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2024 Saxony state election

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2024 Saxony state election
← 2019 1 September 2024 2029 →
All 120 seats in the Landtag of Saxony
61 seats needed for a majority
Turnout2,367,607 (74.4%)
Increase 8.2 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
2022-03-28 Michael Kretschmer (cropped).jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–079.jpg
2024-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–034.jpg
Leader Michael Kretschmer Jörg Urban Sabine Zimmermann
Party CDU AfD BSW
Last election 45 seats, 32.1% 38 seats, 27.5% Did not exist
Seats won 41 40 15
Seat change Decrease 4 Increase 2 Increase 15
Popular vote 749,114 719,279 277,568
Percentage 31.9% 30.6% 11.8%
Swing Decrease 0.2 pp Increase 3.1 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
2024-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–020.jpg
2019-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–111.jpg
2024-09-01 Wahlabend Sachsen by Sandro Halank–075.jpg
Susanne Schaper 2023.jpg
Leader Petra Köpping Wolfram Günther &
Katja Meier 		Susanne Schaper
Party SPD Greens Left
Last election 10 seats, 7.7% 12 seats, 8.6% 14 seats, 10.4%
Seats won 10 7 6
Seat change Steady 0 Decrease 5 Decrease 8
Popular vote 172,021 119,980 104,891
Percentage 7.3% 5.1% 4.5%
Swing Decrease 0.4 pp Decrease 3.5 pp Decrease 5.9 pp
  Seventh party
 
FW
Leader Matthias Berger
Party FW
Last election 0 seats, 3.4%
Seats won 1
Seat change Increase 1
Popular vote 53,027
Percentage 2.3%
Swing Decrease 1.1 pp
Results for the single-member constituencies
Government before election

Kretschmer II
CDU–Greens–SPD

Government after election

TBD

The 2024 Saxony state election was held on 1 September 2024 to elect members to the 8th Landtag of Saxony. It was held on the same day as the 2024 Thuringian state election.[1] Going into the election, the state government was led by Michael Kretschmer of the CDU as Minister-President, in a coalition with the Greens and the SPD.

The CDU remained the largest party with slight losses, followed closely by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) which obtained its best ever result. The SPD remained steady while the Greens fell to just over 5% of the vote; the incumbent coalition lost its majority.[2][3][4] The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance ran for the first time and won 12% and fifteen seats. The Left fell below the 5% electoral threshold but retained its representation in the Landtag after winning two direct constituencies. The Free Voters of Saxony (FW) elected a single member after lead candidate Matthias Berger won the constituency of Leipzig-Land III.[5][6]

Background

[edit]

The 2019 election was marked by high gains for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which gained almost 28 percent of the vote and became the second strongest force. After losses, the CDU ended up with almost 32 percent as the strongest party ahead of the AfD. The Left and the SPD received 10.4 and 7.7 percent of the vote, respectively. The Greens increased and achieved their best result in a state election in Saxony with 8.6 percent, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) again missed entering parliament with 4.5 percent.

Parties and lists

[edit]
Party 2019 result Con.
candidates 		List
candidates 		Lead candidate
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 32.1% 60 78 Michael Kretschmer
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 27.5% 60 75 Jörg Urban
The Left (LINKE) 10.4% 60 47 Susanne Schaper
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 8.6% 60 30 Katja Meier
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 7.7% 60 54 Petra Köpping
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4.5% 60 48 Robert Malorny
Free Voters of Saxony (FW) 3.4% 59 33 Matthias Berger
Die PARTEI 1.6% 3 9 Sabine Kuechler
Pirate Party Germany (PIRATEN) 0.3% – 9 Stephanie Henkel
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 0.3% 2 11 Jonas Bialon
Civil Rights Movement Solidarity (BüSo) 0.1% 4 12 Michael Gründler
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) – 39 30 Sabine Zimmermann
Free Saxons (FS) – 35 30 Martin Kohlmann
Values Union (WU) – 5 7 Heiko Petzold
Alliance Germany (BD) – 3 16 Steffen Grosse
Grassroots Democratic Party (dieBasis) – 3 11 David Murcek
Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) – – 7 Thomas Lamowski
V-Partei³ – – 4 Simone Schwarzbach
Action Party for Animal Welfare (Tierschutz hier!) – – 3 Uwe Werner
Other – 13 –

