TRAFFIC

FORECASTIN
G
Angelica Ancheta
Jasten Rey Bunsocan
TRAFFIC FORECASTING
1. Introduction

• Traffic forecasting is the attempt of

estimating the number of vehicles or
people that will use a specific
transportation facility in the future.

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TRAFFIC FORECASTING

1. Introduction
• Traffic forecasting begins with the
collection of data on current traffic. This
traffic data is combined with other known
data, such as population, employment,
trip rates, travel costs, etc., to develop a
traffic demand model for the current
situation.

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THE
FOUR-STEP
FORECASTING
MODEL

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THE FOUR-STEP FORECASTING
MODEL

a. Trip generation and attraction

b. Trip distribution
c. Modal split
d. Traffic assignment

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THE FOUR-STEP FORECASTING MODEL
The use of these models follows a logical order as shown in figure 8.1.

Figure 8.1
The four-step forecasting process

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THE
ORIGIN-DESTINATION
TABLE
(OD MATRIX)

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THE ORIGIN-DESTINATION TABLE
(OD MATRIX)

Once the study is defined, it is

divided into a number of zones normally
defined by political or administrative
boundaries. These are called internal zones.

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 THE ORIGIN-DESTINATION TABLE
(OD MATRIX)

• The number of trips Oi, generated from zone i is also referred

to as trip generation.It is obtained by summing up all the
entries in a given row i.
• The number of trips Dj attracted to zone j is referred to as trip
attraction. It is obtained by summing up all the entries in a
given column j.
• Trip production is defined in terms of either Oi or Dj:

Sometimes the present trip production is estimated first before

the trip generation and trip attraction are analyzed.

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 THE ORIGIN-DESTINATION TABLE
(OD MATRIX)

• Trip production is estimated as

The independent variables inside the parenthesis must be

selected to satisfy the following requirements:
a. Predictability
Trips per day at cities in the world are fairly stable, which is about
2.5. Manila is about 2.3 trips per day while Davao City is about
2.4 trips per day.
b. Existence of significant difference between categories
A simple example of category is gender – male or female. Males
usually generate more trips per day. In Metro Manila, this is
about 2.6 for males compared with 2.0 females

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METHODS FOR
ESTIMATING
TRIP GENERATION
AND ATTRACTION

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METHODS FOR ESTIMATING TRIP GENERATION
AND ATTRACTION

A. Growth rate method

B. Category analysis
C. Regression model

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A. Growth Rate Method
The number of trips is assumed to be influenced
by several variables like population, car
ownership, or income.

If future values of these variables can be

estimated statistically, then the future number
of trips may be based on the growth rates of
these variables and may be estimated as
follows:

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B. Category Analysis

Let us say that the number of cars is

considered the main variable in determining
trip making in a certain area.

Based on the present number of households

and trip making activities, the future trips
can be estimated as follows:

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B. Category Analysis
Suppose the following table shows the current condition based on interviews:

From these data, the average trip generation rate per category can be estimated by dividing the number of trips by
the number of households in each category.

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B. Category Analysis

These trip generation rates are then applied to the forecasted number of households per category to obtain
the future trip generation.

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C. Regression Analysis
The different indices or dependent variables normally
considered that may have influence on trip making are shown in
table 8.1.

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C. Regression Analysis
In the Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study, the following trip generation and attraction
models are utilized:

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TRIP
DISTRIBUTION

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TRIP DISTRIBUTION

The objective of this model is to determine

from which zones these trip generations (Oi) are
generated and to which zones these trip
attarctions (Dj) are bound.

a. Present pattern method

b. Model method (Gravity Model)

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A. Present Pattern Method
Some of the methods under the first category are the following:

1. Uniform Factor Method

2. Average Factor Method

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B. Model Method (Gravity Method)
Distribution of trips are:
• Proportional to the number of trips produced and attracted by
each zone
• Inversely proportional to the separation between the origin
and destination zones

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Some of the merits cited for the gravity The demerits, however, are as follows:
models are as follows:

1. Trip resistance is considered 1. Index of resistance is arbitrary.

2. Structure of model is easy to
understand. 2. Trip distribution within zone is difficult to
treat.
3. Complete OD matrix is not
necessarily required. 3. Trip distribution for near zone pairs tends
to be larger than real values and vice versa.

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MODAL SPLIT
MODAL SPLIT
Modal split involves separating (splitting) the predicted trips from each origin
zone to each destination zone into distinct travel modes (e.g., walking, bicycle, driving,
train, bus).
Calculation of choice ration may be done using either binary or multiple choice.
Under the method of multiple choice, all possible modes are identified and the share of
each mode is calculated. The use of binary choice is relatively easy compared to multiple
choice.

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Figure 8.3 shows the sequence of modal choice following a binary tree procedure.

