Regression in Geoda: Briggs Henan University 2010 1
Regression in Geoda: Briggs Henan University 2010 1
Regression in Geoda: Briggs Henan University 2010 1
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Regression for Provinces: n = 35
• Next slide shows results from running a simple regression with
ChinaData.shp
Y = Illiteracy rate (ILLITERACY)
X = % of population urban (URBAN_POP_)
• All provinces included
• Note problems with
– Extreme value for Xizang/Tibet
– Zeros (0) for missing data on X variable
(Taiwan, Macau, Hong Kong, P’eng-hu)
• Solution: Reduced data set to 29 using ArcGIS
– (do not know how to do this in geoDA!)
Note: mean of
residuals is
always zero
Extreme
value
identified
by linking:
Xizang/Tibet
Briggs Henan University 2010 7
Partitioning the Variance on Y
Total Variation Residual Variation
Predicted by Regression
Illiteracy v. Urban Pop% OLS_Predict v. Urban Pop% OLS_Resid v. Urban Pop%
Y Ỹ (Y-Ỹ)
Y Y Y
Y Y Y
( Y i – Y) ( Ŷ i – Y) ( Y i – Ŷi )
2 2 2
Spatial autocorrelation
not a problem
Data for China Provinces 29:
excludes Xizang/Tibet, Macao, Hong Kong, Hainan, Taiwan, P'eng-hu
Briggs Henan University 2010 11
Multiple Regression Results n = 29
Illiteracy with % Pop Urban and Urban Income
Overall Results
significant
Not significant
Spatial Results
Not significant
12
Moran’s I = .0226
p = 0.5520
Not statistically significant
No Spatial autocorrelation
in residuals
Briggs Henan University 2010 13
Spatial Error Model Results
illustrative only: not needed
Spatial
error not
significant
Spatial Lag 0.387 157.05 -26.00 -3.128 0.006 0.00040 1.486 0.137 0.0720 0.340 0.7339
Robust LM
Error: for Lambda (error) 1.220 0.2693
For the spatial lag model, there is a distinction between the residual and the
prediction error. The latter is the difference between the observed value and
the predicted value that uses only exogenous variables, rather than treating
the spatial lag Wy as observed. (Documentation for 905i, page 53)
Urban pop %
*Spatial
Term OLS: for Moran's I
R is .92
N=29
Urban Income
Briggs Henan University 2010 22
Table >> Add Column then use Table >> Field Calculator
27
Regression coefficient
for % Urban Pop
--larger impact of urban
pop in south east China.
Observed: values
on the dependent
variable Y
Predicted values
and residuals are
based upon each
local regression
and are not the
same as those for a
global regression.
No statistical
significance results
provided
--statistical
significance tests in
GWR have been
severely criticized.