Broadening Wedge
📢 The Broadening FormationA technical chart pattern recognized by analysts, known as a broadening formation or Megaphone Pattern, is characterized by expanding price fluctuation. It is represented by two lines, one ascending and one descending, that diverge from each other. This pattern typically appears after a significant increase or decrease in security prices and is denoted by a sequence of higher and lower turning points. Normally this pattern is visible when the market is at its top or bottom. The greater the time frame is better the pattern will work.
🔹How to identify
Generally, the Broadening Formation consists of 5 different swings. But the swing has to have a minimum of two higher highs and two lower lows. A trend line is drawn by connecting point 1 and point 3 while points 2 and 4 are also joined together to draw a line.
These two lines create a shape that looks like a megaphone or inverted symmetric triangle. These swings’ highs and lows have to close above or below its pivot line and therefore they will create swing high as pivot high (R1, R2, and R3) and swing lows as pivot lows (S1, S2, and S3).
A breakout occurs when the line does not respect its support or resistance line and closes outside the shape after making the 5th swing.
🔹Volume
Volume plays an important role when it comes to the recognition of this pattern.
In the Broadening Top, volume usually peaks along with prices.
An increase in the volume, on the day of the pattern confirmation, is a strong indicator.
🔹Failures
This pattern also can be traded when it fails but is necessary to identify the failure perfectly.
A failure can be spotted when it fails to break the trend line (upper or lower as the case may be) after completing the 5th swing.
Suppose in a bull market condition, this pattern is formed and if it fails to break the upper trend line, traders go short when the price goes below 3rd swing high (R2).
Similar is the scenario, when the market is in a bear phase and it fails to break the lower trend line (S2), traders take a long position when the price closes above the 3rd swing high.
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Educational. How to trade a broadening wedge pattern? In this video:
* How to spot and draw a broadening wedge pattern.
* What constitutes an official broadening wedge pattern.
* Is the pattern bullish or bearish?
* What is the probability of breaking down vs. moving further up?
* How to measure target down and how to measure target up?
* Other notes to make on how to trade.
Broadening Wedges - Advanced AnalysisIn our previous post in this series about chart patterns we described the characteristics, rules, and causes of triangle patterns (if you haven't seen it, see the related idea below).
In this post, we perform an advanced analysis of broadening wedges patterns. We provide a description of each pattern and its implications. We also review the literature in order to find their deterministic cause.
1. Broadening Wedges
Broadening wedges are characterized by price variations laying within one support and resistance, both having the same direction and broadening over time. As such the apex of the support/resistance in a broadening wedge is located to the left.
Broadening wedges must not be confused with other broadening formations. While they all have a broadening characteristic they can have different identification rules
Broadening wedges are classified depending on the direction of the support/resistance.
1.1 Ascending
Ascending broadening wedges mostly occur during uptrends with rising local maxima (higher highs) forming an upward sloping resistance and raising local minimas (higher lows) forming an upward slopping support. The slope of both the support & the resistance should be significantly different from 0.
Bulkowski suggests the price needs to test the support and resistance three times each. Additionally, the resistance should be steeper than the support.
Volume tends to increase during the formation of such pattern.
Ascending broadening wedges have a bearish bias with breakouts mostly occurring downward. Downward breakouts are often followed by a decrease in price.
Example of an ascending broadening wedge followed by a downward breakout on SOLUSDT 4h.
1.2 Descending
Descending broadening wedges mostly occur during downtrends with declining local maxima (lower highs) forming a downward sloping resistance and declining local minimas (lower lows) forming a downward slopping support. The slope of both the support & the resistance should be significantly different from 0.
Similarly to ascending broadening wedges, Bulkowski suggests the price needs to test the support and resistance three times each. Additionally, the support should be steeper than the resistance.
Volume tends to increase during the formation of such pattern.
Descending broadening wedges have a bullish bias with breakouts mostly occurring upward. Upward breakouts are often followed by an increase in price.
Example of an ascending broadening wedge followed by a downward breakout on AVAX 1h.
2. Partial Rises/Declines
Partial rises/declines are phenomena described by Bulkowski in broadening formations and are described as being common. Partial rises/declines often indicate the direction of a breakout.
Partial rises commonly occur in broadening ascending wedges, price bounces off the support, moves towards the resistance without reaching it, and go back to the support. We can expect a potential downward breakout after that. Note that a partial rise always starts from the test of the support.
Partial declines commonly occur in broadening descending wedges. The price bounces off the resistance, moves towards the support without reaching it, and then goes back to the resistance where we can expect a potential breakout upwards. Note that a partial decline always starts from the test of the resistance.
Partial rises and declines can offer a better price to buy/sell instead of waiting for a breakout.
3. Measure Rule
The measure rule for broadening wedges allows us to determine the position of a take-profit/stop-loss.
