Budget Overview
Budget Overview
Budget Overview
8 MAY 2012
Commonwealth of Australia 2012 ISBN 978-0-642-74806-5 This publication is available for your use under a Creative Commons BY Attribution 3.0 Australia licence, with the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, third party content, diagram on page 27 and where otherwise stated. The full licence terms are available from http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/ legalcode.
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CONTENTS
Budget at a glance Returning to surplus is important Sending a strong message of confidence One of the worlds strongest economies The resources boom and the Asian Century Spreading the benefits of the boom Helping households with the cost of living Helping parents with the cost of school Improving living standards in retirement Historic step to a National Disability Insurance Scheme A new way of delivering disability care and support Supporting businesses to invest and compete Additional support for small business Strengthening Australian industry Building our nations infrastructure Moving to a clean energy future Conserving Australias iconic environment Better dental services for those in need Living Longer. Living Better: aged care reform Better health services for all Australians Investing in regional hospitals and health care Expanding access to high quality training 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Reducing barriers to work Expanding opportunity for all students Delivering excellence in education Stronger Futures in the Northern Territory Continuing efforts to Close the Gap Advancing our national security interests Investing in Defence priority capabilities Engaging with our region and beyond Strategic investment in border security Commemorating the Centenary of Anzac Investing in our future sporting champions Targeted spending cuts A better and fairer tax system Appendix A Australian Government budget aggregates Appendix B Assessment against the fiscal target Appendix C Helping households with the cost of living Appendix D Lowering the tax burdens of Australians Appendix E Major initiatives in the 2012-13 Budget Appendix F Major savings in the 2012-13 Budget Appendix G Australian Government taxation and spending Appendix H Detailed economic forecasts Appendix I Historical budget and net financial worth data 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
Budget at a glance
We are returning the budget to surplus while ensuring families and small businesses are sharing in the benefits of the resources boom.
A return to surplus
The Government is returning the budget to surplus on time and as promised. Despite a $150 billion loss of tax receipts since the GFC, over the five years to 2012-13, the budget forecasts strengthening surpluses in each of the next four years with a $1.5 billion surplus in 2012-13. Returning to surplus is appropriate with the economy expected to grow around trend. It will allow monetary policy to respond to economic developments as appropriate. It is also our best defence in uncertain times and when the global economy is changing dramatically. It sends a clear sign of the strength of the Australian economy when many other countries are still struggling to recover from the GFC and recent global instability.
from the need to lodge a tax return. Small businesses will benefit from new tax breaks such as the instant asset write-off and the new loss carry-back.
Underlying cash balance ($b)(a) Per cent of GDP Fiscal balance ($b) Per cent of GDP (a) Excludes expected Future Fund earnings.
Real GDP 3 3 1/4 3 3 3 Employment 1/2 1 1/4 1 1/2 1 1/2 1 1/2 Unemployment rate 5 1/4 5 1/2 5 1/2 5 5 Consumer price index 1 1/4 3 1/4 2 1/2 2 1/2 2 1/2 Nominal GDP 5 1/2 5 5 1/4 5 1/4 5 1/4 (a) Real and nominal GDP are year average growth. Employment and CPI are through-the-year growth to the June quarter. The unemployment rate is the rate in the June quarter.
OVERVIEW
still around historical highs. In these circumstances, returning the budget to surplus in 2012-13 is appropriate. This is being achieved despite tax receipts in the five years to 2012-13 being $150 billion lower than was expected before the GFC. The recovery in tax receipts has also been slow despite the solid growth in the economy following the GFC. While this is a disciplined Budget, it also focuses on our key priorities and ensures funds are directed to the purposes and people who need them the most. We have taken $33.6 billion in saves in this Budget, making room for priorities like $5 billion in new payments to low and middle income households.
$billion
OVERVIEW
A budget surplus is a key component of this preparation. Surpluses strengthen the Governments balance sheet and rebuild our fiscal reserves to create a buffer in uncertain global economic times. This buffer will provide the Government with more options to respond, if necessary, in the most effective way to unexpected changes in the domestic and global economy.
