Business Plan Proposal For Launch of Airline Business-KS
Business Plan Proposal For Launch of Airline Business-KS
Business Plan Proposal For Launch of Airline Business-KS
Business
By:
Specialist Advisory Services Group
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman
Chartered Accountants & Management Consultants
March 2008
Table of Contents
• Introduction 3
• Overview of Global Airline Industry 4
• Overview of Airline Industry in Pakistan 6
• Scope of Work 8
• The Advisory Team 12
• Targeted Timelines 17
• Professional Fee Quote 18
• Grant Thornton International 19
• Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman 20
• AccessConsulting 21
• tasc Aviation 22
• GT International Aviation Credentials 23
• Our Aviation Credentials 26
• Strategy Credentials 27
• Other Credentials 35
2
Introduction
The relatively growing traffic picture of the past few years is indicative of the resilience of travel market
in Pakistan. Air travel has also improved over the last few years due to improved macroeconomic
fundamentals, changing geo-political situation, increased economic activity and higher spending
patterns.
Existence of market opportunities along with availability of abundant trained human resources and
fairly well developed infrastructure provides opportunities for investment, however industry dynamics
need to be considered and managed prior to such investments being undertaken.
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman (AASR) – a leading firm of chartered accountants and management
consultants representing Grant Thornton in Pakistan along with its strategic alliance partners, tasc
aviation and AccessConsulting, have extensive experience of providing advisory services in the
aviation industry, developing feasibility studies and business plan for numerous local and international
clients are pleased to offer their services for the proposed assignment.
3
Overview of Global Airline Industry
• The global airline industry is continuously refining their
business models in today’s highly competitive airline
industry environment, with the internet providing
efficiencies for passengers and airlines alike,
globalization and world trade are thriving, and
manufacturers are launching new airplanes that will fly
farther in order to facilitate in lowering costs
• Increase in global GDP is one of the underlying factors
for growth in air travel
• Improving economic factors, such as international
trade and globalization, including declining fares, and
enhanced services will also result in 5% of annual
growth in air traffic and 4.5% in total number of
passengers
Airplanes in Service
• As at 2006, there are 18,230 airplanes in service As at 2006
12,000
however, this number is expected to increase to 36,420 10,920
by 2026 10,000
8,000
6,000
2,000
910
-
747 and Larger Tw in Aisle Single Aisle Regional Jets
4
Overview of Global Airline Industry
Factors Affecting Passenger Growth Trends since 2002 – 2006
Trans-Pacific
North Atlantic
Impact of 9/11
Impact of Europe-Far East
terrorist attack
September 11th
Economic Poor outlook for the
terrorist attacks
slowdown in Within Europe Japanese economy
Economic
US and Japan Strong Chinese growth
slowdown in Continued low cost
China US and Europe carrier expansion Security concerns in South
continues to be Asia
Capacity slowly Competition From
a high growth
returning on high-speed train links
market
key routes
Within Asia
Rapid Expansion of services to and
Europe-Middle East
from China
North America-South America Serious short-term political &
Completion of second Narita
Economic slowdown in US and military concerns
runway sees large increase in intra-
Latin America Continued expansion of Dubai as regional services
Serious financial problems for regional hub & tourist destination
Increased potential for future
many of the carriers in region China-Chinese Taipei direct
services
Europe-Africa
5
Overview of Airline Industry in Pakistan
• Prior to 1993 PIA the state-owned airline operated as a monopoly in both the domestic and international markets. PIA
was established in 1956 after the nationalization of Orient Airways, and witnessed phenomenal and rapid growth in the
1960s and 1970s, and enjoyed a strong reputation internationally.
• The deregulation of the aviation sector in 1993 resulted in a number of private sector airlines being granted permission
to operate in the domestic market. Their apparent business strategy was to operate in the domestic market, which at
the time was considered a loss-making operation due to highly regulated fare structures, which was one the underlying
reasons for consistent lobbying the government for the more lucrative international routes by private carriers. Despite
some success in being able to obtain rights to operate to the Gulf States, none of the private airlines have been able to
establish a significant market presence for air traffic to and from Pakistan. Given increases in passenger fares over the
last few years, private airlines have continued to service the Pakistani domestic market, which has become a lucrative
market.
