Chap 10 IM Common Stock Valuation
Chap 10 IM Common Stock Valuation
Chap 10 IM Common Stock Valuation
Equities
Preferred Stock
Common Stock
Common Stock
Key difference!
Discounted Cash Flow
Techniques
The estimated value of a security is equal to the
discounted value (Present Value) of the future stream of
cash flows that an investor expects to receive from the
security:
Where:
k is the appropriate Discount Rate
Discounted Cash Flow
Techniques
To use Discounted Cash flow Model, an investor must:
Assumptions:
Assume a dividend the stock will pay.
Assume a selling price at the end of 1 year.
Come up with a required rate of return.
Discounted Cash Flow
Techniques - Example
Example:
Stock selling price after 1 year is $70
Stock dividend will be $10
Investors require 25% return
PV = 80/(1.25)
= $64
Discounted Cash Flow
Techniques - Example
Example:
Stock selling price after 1 year is $70
Stock dividend will be $10
Investors require 25% return
PV = 80/(1.25)
= $64
Or,
Po = (D1+P1) / (1+k)
Discounted Cash Flow
Techniques
P1 = (D2+P2) / (1+K)
Discounted Cash Flow
Techniques
Substituting P1 in Po equation:
Formula:
Po = Σ [Dn/ (1+K)n]
Zero-growth:
A Dividend Stream resulting from Fixed dollar
Dividend equal to the current Dividend, Do.
So,
Value of the stock is a Present value of a Perpetuity!
Po = D/K
The Zero Growth rate
model- Example
Po = Do / k
= 2/0.2
= 10
The Constant Growth Rate
Model
The constant Growth rate Case for the DDM reflects a
dividend stream that is expected to grow at a constant
rate g, forever.
Which implies:
If dividend just paid is Do, then the next D1 is:
D1 = Do*(1+g)
Dividend for period 2, D2:
D2 = D1*(1+g)
= [Do*(1+g)] * (1+g)
= Do *(1+g)2
The Constant Growth Rate
Model
Po = Do *(1+g) / (K-g)
OR
P0 = D1 / (K – g)
Dividend Discount Model -
Assumptions
P0 = D1 / (k – g)
= 2.3 *(1.05) / (0.13 - 0.05)
= 2.415 / 0.8
= 30.19
The Constant Growth Rate
Model
Hint:
P5 = D6 / (K – g)
The Constant Growth Rate
Model - example
P5 = D6 / (K – g)
= [2.3 *(1.05)^5] / (0.13-0.05)
= [2.935x(1.05)] / 0.8
= 3.0822 / .08
= 38.53
The Constant Growth Rate
Model - example
& in 4 years?
The Constant Growth Rate
Model - example
0 k = 12% 1 2 3 Years
| gs = 5% | gs = 5% | gn = 10% |
1.00 1.05 1.1025 1.21275
P0 = ? P̂2 = 60.6375 = 1.21275
CFt 0 1.05 61.7400 0.12 0.10
Multiple Growth Rate Case -
Example
The last dividend paid by Klein Company was $1.00.
Klein’s growth rate is expected to be a constant 5
percent for 2 years, after which dividends are
expected to grow at a rate of 10 percent forever.
Klein’s required rate of return on equity (ks) is 12
percent. What is the current price of Klein’s common
stock?
If
Intrinsic Value > Market Price = under-valued
FCFE Model differs from the DDM in the sense that FCFE
measures what firm could pay out as dividends rather than
what they actually paid out.
P0 = Expected FCFE / (K – G)
= 7.2 / (0.13 – 0.06)
= 102.8571
Free Cash Flow to equity Model
– Multiple Growth example
Projected NI for the next year $300 million.
Projected depreciation expense for the next year $50
million.
Projected capital expenditures for the next year $100
million.
Projected increase in operating working capital next year
$60 million.
Interest Expense for the year was $5 million & Company
paid back 50 Million of its debt outstanding but also issued
$4 million of new debt.
Cost of equity 13%.
Number of shares outstanding today 20 million.
The company’s free cash flow is expected to grow at a
constant rate of 12% for three years & then will grow at
6%forever. What is the stock’s intrinsic value today?
Free Cash Flow to equity Model
– Multiple Growth example
OR
FCFF = NI + Depreciation + INT (1-T) – Capital
Expenditures – Changes in Working Capital
Free Cash Flow to Firm Model –
Implementing the model
P/E1 = (D1/E1) / (K – G)
P/E Ratio- Example