A bright outlook
Australia has a bright future in the fastest growing part of the global economy. Emerging Asias unprecedented demand for resources, coupled with continued strong demand from traditional markets such as South Korea and Japan, underpins our historically high terms of trade and our unprecedented pipeline of resources investment. Our strong ties with emerging Asia mean we have many new opportunities to prosper in the Asian Century.
110
110
Index (Jun-08=100) Index (Jun-08=100) 110 Australia Australia 105 United States States United 100
110
12 10 8
Per centPer cent 12 12 euro area euro area 10 United States States United 8 Canada Canada 6 10 8 6 4
105
105
105
100
100
100
6
95
95 Japan
95
Australia Australia
OVERVIEW
More broadly, a shift towards knowledge based services has been occurring for several decades. This has been driven by higher incomes and demographic and technological change.
These policies include our $36 billion investment in roads, rail and ports which support the physical economy and building the National Broadband Network to ensure we benefit from the digital economy. We are building on our $3 billion investment in skills in the 2011-12 Budget by delivering lasting reforms to the national training system. In April we agreed a $1.75 billion partnership with the states on skills reform and in this Budget we are providing a further $101 million in related initiatives. Undergraduate places are now fully uncapped at all public universities for the first time, driving an increase of 150,000 students this year compared to 2007 levels.
Per cent
100
Advanced economies
75
50
25
Increase in FTB-A
Increase in FTB-A
$600 $300
$100
$200
Family receiving base rate Increase in FTB-A for one child family
Family receiving maximum rate Increase in FTB-A for family with two or more children
OVERVIEW
in March and September, with the first payment to commence on March 2013.
Super contribution for low income earners Tripled the tax-free threshold
SEP 09 JUL 11 JAN 12 MAY 12 JUL 12 MAR 13 JUL 13 JUL 15 Increased rates of FTB-A for children aged 16-19 years old First payment of Supplementary Allowance Increases to FTB-A Clean Energy Advance payments begin
Child Care Rebate cap increased from $4,354 to $7,500 per annum
Schoolkids Bonus
Schoolkids Bonus
Additional Schoolkids Bonus $426 Additional Schoolkids Bonus $201 Average ETR claim 2010-11 $209 Primary school student
$200 $100 $0
Average ETR claim across all eligible families (2010-11) and Schoolkids Bonus amounts
OVERVIEW
Increase in retirement savings $250,000 Current wage $30,000 Current wage $70,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0
Current age 20
Current age 30
Current age 40
Current age 50
An NDIS
An NDIS will involve fundamental changes to the way disability care and support is provided in Australia. An NDIS will have wide-ranging benefits. It will provide ongoing individualised support to people with significant and permanent disability that will take into consideration a persons aspirations for participation and work, support requirements and needs of their carers. It will provide peace of mind to all Australians; if they or a loved one have a significant or permanent disability they will be looked after.
Individual Plan
Takes into account aspirations and future needs
Funded Support
Aids and equipment Personal care and support Choice over design and delivery
Person
Client-centred approach for people eligible for individualised NDIS funded support
10
OVERVIEW
Assessment process
Those most in need people with significant and permanent disability will have access to an assessment that develops an individual support plan with funding allocated for reasonable and necessary supports.
Increased services
Increased formal care services will include in home support and respite care and early intervention services to improve functioning and delay or lessen a decline in functioning. Support provided by an NDIS would build on broader community supports, mainstream services and an individuals family support networks. An NDIS is not intended to replace the important care and support provided by families and informal carers, but to help make it more sustainable.
Case management
Local Area Coordinators will work with clients, providing information needed to make informed decisions in navigating the system and assisting in planning. They will oversee the delivery of appropriate local supports and services, monitor progress of the client and work to ensure that people with disability are fully included in their communities.
