Monsoon looms large for battles to be key in deciding Myanmar's fate
People | 17 May 2024In southeast Myanmar's Dawna Hills, ethnic rebels are fighting to hold back columns of reinforcements sent by the ruling junta to try to reclaim Myawaddy, a critical trading outpost on the Thai border.
What happens in the next few weeks in the scramble for Myawaddy and other strategic locations could determine the next phase of a bloody conflict that has dragged on for more than three years and ultimately dictate the fate of the junta.
Myanmar has been plunged into chaos since a coup in February 2021 led to the rise of an armed resistance that is now working alongside ethnic minority rebel groups, some of which have been fighting the military for decades.
Monsoon clouds, which begin rolling around early next month, particularly hampers the military by blunting the advantage of its air power, analysts said.
In the balance lie vital trade and military outposts such as Myawaddy, western Rakhine region where the Arakan Army has battered the junta and pockets of other resistance on the Chinese and Thai border.
"There are a couple of really important strategic objectives for the military in the coming weeks," said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the US National War College and a specialist on southeast Asia, referring to key ongoing battles, including those for Myawaddy and towns in Rakhine state.
Since October, the junta has faced a string of battlefield defeats and,with the economy hemorrhaging, is grappling with its biggest challenge since seizing power.
It has lost half of its 5,280 military positions - outposts, bases and headquarters - and 60 percent of territory it previously controlled in ethnic minority areas.
It could within the next six months lose control of all major borderlands with Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand.
Stretched thin across frontier territories slipping out of its grip, the junta may look to consolidate resources and prioritize key areas, a Thai official and a diplomat said.
But they added that although the junta was weakened and bleeding troops, it had retained the firepower to inflict significant damage and hold the central lowland region, home to the majority Bamar people.
Even hemmed in, its forces could mount a robust defense and prolong the conflict, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Bangkok-based regional political analyst.
"I think this could drag on," he said of the turmoil. But the junta's control was in the long run "untenable."
"The writing is on the wall," he said, pointing to the battlefield losses, emboldened resistance and lack of popular support.
After losing Myawaddy, the junta has mounted a counter-offensive to take back the town, a conduit for border trade of over US$1 billion (HK$7.8 billion) annually.
The Karen National Union, which dislodged the military from Myawaddy, is now battling to hold back the junta assault.
"More than 1,000 troops are moving forward to Myawaddy but KNLA joint forces are still trying hard to intercept, block and attack them," KNU spokesman Saw Taw Nee said, referring to its armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army. "Fierce fighting is taking place everyday."
Some 900 km to the west of Myawaddy, the junta is battling the Arakan Army that is pushing to gain control of Ann, a key regional military headquarter that is traversed by the 793-km Myanmar-China gas pipeline also traverses Ann.
Rains and low cloud cover will impact use of unguided munitions the air force typically uses, said Richard Horsey, the Crisis Group's senior Myanmar adviser. "It's also more dangerous for helicopters to transport troops, resupply cut-off bases, and provide fire support."
Recent defections have shown the junta's failure to resupply troops with food, water, ammunition and medical supplies has led to collapsing morale, says Abuza. The rains will hand an advantage to the resistance forces that have the momentum of victories but remain a diverse set of ethnic armies and grassroots resistance groups lacking critical coordination, analysts said.
"Facilitating strategic coordination among the plethora of groups will take time, but it will be a decisive factor in determining the outcome of the conflict in Myanmar," USIP's Ye Myo Hein said.
Kyaw Zaw, a spokesman for the shadow National Unity Government, said the junta currently only retained control over big cities in the heartland.
"Even there, they are getting threatened."
REUTERS
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