Climate Change/Global Warming:

Its Impacts and some

mitigation/adaptation strategies

EDNA L. JUANILLO
ASSISTANT WEATHER SERVICES CHIEF
PAGASA-DOST
 Definition of Terms
Weather - is the specific condition of the atmosphere at a
particular place and time. It is measured in terms
of such things as wind, temperature, humidity,
atmospheric pressure, cloudiness and precipitation. In
most places, weather can change from hour-to-hour and
season-to-season.

Climate - is the “average weather” and its long term

variability over a particular period or over month,
season, year or several years.

Climate Variability - refers to the fluctuations / variations

of climate observed since the instrumental period
(1860 to present). These fluctuations are due to
natural causes and to human activities.
 Definition of Terms

Season - a division of the year according to some

regularly recurrent phenomena, usually astronomical or
climatic. In the tropics, precipitation is the primary
factor, thus, nearly, all regions have their rainy season
and dry season.

Anomaly – the deviation of (usually) temperature or

precipitation in a given region over a specified period
from the normal value for the same region
Normal – the average value of a meteorological element
over any fixed period of years that is recognized as
standard for the country and element concerned.
30-year period as mandated by WMO.
 The climate of the Philippines is influenced by
the complex interactions of the various factors
such as

 Philippine Geography and Topography

 Semi-permanent cyclones and
anti- cyclones
 Principal Air Streams & Linear systems
 Ocean currents
 ENSO events
 Tropical Cyclones
Recently, it has been accepted that
human activity is also affecting climate
1
 PRINCIPAL AIRSTREAMS

SOUTHWEST
MONSOON
(HABAGAT)
N

W E

S
NORTHEAST Cold air from Siberia
MONSOON
(AMIHAN)
N

W E

S
INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE (ITCZ)

L L
L L
 ALONG THE FRONT, CLOUDS DEVELOP
C BRINGING HEAVY RAINS

O
L
D

WARM AIR
F Cold Air RISES
R Mass
Clouds form in front of the cold front an
O rise as the cold air moves into the
warmer air.

N
The precipitation begins to fall ahead of
COLD AIR the cold front line. This type of collision
SINKS can cause more severe storms which are
T relatively shorter in duration.
Linear Systems

These include:
 ITCZ NT
O
 Frontal systems FR
L D
 easterly waves CO

ITCZ L ITCZ L
ITCZ L ITCZ L

ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT

(TAIL-END AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND
ITCZ AFFECTING SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND
MINDANAO
 Tropical Cyclone
Tropical cyclones threaten lives and property because of
their high winds, associated storm surge, excessive rain
and flooding.
CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION Maximum
winds near the center of between 35 and 64
KPH
TROPICAL STORM Maximum winds
near the center of between 64 KPH and
118 KPH
TYPHOON Maximum winds exceed
118 KPH
(Super Typhoon- was conceived by JTWC with max
winds of greater than 200 kph near the center)
Philippine Area of Responsibility

25oN, 135oE
25oN, 120oE

21oN, 120oE

15oN, 115oE

5oN, 115oE

5oN, 135oE
 What is ENSO?
El Niño
La Niña

 ENSO stands for El Niño-Southern

Oscillation.
 A complex interaction of tropical Pacific
Ocean and the global atmosphere.
 Currently used by scientists to describe
the irregular cycle of warming and cooling
of the sea surface temperatures of Tropical
Pacific Ocean (along Equator, Peru, and
Chile).
 This warming/cooling disrupts the
atmospheric heat balance and changes
winds patterns mainly over the Pacific
Ocean. However, the impacts can be
observed regionally across the Philippines
and the globe. El Niño (warm) Conditions
December 1997

 Warm phase of ENSO is typically

known as “El Niño” and cold phase is
known as “La Niña”.

 One cycle occurs every 2-7 years but

occurs irregularly and less predictable.
La Niña (cold) Conditions
(December 1998)
 Key Information on ENSO

 It is when the ocean surface temperatures fluctuates

significantly from the norm
 El Niño = higher than normal sea surface
temperature (SST)
La Niña = lower than normal SST
Sustained anomalies of greater (lesser) than 0.5 oC are
required.

 For the atmmosphere- Southern Oscillation Index

(SOI) is negative (-) for El Niño
and positive (+) for La Niña
Key information …….

• It occurs in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

off the coast of South America.

• ENSO is associated with flood, drought, and

other disturbances; its impact can be global.
• The recent occurrence was in June 2009 up to
the present

El Niño
WHAT IS EL NIÑO (LA NIÑA)?
El Niño (La Niña) is a condition in the Pacific ocean
and characterized by the cyclic warming (cooling) of
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).