Meal preparation Transport Reading or writing tasks Communication Mobility Self-care 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Number of people across Australia not receiving assistance when needed
Unmet need for people with profound or severe disability requiring help with basic tasks
OVERVIEW
11
Loss carry-back
The Government will introduce loss carry-back to support businesses to return to profit. In 2012-13, companies will be able to carry back tax losses of up to $1 million
Number 98,000
Number
12
OVERVIEW
Construction Financial and insurance services Rental, hiring and real estate services Professional, scientific and technical services Agriculture, forestry and fishing Retail trade Administrative and support services Transport, postal and warehousing Other services Health care and social assistance Manufacturing Accommodation and food services Wholesale trade Arts and recreation services Education and training Information media and telecommunications Public administration and safety Mining Electricity, gas, water and waste services
Per cent 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
13
workforce skills to help manufacturing move up the value chain. To enable manufacturers to compete globally, the Government is introducing the $30 million Manufacturing Technology Innovation Centre. The new Centre will encourage businesses and researchers to work together to improve business performance and realise new market opportunities. The Government is supporting business transformation, energy efficiency, and research and development in low pollution technologies through the Clean Technology Program and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. The extension of Enterprise Connect business support services to tourism
will help operators to identify new growth markets. Accelerated assistance under the Steel Transformation Plan will help Australian steel manufacturers become more competitive and sustainable.
50 40 30 20 10 0
Per cent
50 40 30 20 10 0
Income
Productivity
Jobs
Innovating businesses are more likely to report improved business outcomes (Percentage of businesses reporting increases in shown indicators)
14
OVERVIEW
$average
$average
NSW
Vic
NT
ACT
15
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Per cent
Black coal
Brown coal
Gas CCS
Renewables
16
OVERVIEW
Since 2008, the Government has approved over $2 billion to achieve an environment that is healthier, better protected, well-managed, resilient, and provides essential ecosystem services in a changing climate. Caring for our Country Highlights Phase 1 Through Reef Rescue more than 1100 farmers and more than 480 pastoralists received grants to improve water quality. 67 new properties and 25 new Indigenous Protected Areas have been added to the National Reserve System, increasing the protection of under-represented bioregions by over 7.6 million hectares. Over 680 Indigenous rangers have been contracted under the Working on Country Indigenous ranger program, to manage significant environmental outcomes.
17
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
14 12 10 8 6 4 2
<$12,000
$12,000 <$20,000
$20,000 <$30,000
$30,000 <$40,000
$40,000 <$60,000
$60,000 <$80,000
18
OVERVIEW
Number ('000)
Number ('000)
2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22 Additional Home Care packages under aged care reforms
19
Operate the Personally Controlled Electronic Health Record (PCEHR) system. This builds on $466.7 million in the 2010-11 Budget to establish the PCEHR system.
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
$billion
Estimates/projections
$billion
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
2015-16
20
OVERVIEW
21
Skills Reform
Equity & Efficiency
Support for disadvantaged students Incentives for higher completions
Access
Transparency
Quality
Better data collection, sharing and publication New Unique Student Identifier
22
OVERVIEW
The Governments $41 million response to the final report of the Advisory Panel of the Economic Potential of Senior Australians includes $10 million for new Jobs Bonuses to help tackle age discrimination and encourage businesses to employ older Australians. The new $1,000 Jobs Bonus will be introduced for employers who recruit and retain a mature age jobseeker for three months. This initiative will be coupled with a $15.6 million extension of the successful Corporate Champions program to provide support to employers who wish to promote mature aged employment at their workplace.
50 40 30 20 10 0
Per cent
Per cent
50 40 30 20 10 0
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
Percentage of unemployed persons who are long-term unemployed by age group (March 2012)
OVERVIEW
23
Early Childhood
Research suggests that a childs first five years set a course for the rest of their life. The Australian Government, in partnership with state and territory governments, is making a record
Schools
In addition to delivering a computer for every year 9 to 12 student and upgrading facilities at schools across the country, the Government is tackling educational disadvantage.
