PROBABILITY AND NON By Anoosha Waheed

PROBABILITY OF SAMPLING
POPULATION VS SAMPLE
First, you need to understand the difference between a population and a sample, and
identify the target population of your research.
1. The population is the entire group that you want to draw conclusions about.
2. The sample is the specific group of individuals that you will collect data from.
The population can be defined in terms of geographical location, age, income, and
many other characteristics.
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•It can be very broad or quite narrow: maybe you want to make inferences about the
whole adult population of your country; maybe your research focuses on customers of a
certain company, patients with a specific health condition, or students in a single school.
•It is important to carefully define your target population according to the purpose and
practicalities of your project.
•If the population is very large, demographically mixed, and geographically dispersed, it
might be difficult to gain access to a representative sample.
Sampling frame:
The sampling frame is the actual list of individuals that the sample will be drawn from.
Ideally, it should include the entire target population (and nobody who is not part of that
population).
PROBABILITY SAMPLE VS
NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLE
There are two main methods of sampling:
1. Probability sampling and
2. non-probability sampling.
In probability sampling, respondents are randomly selected to take part in a survey or
other mode of research. For a sample to qualify as a probability sample, each person in
a population must have an equal chance of being selected for a study, and the researcher
must know the probability that an individual will be selected. Probability sampling is
the most common form of sampling for public opinion studies, election polling, and
other studies in which results will be applied to a wider population. This is the case
whether or not the wider population is very large, such as the population of an entire
country, or small, such as young females living in a specific town.
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Non-probability sampling is when a sample is created through a non-random
process. This could include a researcher sending a survey link to their friends or
stopping people on the street. This type of sampling would also include any targeted
research that intentionally samples from specific lists such as aid beneficiaries, or
participants in a specific training course.
Non-probability samples are often used during the exploratory stage of a research
project, and in qualitative research, which is more subjective than quantitative
research, but are also used for research with specific target populations in mind, such
as farmers that grow maize.
TYPES OF PROBABILITY
SAMPLING
Four of the common types of probability sampling are:
Simple Random Sample: The most basic form of probability sampling, in a
simple random sample each member of a population is assigned an identifier such as
a number, and those selected to be within the sample are picked at random, often
using an automated software program.
Example
You want to select a simple random sample of 100 employees of Company X. You
assign a number to every employee in the company database from 1 to 1000, and use
a random number generator to select 100 numbers.
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Stratified Random Sample: A stratified random sample is a step up from
complexity from a simple random sample. In this method, the population is divided
into sub-groups, such as male and female, and within those sub-groups a simple
random sample is performed. This enables a random sample that is representative of
a larger population and its specific makeup, such as a country’s population.
Example
The company has 800 female employees and 200 male employees. You want to
ensure that the sample reflects the gender balance of the company, so you sort the
population into two strata based on gender. Then you use random sampling on each
group, selecting 80 women and 20 men, which gives you a representative sample of
100 people.
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Cluster Sample: In cluster sampling, a population is divided into clusters which
are unique, yet represent a diverse group – for example, cities are often used as
clusters. From the list of clusters, a select number are randomly selected to take part
in a study.
Example
The company has offices in 10 cities across the country (all with roughly the same
number of employees in similar roles). You don’t have the capacity to travel to every
office to collect your data, so you use random sampling to select 3 offices – these are
your clusters.
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Systematic Sample: Using a systematic sample, participants are selected to be part
of a sample using a fixed interval. For example, if using an interval of 5, the sample
may consist of the fifth, 10th, 15th, and 20th, and so forth person on a list.
Example
All employees of the company are listed in alphabetical order. From the first 10
numbers, you randomly select a starting point: number 6. From number 6 onwards,
every 10th person on the list is selected (6, 16, 26, 36, and so on), and you end up
with a sample of 100 people.
TYPES OF NON-PROBABILITY
SAMPLE
Types of non-probability sample include:
Convenience Sample: As its name implies, this method uses people who are
convenient to access to complete a study. This could include friends, people walking
down a street, or those enrolled in a university course. Convenience sampling is
quick and easy, but will not yield results that can be applied to a broader population.
Example
You are researching opinions about student support services in your university, so
after each of your classes, you ask your fellow students to complete a survey on the
topic. This is a convenient way to gather data, but as you only surveyed students
taking the same classes as you at the same level, the sample is not representative of
all the students at your university.
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Snowball Sample: A snowball sample works by recruiting some sample members
who in turn recruit people they know to join a sample. This method works well for
reaching very specific populations who are likely to know others who meet the
selection criteria.
Example
You are researching experiences of homelessness in your city. Since there is no list of
all homeless people in the city, probability sampling isn’t possible. You meet one
person who agrees to participate in the research, and she puts you in contact with
other homeless people that she knows in the area.
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Quota Sample: In quota sampling, a population is divided into subgroups by
characteristics such as age or location and targets are set for the number of
respondents needed from each subgroup. The main difference between quota
sampling and stratified random sampling is that a random sampling technique is not
used in quota sampling;
For example
a researcher could conduct a convenience sample with specific quotas to ensure an
equal number of males and females are included, but this technique would still not
give every member of the population a chance of being selected and thus would not
be a probability sample.
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Purposive or Judgmental Sample: Using a purposive or judgmental sampling
technique, the sample selection is left up to the researcher and their knowledge of who will
fit the study criteria.
For example,
a purposive sample may include only PhD candidates in a specific subject matter. When
studying specific characteristics this selection method may be used, however as the
researcher can influence those who are selected to take place in the study, bias may be
introduced.
GeoPoll Sampling Methods: GeoPoll uses all of the sampling approaches described
above based on the needs and can use probability-based methods for our sample selection,
including stratified random sampling, to build nationally representative samples.
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NON-
PROBABILITY SAMPLING AND
PROBABILITY SAMPLING:
Non-probability sampling Probability sampling
Sample selection based on the subjective judgment The sample is selected at random.
of the researcher.
Not everyone has an equal chance to participate Everyone in the population has an equal chance of
getting selected.
The researcher does not consider sampling bias. Used when sampling bias has to be reduced.
Useful when the population has similar traits. Useful when the population is diverse.
The sample does not accurately represent the Used to create an accurate sample.
population.
Finding respondents is easy. Finding the right respondents is not easy.