Finland fell short of its goal to achieve self-sufficiency in electricity production in 2024, despite coming very close in 2023.
According to national grid operator Fingrid, domestic production was unable to meet the country's total electricity demand last year.
In 2024, Finland imported three Terawatt-hours (TWh) more electricity than it exported. This amount is slightly higher than in 2023 when the deficit was only 1.8 TWh. At that time, domestic electricity production covered 98 percent of Finland's total electricity demand.
In 2023, Finland fell slightly short of achieving self-sufficiency, as the 1,600-megawatt Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant began producing electricity for the grid only in late winter.
In 2024, the same plant faced an extended maintenance shutdown, which coincided with a particularly cold spring. Nuclear electricity production was also affected by technical malfunctions. At the end of November, both Olkiluoto 3 and Loviisa 2 were offline for several days.
However, wind power has been steadily increasing in Finland, with wind production records being broken multiple times. The capacity now exceeds 8,000 megawatts, meaning that if all the turbines were running at full capacity, electricity production would exceed that of four Olkiluoto 3 plants.
Shortfall in electricity exports
The main reason Finland fell short of Fingrid's 2024 expectations was surprisingly, issues with cross-border transmission connections. This also contributed to record-low electricity prices throughout the summer.
During the summer, there were significant limitations on electricity transmission between Finland and Sweden due to maintenance and construction work on power lines.
Another important factor was the 650-megawatt EstLink 2 electricity connection between Finland and Estonia, which was out of service from January until early September due to a malfunction.
This is the same transmission connection believed to have been damaged by the tanker Eagle S on Christmas Day. As a result, the EstLink 1 connection, with half the capacity, was used for transmission to Estonia.
During the summer, Finland repeatedly faced situations where there was more than enough electricity to export to neighbouring countries. However, due to cross-border transmission limitations, the "surplus electricity" had to be pushed to the domestic market at zero or negative prices. As a result, production had to be reduced, and both the export and production figures showed a significant electricity shortfall.
"When electricity cannot be exported from Finland and we have a surplus supply, the price drops and even goes negative, making it unprofitable to produce electricity. These transmission connections and their stable operation are crucial for Finland to achieve annual self-sufficiency in electricity production," said Mikko Heikkilä, Head of Strategic Grid Planning at Fingrid.
The graphic shows that in previous years, a much larger proportion of the electricity consumed in Finland was imported from neighbouring countries. Now, Finland produces nearly all of the electricity it consumes domestically.
From 2025 onwards, Fingrid predicts that Finland will be fully self-sufficient in electricity. By 2035, Finland's electricity balance is forecasted to have a surplus of 15 terawatt-hours.
Cable damage could impact forecast
In the past, Finland imported about a fifth, or even a quarter, of the electricity it consumed annually.
"In the coming years, Finland will produce somewhat more electricity than it consumes annually. However, even then, Finland will not always produce the amount of electricity it needs at every moment. When the wind is low or during extreme cold, Finland will still be dependent on imports," said Mikko Heikkilä.
Finland is also not going to become a major electricity exporter, despite the continuous growth in wind and solar power production, he adds.
"Electricity will mainly be used here in Finland because industrial electricity consumption is growing."
However, the forecast for self-sufficiency in the coming year may once again remain an unachievable goal due to the recent cable damage.
"The damage to Estlink 2 will reduce export and import possibilities for several months next year," Heikkilä said.