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MODAL SPLIT

Two types of modal split:

A. Generalized cost
B. Disaggregate choice model

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A. The Generalized Cost
The generalized cost attempts to put costing on
quantifiable and sometimes unquantifiable costs that may be
incurred during a trip using a specified mode.
Two cost items may be quantified easily: cost (in ordinary sense,
such as fare when taking public transport) and travel time. Level
of service may be included in the generalized cost but there is
difficulty in quantifying it.

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Considering several competing modes, the mode that will have the least generalized cost will be chosen.
Supposing that there are two modes, with corresponding generalized costs:

One disadvantage of the generalized cost method is the difficulty in determining the distribution of time
value. It is also difficult to treat more than two modes.
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DISAGGREGATE CHOICE MODEL

This method originated from microeconomics. It

assumes that a person will use a particular mode
with maximum utility for him/her.

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Example 2. A calibrated utility function for travel in a medium-sized city by car, bus, and light rail is
U = A -0.02X1 – 0.05X2
Where X1 is the cost of travel in pesos and X2 is the travel time (min). Calculate the modal split for the
given values:

If a parking fee of P30 per trip is imposed, what would be the split to the other two modes?

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The share of car is greatly reduced from 36 percent to 24 percent, an overall reduction of 33 percent. This results in car
users shifting to bus and rail, which now have an increased share of 32 percent and 44 percent, respectively
FACTORS THAT AFFECT MODAL SPLIT

1. Characteristics of the trip maker

2. Characteristics of the journey
3. Characteristics of the transport facility

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TRAFFIC
ASSIGNMENT
TRAFFIC/ROUTE ASSIGNMENT
• Given a road network, car drivers will normally use the route or
routes through which they will reach their destination in the
least time or distance.
• The same assumption is used to assign trips or vehicles in the
four-step model. The road network is usually drawn using nodes
and links as shown in figure 8.5. The zone centroids are
represented by nodes, and the roads connecting the zones are
presented by links.

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TRAFFIC/ROUTE ASSIGNMENT
Types of traffic assignment:

1. Shortest Path
2. Network Assignment

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A. The Shortest Path

A prerequisite to route assignment is the

determination of the shortest path from one node
of the network to another. Given a road network
with known characteristics such as distance or
travel time, the shortest path may be found using
Dijkstra’s algorithm.

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The procedure follows these basic steps:
a. First, label the staring node with a value equal to 0. This label is permanent as this will not be changed.
b. Consider each node adjacent to this node and give them temporary labels. (Only those without
permanent labels are considered.)
i. If a node is unlabelled, it is given a label equal to the weight of the link plus the value of the
previously labelled node.
ii. If a node is labelled, calculate the value of the label and, if this is less than the current value,
then exchange its value with the smaller one; otherwise, leave the label unchanged.
c. Choose the node with the smallest temporary label and make the label permanent.
d. Repeat steps b and c until the final node has been given a permanent label. The shortest path has a
length given by its permanent value.

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Example 8.3 Consider the road network shown in figure 8.6(A). The nodes are labelled a to k. The links have
values in travel time in minutes. Determine the shortest path (least travel time) from a to k using Dijsktra’s
algorithm.

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 Answer:
The shortest path from node a to k follows the route a-e-g-j-k with a total travel
time of 23 minutes.

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B. Network Assignment
Given choices or routes, it is but natural to assume that the trip
makers will consider the route that would require the least time
or least distance.

Based on this assumption, the methods used to assign the trips

within the road network are the following:

a. All-or-nothing assignment
b. Constant assignment ratio
c. Incremental assignment

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a. All-or-nothing assignment
Considering one OD pair, all trips are assigned to the shortest path
from point of origin to point of destination. After these trips are
loaded into the network, the level of service of the roads in the
network may change.

The basic steps in conducting an all-or-nothing assignment are as

follows:
a. Find the minimum path between zones a and k.
b. Assign all trips with the minimum path.
c. Repeat steps 1 and 2 for all OD pairs.

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b. Constant assignment ratio

In this method, it is assumed that the number of trips assigned to a

route is inversely proportional to the travel time or cost of that
route, i.e., more trips will be assigned to a route providing shorter
travel time or lesser cost.

The basic steps for the constant assignment ratio method are as
follows:
a. Find out several possible routes between zones a and k.
b. Calculate the level of service (time or cost) on each route.
c. Divide the distributed trip to each route inversely proportional to
LOS.

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c. Incremental assignment

This method considers the influence of previously assigned trips. It is

based on the Wardrop’s Principle, which states that out of several
routes available between zones i and j, the routes that are used have
equal level of service. The routes that are not used have lower LOS.
Consider the trips originating from one zone to be assigned.

The incremental assignment method takes the following steps:

a. Assign 1/n of the trips to route (by using all-or-nothing assignment
or constant assignment ratio).
b. Calculate the new level of service for the state that 1/n trips are
already assigned.
c. Assign next 1/n trips.
d. Repeat until all trips are assigned.

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FACTORS THAT AFFECT TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT

1. Speed limit
2. Number of lanes
3. Length of road
4. Density of intersection
5. Time of travel

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