2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary
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 Election results by county.
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The 2016 South Carolina Republican presidential primary took place on February 20 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Republican Party's third nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
The Democratic Party held its Nevada caucuses on the same day, while their South Carolina primary would only take place a week later on February 27.
The states delegates are allocated in this way: 29 delegates are awarded to the winner of the primary; 3 delegates are awarded to the winner of each of the seven congressional districts.[1]
Following a poor result in the primary, Jeb Bush announced the suspension of his campaign.[2]
Forums and debates
[edit]January 9, 2016 – Columbia, South Carolina The Kemp Forum was held in the Columbia Metropolitan Convention Center by the Jack Kemp Foundation. Bush, Carson, Christie, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, and Rubio attended. The forum was moderated by Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senator Tim Scott.[3][4]
January 14, 2016 – North Charleston, South Carolina
| Candidate | Airtime[5] | Polls |
|---|---|---|
| Trump | 17:12 | 34.5% |
| Cruz | 17:52 | 19.3% |
| Rubio | 14:19 | 11.8% |
| Carson | 8:26 | 9.0% |
| Christie | 14:25 | 3.5% |
| Bush | 12:36 | 4.8% |
| Kasich | 12:26 | 2.3% |
| Candidate | Airtime | Polls |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorina | 12:06 | 2.8% |
| Paul | N/A | 2.3% |
| Huckabee | 13:00 | 1.8% |
| Santorum | 12:18 | 0.0% |
On December 8, 2015, it was announced that Fox Business Network would host an additional debate two days after the State of the Union address.[6] The debate was held in the North Charleston Coliseum in North Charleston, South Carolina. The anchor and managing editor of Business News, Neil Cavuto, and anchor and global markets editor, Maria Bartiromo, reprised their roles as moderators for the prime-time debate, which began at 9 p.m. EST. The earlier debate, which started at 6 p.m. EST, was again moderated by anchors Trish Regan and Sandra Smith.[7][8]
On December 22, 2015, Fox Business Network announced that in order to qualify for the prime-time debate, candidates had to either: place in the top six nationally, based on an average of the five most recent national polls recognized by FOX News; place in the top five in Iowa, based on an average of the five most recent Iowa state polls recognized by FOX News; or place in the top five in New Hampshire, based on an average of the five most recent New Hampshire state polls recognized by FOX News. In order to qualify for the first debate, candidates must have registered at least one percent in one of the five most recent national polls.[9]
On January 11, 2016, seven candidates were revealed to have been invited to the prime-time debate: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump. The participants were introduced in order of their poll rankings at the debate.
Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum participated in the undercard debate. Rand Paul was also invited to the undercard debate, but said, "I won't participate in anything that's not first tier because we have a first tier campaign."[10][11] The candidates were introduced in order of their poll rankings. The first question was to assess the economy. The next questions asked Fiorina about the role of the US in the world, Santorum about the Iran deal, and Huckabee about the solution to Afghanistan's problems.
February 13, 2016 – Greenville, South Carolina The ninth debate, and second debate in the month of February, was held in another early primary state of South Carolina, and aired on CBS News. The debate was moderated by John Dickerson in the Peace Center, began at 9 p.m. ET and lasted for 90 minutes.[12]
Endorsements
[edit]Statewide officials
- Molly Spearman, Superintendent of Education (2015-Present)[13]
- Hugh Weathers, Agriculture Commissioner (2004-Present)[14]
U.S. Senators
- Lindsey Graham, U.S. Senator (2003-Present)[15]
State Senators
- Ross Turner, State Senator from the 8th district (2013-Present)[16]
- Katrina Shealy, State Senator from the 23rd district (2013-Present)[17]
- Paul Thurmond, State Senator from the 41st district (2009-Present)[18]
State Representatives
- Samuel Rivers Jr., State Representative from the 15th district (2013-Present)[19]
- Bruce W. Bannister, State Representative from the 24th district (2006-Present)[20]
- Dennis Moss, State Representative from the 29th district (2007-Present)[21]
- Ralph Norman, State Representative from the 48th district (2009-Present)[22]
- Rick Quinn Jr., State Representative from the 69th district (2010-Present)[23]
- Kirkman Finlay III, State Representative from the 75th district (2012-Present)[24]
U.S. Representatives
- Mark Sanford, SC-01 (2013–Present)[25]
- Jeff Duncan, SC-03 (2011–Present)[26]
State Senators
- Lee Bright, State Senator from the 12th district (2009-Present)[27]
State Representatives
