Global Energy stance and the

scenario for Sustainable Sources

Messages

 Energy demand will continue to grow strongly

 Alternatives to “Business as Usual” (BAU)
can limit emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate
 Investments need to be large
 Strong environmental policies will be required
 Space Solar Power will be competitive

2
Outline

 Concerns
 Drivers for energy needs
 Current world energy situation
 Energy trends
 Approaches to stabilizing GHG emissions
– Decarbonizing fossil fuels
– Expanding the use of renewables
 Renewables that will be significant
 Investments
 Space Solar Power will be competitive 3
Concerns

 The World Energy Outlook – Troubling! Why?

– Continuing BAU will aggravate climate impacts
– Alternatives to present sources will be challenging to
implement at the needed scale
– Consumption will grow as population increases and
must grow to help those in energy poverty
– Food and fiber production must be increased without
damaging lands and biota
– Global energy infrastructure is so vast and complex
that change can come only slowly
4
Drivers For Energy Needs

 Population
– Currently 6.5 Billion
– Expect 10 B by 2050 and 11.6 B by 2100
 Economic activity
– Gross world product currently $38 Trillion
– Expect $75 B by 2050 and $200+ B by 2100
 Efficiency of energy utilization
 Desire to reduce inequities in global energy
availability
5
The Current World Energy Situation

 Will be described by:

– Total quantity of energy produced and its
distribution among major economic regions
– Level of economic activity supported by this
quantity of energy
– Sources of energy
– Resource availability
– Environmental implications
6
Quantity of Energy and
Economic Activity

 World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in

2006 --15,600 GWth
 Gross World Product -- $38 Trillion US
 Population -- 6.5 Billion
 TPES per person --2.4KW
 Carbon emissions --7,600 MtC

7
TPES per Person by Region

KWth
8
Primary Energy Sources - 2004

9
Distribution of the 0.5% of “Others”

10
Resource Availability &
Environmental Implications

 Near Term Resources:

“There are sufficient reserves of most types of
energy resources to last at least several
decades at current rates of use” … IPCC
 Environment: A major and growing issue

11
Energy Trends

 Projections are based on the scenarios of the

World Energy Council/IIASA and extend to 2100
 Drivers are:
– Population – 10.06 Billion in 2050, 11.65 by 2100
– Economic Activity - $75 to 100 B depending on
scenario
– Technology choices - especially acceptability of coal
and nuclear
 Three broad scenarios – A) High growth; B)
“Business as usual”; C) Ecologically driven 12
Energy History and Projections

GWth

13
Representative Scenarios

 Three of the WEC scenarios chosen to

illustrate a range of possible energy futures:
B - BAU
A2 - highest emissions scenario
C1 - least use of nuclear

14
Environmental Outlook

 Only the “Ecologically-Driven” scenarios

reduce emissions significantly
 Net emissions of energy-related Carbon are
reduced to tolerable levels by 2100
 Atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100
stabilizes in the range of 450 to 550 ppm
 This concentration should limit warming to
two to three degrees C
 Each of these has its own particular makeup
of energy sources 15
Energy Share by Source - B

16
Energy Share by Source - A2

Year
17
Energy Share by Source – C1

18
Outlook for Resource Availability

 WEC projects adequate resource availability

over the next 100 years, but foresees that a
shift in sources will be driven by:
– Environmental impacts
– Economic recoverability of the resources

19
Net Carbon Emissions from Energy

20
Approaches To Stabilizing
GHG Emissions

 There are two fundamental approaches on

the energy front:
– Reducing the impact of fossil fuels, i.e.,
“Decarbonizing” them
– Expanding the use of renewables or nuclear

21
Decarbonizing Fossil Fuels

 Approaches include:
– Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal
– Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels
– Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS):
 “upstream” in the supply process, or
 “downstream” in the utilization process

 These measures are necessary but not sufficient

– major expansion in the supply from renewable
sources is vital
22
Renewables

 Renewable sources include: hydro,

biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and
various forms of ocean/tidal/wave energy
 Each has its own peculiar advantages and
drawbacks
 Only some can be exploited at a scale and
in a time frame that will make a significant
contribution
23
Sources Viewed as Limited

 Hydro – only modest scope for expansion

 Biomass – important for fuels, but limited by
competition for land
 Geothermal - locally important, but not a large-
scale source unless the “Engineered Geothermal
Systems” approach can be developed
successfully
 Ocean/tidal/wave - resources are immense yet
diffuse and expensive to exploit
24
Nuclear Outlook

 Nuclear suffers from concerns over public

acceptance, final waste management and
proliferation risk
 Little capacity is being added in the OECD
countries and some is being removed
 However, China, Russia and India have
ambitious programs
 More widespread use may be needed to meet
emissions targets 25
Significant Renewables:
Solar and Wind

 Total energy available from these sources is

immense, but the energy density is low
 Product is largely electricity, the most useful
form of energy
 The C1 scenario projects that these
sources, along with biomass for fuels, will be
the dominant sources of the future

26
Electricity from Solar and Wind

TWhr

Year
27
The Matter of Intermittency

 It is critical to recognize that solar and

wind are intermittent sources and can be
used immediately by the power grid only
to the extent of 20 - 25% of production
 Solar and wind can be more fully exploited
to meet base load needs if storage can be
provided or if the electricity is used to
generate hydrogen
28
Electricity from Solar and Wind:
Extent of Immediate Use

Total
Electricity
Electricity from
Solar + Wind

29
Cost Impact of Intermittency

 Solar and wind installations with storage (to

serve base load needs) will be more expensive
than those providing peak power
 Capital costs, by mid-century, of such plants is
estimated at ≈ $7000 per KWe
 Incremental investment to accommodate this
intermittency is estimated at ≈ $1T per year
beginning around 2040 (just over 1% of GWP)
30
Energy Investments

 Recent capital expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP

 Implementing energy scenarios that reduce
emissions significantly will be more costly
 Stern Report documents cost estimates at 1%
of GWP by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric
concentration of CO2 at 500-550ppm
 WEC notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of
GWP 31
Outlook for Space Solar Power

 Capital costs for Space Solar Power

installations are estimated to be on the order
of $4000 per KWe
 If terrestrial installations for solar and wind
providing base load power run $7,000 per
KWe and a Trillion dollars a year is needed
to build the needed capacity, then Space
Solar Power should be very competitive
32
An Assessment

 Implementing an energy future such as C1 will

be extremely challenging, requiring:
– Enormous investments
– Strong environmental policies
– Continuing international cooperation for decades
 Consequences of failing to follow such a path:
– Serious climate impacts or
– Expansion of nuclear supply and/or
– Resort to more use of fossil fuels
33
 What Could Change This Picture?

 Cheaper ways to store electricity

 Power grids of international scale
 Economic means of exploiting geothermal or
ocean energy
 Success in exploiting nuclear fusion

34
Recommendations

 Promote a better general understanding of

the world energy situation
 Support all plausible sources of sustainable
and clean energy, especially Space Solar
Power
 Support policy actions that reduce emissions,
importantly, putting a price on carbon
 Support policy actions that improve efficiency
 Start now 35
Take Away

 Energy demand will continue to grow strongly

 Alternatives to “Business as Usual” can limit
emissions to acceptable levels
 Renewable sources will dominate
 Investments need to be large
 Strong environmental policies will be required
 Space Solar Power will be competitive

36