Opinion polls

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		CDU AfD Linke Grüne SPD FDP FW BSW Others Lead
2024 state election 1 Sep 2024 – 31.9 30.6 4.5 5.1 7.3 0.9 2.3 11.8 5.6 1.3
Wahlkreisprognose 26–31 Aug 2024 1,000 33 31 3 5.5 6 – – 13.5 8 2
Forsa 27–29 Aug 2024 1,012 33 31 3 6 7 – – 12 8 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2024 1,973 33 30 4 6 6 – – 12 9 3
INSA 19–23 Aug 2024 1,000 30 32 4 5 6 – 3 15 5 2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2024 1,028 33 30 4 6 7 – – 11 9 3
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2024 1,566 31 30 4 6 7 – – 14 8 1
Wahlkreisprognose 10–18 Aug 2024 1,000 34.5 30 4.5 4.5 5 1 – 14 6.5 4.5
Forsa 7–14 Aug 2024 1,041 33 30 3 6 6 – – 13 9 3
INSA 5–12 Aug 2024 1,500 29 32 5 5 5 2 4 15 3 3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 5–8 Aug 2024 1,003 34 30 4 6 6 – – 11 9 4
Infratest dimap 12–18 Jun 2024 1,157 29 30 3 7 7 – – 15 9 1
INSA 10–17 Jun 2024 1,500 30 32 4 5 5 2 – 15 7 2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 – 21.8 31.8 4.9 5.9 6.9 2.4 2.4 12.6 11.3 10
Civey 19 Mar – 2 Apr 2024 3,002 31 30 5 6 6 3 – 10 9 1
INSA 11–18 Mar 2024 1,000 30 34 5 5 6 2 3 11 4 4
Wahlkreisprognose 6–15 Mar 2024 1,200 31.5 31 3 6.5 6 1.5 – 13.5 7 0.5
Infratest dimap 18–23 Jan 2024 1,177 30 35 4 7 7 – – 8 9 5
Forsa 7–10 Jan 2024 1,507 30 34 6 8 7 3 3 4 8 4
Wahlkreisprognose 2–9 Jan 2024 970 33.5 32 8.5 7 6 2.5 – – 10 1.5
30.5 28.5 6 5.5 5.5 2 – 15.5 6.5 2
Civey 18 Dec – 1 Jan 2024 3,004 33 37 8 7 3 1 – – 11 4
Civey 19 Nov – 3 Dec 2023 3,002 33 33 7 7 7 2 3 – 8 Tie
Wahlkreisprognose 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023 1,173 28.5 32.5 7.5 5.5 8.5 4 – – 13.5 4
27.5 31 4.5 5.5 6 – – 14.5 11 3.5
INSA 11–22 Aug 2023 1,500 29 35 9 6 7 5 – – 9 6
Wahlkreisprognose 8–12 Jun 2023 1,558 30 32.5 9 7 10 5 – – 6.5 2.5
Wahlkreisprognose 16–28 May 2023 987 31 32 9.5 7 9.5 4 – – 7 1
Wahlkreisprognose 18–20 Dec 2022 1,020 29.5 31 8 9.5 10.5 3.5 – – 8 1.5
Wahlkreisprognose 17–19 Sep 2022 1,000 34 30 10 7 7 3 – – 9 4
Wahlkreisprognose 9–15 Jun 2022 1,204 35 28 7.5 9.5 9 3 – – 8 7
Wahlkreisprognose 9–16 May 2022 1,023 33 27 5.5 9.5 12 4 – – 9 6
INSA 1–6 Apr 2022 1,000 25 28 9 9 12 7 3 – 7 3
Wahlkreisprognose 26 Mar – 1 Apr 2022 1,100 29 26.5 6 9 15 5 – – 9.5 2.5
Infratest dimap 17–22 Feb 2022 1,178 27 24 10 8 13 7 3 – 8 3
Wahlkreisprognose 5–12 Oct 2021 1,002 22 25.5 7 9 19 10 – – 7.5 3.5
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 17.2 24.6 9.3 8.6 19.3 11.0 2.3 – 7.7 5.3
INSA 6–13 Sep 2021 1,000 31 26 11 7 11 8 – – 6 5
Infratest dimap 13–18 Aug 2021 1,179 35 21 10 7 11 6 4 – 6 14
INSA 2–9 Aug 2021 1,001 34 25 13 7 8 8 – – 5 9
INSA 18–25 May 2021 1,000 24 26 11 13 6 12 – – 8 2
Wahlkreisprognose 9–17 Dec 2020 – 40 30 9.5 8 7 1.5 – – 4 10
INSA 1–15 Dec 2020 1,008 34 26 11 10 7 5 – – 7 8
Wahlkreisprognose 25 Aug – 3 Sep 2020 – 38 27.5 10 10.5 5 3 2 – 4 10.5
INSA 29 Jun – 2 Jul 2020 1,020 36 26 11 10 7 4 – – 6 10
Wahlkreisprognose 2–9 Jun 2020 – 40 26 8.5 9.5 6 3 1 – 6 14
Wahlkreisprognose 1–5 Apr 2020 – 36.5 29 9 7.5 7.5 4 1.5 – 5 7.5
2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 – 32.1 27.5 10.4 8.6 7.7 4.5 3.4 – 5.8 4.6

