March 1st, 2020
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The box office had mixed results during February with Birds of Prey missing expectations by a huge margin, but Sonic the Hedgehog did well enough to almost make up the difference. This March, there are three films that will almost certainly reach $100 million domestically: Onward, A Quiet Place: Part II, and Mulan. In fact, all three at least have a slim shot at $200 million domestically. By comparison, last March Captain Marvel was released, which earned more than $400 million, while Us and Dumbo earned close to $300 million combined. I don’t think the top three films this year will match last year’s top three, or even come particularly close, and I fear 2020 will fall behind 2019 in the year-over-year comparison. So much for that lead 2020 built up in January.
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March 27th, 2017
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is the first in a series of standalone movies movies Disney is planning for the Star Wars franchise. There were some who questioned whether or not audiences would show up to a Star Wars movie if it wasn’t directly part of the overall story. Turns out the answer to that question is yes, to the tune of over $1 billion worldwide. This was nearly 50% less than The Force Awakens earned, but is it also much weaker in terms of quality?
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January 1st, 2017
December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 1st, 2016
November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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September 19th, 2014
It's an overly busy week for limited releases with nearly two-dozen films on this week's list. There are a number of films on this week's list that are earning outstanding reviews, like 20,000 Days on Earth, or strong buzz, like The Zero Theorem. But there are not a lot earning both. Films like Stop the Pounding Heart or The Guest will likely not live up to their Tomatometer Scores. Tracks is probably the film with the best chance at breakout success.
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March 7th, 2014
This week the list of limited releases includes The Grand Budapest Hotel, which is earning amazing buzz and arguably better reviews. It will likely dominate the per theater chart so much so that the rest of the films might suffer as as result. This would be too bad, because there are several other films that deserve to find an audience. Grand Piano and In Fear are both earning great reviews, but as horror films playing on Video on Demand, their box office numbers will be nothing more than an afterthought. There are also a couple of comedies I'm interested in seeing, Journey To The West and No Clue, although the latter is only playing in Canada.
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November 11th, 2013
There are a number of good releases this week. The two biggest releases are Man of Steel and Turbo. While the former has a larger target audience, the latter is the better film. It is still not Pick of the Week material. The best films are some of the smaller releases, like The Attack, Barbara, Blackfish, City Lights, and Prince Avalanche. All of those are worth picking up, but I think Nosferatu on Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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