U.S. Congress, Presidency and The Courts The Presidential Election Process September 17, 2019

U.S.
Congress, Presidency and the Courts

The Presidential Election Process
September 17, 2019
J. BRYAN COLE
POLS 1337
Overview and Candidates
Selecting the U.S. President
Remember:
 Article II of the Constitution only talks about the Electoral College

 The U.S. presidency hasn’t always been the leader of the free world
The rest of the process has evolved gradually since then, particularly
during the 20th century
Do you think that this process is adequate for selecting the leader of
the free world?
As of now, many Democrats have declared their intention to seek thei
r party’s nomination for President; some have already dropped out!
These Democrats are Running for President (click on their names to
access their websites)
 Michael Bennet
 Joe Biden
 Cory Booker
 Steve Bullock
 Pete Buttigieg
 Julian Castro
 Bill De Blasio
 John Delaney
 Tulsi Gabbard
 Kirsten Gillibrand
 Kamala Harris
 John Hickenlooper
 Jay Inslee
 Amy Klobuchar
 Wayne Messam
 Seth Moulton
 Richard Ojeda
 Beto O'Rourke
 Tim Ryan
 Bernie Sanders
 Eric Swalwell
 Tom Steyer
 Elizabeth Warren
 Marianne Williamson
 Andrew Yang
Currently, Democratic
candidates are
campaigning and debating
for their political party’s
nomination to challenge
Donald Trump next year
The Democratic National

Committee sponsors these
debates and sets the
eligibility guidelines
This article contains basic

information about the upc
oming debate
Democratic Debate, Sept. 12, 2019

We will watch a portion of
this debate next week!
Lastly, as the current
President, Donald
Trump is the race’s
incumbent
This website includes inf

o about campaign rallies
This website contains mo

re specific information a
bout the issues
President Trump Seeks A Second

Term
Republican Challengers
President Trump faces
several challengers from
within his own party:
 Former Congressman Joe

Walsh
 Former Massachusetts Go
vernor Bill Weld
 Likewise
, former Congressman and
SC Governor Mark Sanfor
d just threw his hat in the
ring
The Presidential Nomination
Process
History of the Nomination Process
 Since the Progressive Era (early
20th century), candidates for
public office have to win two
elections:
 Primaries or caucuses, then

 General elections
 Initially, these were limited to

state and local contests, but
spread to presidential contests
 Primaries and caucuses are to

select delegates to attend the
parties’ national conventions
Caucuses and Primaries
Primaries Caucuses
People go to vote for People go to meetings

delegates to attend the to adopt party
conventions platforms and select
candidates
Secret ballots
No secrecy
A short, simple process
Long process
General Remarks about the Primaries/Caucuses
Primaries and caucuses occur sequentially, i.e. different states hol

d them at different times
Parties, including state level organizations, have lots of control

over how these are conducted and how the delegates are allocated:
 Winner-take-all or
 Proportional representation (Democrats do this nationwide; Republicans did so
for at least the first two weeks of March 2016)
 Republican party organizations in Kansas, Nevada, and South Carolina have an
nounced that they won't hold primaries/caucuses, instead giving all their delega
tes to President Trump
Everything You Need to Know about How the Presidential Primary

Works, from The Washington Post, May 12, 2015.
Who Are the Delegates? What Do They Do?
In the primaries and caucuses, people are technically voting for
delegates, not the candidates themselves
Delegates are pledged to support one candidate at the national

conventions
But they can change their minds if their chosen candidate drops out
Number of delegates:
 Democrats have 4,765 delegates, including 714 superdelegtes (see next slide)
 Republicans have 2,472 delegates
What about Democratic Superdelegates?
At-large delegates (no one votes for them)
Became very controversial in 2008 and again in

2016
Bernie Sanders rips the superdelegate system, From

CNN.
In late 2018, the Democratic National Committee vot

ed to reduce the influence of superdelegates
1968 Democratic National Convention - Chicago
Eugene McCarthy had

won a large number of
primaries, but the
delegates nominated
Hubert Humphrey
McGovern-Fraser
Commission institutes
reforms which
(unintentionally) allowed
the Iowa Caucuses to gain
influence
Iowa Caucus Overview
Iowa has layered caucuses, so the delegates aren’t formally

selected until much later:
 Initial contests in precincts

 County caucuses
 Congressional district caucuses
 Statewide convention
McGovern-Fraser Commission opens up participation to

rank-and-file members and requires greater transparency in
delegate selection (which means that delegates can’t get
selected more than a year before the convention)
The 1976 Presidential Election and the Accident of the Iowa
Caucuses
A then-unknown
Southern governor
comes in 1st place in the
Iowa caucuses (28%),
though 37% were
uncommitted
The modern-day Iowa

caucus is born!
How Caucuses Work (and Generate Controversy)
Inside a Caucus: Iowa 2008
Turnout
 Often about 6 percent; was a record 12 percent in 2008

 What kinds of people vote in primaries?
 Is Iowa representative of the nation as a whole?