Minister-President polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		None/
Unsure 		Lead
Kretschmer
CDU 		Urban
AfD 		Chrupalla
AfD 		Gebhardt
Linke 		Günther
Grüne 		Dulig
SPD 		Zimmermann
BSW
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2024 1,973 70 15 – – – – – 15 55
INSA 19–23 Aug 2024 1,000 45 18 – – – – – 37 27
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2024 1,028 68 13 – – – – – 19 55
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2024 1,566 58 20 – – – – – 22 38
Forsa 7–14 Aug 2024 1,041 50 14 – – – – 2 34 36
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 5–8 Aug 2024 1,003 64 14 – – – – – 22 50
Infratest dimap 12–18 Jun 2024 1,157 58 17 – – – – – 25 41
Wahlkreisprognose 2–9 Jan 2024 970 56 23 – – – – – 21 33
56 – 29 – – – – 15 27
Wahlkreisprognose 31 Oct – 7 Nov 2023 1,173 57 26 – – – – – 17 31
Wahlkreisprognose 8–12 Jun 2023 1,558 45 21 – – – – – 34 24
Wahlkreisprognose 18–20 Dec 2022 1,020 39 24 – 4 3 9 – 21 15

Results

[edit]
PartyParty-listConstituencyTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Christian Democratic Union749,11431.9014805,25734.432741Decrease 3
Alternative for Germany719,27930.6312794,22333.962840Increase 3
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht277,56811.8215148,3616.34015New
Social Democratic Party172,0217.3310144,4256.18010Decrease 1
Alliance 90/The Greens119,9805.115119,0335.0927Decrease 6
The Left104,8914.474149,1246.3826Decrease 8
Free Voters53,0272.260113,0624.8311Increase 1
Free Saxons52,1002.22012,6930.5400Steady 0
Action Party for Animal Welfare23,6061.0100Steady 0
Free Democratic Party20,9950.89033,6501.4400Steady 0
Die PARTEI19,7520.8402,6060.1100Steady 0
Pirate Party6,7720.2900Steady 0
Bündnis Deutschland6,7180.2909720.0400New
Values Union6,4740.2801,8180.0800New
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany4,4860.1907020.0300New
Alliance C4,3700.1900Steady 0
V-Partei33,2830.1400Steady 0
Ecological Democratic Party1,9550.0803210.0100Steady 0
Civil Rights Movement Solidarity1,5820.0707520.0300Steady 0
Team Zastrow6,9880.3000Steady 0
Solutions for our region2,1520.0900Steady 0
Party of Progress2490.0100Steady 0
We Are Leipzig3820.0200Steady 0
Independents2,0400.0900Steady 0
Total2,347,973100.00602,338,810100.0060120–
Valid votes2,347,97399.172,338,81098.78
Invalid/blank votes19,6340.8328,7971.22
Total votes2,367,607100.002,367,607100.00
Registered voters/turnout3,182,68374.393,182,68374.39
Source: wahlen.sachsen.de
  • AfD vote
    AfD vote
  • CDU vote
    CDU vote
  • BSW vote
    BSW vote
  • Linke vote
    Linke vote
  • SPD vote
    SPD vote
  • Green vote
    Green vote

Aftermath

[edit]

