The Normal Distribution and Other Continuous Distribution: Dr. K. M. Salah Uddin

The Normal Distribution and
Other Continuous Distribution

Dr. K. M. Salah Uddin
Associate Professor, Department of
Management Information Systems
Contents
To compute probabilities from the normal distribution
To compute probabilities from the uniform distribution
To compute probabilities from the exponential
distribution
To compute probabilities from the normal distribution to
approximate probabilities from the binomial distribution
Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions
Discrete
Probability
Distributions
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Binomial
Normal
Poisson
Uniform
Exponential
Continuous Probability Distributions

A continuous random variable is a variable that
can assume any value on a continuum (can
assume an uncountable number of values)
thickness of an item
time required to complete a task
temperature of a solution
height, in inches
These can potentially take on any value,

depending only on the ability to measure
accurately.
The Normal Distribution

Probability
Distributions
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Normal
Uniform
Exponential

Bell Shaped
Symmetrical
Mean, Median and Mode
are Equal
Location is determined by the
mean,
Spread is determined by the
standard deviation,
The random variable has an

infinite theoretical range:
+ to
f(X)
Mean
= Median
= Mode
Many Normal Distributions
By varying the parameters and , we obtain

different normal distributions

Shape
f(X)
Changing shifts the

distribution left or right.
Changing increases
or decreases the
spread.
X
The Normal Probability

Density Function
The formula for the normal probability density
function is
1
(1/2)[(X )/] 2
f(X)
e
2
Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
= the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
= the population mean
= the population standard deviation
X = any value of the continuous variable
The Standardized Normal
Any normal distribution (with any mean and

standard deviation combination) can be
transformed into the standardized normal
distribution (Z)
Need to transform X units into Z units
Translation to the Standardized

Normal Distribution
Translate from X to the standardized normal

(the Z distribution) by subtracting the mean
of X and dividing by its standard deviation:
X
Z
The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and

standard deviation = 1
The Standardized Normal

Probability Density Function
The formula for the standardized normal
probability density function is
f(Z)
1
(1/2)Z 2
e
2
Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

= the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
Z = any value of the standardized normal distribution
The Standardized
Normal Distribution
Also known as the Z distribution

Mean is 0
Standard Deviation is 1
f(Z)
1
0
Values above the mean have positive Z-values,

values below the mean have negative Z-values
Example
If X is distributed normally with mean of 100

and standard deviation of 50, the Z value for
X = 200 is
X 200 100
Z
2.0
50
This says that X = 200 is two standard

deviations (2 increments of 50 units) above
the mean of 100.
Comparing X and Z units
100
0
200
2.0
X
Z
( = 100, = 50)
( = 0, = 1)
Note that the distribution is the same, only the

scale has changed. We can express the problem in
original units (X) or in standardized units (Z)
Finding Normal Probabilities

Probability is the
Probability is measured
area under the
curve! under the curve
f(X)
by the area
P (a X b)
= P (a < X < b)
(Note that the probability
of any individual value is
zero)
Probability as
Area Under the Curve
The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve is
symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is below
f(X) P( X ) 0.5
0.5
P( X ) 0.5
0.5
P( X ) 1.0
Empirical Rules
What can we say about the distribution of values
around the mean? There are some general rules:
f(X)
-1
1 encloses about
68% of Xs
+1
68.26%
The Empirical Rule

(continued)
2 covers about 95% of Xs
3 covers about 99.7% of Xs
95.44%
99.73%
The Standardized Normal Table

The Cumulative Standardized Normal table
in the textbook gives the probability less than
a desired value for Z (i.e., from negative
infinity to Z)
0.9772
Example:
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772
0
2.00
The Standardized Normal Table

(continued)
The column gives the value of

Z to the second decimal point
Z
The row shows

the value of Z
to the first
decimal point
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.0
0.1
.
.
.
2.0
2.0
P(Z < 2.00) = 0.9772
.9772
The value within the

table gives the
probability from Z =
up to the desired Z
value
General Procedure for

