue to hold elections for
different reasons.
very
Monetary Fund recommendations, domestic political tensions like the arrest of a popular opposition figure, or international Authoritarian regimesmight also hold elections in response issues like allowing foreign troops to amass in preparation for to real or perceived foreign pressure, for example, ifan inter intervention in the region. Elections are initiated for strategic national agency or foreign statemade a lucrative aid package on or the toward reasons, as the regime hopes to channel opposition energy contingent progress improvement into state-controlled processes. This strategy has the added benefit ofmaking opposition forces both visible and subject to state regulations, such as the legal requirements for declaring or registeringas a candidacy political party. Jordan called for fullnational elections in 1989, thefirstsince the 1967Arab-Israeli war, largelyas a strategy distraction. The of had sufferedfrom the drop in oil prices Jordanian economy of the early 1980s and a decrease in labor remittances from of human rights. As the world s largestprovider of foreign aid, theUnited States should be in a unique position to put teeth the Middle into its declared commitment to democracy promotion East. in
democracy
Foreign Pressure
But while the Bush administration has indeed moved democratization to the center of debates about political reform in the Middle East, inpractice itcontinues to provide and even
Jordaniansworking in theGulf. By 1988, the regime devalued its dinar by half and adopted an IMF-led austerity program that included a reduction in certain subsidies. In April 1989, Jordanians rioted in response to the price increases,first in the south and then throughout the country.King Hussein called a
meeting of both conservative and reformist advisers to evaluate
the situation,with one side advocating repression and theother urging political liberalization to deflate growing opposition to
the regime.3 Seven months later, a newly restructured parlia
ment4 returned a pluralist, opposition-dominated assembly, and other advances followed, for example, the adoption of the National Charter codifying political rights,a reduction of state control over the media and the legalization of political parties. Morocco's King Hassan initiated a political Likewise, poor economic conditions. In particular, the regime hoped that the strategy of liberalization would deflate the increas ingly vocal urban, educated opposition calling for political reform.The monarch had previously relied on cooptation and divide-and-rule tactics to consolidate itspower, so itsdecision a
opening in the early 1990s in response to growing unrest around
to initiate a gradual political liberalization process marked saw significant turn. In a short time,Morocco significant constitutional reforms, first in 1992 and then again in 1996 municipal council members from at least 14provinces. Because with the establishment of a bicameral legislaturewith a popu both houses of Parliament and most local councils are domi nated by the rulingNational Democratic Party, "establishing larly elected lower chamber (replacing the indirectly elected unicameral parliament) and the creation of ad hoc commissions eligibilitywould be nearly impossible in practice."5 to on these means affairs. government investigate Washington remained largely silent "legal" As in Jordan, of electoral manipulation. of State Condoleezza Morocco's regime initiated a political opening Secretary a to to largely temper opposition while invitingdomestic and inter Rice did cancel trip Cairo in February 2005 to protest the MIDDLE EAST 238 REPORT SPRING 2006 15
dential candidacy erected significantobstacles, particularly for independents. A candidate unaffiliatedwith a registeredparty must obtain the signatures of at least 65 members of the lower house of Parliament, 25members of the upper house and ten
for
good
governance, and
greater
political of
accountability
the advancement
elections, while tacitlybacking dictator ships. The difference is that the Bush administration explicitly claims to be reversing the decades of double-talk about Arab democracy. A 2005 democ
racy and "Promote governance Free and program Fair Elections," for Egypt, stated,
the government
Egypt
informed
the urgent
the government
of Morocco
USAID
regime
