ENSO: Recent Evolution,

Current Status and Predictions

Update prepared by:

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP
15 October 2018
Outline
Summary
Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
Pacific SST Outlook
U.S. Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
Summary
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of
the Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through
the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance).*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Recent Evolution of
Equatorial Pacific SST
Departures (oC)

From September 2017 to late March

2018, below-average SSTs persisted
across the central and eastern Pacific
Ocean.
Since early June, near-to-above
average SSTs have been present across
most of the Pacific Ocean.
Recently, positive SST anomalies
strengthened across the central and
eastern equatorial Pacific.
Niño Region SST
Departures (oC) Recent
Evolution

The latest weekly SST

departures are:
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 0.4ºC
SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last
Four Weeks
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average over most of the
Pacific Ocean. Above-average SSTs were also observed north of the equator in the
eastern Pacific, while below-average SSTs were present south of the equator.

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26
Global SST Departures (oC) During the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across most of the
Pacific Ocean and the central Atlantic Ocean. SSTs were below average near Indonesia
and the eastern Indian Ocean.

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26
Weekly SST Departures
during the Last Four
Weeks

During the last four weeks, above-average

SSTs have persisted near the Date Line and
expanded into the eastern Pacific.
Change in Weekly SST Departures over the Last Four
Weeks
During the last four weeks, positive changes were observed over most of the central to
eastern equatorial Pacific.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in
the Equatorial Pacific

The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m)

heat content is greatest prior to and during the
early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode
(compare top 2 panels), and least prior to and
during the early stages of a cold (La Niña)
episode.

The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least

(greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.

Recent values of the upper-ocean heat

anomalies (above average) and thermocline
slope index (near average) reflect ENSO-neutral
conditions.

The monthly thermocline slope index represents the

difference in anomalous depth of the 20ºC isotherm
between the western Pacific (160ºE-150ºW) and the
eastern Pacific (90º-140ºW).
 Central and Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m)
Weekly Average Temperature Anomalies

Negative subsurface temperature anomalies lasted from August 2017 to February 2018.
Since the end of February, temperature anomalies have increased and remained positive.
During September and October, positive anomalies increased again.
 Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial
Pacific
In the last two months, positive subsurface
temperature anomalies have strengthened and
expanded into the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Most recent pentad analysis

The recent evolution is associated with a

downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave, and
with a continued evolution toward El Niño.
 Tropical OLR and Wind
Anomalies During the Last
30 Days
Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection
and precipitation) were evident over Indonesia
and near the Date Line.

Anomalous low-level (850-hPa) cross-equatorial

winds were evident over the eastern Pacific
Ocean, while westerly anomalies were
apparent over the far western Pacific and in
the east-central Pacific.

Anomalous upper-level (200-hPa) easterly

winds were observed over the east-central
Pacific.
Intraseasonal Variability

Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related
to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface
conditions across the Pacific Ocean.

Related to this activity:

Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-
propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
 Weekly Heat Content
Evolution in the Equatorial
Pacific
From December 2017- May 2018, successive
Kelvin waves contributed to the eastward shift of
positive and negative subsurface temperature
anomalies.
From early April 2018 to early July, positive
subsurface temperature anomalies persisted
across most of the equatorial Pacific.
During July-August 2018, positive subsurface
temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern
Pacific.
Since early August 2018, positive subsurface
anomalies have increased, partly due to a
downwelling Kelvin wave.

Equatorial oceanic Kelvin waves have

alternating warm and cold phases. The warm
phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-
welling and warming occur in the leading
portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and
cooling occur in the trailing portion.
 Low-level (850-hPa)
Zonal (east-west) Wind
Anomalies (m s-1)
At times, the Madden Julian Oscillation
(MJO) contributed to the eastward
propagation of low-level wind anomalies.
Since mid-July, westerly wind anomalies
have become more prevalent over the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Since mid-September, strong westerly
wind anomalies have been present east
of the Date Line.

Westerly Wind Anomalies (orange/red shading)

Easterly Wind Anomalies (blue shading)
 Upper-level (200-hPa)
Velocity Potential
Anomalies
Through June 2018, anomalous upper-
level convergence (brown shading)
persisted over the central Pacific.

Since early July 2018, anomalous upper-

level convergence has mostly persisted
over the Indian Ocean, while anomalous
upper-level divergence (green shading)
has mostly persisted over the central and
east-central Pacific.

Recently, an eastward propagating

pattern of anomalous upper-level
convergence has moved over the central
Pacific.

Unfavorable for precipitation (brown shading)

Favorable for precipitation (green shading)

Note: Eastward propagation is not necessarily indicative of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
 Outgoing Longwave
Radiation (OLR) Anomalies

Through June 2018 and from mid-July to

mid-August, positive OLR anomalies
persisted over the central Pacific Ocean.
Recently, positive OLR anomalies have
persisted from Indonesia to the Date Line.

Drier-than-average Conditions (orange/red shading)

Wetter-than-average Conditions (blue shading)
Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a
principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.

Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region.
Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analyses
(Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5). The SST reconstruction methodology is
described in Huang et al., 2017, J. Climate, vol. 30, 8179-8205.)

It is one index that helps to place current events into a historical perspective
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.

La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.

By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,

these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping
3-month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
 ONI (ºC): Evolution
since 1950

The most recent ONI value

(July – September 2018) is
+0.1ºC.

El Niño
Neutral
La Niña
Historical El Niño and La Niña Episodes Based on the
ONI computed using ERSST.v5
Recent Pacific warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 ºC for the Oceanic
Nino Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region (5N-5S, 120-170W)].
For historical purposes, periods of below and above normal SSTs are colored in blue and red when the
threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and other indices can confirm whether
features consistent with a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon accompanied these periods. The complete
table going back to DJF 1950 can be found here.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
2006 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9

2007 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 -1.6

2008 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7

2009 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6

2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6

2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0

2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2

2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3

2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7

2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6

2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6

2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0

2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook
Updated: 11 October 2018

El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the
Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance).
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño
3.4 SST Model Outlook

The majority of models predict

El Niño to develop during
September-November 2018.

Figure provided by the International Research

Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society
(updated 19 September 2018).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast (PDF corrected)
Issued: 14 October 2018

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) favors El Niño forming soon and
continuing through Northern Hemisphere spring 2019.
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
Since late August 2018, anomalous ridging (and
above-average temperatures) were evident over
the eastern U.S., while anomalous troughing
(and below-average temperatures) were present
over the northwestern U.S.

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Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
Since late August 2018, anomalous ridging (and
above-average temperatures) were evident over
the eastern U.S., while anomalous troughing
(and below-average temperatures) were present
over the northwestern U.S.

2 of 3
Atmospheric anomalies over
the North Pacific and North
America During the Last 60
Days
Since late August 2018, anomalous ridging (and
above-average temperatures) were evident over
the eastern U.S., while anomalous troughing
(and below-average temperatures) were present
over the northwestern U.S.

3 of 3
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 30 Days

End Date: 13 October 2018

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

1 of 2
U.S. Temperature and Precipitation Departures During
the Last 90 Days

End Date: 13 October 2018

Percent of Average Precipitation Temperature Departures (degree C)

2 of 2
U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
October – December 2018

The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil moisture,
and, when appropriate, ENSO.

Precipitation Temperature
 Summary
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of
the Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through
the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance).*

* Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association
with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.