Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 20, 2025

Media

Europe

Russia

Podcasts

Economics

Politics

How will these changes affect European countries?


Essential Geopolitics: The United States' Evolving Relationship With Russia

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Smoke billows during Israeli strikes west of Gaza City on March 18, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

In the coming days and weeks, Israel will likely carry out phased escalations and de-escalations to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining hostages, returning Gaza to war by effectively collapsing the January ceasefire.

Large-Scale Israeli Airstrikes Plunge Gaza Back Into an Open-Ended Conflict

Iran

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A rally on Jan. 24 in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen. Should the United States attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Houthi rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.

Energy

Should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations. 

U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry

U.S.-Iran Relations

Lebanon

U.N. Satellite Center cultural heritage analyst Michelle de Gruchy gestures next to a map of Beirut, Lebanon, during a press conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on monitoring damage to cultural heritage in Lebanon and Gaza on Nov. 25, 2024.

While Lebanon's renewed negotiations with the IMF may yield a draft agreement, a fragmented parliament will likely prevent Lebanon from implementing key economic reforms and unlocking significant aid.

Despite New IMF Negotiations, Lebanon's Economic Crisis Rages On

Columns

On Geopolitics

Canada

Mexico

China

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, after announcing that tariffs could be imposed on Canadian dairy and lumber products within days. 

Global Trade

The expanding scope of Trump's trade wars, coupled with the whiplash of tariffs being enacted and then suspended, begs the question: what is driving this strategy and what, if anything, will constrain it?

Trump's Emerging Trade Doctrine

U.S.-China Relations

Ethiopia

Germany

Ukraine

Reichstag in Berlin with flags.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Russia Contacts on a Ukraine Ceasefire, a Vote on Reforming Germany’s Debt Brake

Snapshots

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While a ceasefire appears increasingly likely, Russia will likely delay a deal to secure more concessions related to Western military support, a potential peacekeeping force in Ukraine, and Kyiv's NATO aspirations.

How Will Russia Respond to the U.S.-Proposed Ceasefire in Ukraine?

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Milorad Dodik, leader of the most influential political party in the Bosnian-Serb dominated entity of Republika Srpska, on Oct. 27, 2022.

The arrest will test Bosnia's fragile institutional order amid rising regional and global instability, fueling concerns of a potential spillover of unrest across the Western Balkans.

The Arrest of a Serbian Official Puts Bosnian -- and Regional -- Stability to the Test

Philippines

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025. 

The ex-president's high-profile arrest risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around May midterm elections, which will influence the country's foreign policy trajectory.

In the Phillippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections

A photo taken on Jan. 15, 2025, shows a muddy track running through a forest in Sumy, Ukraine, that Ukrainian soldiers use to transport American Stryker armored fighting vehicles during Ukraine's ongoing cross-border operation into Russia's Kursk region.

Intensified Russian attacks will likely soon force Ukrainian troops to exit Russia's Kursk border region, which could make Moscow more open to ceasefire talks by weakening Kyiv's negotiating leverage.

Ukraine's Withdrawal From Kursk Appears Imminent Amid Russian Advances

Latest

Turkey

People wave Turkish national flags as they protest in Istanbul on March 20, 2025, following Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's detention over a corruption probe.

The charismatic Istanbul mayor's detention will likely trigger protests and further undermine his party's ability to challenge Erdogan and the AKP in the 2028 presidential election.

In Turkey, Imamoglu's Arrest Dims the Opposition's Presidential Prospects

Spain

Spanish soldiers sit at tables at a makeshift military base in Valencia, eastern Spain, on Nov. 12, 2024, following deadly floods in the region.

Domestic political constraints will impede Madrid's ability to expand its defense budget, which will expose it to U.S. retaliation and limit Spanish participation in any European deployment to Ukraine.

Despite Recent Pledges, Spain Will Struggle To Boost Military Spending

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa arrives at a briefing at his African National Congress (ANC) party's headquarters in Johannesburg on May 13, 2024.

Social Issues

South Africa will struggle to meet Trump's demands for major foreign and domestic policy changes, which will risk exposing the country to disruptive U.S. economic retaliation, including entity-based sanctions.

Trump Turns Up the Heat on South Africa

Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz addresses the Bundestag on March 18, 2025, before a vote on changes to the country's constitutional debt limits.

The historic reform will allow for increased investment and higher defense spending, which will help raise medium-term economic growth in both Germany and the euro area. 

The Economic Impact of Germany's Debt Brake Reform

Argentina

The headquarters of Argentina's central bank is seen in Buenos Aires on Feb. 20, 2025.

A new IMF program would improve Argentina's short- and medium-term economic and financial outlook in the face of limited international financial market access and negative foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina's Milei Signs Decree To Clear the Way for a New IMF Deal

U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan and National Security Advisor Mosaad bin Mohammad al-Aiban, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, Ukrainian Head of Presidential Office Andriy Yermak and Ukrainian Minister of Defense Rustem Umerovto attend a meeting between the US and Ukraine hosted by the Saudis on March 11, 2025 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-backed 30-day ceasefire with Russia, but its success depends on Moscow's acceptance and broader unresolved issues.

Temporary Truce in Sight? U.S. and Ukraine Push for 30-Day Ceasefire with Russia

Romania

Supporters of the far-right Romanian politician Calin Georgescu take part in an anti-government protest in Bucharest on March 1, 2025. 