Observed Sea
Surface
Temperature

Lower Higher Lower Higher

temp temp temp temp

Analyzed Sea
Surface CEEP warming CEEP cooling

Temperature

Cooler Warmer Cooler Warmer

temp temp temp temp

EL NIÑO LA NIÑA
Monthly
observation and
analysis of
OCEAN SURFACE
during El Niño
1997-98 and La
Niña 1998-99

El Nino 1997 started in

March
La Nina 1998 started in
July
Thus, “EL NIÑO” is a condition in the central
and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean where
unusual warming is occurring. (Note that
the formation/development of El Niño is
very far from the country.. )

Then, why is it affecting the philippines..

The answer lies in the atmosphere…

The phenomenon is called SOUTHERN

OSCILLATION…
 COMBINED EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO) IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
 

EL NIÑO LA NIÑA

GLOBAL IMPACT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN

OSCILLATION (ENSO)

EL NIÑO LA NIÑA
THE NIÑO REGIONS
 IMPACTS OF ENSO and NON-ENSO ON
PHILIPPINE ANNUAL RAINFALL

Legend: Potential
Areas Under
Severe drought
impacts
Drought impacts
with major losses
Moderate drought
impacts
Near normal to
above normal
condition
Way above
normal condition

Flood damage

Severe flood
damage

RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years
and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years
Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on
general influences of ENSO on Philippine climate
During El Niño Episode During La Niña Episode
Weak
 
monsoon activity  
Moderate to strong monsoon
              
- delayed onset of the rainy season
activity
- early termination of the rainy
- increased cloudiness and widespread
season
- occurrence of isolated heavy rainfall rains
- near normal to early onset of the
in short duration
rainy season
Weak tropical cyclones activity Moderate to Strong tropical
- tropical cyclones follow tracks cyclones activity
further off the Philippines - near normal cyclone tracks (near
- less number of tropical cyclones and/or crossing the country)
entering the Philippine Area - near-to-above normal cyclone
of Responsibility (PAR) occurrences in the PAR
- rain-effective cyclones
Below normal rainfall Above normal rainfall
Above normal air temperatures Near-to-below normal air
temperatures
Drier weather conditions Wetter weather conditions
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Fourth Assessment Report
(IPCC AR4)

Warming of the climate

system is
UNEQUIVOCAL!
 Climate Change Issue

Increased use Global Climate

of fossil fuel Warming Change

Consumption of fossil fuels increases

- 1.6 times over the last 4 decades

Global Warming
- Global average temperature rise:0.74oC
during the last 100 years
 What is global warming?
• Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s
mean temperature as a result of enhanced greenhouse
effect.

• global average air

temperature
increased by 0.74°C
from 1906 to 2005

• Strong temperature
increase since 1975
(unprecedented)

collective picture of a warming world

 2008 GLOBAL CLIMATE PATTERNS

CANADA
3RD
SNOWIEST WINTER
UZBEKISTAN
NORTHERN EUROPE JANUARY COLDWAVE
UNITED SATES
POWERFUL STORMS LOWEST TEMP IN 40
HEAVY RAIN AND YEARS
FLOODING IN JUBE UNITED KINGDOM
SPAIN AND CHINA
PORTUGAL WETTEST SUMMER
TORNADO WORST SEVERE
WINTER IN 5 DECADES
WORST DROUGHT

NORTHERN AFRICA MUMBAI, INDIA Philippines

HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN
FLOODING 7 YEARS
Highest no. of
TC for May
BRAZIL
HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING

CHILE
WORST
DROUGHT IN 5
DECADES
CLIMATE CHANGE = CHANGE IN CLIMATE
attributable directly to human activity that alters the composition of
the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods.

CLIMATE CHANGE

GLOBAL WARMING
(Increase in Global Temperature)

GLOBAL WARMING
(Increase in Green House Gases)
• If there is no “natural greenhouse effect”,
the earth’s surface will be -15.0oC colder.
 • Carbon dioxide
• Methane
• Nitrous Oxide

These are naturally found in the

atmosphere and they trap heat close to
the Earth’s surface.
CARBON DIOXIDE METHANE

NITROUS OXIDE
- Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen
in Soils and Ocean
CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil
Fuels(Oil,Coal) by Powerplants, Industries
and Vehicles
Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural
Waste Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas
Production
Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects
Nitrous Oxide:

• Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans

• Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture
• Biomass Burning
• Combustion Process Vehicles
• Acid Production
Hydrofluorocarbons
(HFCs)

Perfluorocarbons
(PFCs)

Sulfur hexafluoride
(SF6)
Signals of Climate Change …
Indicators of human influence

Increasing
concentrations of
these GHGs in the
atmosphere
Carbon dioxide is the most abundant GHG in
the atmosphere
 Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

Gobal mean
temperature

Global average
sea level

Northern hemisphere
Snow cover

Source: IPCC
OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE
PHILIPPINES
 Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running mean

31
y = -0.0104x + 19.755
26
Frequency of tropical Cyclones

21

16

11

1
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Year

Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)
 TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

1971-00
250

1951-80

1961-90
200

51-80
Number

150
61-90
71-00
100

50

LUZON
Luzon VISAYAS
Visayas
MINDANAO
Mindanao
Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines
Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006

