Impact of COVID-19 On The Indian Economy: Status: Confidential
Impact of COVID-19 On The Indian Economy: Status: Confidential
Impact of COVID-19 On The Indian Economy: Status: Confidential
Economy
status: confidential
IMPACT ON GDP
• GDP growth rate in 2019 – 5.6%.
• GDP Estimates for 2020
6 to 6.6% 5 to 5.5% 1 to 2%
Supply-Side Demand-Side
• Production shutdown • Consumer sentiment
• Supply chain disruption • Exports
• Imports
• Labour force
TOP COMPANIES IN THE AUTO SECTOR
Market Famous
Automotive Founded Sector
Share Products Current 52 Wk 52WK MarketCa
Prices High Down LOW Up Beta p PE
Three RE
Bajaj Auto 1926
Wheelers
63%
(Intracity)
2,675 3,315 19% 1,789 50% 111% 780,134 14.85
Premium
Eicher 1948 bikes (>250 90%
Royal
Motors CC)
Enfield
14,115 23,428 40% 12,460 13% 82% 389,694 18.46
Hero 1983
Two
37%
Extreme,
MotoCorp Wheelers Splendor
Maruti 1981
Passenger
50% Maruti
Suzuki cars
Tata Commercial
1945 44% Prima, Ace
Motors Vehicles
83 202 59% 64 31% 189% 287,843 0.00
COMPARISON BETWEEN NIFTY 50 & AUTO INDICES
100
80.4636485634783
75
74.1672271360227
50
25
Auto Nifty 50
FINANCIAL SERVICES- BABNKING and NBFCs
Gross non-food credit: INR 101 trillion (as on 31 January 2020)
• Break-up: Agriculture sector accounts – 13% Industry - 31.7% Services - 27.3%
Total deposits (SCBs): INR 132.1 trillion (as of 31 January 2020)
Credit deposit ratio (SCBs): 75.7% (2019)
Gross NPAs: 9.3% (as of Sep 2019)
Net NPAs: 3.7% (as of Sep 2019)
• Banks profitability
• Fall in transaction banking income
• Risk of defaults
• Increase in stressed assets
COMPARISON BETWEEN NIFTY 50 & FINANCIAL SERVICES
INDICES
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
b -2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 y-2 y-2 y-2 y-2
a a a a a a a a a a a p p p p p p p p p
Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe Fe M M M M M M M M M M M -A -A -A -A -A -A -A -A -A Ma Ma Ma Ma
1- 4- 6- 10- 12- 14- 18- 20- 25- 27- 2- 4- 6- 11- 13- 17- 19- 23- 25- 27- 31- 3 8 13 16 20 22 24 28 30 5- 7- 11- 13-
• Price variations
• Cash flow constraints
• Job Loss
• Lockdown/restrictions impact
REAL ESTATE & CONSTRUCTION
Sector contribution to GDP and employment: Real Estate - 9% and
employs around 51m people
• Poor Demand
• Consumer sentiment
• Work From Home
COMPARISON BETWEEN NIFTY 50 & REALTY INDICES
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
b -2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 y-2 y-2 y-2 y-2
a a a a a a a a a a a p p p p p p p p p
-Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M 3-A 8-A -A -A -A -A -A -A -A -Ma -Ma -Ma -Ma
1 4 6 10 12 14 18 20 25 27 2 4 6 11 13 17 19 23 25 27 31 13 16 20 22 24 28 30 5 7 11 13
Realty Nifty 50
PHARMACEUTICALS
• Market size and Employment: USD 55bn (2019 – 20)
and it employs 2.7 million people (Direct and Indirect)
Positive Negative
• Lockdown/restrictions • Price variations of key
impact raw materials
• Increased Exports • Production shutdown
• USFDA’s Quick • Labour force
Approval
TOP COMPANIES IN THE PHARMA SECTOR
Product Down Up
Categor Market 52wk High From 52wk from Market
Company Year y Share CMP ₹ ₹ High ₹ Low ₹ Lows Beta Cap ₹ PE
Chronic
Sun Pharma 1983
segments
452.20 504.80 10% 312.00 45% 50% 1,094,817 27.26
64 brands
Lupin Ltd 1968 of
Generics 841.95 906.00 7% 504.75 67% 46% 380,215 0.00
Diagnostic
Dr. Lal 1949 35%
s chain
PathLabs Ltd 1,575.05 1,830.00 14% 955.00 65% 52% 127,250 54.23
Hepatitis C
Natco 1981 58%
vaccine
Pharma Ltd 617.05 738.10 16% 402.55 53% 94% 109,050 22.36
COMPARISON BETWEEN NIFTY 50 & PHARMA INDICES
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
b -2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 y-2 y-2 y-2 y-2
a a a a a a a a a a a p p p p p p p p p
-Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M 3-A 8-A 3-A 6-A 0-A 2-A 4-A 8-A 0-A -Ma -Ma -Ma -Ma
1 4 6 10 12 14 18 20 25 27 2 4 6 11 13 17 19 23 25 27 31 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 11 13
Pharma Nifty 50
FMCG & RETAIL
• Sector contribution to GDP and employment: Retail – 10% of GDP and 8%
of employment.
• Major segments: Household and personal care (50%), healthcare segment
(31%), and food and beverages (19%).
• Major Applications are as follows: Household Use, Commercial Use,
Restaurant, Bar & Other
Positive Negative
• Surge in demands Panic • Risk of Losing Brand
buying Loyalty
• Profit Margin • Lack of Manpower:
TOP COMPANIES IN THE FMCG SECTOR
Current 52Wk
Company Year Category Market Share Brands Prices 52 Wk High Down Share Up Beta MarketCap PE
Colgate,
Colgate-Palmolive 1937 Oral care 55% Cibaca, Max
fresh
1,340 1,641 18% ,065.20 26% 44% 360,082 45.55
Zandu,
Emami Ltd 1974 Antiseptic cream 50-70%
Boroplus
191 383 50% 130.95 45% 105% 83,116 24.78
Mach3,
Gillette India Ltd ( 1984 Razor and blades 45%
Vector
4,817 8,200 41% 4,420.00 9% 28% 158,102 67.61
Dove,
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 1933 Shampoo, soaps 35-50%
Lifeboy, Lux
2,024 2,614 23% 659.05 22% 23% 4,688,951 64.29
Classic, Gold
ITC Ltd 1910 Cigarettes 80%
Flake
163 310 48% 134.60 21% 78% 2,033,135 14.05
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
b -2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 b-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 r-2 y-2 y-2 y-2 y-2
a a a a a a a a a a a p p p p p p p p p
-Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -Fe -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M -M 3-A 8-A 3-A 6-A 0-A 2-A 4-A 8-A 0-A -Ma -Ma -Ma -Ma
1 4 6 10 12 14 18 20 25 27 2 4 6 11 13 17 19 23 25 27 31 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 11 13
FMCG Nifty 50
What Measures should be taken?
IS IT THE RIGHT TIME TO BUY SHARES AMID FALLING
MARKET?
• So, is it the right time to buy shares amid falling market?
• Well, if you look at the history of Viruses and Stock Market, you will know
that as soon as the virus is contained, the stock market bounces back
quickly.
• Remember SARS virus in 2003? or even Ebola virus in 2014? Well, stock
market moved on from all these threats.
• Pigeon experiment:
• So, when will we move on from Corona Virus? Well, that is
something which is uncertain.
• All one needs to do is play cautiously. One shouldn’t
invest all his money but should invest like an SIP. And
should do their own research instead of listening to
someone specially the guys on TV.
THANK YOU
Any Questions
status: confidential