Finding Probabilities
To find P(a < X < b) when X is
distributed normally:
Draw the normal curve for the problem in

terms of X
Translate X-values to Z-values

Use the Standardized Normal Table

Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0
Find P(X < 8.6)
8.0
8.6

(continued)

standard deviation 5.0. Find P(X < 8.6)
Z
X 8.6 8.0
0.12
5.0
=8
=5
8 8.6
P(X < 8.6)
=0
=1
0 0.12
P(Z < 0.12)
Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability
Table (Portion)
.00
.01
P(X < 8.6)

= P(Z < 0.12)
.02
.5478
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478

0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255
0.00
0.12
Upper Tail Probabilities

standard deviation 5.0.
Now Find P(X > 8.6)
8.0
8.6
Upper Tail Probabilities

(continued)
Now Find P(X > 8.6)

P(X > 8.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z 0.12)
= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522
0.5478
1.000
0
0.12
1.0 - 0.5478
= 0.4522
0
0.12
Probability Between
Two Values

standard deviation 5.0. Find P(8 < X < 8.6)
Calculate Z-values:
X 8 8
Z
5
X 8.6 8
Z
0.12
8 8.6
0 0.12
P(8 < X < 8.6)

= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
Solution: Finding P(0 < Z < 0.12)

Standardized Normal Probability
Table (Portion)
.00
.01
.02
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478
P(8 < X < 8.6)

= P(0 < Z < 0.12)
= P(Z < 0.12) P(Z 0)
= 0.5478 - .5000 = 0.0478
0.0478
0.5000
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871

0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255
0.00
0.12
Probabilities in the Lower Tail

Now Find P(7.4 < X < 8)
7.4
8.0
Probabilities in the Lower Tail

(continued)
Now Find P(7.4 < X < 8)

P(7.4 < X < 8)
= P(-0.12 < Z < 0)
0.0478
= P(Z < 0) P(Z -0.12)

= 0.5000 - 0.4522 = 0.0478
The Normal distribution is
symmetric, so this probability
is the same as P(0 < Z < 0.12)
0.4522
7.4 8.0
-0.12 0
X
Z
Finding the X value for a

Known Probability
Steps to find the X value for a known
probability:
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
2. Convert to X units using the formula:
X Z
Finding the X value for a

Known Probability
(continued)
Example:
Now find the X value so that only 20% of all
values are below this X
0.2000
?
?
8.0
0
X
Z
Find the Z value for

20% in the Lower Tail
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
Standardized Normal Probability 20% area in the lower
Table (Portion)
tail is consistent with a
Z
-0.9
.03
.04
.05
.1762 .1736 .1711
-0.8 .2033 .2005 .1977

-0.7
Z value of -0.84
0.2000
.2327 .2296 .2266

?
8.0
-0.84 0
X
Z
Finding the X value

2. Convert to X units using the formula:
X Z
8.0 ( 0.84)5.0
3.80
So 20% of the values from a distribution
with mean 8.0 and standard deviation
5.0 are less than 3.80
The Uniform Distribution

Probability
Distributions
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Normal
Uniform
Exponential

The uniform distribution is a
probability distribution that has equal
probabilities for all possible
outcomes of the random variable
Also called a rectangular distribution

(continued)
The Continuous Uniform Distribution:
f(X) =
1
ba
if a X b
otherwise
where
f(X) = value of the density function at any X value
a = minimum value of X
b = maximum value of X
Properties of the
Uniform Distribution
The mean of a uniform distribution is
ab
The standard deviation is
(b - a)2
12
Uniform Distribution Example

Example: Uniform probability distribution
over the range 2 X 6:
1
f(X) = 6 - 2 = 0.25 for 2 X 6
f(X)
0.25
2
ab 26
4
2
2
(b - a)2
12
(6 - 2)2
1.1547
12
Uniform Distribution Example