strong relations by military aid.When with allied "friendly" Arab regimes clash
with the alliances Indeed, democracy are promotion always initiatives, preferred. seems
always
dwarfed
willing
toral in Voters try to enter a polling station blocked by riot police in the Delta town of Talkha, December 1, 2005. her
Washington
almost
processes
"friendly" opening
the House
arrestof opposition politician Ayman Nour on highly dubious and ran against President Husni Mubarak
in December he was convicted on the charges of fraud. Nour was released on bail two weeks later,
in September, but
charge and
Committee hearing on the fiscal 2006 Federal Secretary of State Rice budget, kept the glass half-full: "FromMorocco to Jordan to Bahrain,
we are
on Appropriations
was mild in tone, remains in jail. Scolding from Washington and aid to Egypt has not been suspended. Of course, the failure to put teeth into US aid to Arab years, various US
regimes is not unique to the Bush administration. For
trumped-up
seeing
elections
and
new
protections
for women
and
elections in Saudi Arabia, and a to open up decision by President Mubarak very important competition in Egypt's presidential elections." A year later, on selling "transformational diplomacy" at House hearings in the first-evermunicipal 2006 EAST REPORT 238 SPRING 16 MIDDLE
opening
toward
broader
participation
the fiscal 2007 budget, Rice did not even mention countries by name, perhaps because five US-allied
was no progress toward democracy in 2005
these there
in Morocco,
Jordan, Bahrain or Saudi Arabia. She also chose not to mention either the shenanigans preceding the Egyptian presidential race or the fraud and violence surrounding
the
Muslim
Likewise, in his 2006 State of the Union Address, Bush celebrated Egypt's electoral experi ences, declaring, "The great people of Egypt have voted Brotherhood.
in a
parliamentary
elections
that
returned
88
seats
for
the
Academic
Freedom 11
government should open paths of peaceful opposition that will reduce the appeal of radicalism." The second half of
the sentence but might the word be taken as an oblique makes reproach it clear of the regime, "radicalism" that, given
multi-party
presidential
election?and
now
their
after September
In the aftermath 11, 2001,
Brotherhood,
the US
Asserting Power
As the presidential elections inEgypt illustrate, authoritarian which the outcome is so regimes sometimes hold elections in manipulated and over-determined that it seems unlikely that the regime expects anyone to be fooled by the charade. No real competition ispossible and the victory of the incumbent
regime is a foregone conclusion. The regime uses not only
infrastructure of surveillance, intervention, and control. Are the dark clouds academic hovering over storm, a structural a key societies? life a passing
electoral engineering and gerrymandering, but finds various ways of eliminating all viable opposition before winning in a landslide. United Yemen's first presidential elections illustrate this
process well.7 By 1999, President Salih was Yemen auto
facing the system of higher education providing a solid platform Contributors include Joel Beinin,
United States,
cratically, just as he had ruled theYemen Arab Republic from 1978 until 1990.Two months before the election, a united oppo
sition announced its intended candidate, the secretary-general
ruling
Doumani,
Kathleen Strum.
"[This
book]
interested
in the
Yemeni Socialist Party, Ali Salih 'Ubad "Muqbil." Few in of the the opposition believed Muqbil had a chance ofwinning even iffairelections were held. Yemen had a requirement, borrowed from the Tunisian judicial codes, that every candidate must be approved by 10 percent of the sitting parliament; Muqbil did
candidate, a choice Salih Najib between Qahtan two won al-Shaabi. candidates 96.3 Yemenis from of were
University
"This
is a vital and
timely book....
These
not meet the threshold. Salih's party then put forth its own
"alternative" thus offered party, did As and the same the vote.
September
strategies
Rashid
Khalidi,
University
unsurprisingly
percent
occasion
announce
its power.
the regime
effectively has
demonstrated
that no
alternatives
ZONE
Zone Books are available at all fine bookstores or directly from our or e-mail distributor, The MIT Press. Please call 1-800-405-1619 [email protected]. Visit our web site at www.zonebooks.org.
