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    Forecasting in Supply Cha.9427562.powerpoint

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    This document discusses forecasting in supply chains. It explains that forecasting is essential for supply chain planning and operations. However, demand forecasts become less accurate as information moves up the supply chain, causing overstocking further up. Accurate forecasting requires both qualitative and quantitative methods at different time horizons, from short-term quantitative projections to long-term qualitative judgments. Key quantitative methods include time series analysis, while qualitative approaches involve expert opinions. The goal is generating reliable forecasts to optimize supply chain performance.

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    Forecasting in Supply Cha.9427562.powerpoint

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    Bugtraq Widow
    15 views13 pages
    This document discusses forecasting in supply chains. It explains that forecasting is essential for supply chain planning and operations. However, demand forecasts become less accurate as information moves up the supply chain, causing overstocking further up. Accurate forecasting requires both qualitative and quantitative methods at different time horizons, from short-term quantitative projections to long-term qualitative judgments. Key quantitative methods include time series analysis, while qualitative approaches involve expert opinions. The goal is generating reliable forecasts to optimize supply chain performance.

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    This document discusses forecasting in supply chains. It explains that forecasting is essential for supply chain planning and operations. However, demand forecasts become less accurate as information moves up the supply chain, causing overstocking further up. Accurate forecasting requires both qualitative and quantitative methods at different time horizons, from short-term quantitative projections to long-term qualitative judgments. Key quantitative methods include time series analysis, while qualitative approaches involve expert opinions. The goal is generating reliable forecasts to optimize supply chain performance.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    15 views13 pages

    Forecasting in Supply Cha.9427562.powerpoint

    Uploaded by

    Bugtraq Widow
    This document discusses forecasting in supply chains. It explains that forecasting is essential for supply chain planning and operations. However, demand forecasts become less accurate as information moves up the supply chain, causing overstocking further up. Accurate forecasting requires both qualitative and quantitative methods at different time horizons, from short-term quantitative projections to long-term qualitative judgments. Key quantitative methods include time series analysis, while qualitative approaches involve expert opinions. The goal is generating reliable forecasts to optimize supply chain performance.

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    of 13

    04.

    Forecasting in Supply Chains


    Dr. Arunachalam Rajagopal
    Forecasting
    • Forecasting is one of the main functions of the
    supply chain management.
    • Customer demand is the basis for all the supply
    chain activities and the purpose for which it
    exists.
    • An accurate estimation of customer demand will
    enable better planning and smooth flow of
    materials through the supply chain.
    Bullwhip Effect
    • The customer demand forecast by the members of
    the supply chain is influenced by the availability of
    information.
    • The information on the actual customer demand
    gets distorted at every stage of the supply chain
    when it flows upstream to the supplier and to the
    supplier’s supplier.
    • This leads to higher inventory buildup at the
    upstream end of the supply chain and this
    phenomenon is called “Bullwhip Effect”.
    Position of forecasting in decisions
    Forecasts

    Objectives Decision makers Planned


    performance

    Actual performance Operations

    Resources
    Forecasting – steps involved
    Subjective views,
    other information,
    Historical data discussion, etc.

    Parameter Forecasting Initial Final


    values method forecasts forecasts

    Accuracy
    required
    Forecast - Range
    • The forecasts can be classified into the following
    categories based on the time horizon considered
    while the forecast is made:
    ▫ short-range (less than 1 year)
    ▫ medium-range (1 to 3 years)
    ▫ long-range (more than 3 years; generally long
    range forecast into future which is beyond 5
    years).
    Type of forecasts
    • Product demand forecast
    • Technology forecast
    • Weather forecast
    Forecasting Methods
    Forecasting

    Qualitative or Quantitative or
    judgmental statistical

    Projective Causal
    Qualitative Forecasting Techniques
    • Judgmental forecasting
    • Personal insight
    • Panel Consensus
    • Market survey
    • Historical analogy
    • Delphi method
    Quantitative Forecasting Techniques
    • Projective Techniques (Time series analysis):
    ▫ constant series
    ▫ series with trend
    ▫ seasonal series
    Projective Forecasting
    • Projective forecasting is intrinsic, as it examines
    historical values for demand and uses these to
    forecast the future.
    • Projective forecasting ignores any external
    influences and only looks at past values of
    demand to suggest future values.
    i. Simple averages
    ii. Moving averages
    iii. Exponential smoothing
    Interesting, right?
    This is just a sneak preview of the full presentation. We hope you like it!
    To see the rest of it, just click here to view it in full on PowerShow.com.
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    the entire presentation for free.

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