The first announcement of the seat distribution, which was early in the morning of 2 September, showed 42 seats for CDU, 41 for AfD, 9 for SPD, and 6 for the Greens. Later in the morning, the state electoral committee announced there had been an error in calculating the seat distribution: one seat was deducted from CDU's and AfD's blocs, and one seat was added to SPD's and Greens' blocs.[7] The committee blamed a software bug that resulted in the 117th through 120th seats being allocated incorrectly. External observers initially speculated that the seat distribution was mistakenly calculated with the D'Hondt method, even though the Sainte-Laguë method was to replace it beginning with this election; administrators denied this and stated it was a coincidence that the incorrect seat distribution matched the D'Hondt method's result.[8][9] Notably, the loss of this one seat denied AfD a Sperrminorität ("blocking minority") that would have given it veto power over certain parliamentary actions requiring a two-thirds majority, such as judicial appointments and constitutional amendments, even if it is not in government.[7]

Saxony has a version of the Grundmandatsklausel ("basic mandate clause") that is present in federal elections, which grants full proportional seating to parties that win two constituency seats even if they do not reach the electoral threshold of 5% of party-list votes. This enabled Die Linke, which received only 4.5% of party-list votes, to win list seats and receive representation in parliament proportionate to its vote share.[10]

Electoral fraud investigations

[edit]

The State Criminal Police Office is prosecuting a case of suspected electoral fraud, in which 111 mail ballots in Dresden, 14 in Radeberg, and one in Dohna had their actual votes pasted over and replaced with votes for the right-wing extremist Free Saxony.[11][12] Initial suspicions were raised after the postal voting district Langebrück-2/Schönborn in Dresden returned an unusually high result of 10.2% of votes for the party, which polled around 2% or less nearly everywhere else in the state.[12] The Dresden and Bautzen electoral committees invalidated all of the modified ballots in their final canvasses of the results on 5 September.[13] The state electoral committee decided this was sufficient and took no further action in its final canvass on 13 September.[14]

Experts from TU Dresden later noticed the neighboring postal voting district Langebrück-1 had returned a similarly unusual figure of 13.4% in June 2024 local elections. Police confirmed that 154 manipulated postal ballots from that election were discovered.[13] Michael Schleinitz, a 44-year-old Free Saxony member from Langebrück who was elected to its district council because of the modified ballots, was suspected of both cases.[11][15][16] Schleinitz was arrested for electoral fraud and unrelated charges of attempted arson on 28 October.[17]

Government formation

[edit]

After the elections in both Thuringia and Saxony, Sahra Wagenknecht, leader of the BSW, stated her preferences to go into a coalition with either the CDU and/or the SPD in an interview with ARD.[6]

Though a right-wing CDU-AfD coalition would have a majority, the national CDU has prohibited any state faction from working with that party. Because of this, the only possible majority coalition within some form of reasonability is between the CDU, BSW and SPD,[18] also known as the “blackberry coalition”.[19][20] This coalition would involve 66 members of the Landtag.

