Math Villafuerte

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PROBABILITIES

AND NORMAL
DISTRIBUTIONS
Normal Distributions

So far we have dealt with random variables with a finite


number of possible values. For example; if X is the
number
of heads that will appear, when you flip a coin 5 times, X
can only take the values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
Some variables can take a continuous range of values, for
example a variable such as the height of 2 year old children
in the U.S. population or the lifetime of an electronic
component. For a continuous random variable X, the
analogue of a histogram is a continuous curve (the
probability density function) and it is our primary tool in
finding probabilities related to the variable. As with the
histogram for a random variable with a finite number of
values, the total area under the curve equals 1.
Normal Distributions
Probabilities correspond to areas under the curve and are
calculated over intervals rather than for specific values of
the random variable.
Although many types of probability density functions
commonly occur, we will restrict our attention to random
variables with Normal Distributions and the probabilities
will correspond to areas under a Normal Curve (or
normal density function).
This is the most important example of a continuous
random variable, because of something called the Central
Limit Theorem: given any random variable with any
distribution, the average (over many observations) of that
variable will (essentially) have a normal distribution. This
makes it possible, for example, to draw reliable information
from opinion polls.
Normal Distributions

The shape of a Normal curve depends on two parameters, µ


and σ, which correspond, respectively, to the mean and
standard deviation of the population for the associated
random variable. The graph below shows a selection of
Normal curves, for various values of µ and σ. The curve is
always bell shaped, and always centered at the mean µ.
Larger values of σ give a curve that is more spread out.
The area beneath the curve is always 1.
Properties of a Normal Curve

1. All Normal Curves have the same general bell shape.


2. The curve is symmetric with respect to a vertical line
that passes through the peak of the curve.
3. The curve is centered at the mean µ which coincides
with the median and the mode and is located at the
point beneath the peak of thePr curve.
4. The area under the curve is always 1.
5. The curve is completely determined by the mean µ and
the standard deviation σ. For the same mean, µ, a
smaller value of σ gives a taller and narrower curve,
whereas a larger value of σ gives a flatter curve.
6. The area under the curve to the right of the mean is
0.5 and the area under the curve to the left of the
mean is 0.5.
Properties of a Normal Curve

7. The empirical rule (68%, 95%, 99.7%) for mound


shaped data applies to variables with normal
distributions.
For example, approximately 95% of the measurements
will fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean, i.e.
within the interval (µ − 2σ, µ + 2σ).
8. If a random variable X associated to an experiment
has a normal probability distribution, the probability
that the value of X derived from a single trial of the
experiment is between two given values x1 and x2
(P(x1 6 X 6 x2)) is the area under the associated
normal curve between x1 and x2. For any given value
x1, P(X = x1) = 0, so
P(x1 6 X 6 x2) = P(x1 < X < x2)
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