- Mike Burns, State Representative from the 17th district (2013-Present)[28]
- Wendy Nanney, State Representative from the 22nd district (2009-Present)[29]
- Garry R. Smith, State Representative from the 27th district (2003-Present)[30]
- Bill Chumley, State Representative from the 35th district (2011-Present)[31]
State Senators
- Greg Gregory, State Senator from the 16th district (2011-Present)[32]
- Ronnie Cromer, State Senator from the 18th district (2003-Present)[33]
- Raymond E. Cleary III, State Senator from the 34th district (2005-Present)[34]
- Paul G. Campbell Jr., State Senator from the 44th district (2007-Present)[35]
State Representatives
- Gary Clary, State Representative from the 3rd district (2015-Present)[36]
- Phyllis Henderson, State Representative from the 21st district (2010-Present)[37]
- Heather Ammons Crawford, State Representative from the 68th district (2012-Present)[38]
- Chip Limehouse, State Representative from the 110th district (2015-Present)[39]
- Jeff Bradley, State Representative from the 123rd district (2015-Present)[40]
Newspapers
- The State (Columbia)[41]
- The Post and Courier (Charleston)[42]
Statewide officials
- Nikki Haley, Governor (2011-Present)[43]
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
- Joe Wilson, SC-02 (2001–Present)[45]
- Trey Gowdy, SC-04 (2011–Present)[46]
State Senators
- Larry Grooms, State Senator from the 37th district (1997-Present)[47]
State Representatives
- Neal Collins, State Representative from the 5th district (2015-Present)[48]
- Dan Hamilton, State Representative from the 20th district (2009-Present)[49]
- Todd Atwater, State Representative from the 87th district (2011-Present)[50]
Mayors
- Knox H. White, Greenville Mayor (1995-Present)[51]
Statewide officials
- Henry McMaster, Lieutenant Governor (2015-Present)[52]
State Representatives
- Mike Ryhal, State Representative from the 56th district (2013-Present)[53]
- James H. Merrill, State Representative from the 99th district (2001-Present)[54]
Withdrawn candidates
[edit]State Representatives
- Greg Delleney, State Representative from the 43rd district (2003-Present)[55]
U.S. Representatives
- Mick Mulvaney, SC-05 (2011–Present)[56]
State Senators
- Tom Davis, State Senator from the 46th district (2009-Present)[57]
State Representatives
- Michael Pitts, State Representative from the 14th district (2003-Present)[58]
- Peter M. McCoy Jr., State Representative from the 115th district (2011-Present)[59]
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll
aggregation |
Dates
administered |
Dates
updated |
Marco Rubio Republican |
Donald Trump Republican |
Ted Cruz Republican |
Jeb Bush Republican |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[60] | until February 20, 2016 | February 20, 2016 | 18.8% | 31.8% | 18.5% | 10.7% | Trump +13.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight[61] | until February 20, 2016 | February 20, 2016 | 19.8% | 30.5% | 19.5% | 11.4% | Trump +10.7 |
| Poll source | Date | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary results[62] | February 20, 2016 | Donald Trump32.51% | Marco Rubio22.48% | Ted Cruz22.33% | Jeb Bush 7.84%, John Kasich 7.61%, Ben Carson 7.23% |
| Opinion Savvy/
Augusta Chronicle[63] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780 |
February 18–19, 2016 | Donald Trump 26.9% |
Marco Rubio 24.1% |
Ted Cruz
18.8% |
Jeb Bush 10.6%, Ben Carson 8.2%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 3.9% |
| South Carolina
House GOP[64] Margin of error: ± 2.0% Sample size: 3500 |
February 18, 2016 | Donald Trump 33.51% |
Ted Cruz
18.96% |
Marco Rubio
18.07% |
Jeb Bush 11.56%, John Kasich 8.49%, Ben Carson 5.22%, Undecided 4.19% |
| National Research[65]
Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 500 |
February 17–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Refused 2%, Undecided 7% |
| ARG[66]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401 |
February 17–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 34% |
Marco Rubio
22% |
John Kasich
14% |
Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3% |
| Emerson College[67]
Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 418 |
February 16–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6% |
| Clemson University[68]
Margin of error: ± 3.0% Sample size: 650 |
February 14–18, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Ben Carson 6%, Undecided 13% |
| ARG[69]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 |
February 16–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% |
Marco Rubio
20% |
John Kasich
15% |
Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 7% |
| Harper Polling[70]
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 599 |
February 16–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 29% |
Ted Cruz
17% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 14%, John Kasich 13%, Ben Carson 8%, Undecided 5% |
| NBC News/Wall Street
Journal/Marist College[71] Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 722 |
February 15–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 28% |
Ted Cruz
23% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 9%, Undecided 5% |
| Fox News[72]
Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 759 |
February 15–17, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 6%, Other 1%, Undecided 8% |
| Emerson College[73]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 315 |
February 15–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% |
Ted Cruz
20% |
Marco Rubio
19% |
John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 5%, Other 1%, Undecided 4% |
| ARG[74]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 |
February 14–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 33% |
Marco Rubio
16% |
Ted Cruz
14% |
John Kasich 14%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 8% |
| Monmouth University[75]
Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400 |
February 14–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ted Cruz
19% |
Marco Rubio
17% |
John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 5% |
| Bloomberg/Selzer[76]
Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 502 |
February 13–16, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ted Cruz
17% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
Jeb Bush 13%, Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 7%, Undecided 3% |
| Public Policy Polling[77]
Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 897 |
February 14–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ted Cruz
18% |
Marco Rubio
18% |
John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 7%, Undecided 6% |
| South Carolina
House GOP[78] Margin of error: ± 2.4% Sample size: 1700 |
February 15, 2016 | Donald Trump 33.57% |
Ted Cruz
15.54% |
Marco Rubio
14.83% |
Jeb Bush 14.54%, John Kasich 7.98%, Ben Carson 6.55%, Undecided 7.03% |
| CNN/ORC[79]
Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 404 |
February 10–15, 2016 | Donald Trump 38% |
Ted Cruz
22% |
Marco Rubio
14% |
Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 6%, John Kasich 4%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided 1%, No Opinion 3% |
| ARG[80]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400 |
February 12–13, 2016 | Donald Trump 35% |
John Kasich
15% |
Marco Rubio
14% |
Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ben Carson 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 10% |
| South Carolina
House GOP[81] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 1200 |
February 11–12, 2016 | Donald Trump 34.5% |
Ted Cruz
15.5% |
Jeb Bush
13% |
Marco Rubio 12.5%, John Kasich 8.5%, Ben Carson 5%, Undecided 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov[82]
Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 744 |
February 10–12, 2016 | Donald Trump 42% |
Ted Cruz
20% |
Marco Rubio
15% |
John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ben Carson 6%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1% |
| Opinion Savvy/
Augusta Chronicle[83] Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 779 |
February 10–11, 2016 | Donald Trump 36.3% |
Ted Cruz
19.6% |
Marco Rubio
14.6% |
Jeb Bush 10.9%, John Kasich 8.7%, Ben Carson 4.7%, Undecided 5.2% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[84]
Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 718 |
January 17–23, 2016 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ted Cruz
20% |
Marco Rubio
14% |
Jeb Bush 9%, Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 0%, Undecided 6% |
| CBS/YouGov[85]
Margin of error: ± 5.3% Sample size: 804 |
January 18–21, 2016 | Donald Trump 40% |
Ted Cruz
21% |
Marco Rubio
13% |
Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0% |
| Morris News/Opinion Savvy[86]
Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 683 |
January 15, 2016 | Donald Trump 32% |
Ted Cruz
18% |
Jeb Bush
13% |
Marco Rubio 11%, Ben Carson 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 3% |
| Associated Industries of Florida[87]
Margin of error: ± 3.9% Sample size: 600 |
December 16–17, 2015 | Donald Trump 27% |
Ted Cruz 27% |
Marco Rubio
12% |
Ben Carson 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Others 5%, Undecided 11% |
| CBS News/YouGov[88]
Margin of error: ± 5% Sample size: 1469 |
December 14–17, 2015 | Donald Trump 38% |
Ted Cruz
23% |
Marco Rubio
12% |
Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 1% |
| Opinion Savvy/Augusta Chronicle[89]
Margin of error: ± 4.2% Sample size: 536 |
December 16, 2015 | Donald Trump 28.3% |
Ted Cruz
21.1% |
Marco Rubio
11.6% |
Jeb Bush 9.6%, Ben Carson 9.5%, Chris Christie 5.5%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Rand Paul 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 2.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.9%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.2%, Undecided 1.3% |
| Winthrop University[90]
Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 828 |
November 30 – December 7, 2015 | Donald Trump 24% |
Ted Cruz
16% |
Ben Carson
14% |
Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0% |
| Fox News[91]
Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 437 |
December 5–8, 2015 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ben Carson
15% |
Marco Rubio/Ted Cruz
14% |
Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, None of the Above 1%, Don't Know 5% |
| CBS News/YouGov[92]
Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: ? |
November 15–19, 2015 | Donald Trump 35% |
Ben Carson
19% |
Marco Rubio
16% |
Ted Cruz 13%, Jeb Bush 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0% |
| Public Policy Polling[93]
Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 787 |
November 7–8, 2015 | Donald Trump 25% |
Ben Carson
21% |
Ted Cruz
15% |
Marco Rubio 13%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, John Kasich 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3% |
| CBS News/YouGov[94]
Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 843 |
October 15–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 40% |
Ben Carson
23% |
Ted Cruz
8% |
Marco Rubio 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No Preference 5% |
| Clemson-Palmetto[95]
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 600 |
October 13–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 23% |
Ben Carson 19% |
Ted Cruz
8% |
Carly Fiorina 6%, Jeb Bush 7%, Marco Rubio 5%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, undecided/DK 15% |
| CNN/ORC[96]
Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 521 |
October 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ben Carson
18% |
Marco Rubio
9% |
Carly Fiorina 7%, Jeb Bush 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore *%, George Pataki *% Bobby Jindal *%, None 1%, No opinion 4% |
| Gravis Marketing[97]
Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 762 |
October 1, 2015 | Donald Trump 29.1% |
Ben Carson
16.4% |
Carly Fiorina
11.1% |
Ted Cruz 8.1%, Marco Rubio 8%, Jeb Bush 5.9%, John Kasich 3.5%, Mike Huckabee 3.1%, Lindsey Graham 1.5%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rand Paul 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, George Pataki 0.3% Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Unsure 9.9% |
| CBS News/YouGov[98]
Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 1002 |
September 3–10, 2015 | Donald Trump 36% |
Ben Carson
21% |
Ted Cruz
6% |
Lindsey Graham 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[99]
Margin of error: ± 3.6% Sample size: 764 |
September 3–6, 2015 | Donald Trump 37% |
Ben Carson
21% |
Ted Cruz
6% |
Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Lindsey Graham 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Scott Walker 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0% |
| Monmouth University[100]
Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 453 |
August 20–23, 2015 | Donald Trump 30% |
Ben Carson
15% |
Jeb Bush
9% |
Carly Fiorina 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Lindsey Graham 4%, Scott Walker 4%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, George Pataki 0%, Bobby Jindal 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 11% |
| Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage[101]
Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 509 |
August 3, 2015 | Donald Trump 31.3% |
Jeb Bush
13.9% |
Ben Carson
9.9% |
Mike Huckabee 8.5%, Lindsey Graham 6.5%, Scott Walker 5.8%, Ted Cruz 4.3%, Chris Christie 4.1%, John Kasich 3.1%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.7%, Bobby Jindal 0.7%, Rick Perry 0.6%, Rick Santorum 0.1%, George Pataki 0%, Someone else 3.1%, Undecided 2.5% |
| Gravis Marketing[102]
Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 609 |
July 29–30, 2015 | Donald Trump 34% |
Ben Carson
10.9% |
Jeb Bush
10.5% |
Scott Walker 10.3%, Marco Rubio 6%, Mike Huckabee 5.5%, Lindsey Graham 4.9%, Ted Cruz 3.4%, John Kasich 3.3%, Chris Christie 2.5%, Rick Perry 2.5%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, Rand Paul 1%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, George Pataki 0.7% |
| Morning Consult[103]
Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 389 |
May 31 – June 8, 2015 | Lindsey Graham 14% |
Ben Carson 12% |
Jeb Bush 11% |
Scott Walker 10%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Donald Trump 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Don't know/No Opinion/Refused 16%, Someone else 2% |
| Winthrop University[104]
Margin of error: ± 3.2% Sample size: 956 |
April 4–12, 2015 | Scott Walker 13.6% |
Jeb Bush 12.7% |
Ted Cruz
8.1% |
Lindsey Graham 7.6%, Rand Paul 6.2%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.9%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 1.9%, Donald Trump 1.9%, Bobby Jindal 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.3%, John Bolton 0.2%, Other 1.4%, Undecided 25.1% |
| Gravis Marketing[105]
Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 1,371 |
March 26–27, 2015 | Scott Walker 17% |
Jeb Bush 16% |
Ted Cruz
13% |
Lindsey Graham 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rand Paul 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Undecided 18% |
| Gravis Marketing[106]
Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 792 |
February 24–25, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% |
Scott Walker 17% |
Lindsey Graham
12% |