also
used
sham
elections
to demon
strate itspower. Optimism marked Zine al-Abidine Ben Alis ouster of "president-for-life"Bourguiba in a bloodless coup on November 7, 1987. Ben Ali pledged to introduce political MIDDLE 238 EAST 2006 REPORT SPRING 17
competition,
free elections
and
greater
freedom by releasing
of
arrest,
like
former
unionist Habib Achour, and in jail, like Islamist leaderRachid Ghannouchi. But Ben Ali also coopted personnel and rhetoric
from that could the opposition, the presence ensuring not threaten the regime. seriously term in a of "alternatives"
On October
consecutive
Of the reported 90 percent of voters who turned out, 94.48 percent endorsed him. He had introduced a constitutional
amendment and in eliminating was the measure 2002. In that the three-term in a three allowed limit landslide for presidents, referendum "approved" contest, had been
five-year
May
opposition
candidates
communist Tajdid Party, openly criticized the election, after winning only 0.95 percent of the vote. Mohamed Bouchiha, the secretary-general of the Popular Unity Party and also a relative of Ben Alis wife, received 3.78 percent, and Mounir Beji of the Liberal Social Party gained 0.79 percent.8
Like the "alternative" candidate in Yemen, these challengers
to two in 1999 and none in 1994 and 1989. Of the three leader of the ex challengers, only Mohamed Ali Halouani,
did not oppose the platforms of Ben Ali or his party, nor did they have any significant political following. The inclusion
of government-approved candidates posing in these the 2004 who was that illustrated presidency are available. alternatives Following an Marzouki, opposition figure to the challenge no real "contests," election, not Moncef to no real
Middle East for $22?more than40percent depthanalysisof the off the regular price (Youget the same percentagediscount if
you're inCanada or overseas.)
Now through April 30, 2006, new readers can get a year's worth of in
allowed
participate, described Ben Ali's three-pronged policy thusly: "To remain indefinitely in power, to remain indefinitely in
power, to remain indefinitely in power."9
Trapped!
A final consideration is that authoritarian regimes that have
held elections in the
past?for
any
combination
of reasons?
may
be
an
State/Province/Country
authoritarian
leader
for purposes of regime preservation. With the expanding embrace of democratic norms and rhetoric (if not global
actual democratic
even recognizably bogus elections may be particularly high for US-allied regimes. With the Gulf war of 1990-1991, Jordan's King Hussein found himself politically and economically isolated, particu unilateral severing of aid to the larly with Washington's kingdom for failing to join theUS-led coalition. Although political freedoms continued to expand with the drawing of theNational
practices),
the
symbolic
cost of
abandoning
City
State/Province/Country
Code ZIP/Postal
Charter, the legalization of political parties and the liberalization of print media, the king struggled
Massachusetts Ave. NW,Suite 119 MERIP, 1500 Clip thiscouponandmail to Washington, DC 20005. Offer expires April30, 2006.
toward the treatybuilt, the regime held to its commitment of regular elections but implemented a number of reforms to ensure that theNovember 1993 ballot would return an Middle East, primarily because they concluded peace treaties The 1997 elections were with Israel. The Bush administration strengthened its rela assembly willing to ratify the treaty. tionswith Yemen in large part to pursue radicals connected, also held on schedule, but were marred by a boycott led by to two former prime ministers and theMuslim Brotherhood however al-Qaeda. loosely, the false rhetoric of democracy will have the unin Islamic Action Front. The scheduled 2001 dominated Perhaps tended consequence of educating liberal democratic citizens elections were postponed until June 2003, due to tensions 11attacks and the popularity of that they indeed possess rights, including the right to have surrounding the September the second Palestinian intifada in the kingdom. Indeed, the even its carefully constructed regime seemed unsure whether time, citizens will negotiate the limited political spaces that have clearly been created by these openings until they can effectivelydemand reforms from the arbitrary regimes. More likely, in the near term these regimes will remain in power as long as they have themeans to do so. Moving beyond the theatrical performances of elections by authori tarian regimes will require that those means be removed
and democratic alternatives made available. The citizens representative and accountable governments. Perhaps, over