These 2016 Republican Candidates Suspended Their Campaigns
Before Iowa
Rick Perry
Scott Walker
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki
Results of Recent Iowa Caucuses
Democrats Republicans
2008: Barack Obama 2008: Mike Huckabee
2012: Barack Obama 2012: Rick Santorum

(uncontested)
2016: Ted Cruz

2016: Bernie Sanders
Primaries
Off to New Hampshire!
More like traditional elections, but there are

sometimes restrictions concerning who is allowed to
participate
Types of primaries (next slide)

Who Gets to Vote in the Primaries?
Criticisms of Closed
Types of Primaries
Primaries
Open primaries: any registered voter
Bernie Sanders has rep
may vote in either primary (but not
both); notice opportunities for eatedly called for endin
strategic voting g closed primaries, Fro
Semi-open primaries (Texas): you
m The Daily Mail, May
can request a ballot for either party,
30, 2016.
but it will a matter of public record
Closed primaries: you have to be

Others are skeptical th
registered officially with a given at closed primaries hav
political party in order to vote in its e harmed Sanders, Fro
primary m Bill Scher, Real Clea
r Politics, May 2, 2016.
Results of Recent New Hampshire Primaries
Democrats Republicans
2008: Hillary Clinton 2008: John McCain
2012: Barack Obama 2012: Mitt Romney

(uncontested)
2016: Donald Trump

2016: Bernie Sanders
More Casualties!
After Iowa After New Hampshire
Mike Huckabee Chris Christie

Rand Paul Carly Fiorina
Rick Santorum Jim Gilmore
Jeb Bush (after South
Carolina)
Texas Presidential Primary
Held on March 1 as part of
Super Tuesday
Winners:
 Hillary Clinton
 Ted Cruz
Ben Carson dropped out

subsequently
Later: Rubio, Cruz, and

Kasich dropped out
Frontloading
Frontloading: moving caucuses and primaries up in

order for your state to have more say in who the
nominees will be
Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire are first
Now, both political parties have cracked down on this

practice
The General Election Campaign
The Conventions
Historically In Recent Years
Very great suspense  Now, these events are just

formalities
Select the parties’ nominees
 Gives each party a week in
Announcements of VP the spotlight
candidates and acceptance
speeches by both candidates  Still feature acceptance
speeches and setting of
Setting party platforms party platforms
Party Platforms
Usually, their adoption is low-
key; in 2016, Sen. Sanders
worked aggressively to secure
certain statements in the
Democrats’ platform
What Sanders Won in 2016. Fro

m Slate, July 11, 2016.
Republican Platform
Democrat Platform
George W. Bush and Debates
“I had seen enough politics
to know you can’t really win
a debate. You can only lose
by saying something stupid
or looking tired or nervous…
I made my case confidently
and avoided any major
gaffes” (p. 54)
Bush commenting on his

1994 gubernatorial debate
with incumbent Ann
Richards
Debates in 2016
For each election, the
parties and candidates
must agree on the terms
of the debates
Highlights from the final

debate, October 19, 2016.
2016 Presidential Debates
September 26 – Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY
October 4 – Longwood University, Farmville, VA

(Vice Presidential Debate)
October 9 – Washington University – St. Louis, MO

(Town hall style debate)
October 19 – University of Nevada, Las Vegas – Las

Vegas NV
Toward Election Day
After the debates:
 Final push for ads and winning over the (by now) very small number of
“undecideds”
 GOTV activities begin, especially in states with early voting
Election Day on the 1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday in

November…why?
 November is between the end of the harvest and the first snowfall in
most places
 People couldn’t travel in their horse-and-buggies on Sundays
The Electoral College
The Electoral College Meets
Electoral College meets
on the 1st Monday after
the 2nd Wednesday in
December
Meetings occurred in
state capitols on Dec. 19,
2016
Which five states swung
from the Democrats in
2012 to the Republicans
in 2016?
The 2016 Presidential Election

Election Results
Popular Vote Electoral College
Hillary Clinton: Hillary Clinton: 227

65,844,954 votes (48.2 votes
percent)
Donald Trump: Donald Trump: 304

62,979,879 votes (46.1 votes
percent)
Meeting of the Electoral College
On Monday, December 19, 2016, the Electoral College met

in the 50 state capitols and formally elected Donald Trump
as President
Note below that some states (including Texas) had

“faithless electors”
Donald Trump Secures Electoral College Win, With Few Su

rprises; From NPR. December 19, 2016.

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U.S.

Congress, Presidency and the Courts

 Article II of the Constitution only talks about the Electoral College

The Democratic National

This article contains basic

Democratic Debate, Sept. 12, 2019

This website includes inf

This website contains mo

President Trump Seeks A Second

 Former Congressman Joe

 Primaries or caucuses, then

 Initially, these were limited to

 Primaries and caucuses are to

People go to vote for People go to meetings

Primaries and caucuses occur sequentially, i.e. different states hol

Parties, including state level organizations, have lots of control

Everything You Need to Know about How the Presidential Primary

Delegates are pledged to support one candidate at the national

At-large delegates (no one votes for them)

Became very controversial in 2008 and again in

Bernie Sanders rips the superdelegate system, From

In late 2018, the Democratic National Committee vot

Eugene McCarthy had

Iowa has layered caucuses, so the delegates aren’t formally

 Initial contests in precincts

McGovern-Fraser Commission opens up participation to

The modern-day Iowa

Inside a Caucus: Iowa 2008

 Often about 6 percent; was a record 12 percent in 2008

 Is Iowa representative of the nation as a whole?

2008: Barack Obama 2008: Mike Huckabee

2012: Barack Obama 2012: Rick Santorum

2016: Ted Cruz

Off to New Hampshire!

More like traditional elections, but there are

Types of primaries (next slide)

Closed primaries: you have to be

2008: Hillary Clinton 2008: John McCain

2012: Barack Obama 2012: Mitt Romney

2016: Donald Trump

After Iowa After New Hampshire

Mike Huckabee Chris Christie

Ben Carson dropped out

Later: Rubio, Cruz, and

Frontloading: moving caucuses and primaries up in

Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire are first

Now, both political parties have cracked down on this

Historically In Recent Years

Very great suspense  Now, these events are just

What Sanders Won in 2016. Fro

Bush commenting on his

Highlights from the final

September 26 – Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

October 4 – Longwood University, Farmville, VA

October 9 – Washington University – St. Louis, MO

October 19 – University of Nevada, Las Vegas – Las

After the debates:

Election Day on the 1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday in

The 2016 Presidential Election