 Anomaly of Annual Philippine Rainfall With Normal Base Period 1961- 1990
Annual
150 5 years mean
125
100
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
-125
-150
IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VULNERABILITY OF THE PHILIPPINES
 HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODINGS AND
INUNDATIONS

• Archipelago, composed
of 7,100 islands with low
lying areas
• Highly susceptible to
sea level rise
• Among longest
coastlines in the world
with 32,400 kms
(susceptible to storm
surges)
Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines

NORTHEAST
MONSOON
(AMIHAN)

TROPICAL
CYCLONE

L
L L
L
SOUTHWEST INTERTROPICAL
MONSOON CONVERGENCE
(HABAGAT) ZONE (ITCZ)
 • Typhoons and Floods

The Philippines is located in the typhoon belt. An average

of 20 tropical cyclones visit the country every year and
incidents of flooding are higher in the country than
anywhere else.

Source: PAGASA
 Mean annual frequency by
category (1948- 2005)

10.1
12

10

8 5.4
3.9
6

0
Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Typhoon
Typhoon Incidence
(1948 – 2006)
 Extreme Weather Events

Floods

Landslides

Strong winds toppled

electric wires & trees

Typhoon “YOYONG”
NANMANDOL (30 Nov.- 03 Dec.
2004). Coastal inundation due
to storm surge
LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS
TYPHOON PEPENG
September 30-October 10
TS Ondoy brought the worst rainfall to Metro Manila among
recorded typhoons since the start of rainfall record keeping,
producing only moderate winds but hours of extremely heavy rains.
Metro Manila experienced the highest rainfall in history that
brought heavy flooding.
PAGASA documented a record-high amount of rainfall in 24 hours
at 455 mm (17.9 in) recorded on September 26. And also, the amount
of rainfall recorded for six hours, which was at 341.3 mm
(13.44 in), was comparable to the 24 hour rainfall in 1967.
SCIENCE GARDEN Greatest Daily RR = 334.5 mm ( June 7, 1967).
HIGHLIGHTS
 The Philippines is highly vulnerable to the impacts of
tropical cyclones: flooding, high winds, storm surges and
landslides.
 Increasing trend in annual mean temperature
 No trend in rainfall pattern

 No trend in the total number of annual tropical cyclones

PHILIPPINE RESPONSE
TO ADDRESS CLIMATE
CHANGE ISSUES
Strategy - Community based concept
Community-based
Hazard Mapping &
Early Warning
System
Drought Monitoring
System
 SEASONAL
CLIMATE FORECAST

PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION

< 40% way below normal

41% - 80% below normal

81% - 120% near normal

> 120 % above normal

Enhancement of Monitoring System

SC.GARDEN
Quezon City

LEGEND:

MTSAT

NOAA CEBU

Chinese FY2
MODIS
WAFS

Meteorological Satellite Facility

Installation of
more automatic
weather stations
• Meteorological Buoys

• Wind Profilers
 Is climate change inevitable?

• We have pumped enough greenhouse gases

into the atmosphere to warm the planet for
many decades to come,

• The Earth’s natural system will be affected for

decades even if ghg emissions are reduced
NOW.
Are there projections for further
warming?

• There are projected increases of from

1.1°C to 6.4°C during the 21st century.

• For the next two decades a warming of

about 0.2°C per decade is projected
 • Conserve the
use of electricity
and water

•Put out lights that are

not in use or close the
television when
nobody is watching
According to studies abroad, 75% of electricity consumed at home
is stand by power to keep electronics running while they are off.
• Drive Less and Drive Smart

Less driving means fewer emissions. Besides saving

gasoline, walking and biking are great forms of exercise.
 Plant a Tree

A single tree will absorb approximately one ton of carbon

dioxide during its lifetime. During photosynthesis, trees and
other plants absorb carbon dioxide and give off oxygen.
we already have
an efficient rail
transit and you
may try it
• If you are in
a business
that uses
fuel, switch
to renewable
energy
source
• Strive to
have a more
efficient
production
process
• Use efficient
lighting and
efficient use
of electrical
equipment.
• Change a Light Bulb

• Replace regular light

bulbs with compact
fluorescent light (CFL)
bulbs.

• Replacing just one 60-

watt incandescent light
bulb with a CFL will save
you $30 over the life of
the bulb.

• CFLs also last 10 times

longer than incandescent
bulbs, and use two-thirds
less energy.
Reduce, Reuse, Recycle

• Recyclable products are

usually made out of things
that already have been used.
It usually takes less energy to
make recycled products than
to make new ones. The less
energy we use, the better.

• By recycling half of your

household waste, you can
save 2,400 pounds of carbon
dioxide annually.
 Promote Public Awareness

• Educate yourself, you family, your friends, your co-workers and

everyone you meet.
• The more people are aware of the issues the more
likely they are to make decisions that will be
constructive!
• Be active - Speak up in a positive way in your local
community and organization and help others to
commit to reducing greenhouse gas emmisions.