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
$billion
Estimates/projections
$billion
6 5 4 3 2 1
2003-04
2015-16
Commonwealth spending on the child care system and child care fee assistance
24
OVERVIEW
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
$billion
Estimates/projections
$billion
7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2005
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Additional funding from uncapping (estimated)
25
Community Safety, Remote Policing and Alcohol Abuse $695 million Food Security $41 million Housing $283 million Municipal and Essential Services $206 million Education and employment $603 million
Alice Springs Transformation Plan $13.7 million Child, family and community services $442 million
26
OVERVIEW
Access to services
To underpin improvements that need to be made in remote areas, the Government is providing $43.4 million in 2012-13 for remote municipal services, and $21.2 million over four years to work with the Queensland Government for major infrastructure works in the Torres Strait. Indigenous people will also benefit from $48.6 million for integrated health services, funded through the second regional-specific round of the Health and Hospitals Fund, and $30.6 million over four years for 200 culturally appropriate aged care places.
unique and significant place of our first peoples. This includes around $80 million over four years: to establish a free-to-air Indigenous television channel, which will have national reach; to support the Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies; and to continue to build understanding and support for constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians.
Safe, healthy and supportive family environments with strong communities and cultural identity
Improved wealth creation and economic sustainability for individuals, families and communities
27
$ per capita
$ per capita
US
Australia
UK
France
Canada
Italy
Germany
Japan
China
2010 Military Expenditure (US$2010) Per Capita for Australia, G7 countries and China
28
OVERVIEW
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
$billion
$billion
35 30 25 20 15 10 5
29
0.25 2007-08
2010-11
2013-14
0.25 2016-17
30
OVERVIEW
Investing in biosecurity
The Government is investing strongly in Australias biosecurity system, including: $380 million over seven years to construct a new Commonwealth operated post-entry quarantine station, allowing industry to continue to safely import animals and plants into Australia while protecting our agricultural industries and the environment; $144 million over four years to continue to manage risks to the environment and agriculture; and $96 million over seven years to support eradication programs for nationally significant agricultural and environmental pests and diseases.
Number
Number
2004-05
2005-06
2010-11
31
1998-2004
2005-2012
Average Anzac Day Dawn Service attendance at the Australian War Memorial
32
OVERVIEW
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
70 60 50 40 30 20 10
1896
1912
1928
1948 Gold
1960 Silver
1972 Bronze
1984
1996
2008
33
Ensuring balance
We are returning the budget to surplus through targeted spending cuts, which retain fairness, place the budget on firmer ground and achieve better value for taxpayers money. Over $33.6 billion in saves have been identified in this Budget with less than half being tax. This builds on the over $100 billion of savings we identified over the last four Budgets. In making these decisions we have applied our core values of protecting the most vulnerable in our community and the frontline services Australian families rely on. We remain committed to providing the skills for tomorrows workforce and
continuing to improve our health and education systems. By focusing on fairness and value for money the Government has been able to prioritise spending to people most in need.
items that can be used in place of more expensive medicines. This will save $163.5 million, which is on top of the $1.9 billion in savings we have negotiated with the sector. The Government is also better targeting the safety net arrangements under the Medicare Benefits Schedule including reducing opportunities for practitioners to charge excessive fees. This will save $96.5 million over four years. We are better targeting support under the Family Tax Benefit system by limiting access to FTB-A to children under 18 or in full time secondary school.
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
$billion
$billion
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
Savings identified since the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 2011-12
34
OVERVIEW
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
$30,000
$30,000
$0
Change in concession for superannuation contributions, 2012-13 (cents per dollar of contributions)
Change in concession for superannuation contributions, 2012-13 (average dollar value of total concession)
OVERVIEW
35
APPENDIX A
Receipts(a) Per cent of GDP Payments(b) Per cent of GDP Future Fund earnings Underlying cash balance(c) Per cent of GDP Revenue(a) Per cent of GDP Expenses Per cent of GDP Net operating balance Net capital investment Fiscal balance Per cent of GDP Memorandum item: Headline cash balance
2011-12 $b 330.0 22.3 371.3 25.1 3.0 -44.4 -3.0 336.4 22.8 373.7 25.3 -37.3 4.7 -42.0 -2.8 -48.4
2013-14 $b 392.5 24.0 387.3 23.7 3.2 2.0 0.1 402.2 24.6 398.5 24.4 3.7 1.0 2.6 0.2 -6.8
(a) Includes expected Future Fund earnings. (b) Equivalent to cash payments for operating activities, purchases of non-financial assets and net acquisition of assets under finance leases. (c) Excludes expected Future Fund earnings.
