Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 131 views

    Chapter Report Simulation Quanti

    Uploaded by

    Rej Francisco
    1. Simulation modeling involves constructing a mathematical model of a real-world system and conducting experiments on the model to understand the behavior of the system and evaluate strategies. It allows experimenting with a model to see the effects of changes without interfering with the actual system. 2. The key steps in simulation modeling are defining the problem, constructing a simulation model, specifying variable values to test, conducting simulation runs, and examining the results. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to simulate probabilistic systems by generating random values for variables. 3. Simulation has many applications including modeling computer systems, manufacturing systems, business processes, and government systems. It allows studying complex systems that cannot be analyzed through other quantitative methods.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Chapter Report Simulation Quanti

    Uploaded by

    Rej Francisco
    131 views28 pages
    1. Simulation modeling involves constructing a mathematical model of a real-world system and conducting experiments on the model to understand the behavior of the system and evaluate strategies. It allows experimenting with a model to see the effects of changes without interfering with the actual system. 2. The key steps in simulation modeling are defining the problem, constructing a simulation model, specifying variable values to test, conducting simulation runs, and examining the results. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to simulate probabilistic systems by generating random values for variables. 3. Simulation has many applications including modeling computer systems, manufacturing systems, business processes, and government systems. It allows studying complex systems that cannot be analyzed through other quantitative methods.

    Original Description:

    Simulation Method for Quanti

    Copyright

    © Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

    Available Formats

    PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    1. Simulation modeling involves constructing a mathematical model of a real-world system and conducting experiments on the model to understand the behavior of the system and evaluate strategies. It allows experimenting with a model to see the effects of changes without interfering with the actual system. 2. The key steps in simulation modeling are defining the problem, constructing a simulation model, specifying variable values to test, conducting simulation runs, and examining the results. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to simulate probabilistic systems by generating random values for variables. 3. Simulation has many applications including modeling computer systems, manufacturing systems, business processes, and government systems. It allows studying complex systems that cannot be analyzed through other quantitative methods.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    131 views28 pages

    Chapter Report Simulation Quanti

    Uploaded by

    Rej Francisco
    1. Simulation modeling involves constructing a mathematical model of a real-world system and conducting experiments on the model to understand the behavior of the system and evaluate strategies. It allows experimenting with a model to see the effects of changes without interfering with the actual system. 2. The key steps in simulation modeling are defining the problem, constructing a simulation model, specifying variable values to test, conducting simulation runs, and examining the results. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to simulate probabilistic systems by generating random values for variables. 3. Simulation has many applications including modeling computer systems, manufacturing systems, business processes, and government systems. It allows studying complex systems that cannot be analyzed through other quantitative methods.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 28

    CHAPTER 14

    SIMULATION MODELING
    Reported by: muriel jane monforte

    DEFINITION
    To

    SIMULATE is to try to duplicate the features, appearance, and characteristics of a real system. The idea behind simulation is to:
    -imitate a real-world situation mathematically -study its properties and operating characteristics

    -to draw conclusions and make action decisions based on the results of simulation

    Define problem

    The Process of Simulation

    Introduce important variables Construct Simulation model


    Specify values of variables to be tested

    Conduct simulation

    Examine results Select best course of action

    Advantages and disadvantages:


    Advantages:
    1. 2.

    It is relatively straightforward and flexible. Recent advances in software make some simulation models very easy to develop. It can be used to analyze large and complex real-world situations that cannot be solved by conventional quantitative analysis models. Simulation allows what-if types of questions. Simulations do not interfere with the real-world system. Simulation allows us to study the interactive effect of individual components of variables to determine which ones are important. Time compression is possible with simulation. Simulation allows for the inclusion of real-world complications that most quantitative analysis models cannot permit.

    3.

    4. 5. 6.

    7. 8.

    Disadvantages
    1.

    Good simulation models for complex situations can be very expensive. Simulation does not generate optimal solutions to problems as do other quantitative analysis techniques such as EOQ, LP , or PERT. Managers must generate all of the conditions and constraints for solutions that they want to examine. Each simulation model is unique.

    2.

    3.

    4.

    Brief History

    World War II

    Monte Carlo simulation: originated with the work on the atomic bomb. Used to simulate bombing raids. Given the security code name Monte-Carlo. Still widely used today for certain problems which are not analytically solvable (for example: complex multiple integrals)

    What can be simulated?

    Almost anything can and almost everything has...

    Applications:

    COMPUTER SYSTEMS: hardware components, software systems, networks, data base management, information processing, etc..

    MANUFACTURING: material handling systems, assembly lines, automated production facilities, inventory control systems, plant layout, etc..

    BUSINESS: stock and commodity analysis, pricing policies, marketing strategies, cash flow analysis, forecasting, etc.. GOVERNMENT: military weapons and their use, military tactics, population forecasting, land use, health care delivery, fire protection, criminal justice, traffic control, etc..

    Monte Carlo simulation


    The

    basic idea in Monte Carlo Simulation is to generate values for the variables making up the model being studied. There are a lot of variables in real world systems that are probabilistic in nature that we want to simulate.

    Examples of variables:
    1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

    Inventory demand on a daily or weekly basis Lead time for inventory orders to arrive Times between machine breakdowns Times between arrivals at a service facility Service times Times to complete project activities Number of employees absent from work each day

    Five steps of monte carlo simulation


    1.

    Establishing probability distributions for important input variables Building a cumulative probability distribution for each variable in step 1 Establishing an interval of random numbers for each variable Generating random numbers Simulating a series of trials

    2.

    3.

    4. 5.

    Harrys auto tire example


    Harrys Auto Tire sells all types of tires, but a popular radial tire accounts for a large portion of Harrys overall sales. Recognizing that inventory costs can be quite significant with this product, Harry wishes to determine a policy for managing this inventory. To see what the demand would look like over a period of time, he wishes to simulate the daily demand for a number of days.

    Step 1:establishing probability distributions


    Demand for Tires 0 1 2 3 4 5 Frequency (days) 10 20 40 60 40 30 200 Probability of Occurence 10/200= 0.05 20/200= 0.10 40/200= 0.20 60/200= 0.30 40/200= 0.20 30/200= 0.15 200/200=1.00

    Step 2: building a cumulative probability distribution for each variable

    DAILY DEMAND 0 1 2 3 4 5

    PROBABILITY 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15

    CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.65 0.85 1.00

    STEP 3: setting random number intervals


    DAILY DEMAND 0 1 2 3 4 5 PROBABILITY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY 0.05 0.15 0.35 0.65 0.85 1.00 INTERVAL OF RANDOM NUMBERS 01 to 05 06 to 15 16 to 35 36 to 65 66 to 85 86 to 00

    0.05 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.20 0.15

    Step 4: generating random numbers

    SIMKIN HARDWARE STORE

    Mark Simkin, owner and general manager of Simkin Hardware, wants to find a good, low cost inventory policy for one particular product: the Ace model electric drill. Due to complexity of this situation, he has decided to use simulation to help with this.

    Other simulation issues


    Two 1.

    other types of Simulation Models

    Operational Gaming- refers to simulation involving two or more competing players. Ex.: military games, business games Systems Simulation- similar to business gaming, allows users to test various managerial policies and decisions to evaluate their effect on the operating environment. Large system dynamics. Ex.:corporate operations, national economy, hospital or city govt. system

    2. 3.

    4.

    Verification and validation

    - End And now Any questions???

    thanks

    You might also like