Gold Price Prediction Using Ensemble Based Supervised Machine Learning
Gold Price Prediction Using Ensemble Based Supervised Machine Learning
Gold Price Prediction Using Ensemble Based Supervised Machine Learning
INTERNAL GUIDE
Mrs. M .MANASA
ASSISTANT PROFEESSOR
2 INTRODUCTION
3 SYSTEM ANALYSIS
4 SYSTEM SPECIFICATION
5 MODULES
6 SYSTEM DESIGN
7 ALGORITHMS
8 SYSTEM TESTING
9 CONCLUSION
ABSTRACT
• The bar graphs and dataset are implemented using the support
vector machine algorithm and ARMA model.
SYSTEM ANALYSIS
EXISTING SYSTEM
• Open,Close,High,Low,Volume of commodity
• Text mining and artificial neural networks (ANN)
• Extreme learning machines (ELM)
They conclude that ELM performs the best with accuracy of 93.82%.
PROPOSED SYSTEM
The column labeled ‘Proposed’ lists the attributes used
by us to build the models.
• Dataset
• Correlation analysis
• Machine Learning Models
ADVANTAGES
• Consumption demand
• Protection against volatility
• Gold and interest rates
• Gold and inflation
SYSTEM SPECIFICATION
HARDWARE SOFTWARE
REQUIREMENTS REQUIREMENTS
• System •Operating system
Intel i3. Windows 10 Ultimate.
• Hard Disk • Coding Language :
40 GB Python(anaconda distributed).
• Floppy Drive • Front-End
1.44 MB Python.
• Monitor •Data set :
14 Color Monitor Kaggle
• Mouse
Optical Mouse
• RAM
512 MB or higher
MODULES
• User
• Data and Methodology
• Linear Regression
• Random Forest Regressor
• Gradient Boosting Regression
SYSTEM DESIGN
SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE
DATA FLOW DIAGRAM
UML DIAGRAMS
Loading Dataset
Dataset shape
Gold Price
Random forest
Pandas +data_inr.csv
+list
+file path = data_inr.csv
+head()
+Read.csv=data(data_inr.csv) +Indianrupees()
+Year()
+Price()
Algoritham
+MSE
+MAE
+RMSE
+Linear Regression()
+Random Forest()
SEQUENCE DIAGRAM
pandas Dataset Algoritham
1 : Loading Dataset()
2 : Dataset Loaded()
3 : Gold Price()
4 : MAE()
5 : MSE()
6 : RMSE()
7 : Logistic Regression()
8 : Random Forest()
ACTIVITY DIAGRAM
Loading Dat aset
Loading
dataset
Loading
Loading
Dataf rame Created
Yes
Indian Rupees
Created
Increase MA E
Decrease
Indian Rupees
MSE
RMSE
Random forest
RMSE
Logistic regression
Predicted
Future
Random forest
ALGORITHMS
Ridge CV
• Ridge regression addresses some of the problems of Ordinary Least Squares by
imposing a penalty on the size of coefficients. The ridge coefficients minimize
a penalized residual sum of squares,
Types of testing
• Unit testing
• Functional testing
• Integration testing
• White box testing
• Black box testing
• Unit testing
• Acceptance testing
TEST CASES
S.NO Test Case for gold price Expected Result Result Remarks
1 Histogram diagram Success Pass If Histogram not available
2 Line graph diagram Success Pass If Line graph not available
3 Linear regression Success Pass If LR not available
4 Random forest Success Pass If RF not available
5 Gradient boosting Success Pass If GBR not available
6 Indian rupee Success Pass If INR not available
7 Result for RMSE Success Pass If RMSE not available
8 R Square Success Pass If R square not available
9 ACF and PACF plots Success Pass If ACF,PACF not available
10 State space model Success Pass If statemodel not available
11 Accuracy measure-LR Success Pass If Accuracy measure not
available
12 Accuracy measure-RF Success Pass If Accuracy measure not
available
SCREENSHOTS
SNAPSHOT OF DATA
EXLORATORY VISUALIZATION OF DATA
DAILY RETURNS OF GOLD AND OTHER FACTORS
GOLD MOVING AVERAGE
OPEN-CLOSE & HIGH-LOW PRICES
SCATTER PLOTS
REVIEW OF BENCHMARK AND SOLUTION MODEL
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ACTUAL vs. PREDICTED
GOLD PRICE COMPARISON FOR 14 YEARS
CONCLUSION
• In this study, we used machine learning algorithms to predict the gold rates
very accurately.
• Our study is also the most comprehensive to date, thus taking into
consideration various economic indicators of various countries and
companies.
FUTURE EXTENSIBILITY
• Monthly Returns
• Performance of gold with markets
• Break-up of Historical demand of gold data Should you invest?
• Gold ETF rise and fall
• Gold Inflation
ANY QUERIES..?