• The deregulation of the air travel sector in 1993 and an aggressive Open Skies Policy adopted by the Government in
1998 added to PIA’s problems resulting in large operational deficits. Thus, the Government of Pakistan (“GoP”)
intervened to implement restructuring reforms for the airline in April 2001 when it became apparent that the company
would not be able to meet its financial obligations.
• Major reason for failure of previous entrants in the aviation industry from the private sector have been:
– Inadequate capitalization
– Poor aircraft selection
– Lack of professional management
6
Overview of Airline Industry in Pakistan
• Following table provides an overview of existing players in the airline industry of Pakistan:
• Airblue • AST Pakistan • Askari Aviation • Air Mashriq • Aero Asia • Pakistan
• Pakistan Airways • AST Pakistan • Deewan International Aeronautical
International • DHL Cargo Airways International • Bhoja Air Complex
Airlines (PIA) Pakistan • Jahangir Airlines • Cresent Air • Precision
• Shaheen Air • Pakistan Siddiqui • Pearl Air Transport Engineering
International International Charter • Pakistan • Hajvairy Complex
Cargo • JS Air (Private) Airways Airlines • Scaled Aviation
• Royal Airlines Limited • Sialkot • Orient Industries
Cargo • Pakistan Airways (Private)
• Star Air Aviators & Limited
• Pak-Air
• TCS Couriers Aviation • Raji Airlines
• Royal Airlines • Safe Air
• Schon Air
• Princely Jets
7
Scope Of Work
Core areas of focus for undertaking development of a typical airline business plan would be as follows:
Initial Marketing Research
Primary research conducted with airline project principals and GT
– to fully understand their goals and ambitions
– to fully understand the perimeter of the study
Market Analysis
Perform an in-depth market and seasonality analysis
– based on MIDT/ IATA if available for Pakistani market)
Market research to determine the traffic growth levels by market segment
Competitive Analysis
Analysis of existing airline environment
SWOT analysis to determine where profitable market gaps may exist
Understand competition current status and service
Understand competition growth plan and reaction
Concept Feasibility Study
Evaluate the concept from client’s perspective
Assess concept potential
Assess concept risks
Assess concept financial factors
Assess cross-concept potential
Deliver tasc recommendation
8
Scope Of Work
Core areas of focus for undertaking development of a typical airline business plan would be as follows:
Market Plan
Determine basic airline business model
Determine class mix
Determine target markets
Determine market positioning
Determine potential load factor
Network Plan
Route and schedule analysis
Design operations according to aircraft utilisation targets
Evaluate frequency / capacity mix relative to the route characteristics
Operations Plan
Establish aircraft utilisation targets appropriate to business model & operating environment
Determine top-level maintenance strategy
Ground operations
Flight operations
Airport operations
Make top-level make or buy recommendation
9
Scope Of Work
Core areas of focus for undertaking development of a typical airline business plan would be as follows:
Fleet Plan
Full aircraft technical evaluation of 3 aircraft types
Cost / profitability analysis
Fleet plan of aircraft introduction / expansion
Value analysis of fleet scenario
Top-level type recommendation
Commercial Plan
Define the required seat configuration (number of pax)
Determine pricing strategy
Identify the correct airline positioning
Sales and marketing recommendation
Initial market entry
New destination and market launches
Information technology and distribution systems overview
Determine the strategic service advantages
Organizational Plan
Key post-holders
Overall organization structure
10
Scope Of Work
Core areas of focus for undertaking development of a typical airline business plan would be as follows:
5 Years Financial Plan
Using tasc T-Box financial planning tool
Bottom-up cost build-up
Profit and loss forecast
Breakeven analysis
Return on investment
Analysis by different aircraft types
Scenario Analysis
Cash flows
Risks to the Business Case
Assessing financial risk
Assessing legal and global bilateral risks
Assessing domestic political risks
Aircraft availability risks
Exit strategy
Implementation Plan
Identify timelines
Critical dates for start-up of operations
11
The Advisory Team
Every client is extremely important and prestigious for Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman, therefore we have selected a
service team, which reflects the requisite level of importance to understand and deliver our clients requirements.
Project Director
(Kamran Hafeez)
Technical Consultant
(Bruno Adam)
12
The Advisory Team
Kamran Hafeez FCA – Project Director
Kamran Hafeez will act as the Project Director. He is the Partner in-charge of consulting and
business advisory services in Karachi and is a chartered accountant with a Diploma in Finance from
Oxford, UK and an LPSF from Harvard Business School.