36
OVERVIEW
APPENDIX B
2011-12 $m Effect of policy decisions since MYEFO (a) Spends Saves Payments Non-tax Receipts Tax Receipts Total effect of policy decisions since MYEFO Add Contingency Reserve offsets to policy decisions Net budget impact of policy decisions
(a) On an underlying cash basis.
Projections 2014-15 2015-16 $m $m -6,695 9,187 4,144 312 4,730 2,491 -6,801 11,323 4,949 316 6,058 4,522
27 -2,674
126 3,050
191 4,125
2,425 4,916
3,080 7,603
5,849 17,019
OVERVIEW
37
APPENDIX C
Estimated improvement in the real disposable incomes and net tax thresholds of different household types from 2007-08 to 2012-13 (a)
Household type (wage as a percentage of the average wage) 2007-08 Single person (67%) Single person (100%) Single person (167%) Sole parent (0%) Sole parent (67%) Single income couple (133%) (c) Single income couple (167%) (c) Dual income couple (100% & 33%) Dual income couple (100% & 67%) Single income couple with children (100%) Single income couple with children (133%) Single income couple with children (167%) Dual income couple with children (100% & 33%) (d) Dual income couple with children (100% & 67%) (d) Dual income couple with children (167% & 100%) (d) Single pensioner (0%) (e) Pensioner couple (0% & 0%) (e) $35,922 $49,968 $77,063 $29,800 $50,615 $66,645 $79,405 $69,617 $85,890 $60,302 $72,519 $84,990 $78,155 $95,483 $133,135 $16,087 $26,514 Real disposable income ($2011-12) 2012-13 (b) $39,434 $54,419 $83,614 $31,901 $54,698 $71,324 $85,966 $76,606 $93,853 $64,422 $77,954 $87,964 $86,328 $102,072 $145,312 $19,726 $29,741 % change 9.8% 8.9% 8.5% 7.1% 8.1% 7.0% 8.3% 10.0% 9.3% 6.8% 7.5% 3.5% 10.5% 6.9% 9.1% 22.6% 12.2% 2007-08 $20,508 $20,508 $20,508 $56,676 $56,676 $36,822 $36,822 $38,135 $38,264 $56,676 $56,676 $56,676 $67,331 $71,442 $70,663 $30,175 $49,151 Real net tax threshold ($2011-12) 2012-13 (b) $22,328 $22,328 $22,328 $59,605 $59,605 $37,771 $37,771 $39,194 $40,860 $59,605 $59,605 $59,605 $73,397 $80,603 $79,494 $34,123 $60,457 % change 8.9% 8.9% 8.9% 5.2% 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 6.8% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 9.0% 12.8% 12.5% 13.1% 23.0%
(a) The average weekly ordinary time earnings (AWOTE) for full-time employees is used as the average wage. Disposable income is the sum of private income and government cash transfers less net tax paid. The net tax threshold is the private income above which taxes paid exceed cash benefits received. Families with children have two children, aged 3 and 8 years. Families hold Private Health Insurance cover. (b) Inclusive of the Clean Energy Advances which are paid to assist households with the impact of the carbon price in 2012-13. (c) The spouses of single income couples without children are 60 years old. Consequently, their partners may be eligible for the Dependant Spouse Tax Offset. (d) The hourly rate of child care is $5.70 per hour in 2007-08 and $7.30 per hour in 2012-13. For the calculation of real disposable incomes, the younger child is in long day care for 2 days, 4 days and 5 days per week for families earning 100% & 33%, 100% & 67% and 167% & 100%, respectively. For the calculation of net tax thresholds, the hours of care are consistent with the income of the second earner. The older child is not in care. (e) In calculating net tax thresholds, income is assumed to be from investments which earn a rate of return, equal to the current deeming rates. The calculations include the effects of the assets test.
