Forecasting in Supply Cha.9427562.powerpoint
Forecasting in Supply Cha.9427562.powerpoint
Forecasting in Supply Cha.9427562.powerpoint
Resources
Forecasting – steps involved
Subjective views,
other information,
Historical data discussion, etc.
Accuracy
required
Forecast - Range
• The forecasts can be classified into the following
categories based on the time horizon considered
while the forecast is made:
▫ short-range (less than 1 year)
▫ medium-range (1 to 3 years)
▫ long-range (more than 3 years; generally long
range forecast into future which is beyond 5
years).
Type of forecasts
• Product demand forecast
• Technology forecast
• Weather forecast
Forecasting Methods
Forecasting
Qualitative or Quantitative or
judgmental statistical
Projective Causal
Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
• Judgmental forecasting
• Personal insight
• Panel Consensus
• Market survey
• Historical analogy
• Delphi method
Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
• Projective Techniques (Time series analysis):
▫ constant series
▫ series with trend
▫ seasonal series
Projective Forecasting
• Projective forecasting is intrinsic, as it examines
historical values for demand and uses these to
forecast the future.
• Projective forecasting ignores any external
influences and only looks at past values of
demand to suggest future values.
i. Simple averages
ii. Moving averages
iii. Exponential smoothing
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