He will take overall responsibility of the project, directing the team’s efforts to ensure prompt and
effective delivery and will act as the principal point of contact for the client throughout the life of the
project and would communicate the progress. He will supervise the progress of the team, towards
efficient completion of the project.
As Partner in AASR, he has been extensively involved in aviation sector assignments which
includes diagnostic studies and strategy development for a number of local and international
companies, business plans and strategy studies for leading multinational corporations and research
surveys for customer satisfaction, specialized banking products, business development and new
ventures.
Zohair Ashir – Organisation Specialist
Mr. Zohair Ashir is the Founding Partner & Chief Executive of Access Consulting with MHA from
University of Minnesota & BBA from Memphis State University, USA. His specialty is in Human
Resource & Organizational Development and has over 10 years of experience in consulting
services
13
The Advisory Team
Khalid Safdar – Strategy Specialist
He is an MBA from UK and has over 10 years of experience in working with banks and other financial institutions
under various initiatives. He is currently working with AASR as the Senior Manager and is leading the Strategy &
Growth Team of our firm. He has been involved in numerous assignments of a similar nature for large renowned
corporations of Pakistan.
He has also been involved in the development of systems and standard operating procedures for various clients
including banks, manufacturing companies and hospitality industry sectors within and outside Pakistan. Prior to
AASR, Khalid has worked with Engro Chemical Pakistan Limited and Price Waterhouse Coopers in Pakistan.
Shezad Abdullah – Strategy Specialist
Shezad Abdullah has BBA (Bachelors in Business Administration) from University of North Texas. He has more
than three years of management consulting experience. He has worked on various business plan development,
market research, feasibility studies and strategy formulation assignments. He has also been involved in process
reengineering, systems development and restructuring projects in different functional areas of business
consulting.
Support Staff
Other team members will also include audit, business and finance graduates as support staff for the assignment
to ensure completion of the work in a timely and effective manner.
14
The Advisory Team - tasc
Cronan Enright – Airline Strategy Consultant
Mr. Cronan Enright is a Masters in Business Studies from the University College Dublin Graduate School of Business.
He has an experience of 10 years in aircraft industry and is currently working as the Head of Airline strategy team,
Deputy CEO at tasc aviation. He has worked on various consulting projects for airline industry focusing on network
carriers, low cost carriers, cargo airlines and VIP operators.
Before joining tasc aviation Mr. Cronan was working at aircraft manufacturer Airbus based in Toulouse France, as
Director Marketing for Asia region.
• Donnie Armand – Airline Strategy Consultant
Donnie has been associated with tasc aviation Airline Strategy team since 2007 and is responsible for carrying out
much of the core planning research and financial business modeling. His work includes research, collection, analysis,
forecasting and financial modeling. Donnie was a core team member for the Maximus Air Cargo and Al Jaber Aviation
projects.
Prior to joining tasc, Donnie previously worked in planning, operation and commercial positions with airlines in
Indonesia and Singapore. Donnie’s carrier in aviation and airline industries evolved to include economic planning, fleet
and route/network economical analysis and operation program design for start-ups.
15
The Advisory Team - tasc
• Vladimir Ponjevic – Strategy Consultant
Mr. Vladimir Ponjevic has Bachelors degree in Commerce from South Africa and has completed numerous courses in
the field of advertising, marketing, project management, Information Technology and various other areas. He is a
member of the London-based Royal Aeronautical Society.
He has recently joined tasc aviation and has 10 years of working experience in aviation industry in Europe, Asia and
Africa. Prior to joining tasc aviation, Mr. Vladimir has worked for Qatar Airways, Jat Airways and Emirates Airline Group
on various projects relating to aviation industry.
• Bruno Adam – Strategy Consultant
Mr. Bruno Adam has a strong engineering background gained at an aviation consultancy and has an experience of 12
years of airline customer support activity. At tasc aviation he is employed as Head of Technical Consulting team. He
has set up a complete spares department in Dubai for the company and as well as manages organizations audit and
set-up for several customers in the region.