Kretschmer met with Wagenknecht on 9 September "to explore possibilities for constructive political cooperation", with an eye toward beginning negotiations with BSW on the state level. Federal CDU leader Friedrich Merz appealed to nervous party members to trust Kretschmer and Mario Voigt in their respective negotiations, but reiterated that the party would refuse any cooperation or even discussions with AfD.[21] Kretschmer admitted successful government formation would be a "major challenge" but has repeatedly ruled out a minority government.[22][23]

In a speech on 20 September, Merz described a potential coalition including BSW in either Saxony or Thuringia as "very, very, very unlikely", though with a stated goal of keeping AfD out of the Minister-President's office, he did not rule out other forms of cooperation with the party.[24] Exploratory talks between CDU, BSW and SPD began on 23 September.[25][26]

On 17 October, the three parties produced a report on the exploratory talks concluding that "constructive and solution-oriented cooperation for Saxony is possible". The parties' state executive committees will meet to vote on approving further negotiations in the following days.[27] On 25 October, SPD suspended its participation in protest of several BSW MdLs voting with AfD to establish a parliamentary inquiry committee into the state government's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic; they were resumed the following week after discussions among the parties' leadership.[28]

On 5 November, BSW left the talks permanently and declared they had failed, citing that the parties had irreconcilable differences on the topics of state finances, migration and the War in Ukraine. The only possible remaining government is a CDU-led minority government or coalition, though Kretschmer has repeatedly ruled it out. If a Minister-President is not elected in four months after the first sitting of the Landtag (a deadline of 1 February 2025) the state constitution requires a dissolution of the Landtag and new elections.[29]