regimes allied with the United States hold elections whose results are equally suspect, though regular may receive praise and encouragement from they Washington. Egypt and Jordan are amongWashington s closest allies in the authoritarian
virtually every substantive dimension of the 1989 opening, save (mostly) regular parliamentary elections. But as long
as elections are commitment the held, regime to democratization. can continue to claim a
elections systemwould return an assembly thatwould not suspend the peace treaty.Jordan's regime has thus reversed
Similarly, inYemen, following the 1994 civil war and the consolidation of Salih's regime, elections no longer served a practical role inmediating among competing political forces. The ruling General Party Congress blatantly manipulated the 1997 elections through vote buying, intimidation and an electoral agree abandoning significant portions of ment with the Islamist Yemeni Congregation for Reform (al-Tajammu' al-Yamani lil-Islah), its former partner in the 1993 coalition government with the Socialists and following the 1994 conflict. Salih continues to call Yemen an "emerging
name he
more substantive, therefore, the source of billions of dollars in annual aid must insist on substantive political openings. Bush spoke in the 2006 State of the Union address of a commitment to supporting democratic reform across the broader Middle East: "Elections are vital, but they are only
and protection of minorities, and strong, accountable institu
authoritarian Arab regimes are and subjects of US-allied not bamboozled by bogus elections, and extensive polling indicates that the preference for democratic alternatives is overwhelming. To pressure these regimes tomake elections
democracy"?a
Democratic
democratic
adopted
from
1997
National
states beginning
were compara
1994 conflict, Salih's regime has thoroughly consolidated its power through the personalization of his rule as well as through the provision of pork. Although diverse political parties have formed a united opposition bloc to challenge
the only game in town.10
was due in tively freer, but this large part to the fact that the possibility of a genuinely competitive affair had been foreclosed. Since the demise of the Socialists following the
tions that last longer than a single vote." These are the right words, but theUS needs to back them up. Only thenmight themany democratic reformers in theArab world find their way into power?through Endnotes
our broader examinationof thisquestion, 1 We are indebtedto LisaWedeen for inspiring Events in which sheexploresin "SeeingLike aCitizen,ActingLike a State:Exemplary Unified inSociety History 45/4 (October 2003). See also her earlier and Yemen," ComparativeStudies account ofphony electoralritualsin and Symbols Domination: Politics, Rhetoric of Ambiguities inContemporary Syria (Chicago:UniversityofChicago Press, 1999). 2 See, forexample, Dankwart Rustow, "Electionsand Legitimacy in the Middle East,"Annals American Political Science482 (November 1985). of the Academy of 3 See Malik Mufti, "Elite Bargains and theOnset of Political Liberalization in Jordan," Political Studies 32/1(February1999). Comparative seatsforthe 4 The previous system West Bank, over which providedhalfof theparliamentary thekingdom had relinquisheditsclaim in 1988. Middle East ReportOnline, 5 Mariz Tadros, "Egypt'sElection All About Image,Almost," September6, 2005. 6 A partialexceptionisthe November 2005 withdrawalof a $20millionMillennium Challenge Account grantto Yemen, on thegroundsofYemen'sinsufficient progressinfighting corruption. Millennium Challenge Accounts?a formofUS democracypromotion assistance?are ad ministeredby thequasi-governmental Millennium Challenge Corporation,which isoverseen of USAID director. by a board of directors includingthe secretary stateand the 7 This analysisdraws heavilyon Wedeen, "SeeingLike a Citizen, Acting Like a State." vs. theAuthoritarian 8 This sectiondraws on JohnEntelis, "TheDemocratic Imperative Middle East Journal 59/4 Impulse: The Maghrib State betweenTransition and Terrorism," (Autumn2005). 9 Ibid., p. 551.
The cases of Jordan and Yemen illustrate how regimes use elections to produce different political outcomes, might and how these dynamics can change dramatically from one contest to the next. But for US-allied regimes, one compelling reason to continue to holding bogus elections is maintain, at the very least, a fa?ade of democratic progress that can be as as by the Bush administra championed by the regimes well not legitimacy, but the appropriation thereof. tion. This is
Back It Up
While decades of meaningless elections in Syria, Libya and Saddam's Iraq deserve the ridicule they receive,many other
10 Sheila "How Yemen's Ruling Party Secured an Electoral Landslide," Middle Carapico, East Report Online,May 16,2003.