Prior to joining tasc aviation, Mr. Bruno worked with Airbus in Toulouse, France. He dedicated 5 of his12 years
supporting the engineering and technical operations of Airbus customers and last 7 years as Customer support
Director.
16
Targeted Timelines
An assignment of this nature would ideally be completed within 10 weeks. The chart below illustrates the
activities that will be undertaken throughout the scope of this assignment:
Market Assessment
17
Professional Fee Quote
Based on the nature of this assignment, and the level of effort involved of our team members, our professional
fee for the assignment is estimated as EUR 325,000 payable according to the following schedule:
18
Grant Thornton International
Grant Thornton International is one of the world’s leading professional services
organization
19
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman (AASR) is a leading firm of Chartered Accountants and Specialist
Advisory Services representing Grant Thornton International in Pakistan. The firm has significant
experience with leading Commercial Banks and financial institutions
AASR has 10 Partners & 4 Directors and a total staff strength of over 400 with varying skills and
qualifications including qualified accountants and Masters of Business Administration from
leading universities
Highly advanced in terms of usage of technology within partners and employees
Other services of the firm include audit, accounting, tax, corporate finance and HR advisory
20
AccessConsulting
AccessConsulting formerly known as AASA Consulting was established in 1992 as a private
limited company. It provides specialist Human Resource Management consulting services across
Pakistan. The company has experienced continuous growth since its inception and is considered
a leader in human resource management field and is especially known for delivering value added
and innovative services to both the public and private sector organizations in the country
The firm has the distinction of advising the multilateral & bilateral institutes in various capacities
related to human resource management and organizational development. Other advisory
services provided by the firm are in areas of strategy, research and marketing.
The firm provides a consolidated range of all human resource management and organizational
development services under one roof. Services are designed to assist the government, its
agencies and funding organizations in fulfilling their objectives in a timely manner and consistent
with the ‘Best Practices” models from around the world
AccessConsulting offers a mix of advisory services comprising review and development of HRM
Systems, Organizational Development Activities, Marketing Initiatives, Diagnostic and
Assessment Studies, Capacity Building initiatives, Compensation & Benefits Surveys and other
related services
21
tasc Aviation
tasc is a leading aviation consultancy firm operating in Dubai since 2002
tasc offers a multi-disciplinary range of services including strategy, cabin management, spares,
operations, aircraft delivery management and new airline start consulting
tasc has an extensive experience of providing services to entrepreneurs interested in launching
airline business. Following services are provided by tasc under the scope of this business line:
– refine the initial airline idea
– write the business plan to set out the unique airline advantage
– conduct market analysis to determine the optimum market position
– develop a network plan
– compile the correct aircraft size module and suitable types
– build the operational model by aircraft tail number and route
– build the detailed financial model and project feasibility
22
GT International Aviation Credentials
23
GT International Aviation Credentials
Other International clients
24
GT International Aviation Credentials
Other International clients
25
Our Aviation Credentials
• Development of a strategy and Information Memorandum for private
sector investment and sale of the flight kitchen operations in Pakistan
• AASR were appointed in consortium with KASB as Financial Advisors to
undertake a Due Diligence Review and Valuation of the Flight Kitchen
operations. We undertook comprehensive due diligence process and
assessment of impact on valuation.
Jinnah International • AASR was responsible for Statutory audit, tax planning and personal
Airport taxation of expatriate employees.
Shaheen Airport Services • Carried out a detailed review of SAPS along with other projects of the
Shaheen Foundation using the comprehensive assessment tool called
(SAPS) “Core Point Review” (CPR) for such review.
26
Our Strategy Credentials
Complete evaluation of internal structure of KSE was performed and
details of activities undertaken by each department in the organization
were discussed based on which constraints were identified for both
member and customers to finally develop a competitive analysis of
services being offered with stress on critical and non-critical services
based on earning potential. A detailed study of the regulatory
environment was conducted along with Tax regime and economic
indicators by performing projections, gap analysis and SWOT analysis.
A report of projections and growth estimates was submitted to the
management for their review and feedback. Sensitivity analysis was
performed for each growth indicator and taking in due consideration of
studies performed earlier during the course of project along with
management reviews and responses a final Strategy and Business plan
was submitted
27
Our Strategy Credentials
AASR was appointed to develop Business Plan outlining the future
plans, goals and objectives and Financial Model for Pakistan Textile
City Limited.
