The National Hurricane Center on Sunday issued its first tropical weather outlook for a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.Hurricane season officially begins on June 1. The system is considered to have a very low chance of strengthening into a named tropical storm or hurricane before it moves over land, according to the NHC's latest forecast released Monday morning."Surface observations and radar data indicate that the area of low pressure previously over the north-central Gulf of Mexico has now moved inland about 15 miles west-northwest of Pensacola, Florida," the update reads.The system continues to produce disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds across the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama. The system will likely dump heavy rain and blow gusty winds from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle spanning the next 24 to 36 hours. Three to four inches of rain are expected to fall along the Gulf Coast through Monday night. “Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to fire this afternoon across the region,” the National Weather Service New Orleans said in a Facebook post. “Expect heavy downpours with the stronger activity.”Weather experts predict an active hurricane season this year.Related: Hurricane season beginning early? Why experts are eyeing mid-May as the new start dateRelated: FEMA warns of 'rapidly intensifying' hurricanes at Orlando conferenceRelated: National Hurricane Conference underway in Orlando ahead of active seasonAt an April storm conference in Orlando, FEMA’s leader warned about the intensifying hurricane seasons because she said people will have less time to prepare.“These storms are getting worse,” she said.While the storm experts at the conference are tasked with preparing early, they said people should too be treating every year as if they are going to get hit by a hurricane.“Just because it didn’t happen in the last couple years doesn’t mean it can’t happen this year,” Graham said. “The complacency part of it worries me.”