38
OVERVIEW
APPENDIX D
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2012-13
Total income tax benefit as % of tax paid (including ML) in 2007-08 100% 100% 51% 32% 36% 31% 24% 20% 16% 12% 10% 8% 6% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 10% 9% 8% 6%
Income Taxable Income ($) 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 110,000 120,000 130,000 140,000 150,000 160,000 170,000 180,000 190,000 200,000 250,000 Tax Cuts ($) 450 450 450 450 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,000 800 600 600 600 600 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600 2,600 2,600 2,600
Income Tax Cuts ($) 150 150 150 150 300 300 300 300 300 300 150 150 150 150 250 350 450 550 750 950 1,150 1,350 1,550 1,750 1,950 2,150 2,150 2,150 2,150
Income Tax Cuts ($) 0 150 150 150 150 450 450 450 450 450 400 300 300 300 350 400 450 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300
Income Tax Cuts ($) 0 600 503 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 253 128 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
compared to 2007-08 ($) 600 1,350 1,253 1,053 1,803 2,103 2,103 2,053 1,853 1,653 1,453 1,303 1,178 1,553 1,703 1,853 2,003 2,153 2,453 2,753 3,053 3,353 3,653 4,453 5,253 6,053 6,053 6,053 6,053
OVERVIEW
39
APPENDIX E
Spreading benefits of the boom and support for families Increasing the rate of Family Tax Benefit Part A New income support supplement Replacing the Education Tax Refund with a Schoolkids Bonus Helping the most vulnerable in society First stage of a National Disability Insurance Scheme Dental health - Alleviating pressure on public dental waiting lists Dental health - Increasing the capacity of the dental workforce Building an aged care system for the future Addressing workforce pressures Residential care Staying at home Tackling dementia Older Australians with diverse backgrounds Helping businesses to invest Introduction of loss carry-back for businesses Nation building infrastruture Additional funding for Pacific Highway(a) Roads to Recovery program - continuation(a) Intermodal Terminal at Moorebank in Western Sydney Torrens and Goodwood Junctions rail project Black Spots program - continuation(a) Building opportunities for a more productive workforce Reform of Jobs, Education and Training Child Care Fee Assistance Program - introduction of a package of reforms Remote Jobs and Communities program - establishment of the Community Development Program Measures to improve the quality of skills Measures to encourage participation of older Australians in the workforce and the community Other priorities National eHealth program - continuation Reforming Australia's Biosecurity system - new Post-Entry Quarantine facility Defence operations
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 $m $m $m $m $m 0.0 0.0 -516.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -152.7 -426.2 -83.9 -70.0 -14.4 -1.8 -22.6 -2.9 -15.5 -6.0 -6.7 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -39.5 0.0 -20.8 -10.2 -602.9 -298.9 -370.9 -234.3 -155.8 -51.0 -110.5 -27.0 -26.5 -30.7 -27.4 -155.3 -615.4 -305.7 -375.3 -345.4 -120.0 -47.3 -232.0 -142.0 -98.6 -28.6 -30.4 -251.2
Total $m
-625.8 -1,844.4 -313.0 -1,070.3 -393.5 -2,082.2 -363.0 -1,026.5 0.0 -345.9 -45.9 -158.6 -372.8 -205.2 -104.7 -29.3 -33.1 -300.7 -717.1 -396.9 -232.7 -104.2 -96.9 -713.9
-231.0 -1,025.0 -1,400.0 -2,656.0 0.0 -350.0 -350.0 -700.0 0.1 -342.9 -15.0 -357.9 0.0 0.0 -232.1 -232.1 0.0 -60.0 -60.0 -120.0 -37.7 -38.7 -31.7 -14.9 -62.2 -48.8 -25.3 -19.8 -85.8 -50.0 -23.4 -22.1 -225.6 -137.5 -101.1 -67.0
-33.4 0.0
-79.2 -27.7
0.0 -22.3
-233.7 -220.5
0.0 -1,087.1
-50.0 -1,485.6
(a) These programs will be funded out of the Nation Building Program 2 provision in the contingency reserve and so have no net budget impact.
