Driving Forces of Real Estate Markets

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Lecture 1

Driving Forces of
Real Estate Markets
“Markets”
“Mechanism through which all goods and services are
voluntarily exchanged among different owners”

Through price, markets allocate scarce resources among


competing uses.

Real Estate Submarket: “Property within a certain price


and quality range and within specified geographic
areas that potential tenants or potential buyers would
consider as alternatives when looking at a Subject
Property”
Rental Rates and Prices
 Single-Family, Owner-Occupied Market
– General Price Trends
– Long-term benefits
 Corporate World (long-term tenancy)
– Minimizing long-term occupancy costs
– Rent
 Investment World
– Rental trends AND Price Trends
Significant Influences
on Rents and Prices
 Global Influences
– Exchange Rates, Recessions, National Disaster

 National Influences
– Tax Laws, Interest Rates

 Local Influences
– Employment Trends, Social Patterns, Changes in
Development
Supply & Demand

SUPPLY = SELLERS / LANDLORDS /


AVAILABLE REAL ESTATE

DEMAND = BUYERS / TENANTS


Demand Curve

Price/Rent
As price decreases,
quantity demanded
increases

Quantity of Space
Short-Run Supply Curve

Price/Rent
Reflects inelasticity in
a Short-Run market

Quantity of Space
Long-Run Supply Curve

Price/Rent
Reflects more
elasticity in a Long-
Run Market

Quantity of Space
Kinked Long-Run Supply Curve

Price/Rent
When price is above
Pe, new supply will
enter the market

Pe

Quantity of Space
Characteristics of
Real Estate Markets

 Durability
– Inelastic short-run supply
 “Lumpy and Large” Economic Unit
– Infrequent Purchase
– Highly-levered industry
– Large shifts in supply within localized markets
 Costly Information
– Data not easily available
– Costs of Market Studies and Appraisals
– Search Costs
Characteristics of
Real Estate Markets
 High Transaction Costs
– Title Insurance, Broker Fees, Lending Fees, Inspections/Due
Diligence, Surveys, Endorsements, etc.

 Fixed Location
– Allows Real Estate to be Substitutable

 Heterogeneity
– Creates greater costs for market information and searching

 Government Regulated
– Limits Real Estate Use
– Can help or deter real estate use and value
Lecture 1

Short-Run Market
Analysis
Seasonality:
Residential Home Sales
Average
Monthly Springtime housing sales
Sales tend to run 40% higher
than in December

120%

100%

80%

60%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lecture 1

Intermediate and
Long-Run Market
Analysis
Economic Base Analysis

Export Sector: Employment bringing revenues into a region (i.e.:


manufacturers of any product that serves more than the local
population and brings revenues into the local region from
outside)

Multiplier Effect: New workers in an economy creating/causing


even more jobs in different submarkets

Service Sector: Employment geared toward serving the local


population
Factors Affecting Growth

 Regional Demographic Trends


– Birth rates, death rates, size of households, income trends gender,
education, social patterns, etc.

 Regional Supply Constraints


– Physical: Lakes, topography, wetlands, etc.
– Social: Politics, local planning/zoning boards, growth goals, etc.

 Regional Transportation Costs


– Public Transit Systems (bus, rail, etc)
– Linkage
– Urban Sprawl
The Internet and Real Estate

 Location-Free Workers
 Work Space and Living Space accomodating
workers
 E-Commerce threat to the Retail Real Estate
Submarket
 Warehousing

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