For a broadening ascending wedge the measure rule would place our take profit at the lowest low inside the formation. Selling directly after a partial rise would allow for higher profits.
For a broadening descending wedge the measure rule would place our take profit at the highest high inside the formation. Selling directly after a partial decline would allow for higher profits.
Certain analysts close trades caused by partial rises/declines when the price reaches the support/resistance of the wedge, opening a new position in the case of a breakout while using the metric rule for setting their take profit.
4. Causes Of Broadening Wedges
Bulkowski offers a description of the causes of broadening wedges in the market in terms of the market participant's behavior.
The cause of an ascending broadening wedge is a surge from an initial buying impulse, driving the price higher. Momentum traders follow the initial impulse further pushing prices up.
Contrarian traders judge the price to be trading above its intrinsic value, selling and thus creating a decline in prices. However, before the decline reaches the previously established low, certain market participants buy again. These participants can be composed of initial buyers, accumulating positions, or late traders seeing the potential to buy at a better price. This allows the creation of a new impulse, with only a divergence left.
This scenario eventually repeats itself with increased volume, causing impulses and retracements of higher magnitude reinforcing a positive feedback loop until the price is judged overbought even by initial buyers.
A broadening falling wedge follows the same scenario structure but with sellers instead of buyers.
5. Other Observations
The amplitude of the cyclical variations within a broadening wedge increases over time, thus potentially highlighting volatility clusters in higher time-frames.
Another interesting observation that can be made is that prices within a broadening wedge are subject to heteroscedasticity (variability is not constant, it increases inside a broadening wedge), while prices inside a channel are homoscedastic (variability remains constant). This concept is inherent to regression analysis.
6. Conclusion
In this post we described broadening wedge patterns in depth. We have highlighted partial rises/declines as well as how the measure rule applies to such patterns. We then focused on showing how market participants act during the formation of broadening wedges.
Note that unlike triangles patterns we did not find a significant amount of studies mentioning such patterns, nor any agent models developed to describe their occurrence.
7. References
(1) Bulkowski, T. N. (2021). Encyclopedia of chart patterns. John Wiley & Sons.
BURL, Burlington Stores Inc. - Stop Loss on Broadening TriangleNYSE:BURL
It is never a question of being right or wrong, but rather of being too early and being thrown out of the market before the asset's actual direction.
What we need is an event that allows us to systematically decide to enter Long or Short, in our case the patterns of technical analysis.
We are trend-followers and we gain from price movement, so we could call ourselves "Price Change Traders".
In this case the price had triggered our Stop Loss.
Stay Tuned!
What is an ascending broadening wedge? (Educational, Example) An ascending broadening wedge is a bearish chart pattern (said to be a reversal pattern). It is formed by two diverging bullish lines.
An ascending broadening wedge is confirmed/valid if it has good oscillation between the two upward lines. The upper line is the resistance line; the lower line is the support line.
Each of these lines must have been touched at least twice to validate the pattern.
NB: a line is said to be "valid" if the price line touches the support or resistance at least 3 times.
This implies that the ascending broadening wedge pattern is considered valid if the price touches the support line at least 3 times and the resistance line twice (or the support line at least twice and the resistance line 3 times).
An ascending broadening wedge does not mark the exhaustion of the buying current, but the sellers’ ambition to take control. The divergence of the two lines in the same direction (increase in price magnitude) informs us that the price continues to increase with movements that are increasingly high in magnitude. The buyers manage to make the price rebound on the support line but lose control after the formation of a new highest point. The lowest point reached during the first correction on the ascending broadening wedge’s support line forms the support. A second wave of increase then occurs with more magnitude, signalling the loss of buyers' control after a new highest point. A third wave is formed afterwards but buyers lose control again after the formation of new highest points.
During the formation of an ascending broadening wedge, volumes do not behave in any particular way but they increase strongly when the support line breaks.
Right Angled Broadening WedgesIdentifying a Right-Angled Broadening Wedge
Right-Angled Broadening Wedges come in two varieties, ascending and descending. They consist of a horizontal trend line and a sloping trendline.
The Ascending Right-Angled Broadening Wedges (ARABW) have an ascending trendline above the horizontal trendline with price action in between.
The Descending Right-Angled Broadening Wedges (DRABW) have a descending trendline below the horizontal trend line with price action in between.
With both versions price broadens over time.
Prices should be seen to touch both trendlines twice. Two touches to form the horizontal trendline and two touches to form the sloping trendline.
Breakouts from these two patterns often follows a partial rise or a partial decline.
What is a partial rise or decline?
After the two trendlines have been formed the pattern can be identified. When price rises off the lower trendline, and doesn’t reach the upper trendline before falling back to the lower trendline. This is a partial rise.
When price falls off the upper trendline, and doesn’t reach the lower trendline before rising back to the upper trendline. This is a partial decline.
More often than not a breakout from the pattern will follow.
The partial rise or decline never happens after the breakout.