28
Our Strategy Credentials
Strategy study for Asea Brown Bovari of Sweden for setting up
of subsidiary in Pakistan
Strategy and research studies for the Artal Group of Belgium, for
setting up their KFC Franchise in Pakistan and for their
Artal Group backward integration projects in the poultry sector
29
Our Strategy Credentials
31
Our Strategy Credentials
A study evaluating the services range and levels of health services in Karachi
and Lahore, in private sector for profit and non-profit health service providers,
for long-term sustainability and strategic planning. The study entailed
assessment of demand and specifically measuring the potential for the
emerging health services, as well as analyzing the current health care seeking
pattern for various diseases amongst the populace of Karachi and Hyderabad
Our firm facilitated Hub Leather, a progressive leather apparel and accessories
producer and marketer, in conducting its Strategic Planning Exercise, which
would determine the future direction of the company and accordingly direct its
organizational restructuring
32
Our Strategy Credentials
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman was appointed by Pakoasis (Pvt.) Ltd. to
undertake a market review of the confectionary sector, covering
demand and supply projections
33
Our Strategy Credentials
Market research study was carried out for the launch of a lending
product directed towards small and medium enterprises (SMEs) as a
part of the Micro Credit business line of the bank
Carrying out a market research & strategy study for the launch of an
asset-based consumer product. Carried out a market sizing study for
all asset and liability based products offered by the bank
Magic River Services Appointed as Lead Financial Advisor for the development of a
(Pvt) Ltd comprehensive financial model and Business Plan for the first
International standard family entertainment facility in Pakistan
Market Research for Carried out market research and demand estimation study to
Frozen Vegetable and establish the potential for undertaking frozen vegetables and food
Food Business business by Icepack Pakistan Limited
34
Our Strategy Credentials
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman were appointed by BMA Capital to undertake a
Housing Sector Review comprehensive market review of the housing sector in Pakistan with emphasis on
low and middle income housing
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman were appointed by a Saudi Investor to carry out a
comprehensive market review of the iron & steel sector in Pakistan with an
emphasis on reinforced steel, covering the demand and supply projections and the
Iron & Steel Sector Review prospective impact of the future development in Afghanistan and Iraq
Anjum Asim Shahid Rahman were appointed to undertake a research for the real
Real Estate Market in estate market in Pakistan to establish potential for real estate construction sector in
Pakistan Pakistan
Conducted a detailed analysis of the Oil and Gas Technical Services provided by
Analysis of the Oil and Gas the Oil and Gas Development Corporation of Pakistan for its business optimization
Technical Services under a World Bank financed study
35
Our Strategy Experience with Banks
Developed business plan for enhancing business operations, consumer business
strategy & Operations Rationalization study for NBP ABN AMRO Bank
Entry strategy and business plan for Qatar Islamic Bank in Pakistan
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank, comprehensive study for launching retail banking operations in
Pakistan
American Express Bank’s regional office, consumer-banking business strategy
ABN AMRO Bank Pakistan, trade finance strategy, mid market strategy, and
branch expansion strategy in second tier cities
ABN AMRO Bank Dubai, strategy for development of back office procedures and
service line efficiency
Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), feasibility
study of Islamic Banking Industry in Pakistan
Standard Chartered Bank, consumer product strategy, SME market study,
customer service quality surveys, market survey of automobile market in Pakistan
Oman
Oman International Bank, Business repositioning study International Bank
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Our Strategy Experience with Banks
Citibank N.A., Credit Advisory Support on Consumer Asset
Products, and periodic corporate performance surveys
Credit Agricole, Strategy Study on Retail/Consumer Banking
Opportunities
United Bank Limited, Product Market Research, Executive Search
Services, and other HR related professional advise
Pak Libya Holding
Developed strategy for Pak-Libya Holding Company for initiation of
Consumer Asset Division
Development of recruitment strategy for Khushhali bank and
processes for the Bank
Conducted a comprehensive Market Study of the Housing Sector in
Pakistan for Saudi Pak Commercial Bank
Union Bank, consumer product strategy study
Market assessment of UAE banking industry, diagnostic analysis of
the institution and strategy formulation for National Bank of Fujairah
Conducted market assessment of banking industry of Pakistan and
developed positioning & growth strategy for the MCB bank
37