CHAPTER 5- DEMAND FORECASTING &

COLLABORATIVE PLANNING,
FORECASTING, & REPLENISHMENT

Principles of Supply Chain Management:

A Balanced Approach

Prepared by Daniel A. Glaser-Segura, PhD

 Learning Objectives

You should be able to:

– Explain the role of demand forecasting in a supply chain.
– Identify the components of a forecast
– Compare and contrast qualitative and quantitative forecasting
techniques
– Assess the accuracy of forecasts
– Explain collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment

Principles of Supply Chain Management: A Balanced Approach by Wisner, Leong, and Tan.
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 Chapter Five Outline

• Introduction
• Matching Supply and Demand
• Forecasting Techniques
– Qualitative Methods
– Quantitative Methods
• Forecast Accuracy
• Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment
• Software Solutions

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 Introduction
• Forecasting provides an estimate of future demand
• The goal is to minimize forecast error.
• Factors that influence demand and whether these factors will
continue to influence demand must be considered when forecasting.
• Improved forecasts benefit all trading partners in the supply chain.
• Better forecasts result in lower inventories, reduced stock-outs,
smoother production plans, reduced costs, and improved customer
service.

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 Matching Supply and Demand

• Suppliers must accurately forecast demand so they can

produce & deliver the right quantities at the right time at
the right cost.
• Suppliers must find ways to better match supply and
demand to achieve optimal levels of cost, quality, and
customer service to enable them to compete with other
supply chains.
• Problems that affect product & delivery will have
ramifications throughout the chain.

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 Forecasting Techniques

• Qualitative forecasting is based on opinion and

intuition.

• Quantitative forecasting uses mathematical models

and historical data to make forecasts.

• Time series models are the most frequently used

among all the forecasting models.

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.
Qualitative Forecasting Methods

Generally used when data are limited, unavailable, or not currently

relevant. Forecast depends on skill & experience of forecaster(s) &
available information.

Four qualitative models used are:

1. Jury of executive opinion
2. Delphi method
3. Sales force composite
4. Consumer survey

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

Quantitative Methods
• Time series forecasting- based on the assumption that the future
is an extension of the past. Historical data is used to predict future
demand.
• Associative forecasting- assumes that one or more factors
(independent variables) predict future demand.

It is generally recommended to use a combination of

quantitative and qualitative techniques.

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

Components of Time Series- Data should be plotted to

detect for the following components:

– Trend variations: either increasing or decreasing

– Cyclical variations: wavelike movements that are longer than a
year
– Seasonal variations: show peaks and valleys that repeat over a
consistent interval such as hours, days, weeks, months, years,
or seasons
– Random variations: due to unexpected or unpredictable events

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.
Time Series Forecasting Models
– Simple Moving Average Forecasting Model. Simple moving average
forecasting method uses historical data to generate a forecast. Works well
when demand is fairly stable over time.

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Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.
Time Series Forecasting Models
– Weighted Moving Average Forecasting Model- based on an n-period
weighted moving average, follows:

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Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.
Time Series Forecasting Models
– Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model- a weighted moving
average in which the forecast for the next period’s demand is the current
period’s forecast adjusted by a fraction of the difference between the
current period’s actual demand and its forecast. Only two data points
are needed.

Ft+1 = Ft+(At-Ft) or Ft+1 = At + (1 – ) Ft

Where
Ft+1 = forecast for Period t + 1
Ft = forecast for Period t
At = actual demand for Period t
 = a smoothing constant (0 ≤  ≤1).

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Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

Principles of Supply Chain Management: A Balanced Approach by Wisner, Leong, and Tan.
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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.
Time Series Forecasting Models
– Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing forecasting Model. a trend
component in the time series shows a systematic upward or downward
trend in the data over time.

Ft = At + (1 - )(F t+1 + Tt-1),

Tt = ß(Ft-Ft-1) + (1 – ß)Tt-1,
and the trend-adjusted forecast,
TAFt+m = Ft+ mTt
– where
Ft = exponentially smoothed average in Period t
At = actual demand in Period t
Tt = exponentially smoothed trend in Period t
 = smoothing constant (0 ≤  ≤ 1)
ß = smoothing constant for trend (0 ≤ ß ≤ 1)

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

Time Series Forecasting Models

– Linear Trend Forecasting Model. The trend can be estimated using
simple linear regression to fit a line to a time series.

Ŷ = b0 + b1x

– where
Ŷ = forecast or dependent variable
x = time variable
B0 = intercept of the line
b1 = slope of the line

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Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.

Associative Forecasting Models- One or several external variables

are identified that are related to demand
– Simple regression. Only one explanatory variable is used and is similar
to the previous trend model. The difference is that the x variable is no
longer a time but an explanatory variable.

Ŷ = b0 + b1x

– where
Ŷ = forecast or dependent variable
x = explanatory or independent variable
b0 = intercept of the line
b1 = slope of the line
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 Forecasting Techniques- Cont.
Associative Forecasting Models-
– Multiple regression. Where several explanatory variables are used to
make the forecast.

Ŷ = b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + . . . bkxk

– where
Ŷ = forecast or dependent variable
xk = kth explanatory or independent variable
b0 = intercept of the line
bk = regression coefficient of the independent variable xk

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 Forecast Accuracy
The formula for forecast error, defined as the difference between
actual quantity and the forecast, follows:
Forecast error, et = At - Ft
where
et = forecast error for Period t
At = actual demand for Period t
Ft = forecast for Period t
Several measures of forecasting accuracy follow:
– Mean absolute deviation (MAD)- a MAD of 0 indicates the
forecast exactly predicted demand.
– Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)- provides
prerspective of the true magnitude of the forecast error.
– Mean squared error (MSE)- analogous to variance, large
forecast errors are heavily penalized
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Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment
“Collaboration process whereby supply chain trading partners can
jointly plan key supply chain activities from production and delivery of
raw materials to production and delivery of final products to end
customers”
American Production and Inventory Control Society (APICS).

Objective of CPFR- optimize supply chain through improved demand

forecasts, with the right product delivered at right time to the right
location, with reduced inventories, avoidance of stock-outs, & improved
customer service.

Value of CPFR- broad and open exchange of forecasting information

to improve forecasting accuracy when both the buyer and seller
collaborate through joint knowledge of base sales, promotions, store
openings or closings, & new product introductions.

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Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
Replenishment
Most firms implement CPFR based on Voluntary Interindustry
Commerce Standards Process Model

Step 1: Develop Collaboration Arrangement

Step 2: Create Joint Business Plan
Step 3: Create Sales Forecast
Step 4: Identify Exceptions for Sales Forecast
Step 5: Resolve/Collaborate on Exception Items
Step 6: Create Order Forecast
Step 7: Identify Exceptions for Order Forecast
Step 8: Resolve/Collaborate on Exception Items
Step 9: Order Generation

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