Mike Huckabee 10%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Ted Cruz 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[107]
Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 525 |
February 12–15, 2015 | Jeb Bush 19% |
Scott Walker 18% |
Ben Carson
13% |
Lindsey Graham 13%, Mike Huckabee 12%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Other/Undecided 6% |
| NBC News/Marist[108]
Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 450 |
February 3–10, 2015 | Lindsey Graham 17% |
Jeb Bush 15% |
Scott Walker
12% |
Ben Carson 10%, Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Ted Cruz 1%, Undecided 11% |
| Gravis Marketing[109]
Margin of error: ± 3% Sample size: 831 |
January 21–22, 2015 | Mitt Romney 20% |
Jeb Bush
16% |
Scott Walker
9% |
Ted Cruz 8%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Rand Paul 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 12% |
| Jeb Bush 18% |
Mike Huckabee
11% |
Scott Walker
11% |
Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Rick Perry 5%, Rick Santorum 4%, Undecided 17% | ||
| Clemson University[110]
Margin of error: ± 6% Sample size: 400 |
May 22–29, 2014 | Jeb Bush 22% |
Chris Christie
10% |
Ted Cruz
9% |
Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Undecided/Don't know 48% |
| Gravis Marketing[111]
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 735 |
March 6–7, 2014 | Jeb Bush 22% |
Mike Huckabee 19% |
Chris Christie
12% |
Ted Cruz 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 19% |
| Gravis Marketing[112]
Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 601 |
November 30 – December 2, 2013 | Chris Christie 16.6% |
Jeb Bush 16% |
Mike Huckabee 15.8% |
Ted Cruz 11.1%, Rand Paul 9.7%, Marco Rubio 7.2%, Rick Santorum 2.8%, Scott Walker 2.3%, Undecided 18.5% |
| Harper Polling[113]
Margin of error: ± 5.03% Sample size: 379 |
October 27–28, 2013 | Chris Christie 19% |
Ted Cruz 17% |
Rand Paul
13% |
Marco Rubio 12%, Paul Ryan 12%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Not sure 21% |
Results
[edit]Primary date: February 20, 2016
District conventions: April 2016
State convention: May 7, 2016
National delegates: 50
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 240,882 | 32.51% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Marco Rubio | 166,565 | 22.48% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 165,417 | 22.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush | 58,056 | 7.84% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 56,410 | 7.61% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson | 53,551 | 7.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| George Pataki (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 740,881 | 100.00% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Exit Polls
[edit]| 2016 South Carolina Republican Primary by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[114] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Cruz | Trump | Rubio | Kasich | Bush | % of
total vote |
| Total vote | 22.3 | 33.5 | 22.5 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 93% |
| Gender | ||||||
| Men | 22 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 7 | 51% |
| Women | 22 | 29 | 23 | 9 | 9 | 49% |
| Race | ||||||
| White | 22 | 33 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 96% |
| Education and Race | ||||||
| White College Graduate | 19 | 25 | 27 | 11 | 9 | 52% |
| White Non-college | 24 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 45% |
| Age | ||||||
| 17–44 years old | 26 | 26 | 25 | 8 | 4 | 27% |
| 45+ years old | 21 | 35 | 22 | 7 | 9 | 73% |
| Income | ||||||
| $30,000 - $49,999 | 27 | 33 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 17% |
| $50,000 - $99,999 | 26 | 34 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 37% |
| $100,000 - $199,999 | 17 | 28 | 28 | 12 | 7 | 26% |
| Issue regarded as most important | ||||||
| Immigration | 25 | 51 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10% |
| Economy | 15 | 36 | 24 | 13 | 7 | 29% |
| Terrorism | 25 | 31 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 32% |
| Government spending | 25 | 25 | 25 | 8 | 9 | 26% |
| Area type | ||||||
| Urban | 18 | 23 | 31 | 12 | 10 | 23% |
| Suburban | 26 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 48% |
| Rural | 20 | 34 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 29% |
| Religion | ||||||
| Evangelical | 26 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 67% |
| Non-Evangelical | 17 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 33% |
| Veteran household | ||||||
| Yes | 21 | 35 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 17% |
| No | 24 | 31 | 21 | 9 | 8 | 83% |
Analysis
[edit]Donald Trump won the South Carolina primary by ten points. He carried the crucial Evangelical vote with 33% to Cruz at 27% and Rubio at 22%.[115][116] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values.[117]
Marco Rubio, who enjoyed the endorsement of Governor Nikki Haley,[118] came in second in the primary. Rubio won the two urban counties of Richland and Charleston, both of which have a higher percentage of college-educated voters.
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