Mitigation Potential and Costs Land-Use Options

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Mitigation Potential and Costs

Land-Use Options

Daniel Martino
(Carbosur, Uruguay)
CLA, Chapter 8 (Agriculture), WGIII
Bonn, 12 May 2007

IPCC
Baseline emissions
9

8
1990-2005
Developed countries, EIT: -12% Agriculture Emissions 2005
7
Developing countries: +32%
GHG Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr)

7%
6
11%
5
38% N2O soils
4
CH4 enteric
12%
3 Biomass burning
Rice mgmt.
2 other

0 32%
1990 2005 2030

Agriculture Forests

Forest and agriculture sinks not included in


graph Main drivers
• Increase in GHGs: population pressure, income increse, diet changes, technological
changes
• Decrease in GHGs: increased land productivity, conservation tillage, non-climate
policies (AI), forest sinks (temperate/boreal)
IPCC
Baseline emissions: Forests

IPCC
Economic Mitigation Potential

Mitigation practices in Agriculture


Cropland management; Restoration of organic soils; Rice management;
Grazing land management – 90% of potential is carbon sequestration
Mitigation practices in Forests
Reduced emissions from deforestation; afforestation; forest management

IPCC
Agriculture: Regional Distribution of
Economic Potential (US$ 100/tCO2-eq)

70% of potential is in developing regions

IPCC
Forests: Regional Distribution of
Economic Potential (US$ 100/tCO2-eq)

65% of potential is in developing regions


Developing countries: reduced deforestation 40% of potential
Developed countries, EIT: forest management 63-72% of potential
IPCC
Biomass as Feedstock for Energy
• Agriculture:
– Biomass for energy produced in agricultural land may cause
indirect emissions reductions of 70-1,260 Mt CO2-eq./yr (at
US$ 20/tCO2) by 2030.
– In addition, emissions reductions of 770 Mt CO2-eq./yr can
be achieved through energy efficiency
– Forests:
– Indirect emissions reductions of 40-4,000 Mt CO2-eq./yr (at
US$ 20/tCO2) can be achieved by 2030.
– Increasing stocks of harvested wood products can also
contribute (not estimated in the report).

IPCC
Final Remarks (1)
• Developing regions:
– where most emissions occur (both in agriculture and forests)
– where emissions tend to increase (agriculture)
– where ca. 2/3 of economic mitigation potential can be
achieved.
• Developed regions, EIT:
– agriculture emissions tend to decrease
– forest sector is a net sink
– large potential for carbon sequestration through forest
management and carbon sequestration in soils in some areas

IPCC
Final Remarks (2)
• C sequestration represents 90% of potential in agriculture, and
60% in forests
– high uncertainty of estimates (baseline and potentials)
– uncertainty on long-term effects (about sink enhancement or reversal due
to climate change)
• Agriculture and forests may also contribute to mitigation in
energy sector through production of biomass feedstocks and
energy efficiency measures
– Competition with other land uses, positive or negative
environmental impacts, implications for food security
• Most mitigation practices in agriculture and forests
have synergies with sustainable development and
interactions with adaptation.

IPCC

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