40
OVERVIEW
APPENDIX F
2 0 11- 12 $m
2 0 12 - 13 $m
2 0 13 - 14 $m
2 0 14 - 15 $m
2 0 15 - 16 $m
Tota l $m
Spreading the benefits of the boom Do not proceed with the company tax cut Reprioritising the tax reform agenda Do not proceed with standard deduction Superannuation - Deferral of higher concessional contributions cap Do not proceed with 50 per cent discount on interest Tax Breaks for Green Buildings - closure Improving fairness in the tax system Further reform of living-away-from-home allowances and benefits Superannuation - Reduction of higher tax concession for contributions of very high income earners Changes to the Net Medical Expenses Tax Offset Better targeting of the employment termination payment tax offset Duty free allowances - cigarettes and tobacco Compliance measures GST - compliance program - two year extension Defence Defence - Efficiencies and reprogramming Official development assistance Official development assistance - deferring Australia's growth target Better targeting spending Parenting Payment - changed eligibility for 1 July 2006 grandfathered recipients Family Tax Benefit Part A - change to age of eligibility Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme - price changes Extended Medicare Safety Net - capping benefits including for items with excessive fees Australian Apprenticeships Incentives Program - better targeting Portability of Australian Government Payments Practice Incentives Program (PIP) more effective targeting Other revenue Heavy Vehicle Road User Charging Passenger Movement Charge - increase Dividend payments from Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation Australian Federal Police - Partial Cost Recovery of Airport Policing Other Total saves (a)
50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
316.6 2.5 602.7 7.3 4.2 47.1 -15.6 0.0 14.7 115.0 0.0 965.7 447.2
1,232.2 91.9 745.0 37.2 14.2 212.2 174.3 115.0 49.7 150.0 0.0 1,625.9 782.6
1,596.0 600.0 129.5 323.2 104.0 347.6 332.0 125.0 54.9 160.0 228.6 1,137.5 823.4
1,561.0 1,400.0 -17.7 555.8 282.0 394.4 455.9 130.0 60.0 175.0 203.5 1,703.5 866.7
4,755.8 2,094.4 1,459.5 923.5 405.2 1,001.3 946.5 370.0 196.4 600.0 432.1 5,432.5 2,920.0
0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 143.1 214.4
96.9 46.4 25.9 8.7 59.5 13.2 1.1 166.0 85.0 175.0 0.0 1,231.1 4,416.1
204.7 103.5 24.4 24.9 99.8 36.0 30.9 172.0 140.0 75.0 38.2 1,717.5 7,897.1
159.3 104.6 25.0 29.1 97.8 38.1 26.5 177.0 175.0 75.0 39.3 2,073.8 8,982.1
224.9 106.4 25.7 33.8 96.6 39.9 24.9 183.0 210.0 75.0 40.5 2,263.9 11,094.9
685.8 360.9 104.6 96.5 353.6 127.2 83.5 698.0 610.0 400.0 118.1 7,429.4 32,604.7
(a) In underlying cash terms, the Budget delivers savings of $33.6 billion over five years.
OVERVIEW
41
APPENDIX G
Petroleum excise $16,980 million Other excise Other taxation Customs duty $3,323 million $7,370 million $9,095 million
42
OVERVIEW
APPENDIX H
Outcomes(b) 2010-11 Panel A - Demand and output(c) Household consumption Private investment Dwellings Total business investment(d) Non-dwelling construction(d) Machinery and equipment(d) Private final demand(d) Public final demand(d) Total final demand Change in inventories(e) Gross national expenditure Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Net exports(e) Real gross domestic product Non-farm product Farm product Nominal gross domestic product Panel B - Other selected economic measures External accounts Terms of trade Current account balance (per cent of GDP) Labour market Employment (labour force survey basis)(f) Unemployment rate (per cent)(g) Participation rate (per cent)(g) Prices and wages Consumer price index(h) Gross non-farm product deflator Wage price index(f) 3.1 3.0 5.6 8.8 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.3 0.5 3.8 0.2 10.4 -2.0 2.0 1.9 7.1 8.3 2011-12 3 1/4 -1 18 25 16 1/2 6 1 1/2 5 0 5 4 12 1/2 -2 3 3 1/4 -6 5 1/2
Forecasts 2012-13 3 0 12 1/2 14 12 1/2 5 - 1/2 3 3/4 0 4 4 1/2 7 1/2 - 3/4 3 1/4 3 1/4 2 5 2013-14 3 2 1/2 8 7 1/2 8 1/2 4 1/4 0 3 1/4 0 3 1/2 4 1/2 5 1/2 - 1/2 3 3 1 5 1/4
(a) Percentage change on preceding year unless otherwise indicated. (b) Calculated using original data unless otherwise indicated. (c) Chain volume measures except for nominal gross domestic product which is in current prices. (d) Excluding second-hand asset sales from the public sector to the private sector. (e) Percentage point contribution to growth in GDP. (f) Seasonally adjusted, through-the-year growth rate to the June quarter. (g) Seasonally adjusted rate for the June quarter. (h) Through-the-year growth rate to the June quarter. Note: The forecasts for the domestic economy are based on several technical assumptions. The exchange rate is assumed to remain around its recent average level a trade-weighted index of around 77 and a US$ exchange rate of around 103 US cents. Interest rates are assumed to move broadly in line with market expectations. World oil prices (Malaysian Tapis) are assumed to remain around US$126 per barrel. The farm sector forecasts are based on average seasonal conditions in 2012-13 and 2013-14. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) cat. no. 5206.0, 5302.0, 6202.0, 6345.0, 6401.0, unpublished ABS data and Treasury.
