Continuous Distn

Continuous
Distribution
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1
Probability Density Functions

The probability distribution for a random variable
describes how probabilities are distributed over the
values of the random variable.
 The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), which provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.
 The required conditions for a continuous probability
function are:
f(x) > 0
dx = 1
 We can describe a continuous probability distribution
with a table, graph, or equation.
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2
Continuous Probability Distributions
 Some Common Ones……

 Uniform Probability Distribution
 Normal Probability Distribution
 Log Normal
 Exponential Probability Distribution
 Gamma
 Beta
Slide
3
Continuous Probability Distributions
 A continuous random variable can assume any value

in an interval on the real line or in a collection of
intervals.
 What we ‘observe’ is discrete/integers, does not
mean they are not continuous
 It is not possible to talk about the ‘point’ probability
of the random variable.
 Instead, talk about the ‘interval’ probability of the
random variable….. area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.
Slide
4
Probability Density Functions

The probability distribution for a random variable
describes how probabilities are distributed over the
values of the random variable.
 The probability distribution is defined by a
probability function, denoted by f(x), which provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.
 The required conditions for a continuous probability
function are:
f(x) > 0
dx = 1
 We can describe a continuous probability distribution
with a table, graph, or equation.
Slide
5
Uniform Probability Distribution
 A random variable is uniformly distributed

whenever the probability is proportional to the
interval’s length.
 Uniform Probability Density Function
f(x) = 1/(b - a) for a < x < b

=0 elsewhere
where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

b = largest value the variable can assume
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6
Normal Probability Distribution
 Graph of the Normal Probability Density Function

f(x)
x

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Characteristics of the Normal Probability Distribution

bell-shaped curve.
m (mean) and s (standard deviation) sufficient.
mean=median=mode
The normal curve is symmetric.
The total area under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of
the mean and .5 to the right).
Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve.
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8
 Characteristics of the Normal Probability

Distribution
• The normal curve is symmetric.
• The standard deviation determines the width of
the curve: larger values result in wider, flatter
curves.
• The total area under the curve is 1 (.5 to the left of
the mean and .5 to the right).
• Probabilities for the normal random variable are
given by areas under the curve.
Slide
9
 % of Values in Some Commonly Used Intervals

• 68.26% (2/3rds) of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 1 standard deviation of its
mean.
• 95.44% (95%) of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 2 standard deviations of its
mean.
• 99.72% (99%) of values of a normal random
variable are within +/- 3 standard deviations of its
mean.
Slide
10
Some Examples
 Quality Controls: Six Sigma

 Highest temperatures of a day
 Ages from a random sample
 Stock market returns
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 Normal Probability Density Function
1 ( x   )2 / 22
f ( x)  e
2 
where:
 = mean
 = standard deviation
Slide
12
Standard Normal Probability Distribution
 A random variable that has a normal distribution

with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one
is said to have a standard normal probability
distribution.
 The letter z is commonly used to designate this
normal random variable.
 Converting to the Standard Normal Distribution
x
z

 We can think of z as a measure of the number of

standard deviations x is from .
Slide
13
Example: Day time high temperatures
For the month of June, the highest temperature has

mean 38 degrees and variance 9 degrees
• The probability that the highest temperature in June
next year will exceed 46?
• The probability that the highest temperature in June
next year will not lie between 36-44?
• The symmetric interval around the mean where the
highest temperature will lie with 90% chance?
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14
Exponential Probability Distribution
 Exponential Probability Density Function

1  x/
 xe> 0,  > 0
f ( x )for

where:  = mean
e = 2.71828
Slide
15
Exponential Probability Distribution
 Cumulative Exponential Distribution Function
P ( x  x0 )  1  e  xo / 
where:
x0 = some specific value of x
Slide
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Example: Toll gate Mess
 Exponential Probability Distribution

The time between arrivals of cars at Gurgaon toll
gate follows an exponential probability distribution
with a mean time between arrivals of 30 seconds. We
would like to know the probability that the time
between two successive arrivals will be 20 seconds
or less.
P(x < 20) = 1 - 2.71828-20/30 = 1 - .5134 = .4866
Slide
17
Example: Toll Gate Mess
 Graph of the Probability Density Function

f(x)
.4
.3 P(x < 20) = area = .4866
.2
.1
x
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time Between Successive Arrivals (secs.)
Slide
18

Continuous Distn

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Continuous Distn

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Continuous

 Some Common Ones……

 A continuous random variable can assume any value

 A random variable is uniformly distributed

f(x) = 1/(b - a) for a < x < b

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

 Graph of the Normal Probability Density Function

Characteristics of the Normal Probability Distribution

 Characteristics of the Normal Probability

 % of Values in Some Commonly Used Intervals

 Quality Controls: Six Sigma

 Normal Probability Density Function

 A random variable that has a normal distribution

 We can think of z as a measure of the number of

For the month of June, the highest temperature has

 Exponential Probability Density Function

 Cumulative Exponential Distribution Function

 Exponential Probability Distribution

 Graph of the Probability Density Function

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