Despite Kretschmer's previous statements, CDU and SPD leaders announced on 15 November they had begun negotiations toward forming a minority coalition, which are expected to finish within a month. Kretschmer stated there would be a "consultation process" with the other parties before any legislation is introduced to ensure it has enough support to pass. BSW placed a commitment to halting cuts in social-welfare spending and a harder policy toward illegal migration as conditions of supporting the government.[30]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "German elections: Far-right AfD on brink of political earthquake". BBC News. 30 August 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 1 September 2024.
  2. ^ "Far-right AfD wins eastern state in Germany's regional election". Al Jazeera. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
  3. ^ "Success of far-right AfD shows east and west Germany are drifting further apart". The Guardian. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 1 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
  4. ^ "German far right hails 'historic' election victory in east". BBC News. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
  5. ^ Achterberg, Beatrice (2 September 2024). "Landtagswahlen 2024: Koalitionsmöglichkeiten in Sachsen und Thüringen". Neue Zürcher Zeitung (in Swiss High German). ISSN 0376-6829. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
  6. ^ a b "Germany: Thuringia and Saxony elections propel far-right AfD". Deutsche Welle. 1 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
  7. ^ a b Tschirner, Ulrike; Sadeghi, Julian (2 September 2024). "Sperrminorität der AfD: Sitzverteilung in Sachsen könnte falsch berechnet worden sein" [AfD blocking minority: Seat distribution in Saxony may have been incorrectly calculated]. Die Zeit (in German). Archived from the original on 2 September 2024.
  8. ^ Thust, Sarah (6 September 2024). "Softwarefehler bei der Landtagswahl in Sachsen: Was hinter der Korrektur der Sitzverteilung steckt" [Software errors in the state election in Saxony: What is behind the correction of the seat distribution]. correctiv.org (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2024.
  9. ^ "Landtagswahl in Sachsen am 1. September 2024". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Archived from the original on 5 September 2024.
  10. ^ "Wahlsystem Landtagswahl Sachsen 2024". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2024.
  11. ^ a b "Ermittlungen gegen 44-Jährigen wegen Wahlfälschung in Dresden". www.mdr.de (in German). 13 September 2024. Archived from the original on 13 September 2024.
  12. ^ a b "Kreuze für Rechtextreme: Dresden untersucht mögliche Wahlfälschung auf Stimmzetteln" [Crosses for right-wing extremists: Dresden investigates possible election fraud on ballot papers]. Der Spiegel (in German). 3 September 2024. Archived from the original on 3 September 2024.
  13. ^ a b "Manipulierte Wahlzettel: Wahlauschüsse tagen in Dresden und Radeberg" [Manipulated ballot papers: Election committees meet in Dresden and Radeberg]. MDR Aktuell (in German). Archived from the original on 6 September 2024.
  14. ^ "Landtagswahl 2024: Endgültiges amtliches Wahlergebnis" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 13 September 2024.
  15. ^ "LKA Sachsen übernimmt Ermittlungen zu manipulierten Stimmzetteln" [LKA Saxony takes over investigations into manipulated ballot papers]. tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 3 September 2024.
  16. ^ "Wegen Wahlbetrug in Dresden werden Neuwahlen gefordert". www.saechsische.de (in German). Archived from the original on 16 September 2024.
  17. ^ "Festnahme: Verdächtigter Wahlfälscher in Dresden soll auch Brandstifter sein". mdr.de (in German). 28 October 2024.
  18. ^ "Landeswahlleiter in Sachsen will Ergebnis überprüfen: Landtagswahlen in Thüringen und Sachsen im Liveticker". FAZ (in German). 2 September 2024. Archived from the original on 2 September 2024. Retrieved 2 September 2024.
  19. ^ ""Brombeer"-Koalition: Was der Begriff bedeutet und wer ihn erfunden hat". Sächsische Zeitung (in German). Archived from the original on 3 September 2024. Retrieved 3 September 2024.
  20. ^ "Bekommt Thüringen eine links tolerierte Brombeer-Koalition?". MDR Aktuell (in German). Archived from the original on 5 September 2024. Retrieved 5 September 2024.
  21. ^ "Nach Landtagswahlen in Sachsen: Kretschmer trifft sich zum Gespräch mit Wagenknecht". Der Spiegel (in German). 9 September 2024. Archived from the original on 9 September 2024.
  22. ^ "CDU und BSW in Sachsen: Kretschmer stimmt versöhnliche Töne an". www.diesachsen.de (in German). Archived from the original on 20 September 2024.
  23. ^ "Sachsen: Kretschmers Annäherung an Wagenknecht" (in German). 10 September 2024. Archived from the original on 10 September 2024.
  24. ^ "Merz hält Koalition mit BSW in Ländern für unwahrscheinlich". tagesschau.de (in German). Archived from the original on 20 September 2024.
  25. ^ "Mögliche Koalition in Sachsen? CDU, BSW und SPD vereinbaren weitere Gespräche". MDR (in German). 24 September 2024. Archived from the original on 24 September 2024.
  26. ^ "Landtags-Vize: BSW- und SPD-Kandidaten fallen zunächst durch". www.diesachsen.de (in German). 1 October 2024. Archived from the original on 1 October 2024.
  27. ^ "Gemeinsames Papier: CDU, BSW und SPD einigen sich auf Verhandlungsgrundlage". MDR (in German). 17 October 2024.
  28. ^ "Sachsen: SPD unterbricht Sondierungsgespräche - weil BSW für AfD-Antrag stimmte". Der Spiegel (in German). 25 October 2024.
  29. ^ "BSW, SPD, CDU: Regierungsbildung in Sachsen gescheitert". Der Spiegel (in German). 6 November 2024.
  30. ^ "Konsultationsverfahren soll Sachsen regierungsfähig machen". mdr.de (in German). 15 November 2024.
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