Georgescu's disqualification will worsen Romania's increasingly polarized political climate, heightening the risk of violent protests and strengthening alternative far-right candidates in the May election rerun.

Romania's Political Crisis Worsens After Far-Right Candidate Barred From Presidential Rerun

A German flag flies above the Reichstag, the building that houses the Bundestag, on July 23, 2022, in Berlin. 

If approved, the constitutional reforms and unprecedented fiscal stimulus would unlock massive military spending and revitalize the German economy. 

German Parties Propose a Historic Overhaul of Spending, Defense Policies

U.S. policy shifts under Trump and China's ongoing economic malaise will leave highly indebted, low-income countries at greater risk of financial and political distress over the next year.

U.S. and Chinese Economic Uncertainty Worsen the Global Macro Environment

A digital map illustration of Russia.

The White House believes that restoring ties with Moscow will help it negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine and, more importantly, undermine Russia-China relations in the long run. But numerous potential pitfalls mean this approach is unlikely to pay off.

The Rationale and Risks of Trump's Push to Reengage With Russia

A map of the United States from 1897. While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

While a revisionist America could lead to a more stable world order, it would be much more likely to lead to greater uncertainty, volatility, and conflict.

What a Revisionist U.S. Foreign Policy Could Mean for the World

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Syria

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

South Korea

Taiwan

Vietnam

India

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

Vietnam plans to fundamentally restructure its administrative localities, reducing its 63 provinces and centrally run cities by about 50%, districts by 100%, and communes and wards by 60% to 70%, Bao Chinh Phu reported on March 20.

Vietnam: Hanoi Proceeding With Major Administrative Restructuring

China has executed four Canadian dual nationals thus far in 2025, all on unspecified drug-related charges, AP reported on March 19.

China, Canada: Ottawa Reveals Beijing's Executions of Four Dual Nationals This Year

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Alliance for the Congo River, or AFC, a politico-military alliance led by the Rwandan-backed M23, captured the town of Walikale in the western part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo's eastern North Kivu province, Reuters reported on March 20. 

Congo: AFC/M23 Edges Closer to Central Congo Despite Ceasefire Announcement   

The U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (Luqing Petrochemical), a small Chinese "teapot" oil refinery in Shandong that operates independently of the Chinese state, and its CEO over buying and refining "hundreds of millions of dollars" worth of Iranian oil, OFAC said in a March 20 press release. 

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

South Sudan

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir dismissed Upper Nile state Gov. James Odhok Oyay and appointed Gen. James Koang Chuol as his replacement following clashes between security forces loyal to Kiir and the White Army, a militia accused of affiliating with Vice President Riek Machar, Sudans Post reported on March 19. 

South Sudan: President Sacks Upper Nile Governor, Further Violating Peace Agreement

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that Tigray's Interim Regional Administration would serve for another year but that changes could be made to its leadership, Addis Standard reported March 20. 

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Abiy Hints at Leadership Changes in Tigray 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

A North Dakota jury found environmental protection group Greenpeace liable for defamation, trespass, nuisance, civil conspiracy and other acts over protests in 2016 and 2017 against the Dakota Access Pipeline, ordering Greenpeace to pay more than $600 million in damages to pipeline developer Energy Transfer, AP reported on March 19.

U.S.: Greenpeace Ordered To Pay $660M in Damages Over Dakota Access Pipeline Defamation Case

Hamas fired three rockets from southern Gaza toward Tel Aviv, with one intercepted and two landing in open areas, in retaliation for March 18 Israeli airstrikes that reportedly killed over 400 Palestinians, according to Hamas-run Palestinian health authorities, Times of Israel reported March 20. 

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas, Houthis Attack Israel Amid Expanding Israeli Military Operations in Gaza

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Qatar

The presidents of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda met in Doha, Qatar, for the first time since the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group captured Congo's eastern cities of Goma and Bukavu earlier this year, a statement by Qatar’s foreign ministry read on March 18. 

Rwanda, Congo: Presidential Meeting in Qatar Bodes Well for Peace Talks

Bangladesh

India is refusing Bangladesh's requests to restore the regular issuance of medical visas, citing staffing shortages and strained bilateral relations, Reuters reported on March 19.

India, Bangladesh: India's Restrictions on Bangladeshi Medical Visas Create Opportunity for China

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

In Turkey, Imamoglu's Arrest Dims the Opposition's Presidential Prospects

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Vietnam: Hanoi Proceeding With Major Administrative Restructuring

China, Canada: Ottawa Reveals Beijing's Executions of Four Dual Nationals This Year

Congo: AFC/M23 Edges Closer to Central Congo Despite Ceasefire Announcement

China: U.S. Sanctions Chinese 'Teapot' Oil Refiner Over Iran for First Time

South Sudan: President Sacks Upper Nile Governor, Further Violating Peace Agreement

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Abiy Hints at Leadership Changes in Tigray

U.S.: Greenpeace Ordered To Pay $660M in Damages Over Dakota Access Pipeline Defamation Case

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas, Houthis Attack Israel Amid Expanding Israeli Military Operations in Gaza

Rwanda, Congo: Presidential Meeting in Qatar Bodes Well for Peace Talks

India, Bangladesh: India's Restrictions on Bangladeshi Medical Visas Create Opportunity for China

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support