OVERVIEW
43
APPENDIX I
Receipts
Payments
1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12(e) 2012-13(e) 2013-14(e) 2014-15(p) 2015-16(p)
$m 26,129 30,321 35,993 41,499 45,463 49,981 58,817 66,206 74,724 83,491 90,748 98,625 100,227 95,840 97,633 103,824 113,458 124,429 133,592 140,736 152,063 166,199 182,996 187,588 204,613 217,775 235,984 255,943 272,637 294,917 292,600 284,662 302,024 329,976 368,774 392,544 413,618 438,373
Per cent of GDP 22.0 22.5 23.6 23.6 24.0 23.4 25.0 25.4 26.2 25.7 24.7 24.4 24.1 22.6 22.0 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.0 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.9 24.8 25.5 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.2 25.1 23.4 22.0 21.6 22.3 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.2
$m 28,272 31,642 36,176 41,151 48,810 56,990 64,853 71,328 77,158 82,039 85,326 92,684 100,665 108,472 115,751 122,009 127,619 135,538 139,689 140,587 148,175 153,192 177,123 188,655 197,243 209,785 222,407 240,136 253,321 271,843 316,046 336,900 346,102 371,337 364,209 387,299 404,892 427,251
Per cent of GDP 23.8 23.5 23.7 23.4 25.8 26.7 27.5 27.4 27.0 25.3 23.2 22.9 24.2 25.6 26.0 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.1 23.9 23.8 23.1 25.1 25.0 24.6 24.4 24.2 24.1 23.4 23.1 25.2 26.0 24.7 25.1 23.5 23.7 23.5 23.6
$m -2,142 -1,322 -184 348 -3,348 -7,008 -6,037 -5,122 -2,434 1,452 5,421 5,942 -438 -12,631 -18,118 -18,185 -14,160 -11,109 -6,099 149 3,889 13,007 5,872 -1,067 7,370 7,990 13,577 15,756 17,182 19,704 -27,079 -54,750 -47,746 -44,402 1,536 2,044 5,318 7,469
Per cent of GDP -1.8 -1.0 -0.1 0.2 -1.8 -3.3 -2.6 -2.0 -0.9 0.4 1.5 1.5 -0.1 -3.0 -4.1 -3.9 -2.9 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 0.6 2.0 0.8 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 -2.2 -4.2 -3.4 -3.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
$m na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na -68,178 -73,097 -79,012 -84,645 -74,159 -60,257 -63,440 -39,976 -18,070 -74,094 -147,168 -200,810 -251,297 -248,642 -244,263 -235,855 -225,781
Per cent of GDP na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na na -10.3 -10.3 -10.5 -10.6 -8.6 -6.5 -6.4 -3.7 -1.5 -5.9 -11.4 -14.3 -17.0 -16.0 -15.0 -13.7 -12.4
(a) Excludes Future Fund earnings from 2005-06 onwards. (e) Estimates. (p) Projections. na Data not available.
44
OVERVIEW