(continued)
Example: Using the uniform probability

distribution to find P(3 X 5):
P(3 X 5) = (Base)(Height) = (2)(0.25) = 0.5
f(X)
0.25
2
The Exponential Distribution

Probability
Distributions
Continuous
Probability
Distributions
Normal
Uniform
Exponential

Often used to model the length of time
between two occurrences of an event (the
time between arrivals)
Examples:
Time between trucks arriving at an unloading dock
Time between transactions at an ATM Machine
Time between phone calls to the main operator

Defined by a single parameter, its mean
(lambda)
The probability that an arrival time is less than
some specified time X is
P(arrival time X) 1 e
where e = mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

= the population mean number of arrivals per unit
X = any value of the continuous variable where 0 < X <
Exponential Distribution
Example
Example: Customers arrive at the service counter at
the rate of 15 per hour. What is the probability that the
arrival time between consecutive customers is less
than three minutes?
The mean number of arrivals per hour is 15, so = 15
Three minutes is 0.05 hours
P(arrival time < .05) = 1 e-X = 1 e-(15)(0.05) = 0.5276
So there is a 52.76% probability that the arrival time

between successive customers is less than three
minutes
Normal Approximation to the

Binomial Distribution
The binomial distribution is a discrete
distribution, but the normal is continuous
To use the normal to approximate the binomial,
accuracy is improved if you use a correction for
continuity adjustment
Example:
X is discrete in a binomial distribution, so P(X = 4)
can be approximated with a continuous normal
distribution by finding
P(3.5 < X < 4.5)

(continued)
The closer p is to 0.5, the better the normal

approximation to the binomial
The larger the sample size n, the better the
normal approximation to the binomial
General rule:
The normal distribution can be used to approximate
the binomial distribution if
np 5
and
n(1 p) 5

(continued)
The mean and standard deviation of the

binomial distribution are
= np
np(1 p)
Transform binomial to normal using the formula:

X
X np
Z
np(1 p)
Using the Normal Approximation

to the Binomial Distribution
If n = 1000 and p = 0.2, what is P(X 180)?
Approximate P(X 180) using a continuity correction
adjustment:
P(X 180.5)
Transform to standardized normal:
Z
X np
180.5 (1000)(0.2)
1.54
np(1 p)
(1000)(0.2)(1 0.2)
So P(Z -1.54) = 0.0618

180.5
-1.54
200
0
X
Z
Chapter Summary
Presented key continuous distributions
normal, uniform, exponential
Found probabilities using formulas and tables

Recognized when to apply different distributions
Applied distributions to decision problems

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The Normal Distribution and

Other Continuous Distribution

Continuous Probability Distributions

These can potentially take on any value,

The Normal Distribution

The Normal Distribution

The random variable has an

Many Normal Distributions

By varying the parameters and , we obtain

The Normal Distribution

Changing shifts the

The Normal Probability

The Standardized Normal

Any normal distribution (with any mean and

Need to transform X units into Z units

Translation to the Standardized

Translate from X to the standardized normal

The Z distribution always has mean = 0 and

The Standardized Normal

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

Also known as the Z distribution

Values above the mean have positive Z-values,

If X is distributed normally with mean of 100

This says that X = 200 is two standard

Comparing X and Z units

Note that the distribution is the same, only the

Finding Normal Probabilities

The Empirical Rule

2 covers about 95% of Xs

3 covers about 99.7% of Xs

The Standardized Normal Table

The Standardized Normal Table

The column gives the value of

The row shows

The value within the

General Procedure for

Draw the normal curve for the problem in

Translate X-values to Z-values

Finding Normal Probabilities

Finding Normal Probabilities

Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and

P(X < 8.6)

P(Z < 0.12)

Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)

P(X < 8.6)

0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080

0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478

Upper Tail Probabilities

Upper Tail Probabilities

Now Find P(X > 8.6)

Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and

P(8 < X < 8.6)

Solution: Finding P(0 < Z < 0.12)

0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080

0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478

P(8 < X < 8.6)

0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871

Probabilities in the Lower Tail